Typhoon Tip

This is good... We appear to be slated to receiving an inch or so of beneficial rains - whether the models are doing so or not. After a couple of warm days with relatively lower DPs, it's value add. Mid week, too ... when it is by and large less important to salvage outdoor time. Question is, do we end up more optimistic for the weekend?

Your breaks have moved NW - or repositioned. We have some dull sun eyeballin' thru. It's sent the 65 to 71 in the last half hour. Today shows that this isn't a 'cold' airmass. It's really still quite mild in the vertical. It'll be like that through this scunge patter we're in for the next couple of days. Any sun here or there and the T's pop. 10 days ago, this would be 44.

heh.... humans as dogs - tongue in cheek analog that offends some people. I actually read an article that outlined why ours differential, coming off as more important. Just sounded like 'prominence righteous' ultimately rationalized bullshit, missing the bigger point Cocker Spaniels to Dobermanns, to Poodles, the Boxers, Terriers ... Retrievers Caucasian, Mongoloid, Negroid, and Australoid, within which there are no doubt sub-classes that our species' (also) charming ability for hyper-classification gets all offended if you don't give credit to - proving their own 'racism' for reacting ... But they are ultimately just subtle genotypic and phenotypic variations, like that which makes a Poodle look different than a Retriever.

Folks should curl up with a cup of coffee and a slow and discerned reading of Yuval Noah Harari's wonder-history, "Sapiens" The book is fantastically simplified for proletariat consumption -ha, meaning, it's not in PHD verse, but is in a language that's accessible to most. it about 450 pages, starting some 700,000 years ago ... it spans the entire spectrum of our evolution, elaborating both explicitly and implicitly how feed backs from innovation along the course of evolution changed our destiny - qualitatively, the verdict still not settled seems tongue-in-cheek, too. Among a spectrum of aspects, one will take away a pretty strong intuitive understanding, and of the fact, that economics is not indigenous to nature. It is merely endemic to humanity - it is ( at this point ...as we all know ) but a social construct with no intrinsic value or physical connection to those forces that construct reality - i.e, physics..., like E-MC2, PV=NRT, Quantum Field Theory, nor the principale of the greater overall Mathematical compendium used to describe reality. It is, for lack of better phrase, a fantastic delusion. Harari uses the invention of religion as a means to demonstrate how/why economics actually can exist, such that humans 'successfully' carry on with it. The 'faith in the dollar' is the same in California, as it is in Massachusetts, and all interstices activities in between, binds the entirety of the 300,000,000+ souls considered to be a part of the America dream and census; thus, all may function in relative cooperation. But it is, in end, all based upon an arbitrary agreement of value. And most importantly, an ability among all humans to do so that came about really just inside the last 10,000 of evolution. Oh the rudiments of capacity to do so ... probably had arrived on the genetic road map long before; as those things go ... circumstance would come about that favored tapping into the ability. He goes on about the Sumerian civilization and the first cuneiform ledgers, the earliest known physical recordings of economic transactions - hugely primitive compared to AI -driven triggers on Wall Street some 4,500 years later, no doubt. My point to all this is that, economics is a very, very recent innovation in human evolution. Whenever the rudiments of that capacity to engage in the necessary group psychology of economic values came about, that is less important to the innovation of systemic codification. Driving ultimately the mechanization of profligate extraction of natural resources. Not until almost immediately aft of present day Sapiens existence did that take place - For that... despite al conceits, from pleb hardship to country court yard lilac blossoms and everything in between that we afflict on our selves in the name of it, economics is an experiment. not when considering that human paleo leap that began 700,000 years ago, and would take 99% of that time just to get us to Sumeria ... and .0009% of that time to get us to the Industrial Revolution ... ultimately, today's ways and means. There's no way any feed back from the innovation of anything, let along the invention of economics, has been sent through the crucible of evolution. Mind you ... light skin variants of SLC24A5 and SLC45A2, roots of caucasoid, were only present in Anatolia by ~ 10,000 years ago. Part of the so-called Neolithic Revolution. And we're still struggling with race to this day.

Actually the 00z ICON looks like the Euro for the weekend, fwiw. basically, the GGEM/GFS are smudge happy for days. The Euro and ICON are at least dry. It actually wouldn't be a bad thing to get some beneficial rains tomorrow, but it looks like light showers to me. The NAM's 00z/06z trended S ...now just grazing the region with what probably amounts to not completely even wetting the streets type sprinkles.

SE zones enjoying a meso-beta scaled sun hole. Surrounded be a rampart of clouds, but looping shows it's holding out. Ha. Can't imagine that's ultimately very sustainable - it's like the General Custard morning

Let's hope the Euro's more right about the weekend

https://phys.org/news/2024-05-sweltering-asia-climate.html

Well, congratulations to the NAM

Yesterday was 73/52 with mainly sunny.

Fwiw I think that BN lasting every day like that may be too pessimistic.

Certainly is unusual to have a SW flow 80+ F day setting the stage for any kind of coastal concern ...unless it's a hurricane I guess

I outlined this earlier but ... in a relative since, it is so in the guidance. We appear to have graduated from an variance spread of 48 to 63 ( with lolly 78s) type temperature motif, to a 68 to 83.. Caveat: I'm also a little leery too. There's a pretty strong -NAO signal emerging for the 23rdish of the month. It's getting late in the year and wave lengths overall have/are shortend(ing)... That said, the teleconnector for -NAO is not the same as it is in January. It's not clear how a blocking over the western limb of the NAO domain space will effect the circulation down here. But... it's equally low confidence that it won't. We'll have to see.

82 here warmest day since last year. I'm thinking 83 or 84 for ping high

I like that second photo. Its verdancy is evocative

It's a good thing Earth doesn't have an imbalanced anomaly distribution problem - phew... America is still great, again

heh ... for morbid amusement I was just looking at 32 C at 850 on the skew-t/log-p diagram and the extrapolation is 46 C at the surface. For those that don't associate yet, that's 116 F ... and that makes sense considering the Euro has 102 at D8 in that vicinity of west Tx, which typically ... that model is 12+ F too cool in that 2-m product at that range. - why do these models even have a 2-meter anything when they are so unabashedly cold bone head stupid looking after March 21, like always? In this case, there may not be enough solar insolation to actually start baking bread ( and people ...) out in the ambient air so the 2-meter slope may ceiling there, anyway.

I know ... the charmed existence of around here - so enabled... We're like rich kids with no appreciation. What do they call that? "Meteorological affluenza" heh I think the Euro's trying to cook up the season's first 90 at NYC-BOS. It's got a pretty intense seasonal anomaly at 850 through the region next Tues-Thurs, and already 2-meter product is 84 at Logan at a range where that model is consummately under mixed and too cool. GFS has the warmth at 850, but as usual it's inventing too many perturbations to limit sfc results, because of NOAA's conspiracy with the Trumpologists to hide CC from the model's projection (not serious)

The guidance across the board have continued the idea that the season's switched to the next level. Instead of 48 to 63 (yes one or two warm pops in the midst of that), it's now more like 68 to 83 as the variance. etc. Euro has +32 C at 850 mb over west Texas in the D7-10 range. That's alarming but cross that bridge. That should be watched, particularly should the frequency in the guidance(s) repeat that tendency, because that sort of hyper kinetically charged near BL EML this early is an interesting signature - leave it at that.

There's some kind of strange disconnect going on between the sensible weather - what society feels on skin and experiences day-to-day - vs the objective data, from which those sort of products are supposedly based upon. The sensible weather and the empirical data don't always couple, no. That's why a 50 F day in January is luxurious, but that same temperature in July is depressing. But I'm not talking about mere acclimation... Yes it's ranking on short list as far as springs go, but I had car top frost if not frost in the lawn, all the way into early May. Years that did not rank this warm or even in the top 10 in my life did not do that. When it is not frosting, the high temperatures were below normal, while the lows were elevated - more commonly than wanted. Another oddity. The diurnal total/the two ends, ends up above normal, but there's no chance that will be experiential. I don't doubt the objective data - that's not the point I'm making. But the distribution of it has been rather odd and not lending favorably to common experience. I find that interesting.

You'll be warmer than him tomorrow most likely ... SW wind has a subtle d-slope aspect to it, no? I figure Concord to Manchester, Lowell/Lawrence, me to Fitchburg and down to metrowest of Boston are gonna cook. Probably 83 and over MOS. As suspected, prior to the s-breeze arrival we bested machine by 1 to 3 deg today. Tomorrow looks like a slam dunk

anyone E of ~ Monadnocks to Worcester Hills may not end the afternoon quite this mild. Pretty intense sea-breeze boundary is carving W under the fair weather CU field on hi res vis. The wind fields in the interior here are very light - may not be enough to stop that colder air with its attendant distant low -tide aroma from penetrating inland

Only because the ad nauseum state of the Cheshire PA nattering has become too grotesque at this point. Jesus Christ! One would wish to unleash the entire payload of tech history's malware unto American Forums ... just for the prospect of annihilating its utter futility (can't penetrate certain posters with objective based reasoning ) once and for all. Fuck it if we can escape the 'always repeating the same behavior expecting a different result' insanity once and for all. Just a diversion for a moment - although, there is some indirect connection to Climate, because the innovation curve of human history is responsible for both future states. https://phys.org/news/2024-05-ai-blame-failure-contact-alien.html Many of the early pages of this vast thread we did discuss the Fermi Paradox stuff, some of us offering our own dystopian projections of the world's future - based in no small part on human innovation outpacing the design of evolution. It's like that one aspect-attribute of our sentience was a mutation. One that is not girded to by other advancing aspect that constrain the ambition to leap - I remember turning phrases precisely along that same principle, and the content of the above article is a marvelous example.

could be a contender winter for Boston's first 0 snower heh

Somewhat of an irony... now that the pattern seems to be morphed warmer, any day with a west wind will likely drive the FIT-LWM/ ASH- Manchester NH region the warmest of anywhere NE of NYC.