Typhoon Tip

ICON gets steady light snow to CT/RI …moderate PHL-NYC

Yeah, I agree… I said something about that several hours ago in a post; so much power in that jet core going under Long Island. It’s really like it’s playing with fire. If that thing just giga moves slightly in the north direction or whatever it could mean the difference between, 5 inches up to Hartford in heartbeat I’ll tell you … models obsessed with stretching out everything from West east the whole thing is pancaked

Are folks waiting on a big dawg ? I mean a light to perhaps moderate event for Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New York City… it’s already interesting - to me anyway. It just seems like people aren’t interested unless it’s maximum dosage. Ha ha.seriously though.

yah... uh, that thing at the end of the week is unfortunately ( for deterministic efforts) still sensy. The stream/mechanical interaction between the failed subsumption scenario while still S/W wind max potency running under LI could ..."accidentally" snow 4 or 5" down there. If these players are still tussling tomorrow night in the guidance, it may almost be a now cast effort - these global models corrected to a light to moderate impactor here in the interior with this thing today with only 24 hours to spare. Erstwhile clean whiffs - it's an apple to oranges system comparison but just shows what can happen when the flow is complexly sensitive. Something about this 10 day window of the risk assessing has been unusually like that. interesting... Other than that, ...kind of hard to run a warm blast with two SWFE opportunities out there -

4.5" is my tentative total. We have moderate pixie dust though... Kicked in when the rad said it all kick out. Under the radar probably the warm layer being stranded and it's now cooling and there's some dust growth near the top of the boundary later. But it's making windshields milky white with the consistency of chalk 20.5" on the season 24F

Really interested in how/why the Euro and GFS did so poorly with this even even when < 96 hours.

3", then switched to IP at varying fall rates about an hour and half ago. 25F 19 on the season

This is one of the reason I don't engage in seasonal forecasting for this social media - or anywhere. I wouldn't bother with "snow forecast" ... I find it to be a bit wishy casty If we wanted to focus instead upon the governing aspects that drive temperature anomaly distribution - that can be more readily and correlative -connectable to pattern tendencies; an area where I feel I personally excel ... but I'm not trying to go there ... Point being, if the temperature forecast were BN and the precipitation ( also more connectable but sans any mention of ptype) is AN. Then "odds are" it snows more so that year than if it were AN and BN for those two basic metrics, respectively. Just say AN, N, or BN for precipiation, and because it is AN(BN) in temperature ...etc, and leave it at that.

Can’t get any heavier or it’ll dynamically punch through such a thin layer of warmth along the northwest edge, collapsing back southeast during heavy fall rates – if it gets heavier. It’s really pretty much right at the threshold.

Might be the best REG solution I've seen for BDL - ASH ... That looks like a 6.5" 20 mile either side of that line... particularly up toward ASH and beyond

Okay, ...lunch-time Quarter Backing the end of the week ordeal. I am not totally sure the following hasn't escaped folks' thought processing, but ... we do not have to have idealized subsume phasing and a bomb in order to get a fun/entertaining event for winter enthusiasts. There are plenty of mechanics in play ... the likes of which would not take a lot of unrealistic rearranging to ignite an event ranging from light ( but steady) to moderate/low end major. None of the events within that envelope of possibilities should be ruled out. 1 Very powerful jet core running 1.5 or so deg S of LI is a huge wintertime climate flag for QPF in SNE/CNE. 2 The other aspect that's puzzling to me is ... the period of time in questions seems to either need to be an all out big bird bomb, or, whiff. I'm not sure when factoring in both 1 ... why we are not seeing at least occasional model depictions for a middling event that encompasses up state NY/S-CNE. Perhaps more a philosophical angle on this thing with this point ... but, we seem to be missing that probability set/result in these modeling projects - in fact, I think I've yet to see a 6-8" ALB-BOS/CON result even once - maybe I missed, but that's been rare to this point, nonetheless. Point number 1 screams for it. So I'm prepared to think we just sans the big dawg prospect - in no small part based upon the limitations I spent time explaining yesterday ... - in lieu of the very real probability that a moderate event will materialize out of that mess.

OH, gotcha - different context

why I be damned ... the 12z GFS appears to lay in .75" QPF in a frozen column for N ORH CO and S NH... That puts the eastern end of the Rt 2 corridor in a warning event - low end anywho sorry if I'm behind a little -

why I be damned ... the 12z GFS appears to lay in .75" QPF in a frozen column for N ORH CO and S NH... That puts the eastern end of the Rt 2 corridor in a warning event - low end anywho ...Oops! wrong thread

what do we mean by closed off? I see 3 or 4 pressure contours and going below 999 mb by the time this is passing near the Islands down here. I'm not sure I get that sentiment. I think the storm is intensifying in general after leaving SNE influence - sure. That's typical though. It's really just a typical coastal storm, down the scale. We can quibble over idiosyncrasies that look distracting but I see 12 hours of NE wind at LGA to BOS with .3 to .5 QPF in the column, with as I said, ...closed surface contours. Not every storm is 980 haha. I wish

Oh, you're doing better up there than down here - not that it's a competition heh. But I outlined earlier that there's conceptual aspects related to the mid and upper jet mechanics that might enhance a band or two down our way. That's speculation -

Yeah, I mean I'm just interpreting that RGEM run. One thing we're all overlooking is that there's an absence of meaningful +PP N of the region... Even in the weak-side structure of this event, there's enough thrust to draw a pesky mix zone pretty far into CT and SE Ma.... I think other's have mentioned that it may ping or flip for a minute even in the BDL-ASH region - .. unsure

orbital interpretation probably a 6" stripe BDL-ASH that fans and spreads laterally going N, with a stripe of 8-10" emerging along the way

I wonder if someone uttered that sentiment on the day before Dec 23 1997 LOL

For the Mets ... noting the 200 and 300 mb jet overlays, with the arrival of the 500 mb max - that should be a favorable region for mid level forcing - it may be why we are seeing at least light QPF layout extending so far NW into eastern upstate NY and VT, but that could also be an indication of some sneaky banding with higher returns occurring down here where the right exit region of the 500 mb is arriving underneath those upper air difluence channeling. The 300 mb wind is 175kts in the Euro and GFS ( now that they've put down the glue ... we can check their fields!)

Heh, not that anything I say is worth a shit or should be heeded therein ... but, I did write it clearly in the title to cap this thing at moderate, also intimating that the impact is unknown - I didn't see enough consistency ( to be honest ) "7-10 days ago" that made 10" confident enough for a ceiling that high. I guess there's some interpretation/subjectivity as to what is low, moderate, vs major. When I was but a Meteorological pupa, 4-6" was considered a low event, followed by 6-10", followed by 10+" respectively. I guess I could be more clear about that range in the future... But 7-10 days ago, this only had a medium suggestion in the numerical telecons ... So, we were - or I was ... - in wait of the operational runs to begin materializing what the numerical suggested should be there - so ... we got some "sporadic" runs with that emergence. I was seeing poor continuity, as implied by sporadic, though. Also, with the speed of the flow tending to stretch/shear events et al - not sure where those concepts meant 8-14" ( major) and a higher ceiling would be warranted - ...

This thing has a huge upside to it. But like Four seasons and I were just discussing it kind of lacks the mid and upper level mechanics to get to that top shelf. But the upshot is there, because there is so much explosive potential along/just off eastern seaboard; it really is incredible how much potential is there but not being tapped. Evidenced by spinning up a low end moderate event out of weak triggers - I mean there is some jet going on. But the indexes flagged this for a reason so here we are. Fascinating

Yaha it was my phone … almost opted to leave it in there

Yeah, I was looking at that… What’s funny about that, even though it came northwest it was still a decent hit before relative to what’s on the table…

I think part of the problem is that the majority this event is being driven by low level instability along that very intense bclinic axis. Remember we’re dropping in an arctic air mass/boundary and it’s gonna stall in that area …there’s a lot of Explosive potential there. The problem is is that the global models probably don’t have the lower level resolution while waiting on upper level mechanics … Doesn’t explain why being closer to it in time suddenly makes that all visible but… We’ve seen this in the past where mesos score around these intense gradients.