Typhoon Tip

I love it when trough axis start to "scoop" like that... I was talking to prof back in the UML Lab days and I referred to that as 'fish hooking' tends to precede aggressive cyclogenesis. He just sort of said, hm, while slowly nodding. Later that afternoon he was giving a lecture and he said, " ...earlier a Met student referred to this structure as a fish hook" ... I was like yeah. Finally, a moment in college whence I didn't appear to be a complete dipshit - I'm interesting it the interval comparison to the 00z ... I suspect this 12z above is more impressive in this regard/overall just because the consensus continues to improve the contributing/governing mechanics are likely also doing so.

K, so ...if anyone's interested - I started a 'medium confidence' thread regarding the 29th ( ish... lol ) system. Intending it to be almost experimental in the sense that we've see a robust +d(PNA) projected for some time and have been puzzled at how the models et al have shown so little restoring forced system evolution. It appears tentatively as though that is changing, as has emerged with some continuity and generally agreed upon by cross guidance on or around that date. Hence the 'monitoring' thread. Hopefully we can keep it clean? pleasy weezie with sugar on top

We'll see on this .. but feel it is at least worth monitoring at this point - if this doesn't happen, it will be an interesting series where a robust d(PNA) sign flip did not result in an identifiable restoring event. ( there may be a need for thread/ Tuesday overnight, particularly along and N of the Pike - this thread is not intended for that coverage ). The backing for this is the (multi-day + multi sourced) index projection loudly signaling system emergence in the OV/TV to MA and New England regions in general, coupled with now both ensemble clusters and their operational runs beginning to finally see a cross-guidance identity in the flow. We had seen a lot of tussling in the dailies ( operational versions ) prior to that, an identity was lost to any corroborative sense, however. A lot of that is probably more acceptable than not, because ... this signal happens to be embedded in the +d(PNA), which for this evolution is a full sign change ( -PNA --> +PNA). That's a bit different than moving the index within the same positive(negative) the standard deviations - flipping the orientation of the mass field entirely is akin asking the operational runs to forecast through an inflection - complex but just inherently error prone. So.. it's actually rather straight forward. This is an emergence of an event that was heavily suggested by prior techniques to actually emerge - and that seems to be taking place now. Note, spread emerging along the NW arc ... This not uncommon for a +PNA emerging event, because the total stress in the field/"correction vector" is actually toward a sooner/west strengthening system, and the models are "beginning to detect" by having ensemble members beginning to pull the result set in that direction... This feels like a scenario where we are on the cusp of coalescing a more important low consensus between the D. Marv/CC-BM climate route.

Two schools ... 1 the GGEM/GFS cabal actually has climate on it's side 2 though the Euro does not, ...we live now in an era where climate-based "correctivity" is in trouble; what should not happen, ...still happening, has been increasing in frequency ( huge discussion avoidance here ) Not sure those two facets cancel one another out, leaving us with no clue... Or, we lean in favor of one or the other. I'm personally inclined to believe the GFS/GGEM cabal myself... Because of ... two schools ... 1 our unique geo-physical circumstance is so hugely in favor that even with the burgeoning/disrupted climate signaling taking place, we're still talking atmosphere vs actual Earth (talking about topographical features favoring cold wedging..etc.). Earth should win in that debate. 2 the Euro has been proven fallible vs these other models this year - it's not abundantly clear it should be trusted out of hand.

Well then ... looks like the truth's just been dealt an inconvenient narrative, huh -

Hopefully this cold was deep enough to set the tick and other invasive insect population back

Still waiting on a pattern that really reminds me of El Nino frankly

I don’t really think the West specific warm pool is as much of an offset to the El Niños people think anyway.… It’s a full integral of a planet problem. It’s always been about a heat source versus a heat sink. If you fill the sink you have less flow from the source. That is a planetary issue of being too warm everywhere for the El Niño to differentiate against the background tapestry.

18z GFS repeats that motif... Impressive +d(PNA) --> zero restoring response-related events, anywhere. Bit unusual ... but then again, we seem to live in an era where unusual sentiment has become usual.

Euro repeated the 28th/29th thingy. Fast moving NJ model low of minoring consequence. It seems what's going on with all the operational runs is that they are attempting a transition into a strong +d(PNA) - however transient, notwithstanding - and having nothing happen as a result. Because it's not abundantly clear any system on the 28th is really tied to the former large scale changes, and after that ...there's nothing but an 18 hour cold snap. I guess that's possible too

Will's right... the L-current's been weakening and the GOM isn't adjusted in historical climate records accordingly because the weakening has been happening at a faster rate.

First it gets warm... then it gets cold, boom

Not speaking for Scott here but ... SSTs and "heat content" are too different aspects. SSTs can be affected pretty fast by small time-scaled wind stressing patterns. Heat content more typically refers to the deeper depth/thermalcline integral.

Excuse the pun, but I agree 100 % with the bold statement. It's not even just anecdotal. The increasing humidity and rain rates in the MA and coastal New England has already been papered. I'd like to say "talking way off in the future," but given recent accelerations - that can launch a separate debate. But... I almost wonder if a Jurassic climate return would be more sub-tropical ... I don't know about tropical ferns per se... but already, have any of you actually taken a walk through the woods in mid summers as of late. I've noticed them dripping ... rain forest style, when the adjacent field is 88/76 under baking sun - in itself getting harder to believe that DP elevation is just garden DP phenomenon. This is a "more and more" type aspect - not every time. But there are subtle, creeping changes if people pay attention. It seems that could be a natural transition with increasing S-SE, as oppose to the S-SW flow types in summers. That is already been papered - the Bermuda high repositioning farther N is causing wetter inflow tendencies into the Mid Atlantic.

I think where Ray was focusing his comment though, was in the facet of needing 'direct cold source'/feed mechanics as an increasing sort prerequisite ... "marginal" events are rarefying. I too have surmised as much in the past. I used to whimsy refer to that as our "flop direction" used to be on the cold side of fence events. Our region seemed to sneak cross a threshold over the last 15 years, an innocuous one, where now we're more cat paws and liquid. etc etc. But from his perspective, if there is a direct cold feed taking place, it tends to be a hygroscopic sink - and he ends up with a moisture deficit that by circumstance happens to consumes fall-rates more so over SE NH into NE MA. That makes just as much plausible sense to me as what you are suggesting - which yeah...I could see warm modulation from the E on average tending to move west, too. But then we'd have to look at CF versus less obvious CF events, versus the former. It'd be complex and nuanced; there could concurrency going on, too.

I liked the 'effort' Thinking like, " Meteorological + climatological)/2 " is a virtue in attempted reasoning - there's a lot more merit in that approach than knee jerk dismissal of climate changing being involved ... in any of this shit for that matter. I grow just as tired of auto-reliance on the mantra that because climate is longer term averages, it cannot describe the discrete event profile. First of all.... that logically can be argued against. For example, if the climate is getting warmer.... that means that all the discrete events that are in the means have in fact been getting warmer. At some point, the mean is a representation of that. People are confusing the rightful idea of not using climate to predict a singular event, with it meaning that the singular event's results were not relatable. That dubiously smacks as a rationalization, no different than any other bargaining/denial psycho-babble that happens when someone is faced with a truth they cannot tolerate -

That is something, huh -

Didn't this happen last year on that similar date ?

No window on the 12z GGEM - fwiw... But, all chiding and popular bs aside, that is the most climate sounds solution I've frankly seen re that attempted warm thrust.

It appeared to be the most aggressive ... but in all cases, that's unsual to see a 1035 mb polar high slipping E while N of Maine, with a warm front blithely making it all the way to the MA/NH border. I guess ...

mm... I don't know if I'd draft that out as being distinctly his 'prison term' ... Having suffered the vicissitudes of New England's colder than everywhere else whenever the pattern tries to run warm over the decades, I'm inclined to say that we're on the same turf - maybe another end of the field, but definitely a similar circumstantial earth. We are all guarded within the same circumstance. Put it this way... if he were a lifer, we're on a 30 year stint.

Oh yeah ...that's the other thing. Because of New England's unique gaped butt hole exposure to any possibility imaginable to sink cold into the cleft east of the western New England bum cheek ... we can't even (at least) enjoy the warmth of the impending climate holocaust. Because Antarctic will have completely decapitated all ice and tropical flora will start growing ... New England will be wedged with 38 F with fog and mist.

I'm hoping this happens ooa Feb 20 ... because we will by then be soaking in post solar minimum heating, climate momentum..., during a pre-CC holocaust either no one believes is real ( or simply can't get their heads around) ...but are either way unknowing racing toward, after the last 8 years have featured half of them with an episode of 70 to 80 F that unbelievably early, and ... short version? we 80 in Feb again. Having it happen during a presupposed El Nino February? that is also an ancillary tastiness. LOL

The idea as I said it, is that the present 850 mb layouts from those same means, for the 29th, is warm - but might "correct" in future guidance. It was an implicit suggestion relating to model behavior/biases at this range... But yes ... in a 101 synoptic sense of it, a western N/A ridge is a cooler flow over the eastern N/A region. But here's thing ... this kind of gets into other facets but, the warmth seems to dominate very quickly when the cold sourcing pulls out - that's a change over earlier generation. Hint hint. heh When the spigot turns off in the form of the N/stream going flat across higher latitudes, there seems to be an "acceleration" where cold air moderates faster than it used to years and years ago. Like I said, it gets into another discussion... but reiterating, ' it seems mid latitudes have a tougher time being winter, in winter, when there isn't a direct feed of arctic air as a static delivery .' To exaggerate for point, it's either 15 to 20 F, or 45 ... The system we had that gave the 6 to 15" regionally a couple weeks ago - that's getting increasingly rarer. 31 F unperturbed snow storms. Anyway, the current projected +PNA is occurring without an antecedent cold source. Perhaps owing to the above idea, it's like a favorable flow structure that is warmer than climo suggests it should be.

Scanning the ensemble source/means over night, there's still a signal for the end of the month that is on the robuster side of the climate. The time range still beyond 200 hours. The 28th system appears to be fading? No qualms from me. The index method likes that one less ( but not zero ) than leaning toward the 30th. What is interesting, it is as though both the EPS and GEFs are sans the 28th and 30th in lieu of "merging" or emerging at all, on to the 29th mid way between. That's kind of cool ... for determinstic nerds lol. These are 18z on the 29th: If this continues to emerge ...there'll be problems with cold air availability though, too. I'm willing to lean that some of the 850 mb positive anomalies normalize ( but not all), as the larger synoptic signal begins to back the deep layer flow NW over Canada -