Typhoon Tip

yeah ha that's a good point. through all of this... kind of needle threading the available cold air when there's limited +PP situated N of the region, huh -

It's just missing it/or less in the same time and space, yeah. Closer analysis ( because I like giving myself migraines apparently... ), it does have an intermediate region wind max at hour 54 though/ about 12 hours faster as a single run correction unto itself - it could be that this run just moved it ahead - that position change then lowers the proficiency of phasing and lends to an eventual "weak saucer" as an option.

yeah... this run of the ICON ( actually, I'm not sure I ultimately feel secure in talking like this model is worth it, but - ) may be like the "floor" event when sans a more substantive upstream phase as we've been discussing over the last hour. It's not a bad solution... 3-5" er. Low end plowable

I'm pretty sure I know why - been posting about it

This ICON run did exactly what I'm discussing... If you go back along it's recent run cycles, those that have the intermediate stream wind max --> phase and boom. Those that don't... whiff or less. I feel pretty confident we've identified the gremlin here -

ICON unlikely to hit it on this particular 12z run

Lol... certainly no shortage of adventure - if not 'entertainment'...

This may also help if interested... I put this in the NY City thread - a bit of an extended evalution/more discrete, regarding the EPO relay of ...whatever is ultimately going to be so - "....the N/stream additional S/W power at mid (500 mb) level 72hours diving S out of western Canada in the GFS that the Euro doesn't have - sort of resembles an 'intermediate jet stream' feature. The GFS phases ... which leads to more power getting relayed E than the Euro, which doesn't perform this phenomenon because it doesn't "see" that middle stream mechanical influence. Here... I just didn't want to get too detailed in the previous post .. but all this is ultimately coming from the complex handling over the EPO domain. What is actually going to get sent down river determines what's tumbling over the dam

Is it possible that some of that 'success' interpretation is attributable to increasing integrated PWAT that's objectively measured everywhere. I mean shy of invoking the sensitive climate topic ... part of that CC is the increased WV loading, and it's definitively being registered in deposition rates. Anyway, just wondering if we took system A from 1920 ( say..) and ran it through modeling/reanalysis now, would that same system be more prolific.

Yeah, it's straight-up a wave addition or not addition taking place between the GFS vs Euro respectively. Not sure why the EPO relay is different - that's what I was after in describing the original bifurcation stuff. There's excruciatingly tedious albeit crucially important differences in what exactly is sent along and ...well, there we go

Yeaaah... I'm not gonna say 'unlikely' from this vantage, but ... that feature, albeit important in general, appears to be handled similarly between the GEFs and EPS... It's running out ahead and dematerializing in the compression gauntlet over the SE. (that analysis can and probably should be refined further, however) However, the N/stream additional S/W power at mid (500 mb) level 72hours diving S out of western Canada in the GFS that the Euro doesn't have - sort of resembles an 'intermediate jet stream' feature. The GFS phases ... which leads to more power getting relayed E than the Euro, which doesn't perform this phenomenon because it doesn't "see" that middle stream mechanical influence. Here... I just didn't want to get too detailed in the previous post .. but all this is ultimately coming from the complex handling over the EPO domain. What is actually going to get sent down river determines what's tumbling over the dam

I posted this sequence below ( from the GFS to make the point -) in the NYC thread. I feel fairly confident the majority of sensitivity leading up to this event is coming down to this flow bifurcation phenomenon that is illustrated ... This handling appears to be the source/origin for the S/W in contention - there is likely either errors in sampling relative to either idea ... OR, the physics after the fact is exposing one or the other as having an an issue with ballast - how much recedes vs gets injected downstream ... 1 2 3

This entire handling discrepancy between guidance systems strikes me as data ingest problems. I've posted this over in the NE thread - but the source/orgin for this event is not arriving via canonical Pacific routing but is actually an inject from SPV decay over the NW Terriorties/eastern EPO domain. It's not abundantly clear that is either well sampled, or even natively handled ( physically..) in the guidance given that processing headache ... 1 2 3

We should go look at the source/origin of that event's governing mechanics, and see if we can identify any similarities - not even analogs ... but by concept. I mean if data sampling can [possibly] be identified even regardless synoptic scaffolding. Here's a thought: the Euro has this 4-d variable correction/smoothing system that is really why it was "Dr No" for so many years. Letting model physics run naked out in time will result in more boners because their junk flops around a lot more, whereas the Euro "corrects" those by tucking them in a jock-strap that's really purposefully designed to limit fractal from taking over and modulating out in time... Kidding obviously, but the point is ... the Euro may be "over correcting" because "if" it's not getting the proper input, it "assumes" it's errant and removes it. I'm just baffled how there's so little in- between here.

Yup ... What just saying the same thing to Seymour' ... I just can't help but think about the Boxing Day event in 2010. That one was on fumes even mere 48 or 60 hours ahead and out of nowhere we were left to trust the NAM ( ETA?) ...which seemed to be the first to pick it back up. But even then it was dubious because the NAM had ( and may still have) a NW bias over the western Atlantic as one of many in it's various idiotic charms. Then the 06z Euro marched back... what? and all the sudden, 12z runs start pouring in big event out of seemingly nowhere. That was an event that had considerable presentation when in the deeper middle range but was lost for 2 or even 3 days...

It strikes me as just missing data. I wouldn't be shocked if any one of these guidance that currently are showing upper-moderate impact...etc etc, offer up a cycle of whiff, too. It's like an either or thing? You know? either the model's got the data = storm. don't get the don't = not storm. Seems less about handling and amounts in this case. That much definitive difference is suspicious one way or the other, though

I know you don't ... I'm just broadcast there to the general resenting tone over the subject matter.

Yeah, I mean ...I can't see any other cause of/for the stark discrepancy between - this is/are the wholesale guidance machinery of either, pulled almost diametric. The GEFs? That would be neat result if that 964 MB low on Nantucket Island member of the GEFs verified, whilst the D4 EPS was doing this. Or vice versa

Not to push my agenda like a shining dick tip but ... I did warn that these ENSOs were suffering some kind of negative interference going back years at this point. I think it's just too big to wrap heads around or something but whatever ... we're seeing it more objectively/coherently in observations et al now, so it is what it is. And yes ...CC has something to do with it - sorry

I'm not surprised the 06z EPS, frankly. I suspected it wouldn't be much of a d-drip savior just yet, because of all guidance systems ... the Euro appears to be the least dispersive amongst its members.

I really think folks should pay attention to this ... "I think the Euro cluster overall is missing data. I'm noticing that the source/origin for much of this thing's S/W mechanics are not coming from the Pacific typology - they are materializing out of the decay of a small SPV situated over the NW Territories up amid the eastern EPO domain. Look at the ICON behavior - again...not using that model, the point is made. We vary the sampling of where this S/W's guts actually materialize from just 'that' much you get that extraordinary single run-to-run variance of size and amplitude. " It's at least worth it to venture the question over sufficient data sampling over that region. Not that the open expanse of the Pacific oceanic echo chamber is much better ... but this system's sensitively appears almost - from what I am seeing - entirely with the method/how/how-much-so gets injected from that region.

...the flip side of which means, the El Nino is not fully coupling the hemisphere

Guys ...ha, I get it - but this thread does not intend to cover the 20th.

Yeah I got your point - it was an interesting one, actually... I thought the same thing. Sometimes we forget an early model suggestions because it gets lost in daily arguments among other guidance with variations on type ...size, amplitude... everything. Then, get in closer and that early notion returns. I'm not saying we're getting a 965 mb bomb on Martha's Vineyard from this - at least one Euro run about 4 days ago, if anyone's forgotten. But, there are a couple members of the GEFs in that range, in the spread from both 00z and 06z. I think the Euro cluster overall is missing data. I'm noticing that the source/origin for much of this thing's S/W mechanics are not coming from the Pacific typology - they are materializing out of the decay of a small SPV situated over the NW Territories up amid the eastern EPO domain. Look at the ICON behavior - again...not using that model, the point is made. We vary the sampling of where this S/W's guts actually materialize from just 'that' much you get that extraordinary single run-to-run variance of size and amplitude.

I'll have to catch up on this thread ( was back on page 3 ) ... but, just that it's peculiar how the EPS backed off slightly and the operational Euro ...completely devoid on this signal, considering that the Euro source/cluster was actually the first guidance to even illustrate this thing back 3 or 4 days ago.. Now, the GGEM, which had zip clue all along has this amped up snow to wet nasty coastal over Worcester. I rather like the 00z GFS, only because of the compromise between the Euro and GGEM. Haven't seen the UKMET. The ICON when from essentially a 95% whiff to something similar to the GGEM between it's 00z and 06z run. Meanwhile, the GEFs have some scary bombs near Martha's Vineyard. The next question is ... what the fuck is going on -