Typhoon Tip

yeah... where as I don't hold onto previous ideas - I'm very mutable in short order if the typical trustier indicators go into a d(x) ... I can change my opinion pretty fast. Especially post the solar min, when that's happening during a climate era where warm "impulse" behavior is very real in the atmosphere. ... anyway... you get it -... Hey Will, ...check out the "little critter" on the 12z ICON. Reminds me a little of Feb 2002 only not as cold maybe... There's actually two - the one way out there has very little predictive value ( of course ..>) but that looks like it's en route to being a NJ modeler

There are two things taking place along the cinema of this ICON solution that are interesting - fwis 1 there's a subtle more N/stream plunge into the Lakes when the S/stream is nearing 90 W ...Instead of imposing confluence ... it rather lifts everything in the stream at that time on a more NE trajectory as opposed ENE. It's veering the deep layer steering field within which the S/stream is embedded. That takes the total cyclogen manifold on a closer pass... 2 ... the S/stream is like 5 measly units of power more robust, not very readily discernable... but crucially it hold onto more ability to mechanize said cyclogenesis... We end up with a solid upper moderate/low end major ordeal ... The ICON has been flirting the two streams in one way or the other ... more so than other guidance to this point. But it hasn't been showing much continuity in doing so... by doing so in different ways.

Oh, yeah ... 'this storm's performance' expectation-wise

Also, I've been watching the NAM as this has been coming into the denser more physical sounding array over the Pac NW ... it seems the handling of the S/stream is reasonably consistent (perhaps slightly more robust), but what's actually been interesting more so is that the western 'elbow' of the N/stream dangles more precipitously as the S/stream is approaching 100W - It's right out the end of the run, so ... obviously the real deterministic value here is lower. But it does help the "analytic imagination" ( if you will...) to see how N/stream could be more involved in phasing. I'd also point out that the ICON at 18z yesterday did show this feature phasing in - it's sort of a smaller sneaky S/W inject but that spun our cyclone down to 974 near Block Island when that happened and put a band of thunder snow over PVD... Just thought I'd mention.

How do you think about your SE zones relative to 'normal' climate there? - I realize this season has been lacking. I mean in the objective sense re the former

Tentatively thinking there's something around the 20th still...but it may be more overrunning or 'swfe' ...etc. in nature. Not sure about the 24th? I'm starting to see what Scott was fearing yesterday materializing in the telecon projections (numerical) ... in short, once post the 20th the EPO and PNA are neutralized down to almost no skill. Thing is...that could get uglier for winter enthusiasts when least excuse imagined, year to year now... CC apparently crashes the late February party ... Without a steady state cold influx at hemispheric scales, "warming" is being proven time and time over recent years to be a predisposition... So, any such relaxation of the pattern ...heh, a warm flash/bounce potential is implied. Sort of disproportionately more so than people may think. Despite even those who are willing to embrace the truth about the future state of this thing ... even amongst us we act surprised sometimes - But we'll see. These extended telecons are also more variable/'mop ended' ...so it's just an early recognition for now. That would be post the 25th which crowds the 24th a bit. just sayn'

That actually leaped out at me. Not only is the wave space a bit deeper in the z coordinate, but if you toggle the previous run you might get an impression of the entire field slightly rotating cyclonic relative to the position of all features. That's very important as a more subtlety if you ask me, because when dealing in "needle threading" ( have to tell you ...I'll be happy to put this winter in the books and move on into spring solidly early if I could trade these mother f'ing needle thread system types! ) ... it's like correcting the trajectory of an asteroid: you don't have to move it but an inch early on along it's pathway ... that inch ends up being miles of difference farther down along its course. Also, the bulk wave space/mechanics of interest are currently an "inside slider" over eastern Washington and Oregon, having just arrived over land between 06z and 12z here this morning.... I find it interesting that as that's happened, we get this subtle but necessary more robust appeal by the 06z GFS and the 06z EPS means combined...

ICON bombed on this run. thunder snow and a wind burst for 3-4 hrs

Yup 20th

It's actually the weak S/W and attendant back side flow going normal to the hydrostatic gradient ( i.e., CAA) ... which scoots by overnight Saturday night - while not a huge deal, it is crucial and starts that process ... The advent of 'sneaky' cold advection 30 ... 36 hours prior to arrive disturbances is quite highly correlated - for those that don't know to look for that

I mean the mid level jet mechanics are approaching upper bound material with wind exceeding 130 kts at 500 in a jet tube that spans WI to S of LI. wtf

Okay, ... a gift for Scott, Ray and Kevin Today marks the first day removed having exited the perennial solar minimum, after spending 91.25 days since Nov 8, in the cave of winter This is now the solar transition where moving forward the +delta in daily irradiance begins the equinox acceleration. yay!

agreed ... the 20th may be the next in the hemispheric cycle - I realize that's the 23rd but I suspect it's all within shuffling range, either way

I don't normally make comments of this nature but ... can we lose the mustache ?

Despite all peregrinations ... enough similarities to make us ponder how much the patterns really changed...

The cold should be expected, though. There's a very strong -EPO signal from every telecon source that's been in the projections for over a week, positioned between ~ the 13th and the 20th... 7 days of cold loading into the Canadian shield still on the polar side of the Equinox probably not a warm look along the NP-GL-NE garland.

I know - did you see the 12z Euro ? gelid hell. It creates a standing R- wave that happens to place a continental cold conveyor axis right through New England ... sub 520 dm non hydrostatic hgts in a laminar sort of 40 mph wind

Okay... lol - if you need to go there, that's fine too. Not sure why but okay -

I got news for ya ... you're in spring. These cold outlooks since ... maybe 15 years ago but more so recently, are behaving more and more so like spring cold snaps. A qualitative appeal that too few are really aware of, either because they don't want to be, .. or it simply hasn't occurred to them. And guess what? It snows in spring sometimes.

talk about a strand of thread along the axis of a needle ... the whole f'n storm is like 50 mi wide

oh, I know You know frankly it gets harder and harder for me to think that CC isn't effecting the way the circulation of the planet behaves and somehow it is having some sort of effect in the physics - it wouldn't be a violation idiocy like some think. I mean they're just ill-equipped now in the sense that their defaulting to missing needed components to keep up. Maybe when Quantum Computing comes on line - that's a whole 'nother terrifying reality for this engagement because let's get honest ... much of the allure is in the mystery of the unknown. I don't know but ever since the atmosphere began speeding up ( and there are papers that directly demo now how CC has in fact made that happened - thanks ) I've noticed that we've slipped performance in the mid range by some

but, we should have additional opportunities beyond this one ... hell, maybe we can help the Feb 15 to Mar 1 W-L column because that period of time has a relative nadir in historical activity.

I'm pissed. f