Typhoon Tip

I was reading a recent paraphrase republication about the NE Pacific warm pools being a recurring consequence associated with changing circulation modes ( teleconnection). Those that try and correlate these long terms air-sea coupled correlations in winter projections may find this useful ... https://phys.org/news/2024-04-atmospheric-teleconnections-sustain-blobs-northeast.html (the original source material is linked - ) The WPO's influence/factorization in the discussion, notwithstanding, the NE PAC/'EPO' loading is enhanced(ing) these N/A cold outbreaks. Intuitively counter to CC motif as it may be.

you know I think it'd be interesting to see this curve back to 1750 ... maybe 1700. 1750 is the widely/historically noted beginning of the IR.

I tell ya ... if we ever get 22.5C at 850 mb in a vertically integrating sounding while this sky condition is happening, we will be 105 at all majors, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined I've noticed over the last 20 years ...when > 22C types of kinetically charged warm slabs, rare as it may be, successfully swath over the region from a SW/Sonoran type heat release synoptics, we seldom observe the above striking purity of clear. We always have poorly timed mid or high level gunk to take the edge off.

Interesting ... sort of indirect argument from the MJO desk that lends to the current longer range pattern orientation summer gloom doom by the ens as suspect. I'm just trying to get a feel for the early summer pattern bias -

Distant teleconnector projections from all three ensemble system have a dramatic mode change from negative to positive PNA. Nooormally, the PNA takes a backseat in the summer - to which we are not actually/technically in, just yet, granted ( certainly close enough that the PNA statistical correlation should be lowering ). However, that signal is also glaringly and quite unusually massively signaled in the ensemble mean spatial layouts; the depiction of the circulation mode presented imm below tends to rule out the non-correlation argument. In other words, it's difficult to imagine a broad hemispheric foot print like below successfully transporting much AN. They all three look similar to this enough to just use the EPS Deep troughing between Hawaii and California sets up in the deep range, and puts N/A down stream into a set up that looks like it would completely shut down summer as we head deeper into the first week of June. I've seen big signals fall apart this late winter through spring, in the extended range a couple of times. We'll see where this goes as the time arrives, but it does raise some tentative caution flags for the 'unending, unbroken warm season enthusiast' crew, when considering that we've seen more than just 1 or 2 summers end up dimmed after an early warm anomaly period. Just sayn'

80 here by 9 not bad

I'm not sure I need to? It's not even in question. We already know

Yeah..I get it ( I'm being partly sardonic in my phrase choices here. Ha) no but in all seriousness, there could be a time bomb threshold of toxicity that isn't known... All at once (say) there's a plague of male and female reproductive cancers, or something. Or, being that it's apparently capable of accessing the reproductive cellular exchange barrier... once in there, can it get into one's genetics? In that sense, it's not just potentially harmful to patient zero, maybe it forces a mutation that takes another generation or two to unilaterally manifest - suddenly, all our grand kids are born with half the gray-matter density. With the rate in which recent science has been upending all the previous assumptions over the last 20 to 30 years, what makes any plausibility of foresight less possible? That frequency increase should really inform us that just when we think we know, we only know we don't.

Stabilize? it's going to fall

Something about the zeitgeist of modernism is doing a psycho-babble job on current breeding aged humanity and that is causing birthing rates to come down, anyway, but the following? It is, at minimum, an indirect implication of purely anthropomorphic pollution over the last 100 years, and is disturbing: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38745431/ Between the two of those, there's likely to be a population sink before the end of this century as time catches up with present heart beats while replacement long fell below 1::1. The implications of which is probably modeled via super computer -reliant mathematical interpolations, or some other sci fi shit ... After all, starting with 8 billion souls, with non-equally distributed testicular numbing based on regional dispersion across the planet, it's not as straight forward. Still, it's easy, given that publication, to imagine a dystopian frame-up where that is part of the cocktail of consequences lending to the Fermian "exit strategy" (tongue in cheek ) It doesn't seem like it takes a complex study to just go ahead and assume at minimum, a population correction has to be the arithmetic fate if fucking isn't producing babies. No need to really write that novel - the stories being written in every breath we takes and food we eat or drink, dumping exotic human innovation into reproductive physiology. That's the "ball" game

That’s more of a fun run from the 18z GFS. thunder chances but remaining warm over the weekend … I don’t mind that. It won’t be raining all the time and there will be cumulonimbus crispies to ogle completely different world compared to what the GFS was thinking three days ago when it had that excessively deep trough…

Whereas we never had dewpoint exceed 62 or 63 around here maybe 64. As it were we had highs of 89 or 90 between Fitchburg, Nashua, up to Manchester and New Hampshire.

Yeah, thanks. Phys.org is a great site to get the quick and dirty. They do paraphrasing and they always cite the source - they are clean. great minds

Anvil wall to my west. Cloudy and hot now... always an interesting very pithy summer vibe when that sets up. 87 Slow moving pulse severes up Rt 2. doubt they get here - have seen this before and they seldom do. Residual showers from dead vils later in the evening with the only thunder being the loud, rapid cricket song. It's also interesting to back up a thunderstorm day anywhere in New England with a heat. This is something I've noted as new to our climate over the last 5 years. I'd always noticed that any convection around here was always immediately rewarded the next day by the complimentary air mass change. In fact it was always so dependable I don't recall it ever not taking place. But this is more than a handful of times now I've seen this taking place over the last several summers now. And it's just May 21. 90 here. Thunder in the area. Even hotter tomorrow. What is this, Enid Oklahoma

Ho man... Des Moines could be in deep shit

Okay, installation of 2nd floor complete. Schweatty balls doing the task. wow is it hot up there. 84 is the magic temp for this property. If it's 83 outside ... it's borderline up there by 11pm. But 84 ... boom, 1001 degree F I could feel the heat by mid stair well. 90 at several home sites within a mile. Can't wait. In 8 days I getting my estimate for minny splits.

well,.. regardless of what is ultimately the high temperature, it's a hot day around this region of N central Mass. Maybe some of that is acclimation but 89/64 yields a HI of 90.x ... so tfwiw FIT and ASH are both 89.6 at Mesowest.utah.edu ... we'll have to see what's up with rounding on that.

88 .. me thinks 90 is in reach.

cool. thx!

Okay that's Plymouth edu where are you getting your machine numerics ? I've been using Weather.gov but here we are almost mid afternoon and the 12z MAV/MEX are still populating the output with 00 or 06 z when you send in your site requests.

I don't hate the look... Euro seems a bit excessively deep with the synoptic low... but the synoptics are flaccid and the error can higher due to noisiness blah blah

First legit open air warm day crispies I’ve seen this year n-w. Just towers for now. Appear to be favoring the ridge lines

82 here ... see, you'll probably end up around there by mid afternoon. Like what happened here, we had a critical threshold moment where the diurnal inversion needed to be cooked away and then we surged from 71 to 82 over the last 1 hr or so. You're delayed by some 2 hours because of that weird strata's ability to defy the sun's direct physical absorption. haha When we get those morning weird layers they do steal away from the day.

Even KBDL is jumped to 73 now that the strata has poofed away. So the typically heat-challenged Tolland area of interior N CT may even see 80 but fall just short of everywhere else ...

We don't have an Antarctic ice -related thread going, but I thought this was interesting re the Thwaites status https://phys.org/news/2024-05-satellite-radar-uncover-vigorous-antarctica.html