Typhoon Tip

You know what this reminds me of a bit ? In 2003 ( I think it was...), I was living in Winchester, MA. There was a lakes cutter and southerly warm gale event ... wanna say Dec 2nd or so... then two days later, we had a front go through with some rain and snow showers mixed and it got intermediate colder. Then a day or so later, morning WINDEX squalls strafed with very low visibility and temps crashing from mid or upper 30s into the 20s. About 1-2" is all they laid down, but... I-95 between Danvers and the Bedford curves became 10 miles of stand still gridlock. It became a headline news thing over 1-2" of snow flash freezing... 3 days later the Dec 5-7 event

Huge change in the member depiction, too... There's likely some members in there that are more like the 12z still - and are overcoming the speed of the flow

oh I don't care who says it first. ha. Anyway, the 18z GEFs just went some 10 to as much as 12 dm deeper with the non-hydrostatic height depth leaving the M/A with the 20th compared to the 12z ... I'd call that a pretty significant adjustment considering the entire synoptic manifold is involved here - the impetus here being the trend

ah, you beat me to it, Brian - yup

haha... sorry it was an inside comment to Will - he knows. Basically...the physics in the model "sense" that there should a low there - produce one incompletely, is what happening. If this was more proficiently phasing, that would probably be the "real" low, and it would be a much bigger ordeal there. It's good in the sense that it's possible still? But I'm not sure we are going to slow things down enough... the 12z guidance did seem to slow a fraction and almost immediately we saw a better performance.

I'ya I'm just gonna tutor y'all 'bout how this subsume shit works. The X coordinate S/W translation speed ( not the same as the wind flowing through the medium - whole 'nother headache), needs to be as close to the same translation speed as the Y coordinate of the severing SPV fragment/N/stream tucking into the back side. Those deltas need to = 1 as closely as possible... Nothing in the atmosphere is ever perfect... but ...get that up 70 .. 80% and you turn a pedestrian system into bombogenesis potential. All you have to do is find the best perceived center mass of the N/stream, and click a couple intervals, and measure the N-->S distance/time ... that equals your dy/dt. Do the same for the S/stream dx/dt, or W-->E. The ratio of these in this case is about 1.5 . that's just too fast in the southern component ... But just looking at the synoptics? yeah, you can see how the SPV/N/stream collapses in but it's chasing and not actually 'catching' the S/W wave space - it escapes east as a shearing stretched out weaker system.

We're getting the old placeholder anchor low extending west, though

Fwiw - ICON came back and embarrassed some posters - if they're capable of shame sorry just a little agitated more than normal

should be a 'scorched earth' policy in effect when people can't control themselves. hard to believe these are 30 40 50 ... 70 year-olds we're talking about but oh well. starting to suspect there's a raw competency limitation that we're far underselling - it's not that people's expectations about storms get too high, it is that we the thread writers and discussions purveyors have too high of expectation in the audience that's in the room - I dunno. some of you just need to shut the fuck up and leave

Huh... really does feel like a cool spring vibe out there. Even smells like it ... like a misty day during mud season, circa late March. Just noticed a broken squall line of low toppers forming west of Worcester

think you're mistaking me with someone else there. just nailed the one last week from 7 days out - hello.... secondly? i don't care about people's paranoia. lol. seriously I don't. i start threads for interesting periods/event - which in the winter ... just about anything qualifies as better than sitting around waiting in 40 F dim sloped sun over bare earth. i will add this ... there's some memory fabrication going on, most likely. people need to appease this addiction to seeing big blue gpf bombs on illustrated guidance and so, if that doesn't materialize in the guidance after a thread is posted ... there's this associated of that discomfort to the thread poster - which is as ludicrous and unfair as what ya'll do to your selves waiting on d-drip in the first place. i don't ever own any responsibility to that. plus, it is also pretty clear that the content of the thread starters are seldom read with comprehension, because there are often plenty of qualifiers in that should/could be used to temper confidence and or impact expectations.

yeah I mean I did set the ceiling on this to be moderate for a reason. At the time ...we're (unfortunate to higher end proficiency) modeling a fast velocity soaked pattern. I asked Will if we should go ahead and switch the title of this thread to include both event - they are sort of indirectly effecting, because the SPV that subsumes in the 20th is in fact part of the suppression of this leading system. Complex -

yeah.. agreed. Adding to this 'interest,' the 12z Reginald was a reasonably good continuity from the 06z ...

Will I dunno, do you want to just merge this into the 20th? Originally I wanted to keep these separate but the two events are 3 days apart and the temptation is maybe too much to ask ... Both events are in fact nested in the same signal. The con is that they are distinctly different. The 17th is off the boards, and the 20th,... being a subsume phase potential and so forth ( which the 17th bears no likeness to), it's not apples to apples. But maybe for convenience we can change the title to 'monitoring 2 potential impactors in close timing' or something?

Yeah... it's not the first time that a mid range cyclone degenerated into an isentropic lift scenario - think of warm advection bursts as the intermediate scaled amplitude between no-go and a well/better formed cyclonic storm. Frankly, I put what we've just witnessed over the last 24 hours of rug pulling as clear model attenuation phenomenon. I suspect I know the cause. I'll repeat here what I wrote to Scott (for commiseration) over in the January thread, because it was in regards to this event ( and the 20th for that matter) "There's too much compression in the heights through the integrated manifold, between 70 N and 35N ... over the eastern continent. The flow is physically speeding up as anything attempts to inject into that region ( you know this - just commiserating here...), and that acceleration is absorbing the native mechanics of any S/W ... If the S/W can't impose it's own forcing in the field, no storm. Instead, we end up with models being dense ( stupid ...) about the speed of the flow and having to then speed it up. They have to destroy their own cyclogen parametric/resulting design, as the mid range torpid flows become realistically bombastic in the nearer terms." Credit the Euro so far for "seeing" attenuation before the GFS. I did mention either very early in this thread, or just prior to starting this thread over in the January one, that 'one way to overcome the Miami rule is to have the embedded S/W be very powerful' - over the last 24 hours that power has attenuated. That's just it. Having said that, I've noticed that some meso models are punching a WAA burst over at least a weak cyclone, closer in from over night and continuing this morning. I don't believe this event or thread is completely baseless at this point in time. Cyclogen coherency ... pehraps decays toward the isentropic type of event. We should also note that the thread title clearly states to ceiling this at moderate - sometimes it helps to really read and learn the 'intent' so we don't dial up our expectations.

Not to be a dick ( seriously ) but this has never impressed me so much when that happens. As we move from autumns into winters ... often enough the first cold intrusions are provided by a -EPO. Half of which plumb heights down dramatically W of 100 W. That type of scenario drills cold west first - probably happens more times than we may think (historically), from mid Novies to early January?

In a transitive ( non- linear influence) sense of it ... GOOD! Because I've become leery over the last 24 hours that this -NAO is causing problems with our two events, the 16th and the 20th. There's too much compression in the heights through the integrated manifold, between 70 N and 35N ... over the eastern continent. The flow is physically speeding up as anything attempts to inject into that region ( you know this - just commiserating here...), and that acceleration is absorbing the native mechanics of any S/W ... If the S/W can't impose it's own forcing in the field, no storm. Instead, we end up with models being dense ( stupid ...) about the speed of the flow and having to then speed it up. They have to destroy their own cyclogen parametric/resulting design, as the mid range torpid flows become realistically bombastic in the nearer terms. These models are perfect for prick tease as a technology when it comes to this weather model cinema for joy engagement. LOL

Fun article ( in a not so ha-ha way) below. Tfwiw - "2023's record heat partly driven by 'mystery' process: NASA scientist" "...It wasn't just a record. It was a record that broke the previous record by a record margin...." It does beg for a deeper causality explanation than can really be offered given the present day manifold of scientific knowledge. Personally I'm inclined to think this "emergent property" we just witnessed is no different than what happens in every complex physical system that exists inside the realm of universal reality. The more complex the system, there more potential there is for "unintended consequences" - they spontaneously emerge as non linearity (byproduct forces that only exist because two or more linear forces are interacting) becomes sufficiently large enough to abruptly accelerate an observable expression in the field. Because of their erstwhile inherently elusive existence, that bursting forth seems to come from nowhere. The possibility of unintended consequence, or emergent properties is well enough hinted in Schmidt's later omission, "...It may be that El Niño is enough. But if I look at all of the other El Ninos that we've had, none of them did this. So either this El Niño is really super special, or the atmosphere is responding to this El Niño in a very special way. Or there's something else going on. And nobody has yet really narrowed these possibilities..." Heh... come to wonder, a primordial less evolved human mind might even think of it as God-like. https://phys.org/news/2024-01-driven-mystery-nasa-scientist.html

That would be really neat to experience one of those again. I've seen that happen in the Great Lakes growing up and once or twice here. Sky gets inky dark and there's even a bit of arcus/shelf cloud and a gust front.... big rain drops ( cat paws really) with a rumble of thunder then somewhere mid way through the squall ... flashes over to aggregates and the visibility tanks. it's weird and really amazing

i think this winter was destined to up and downs, anyway.

it's deeper than just trolling ... yes there are those too - of course... but i believe there's a kind of escapism realm that is sought, and it sounds some where between fascinating, odd and just plain sick, but using these computer model cinemas and the emotional surge they trigger, as the boundaries of that realm... something like that? interesting

Just keep in mind... when the 16th was at this 21st range in the Euro, it placed a 961 mb low on ACK .... now it's a tooth pull to get the front off shore even kink in that model. It may be that this scenario on the 20/21st, being inherently different total synoptic framing, is just something the Euro will handle better than the 17th... sure. But, that's too speculative - how much sense is it allowing d-drip with the so much continuity.

there's been a lot of suggestion toward subsumption phase type - that's just when a S/stream interloping S/W creates a 'place holder' and then the N/stream ( usually the western end of a decaying SPV) fractures and dives in to "eat"/absorbs the S/stream ... the real world expression of that is a deep cyclone resulting - usually exceeding the climate low depth ... This 12z Euro run is repeating the suggestive leitmotif - but... you can clearly see that speed of the flow is stressing it's ability to phase. The S/stream alllllllmost out paces the interaction domain but just get's caught. But in being stressed it's not as proficient at triggering the deeper solution - though as is, the fight results in some 30 hours of persistent light to moderate snow and strengthening NE wind so... 6 /a dozen

the continuity fluctuations are wildly large by this model - spectacularly unlike it for < D5

same philosophy - for now... I mean, even with 15 or so % of the momentum appeal being less on this run, the model is placing it's low outside the cross hairs of either exit regions of the jet core, which is still impressive enough and torpedoing by to the NW ... ...preeeetty sure it did that just because it's trolling us lol. j/k. seriously though