Typhoon Tip

heh ... for morbid amusement I was just looking at 32 C at 850 on the skew-t/log-p diagram and the extrapolation is 46 C at the surface. For those that don't associate yet, that's 116 F ... and that makes sense considering the Euro has 102 at D8 in that vicinity of west Tx, which typically ... that model is 12+ F too cool in that 2-m product at that range. - why do these models even have a 2-meter anything when they are so unabashedly cold bone head stupid looking after March 21, like always? In this case, there may not be enough solar insolation to actually start baking bread ( and people ...) out in the ambient air so the 2-meter slope may ceiling there, anyway.

I know ... the charmed existence of around here - so enabled... We're like rich kids with no appreciation. What do they call that? "Meteorological affluenza" heh I think the Euro's trying to cook up the season's first 90 at NYC-BOS. It's got a pretty intense seasonal anomaly at 850 through the region next Tues-Thurs, and already 2-meter product is 84 at Logan at a range where that model is consummately under mixed and too cool. GFS has the warmth at 850, but as usual it's inventing too many perturbations to limit sfc results, because of NOAA's conspiracy with the Trumpologists to hide CC from the model's projection (not serious)

The guidance across the board have continued the idea that the season's switched to the next level. Instead of 48 to 63 (yes one or two warm pops in the midst of that), it's now more like 68 to 83 as the variance. etc. Euro has +32 C at 850 mb over west Texas in the D7-10 range. That's alarming but cross that bridge. That should be watched, particularly should the frequency in the guidance(s) repeat that tendency, because that sort of hyper kinetically charged near BL EML this early is an interesting signature - leave it at that.

There's some kind of strange disconnect going on between the sensible weather - what society feels on skin and experiences day-to-day - vs the objective data, from which those sort of products are supposedly based upon. The sensible weather and the empirical data don't always couple, no. That's why a 50 F day in January is luxurious, but that same temperature in July is depressing. But I'm not talking about mere acclimation... Yes it's ranking on short list as far as springs go, but I had car top frost if not frost in the lawn, all the way into early May. Years that did not rank this warm or even in the top 10 in my life did not do that. When it is not frosting, the high temperatures were below normal, while the lows were elevated - more commonly than wanted. Another oddity. The diurnal total/the two ends, ends up above normal, but there's no chance that will be experiential. I don't doubt the objective data - that's not the point I'm making. But the distribution of it has been rather odd and not lending favorably to common experience. I find that interesting.

You'll be warmer than him tomorrow most likely ... SW wind has a subtle d-slope aspect to it, no? I figure Concord to Manchester, Lowell/Lawrence, me to Fitchburg and down to metrowest of Boston are gonna cook. Probably 83 and over MOS. As suspected, prior to the s-breeze arrival we bested machine by 1 to 3 deg today. Tomorrow looks like a slam dunk

anyone E of ~ Monadnocks to Worcester Hills may not end the afternoon quite this mild. Pretty intense sea-breeze boundary is carving W under the fair weather CU field on hi res vis. The wind fields in the interior here are very light - may not be enough to stop that colder air with its attendant distant low -tide aroma from penetrating inland

Only because the ad nauseum state of the Cheshire PA nattering has become too grotesque at this point. Jesus Christ! One would wish to unleash the entire payload of tech history's malware unto American Forums ... just for the prospect of annihilating its utter futility (can't penetrate certain posters with objective based reasoning ) once and for all. Fuck it if we can escape the 'always repeating the same behavior expecting a different result' insanity once and for all. Just a diversion for a moment - although, there is some indirect connection to Climate, because the innovation curve of human history is responsible for both future states. https://phys.org/news/2024-05-ai-blame-failure-contact-alien.html Many of the early pages of this vast thread we did discuss the Fermi Paradox stuff, some of us offering our own dystopian projections of the world's future - based in no small part on human innovation outpacing the design of evolution. It's like that one aspect-attribute of our sentience was a mutation. One that is not girded to by other advancing aspect that constrain the ambition to leap - I remember turning phrases precisely along that same principle, and the content of the above article is a marvelous example.

could be a contender winter for Boston's first 0 snower heh

Somewhat of an irony... now that the pattern seems to be morphed warmer, any day with a west wind will likely drive the FIT-LWM/ ASH- Manchester NH region the warmest of anywhere NE of NYC.

It's been a slog N-E of HFD and particularly ORH... Interestingly, there's been some variance in the objective data. For example, HFD is above normal for Apr and so far also in May. This has not apparently been true for CON/ASH/FIT-BED and BOS. There's been some sort of meso-beta scaled reality in there is that is a negative variant relative to the broader regional mean for the last 45 days. We were discussing this yesterday... It's an interesting debate between verification and subjective appeal. I'm sure Kevin has a boner for this spring based upon the environment the cat sees while hiding head inside the paper bag of Tolland... whole ass and tail sticking out, thinking that's the world in there. Lol ( any time to tease Kevina is a good time - cheers ).

Think I'm gonna tune up my bike for seasonal reentry ride this afternoon.

Looks like the mean variance will be 68 to 82 instead of 54 to 68 MEX is back into the 70s Thur/Fri after a upper 60s Wednesday. 68ish Sat and 75 to 80 Sun/Mon? Good time to stroll through lilac aromas.

Today should be demonstratively different than the general early October vibe of yesterday's 58 F under pancaking skies. It was 45 at dawn here and it's now 59 ... scratch that, 60 averaging those home station sites within a mile of mi case. We've surpassed yesterday's highs at 8:15 in the morning already. Satellite trends suggest the day's not free of cloud burden entirely. It may end up averaging partly sunny by day's end, but with 850s +6C by 21Z, some 7 warmer than yesterday, while the wind is off-shore, all taking place under 70% of May insolation, probably sends the Ts a couple ticks higher than machine. MAV is 71 at BDL and FIT, and 69 at ASH. Good day to test the MOS. MET is in the upper 60s at those sites so probably a slam dunk from that source. Incidentally, the MET has touched 80 now for BDL and FIT for tomorrow. First time we've seen machine numbers that warm. Beyond all this ... the cinema of the models has definitively changed tenors now, losing entirely those cold plumes S of 50 N. The frontal system passages I looked at in the GFS and Euro, albeit different and poor continuity and probably changing placement in space and time in future runs, one aspect that remains in common from both sources is that the air mass before, and immediately behind each one is not appreciably cooler than normal at 850 mb. These systems were behaving more like late spring events should, more like temperature speed bumps while clouds/precip smear through. But behind them in particularly, 552 dm thicknesses pervade the GL-OV-NE ... keeping hour hands warm in the 'glove' heh.

Lol. Just looking at the 12z GFS. you know tomorrow could be sensibly different than today. The 850 mb temps were uniform -1 to 0C throughout the region E of NY as of 12z this morning; tomorrow at that same time, it is on average +3C, and heading to +6C by 21z. That is happening while the winds have veered around to the WSW. The sky cover product at Pivotal isn't terrible. Plus, RH at 700, 500, 300 mb levels, and knowing our climo on WSW flow ... correction is more sun. Just sayin' ... with wind off shore and partly or even mostly sunny mid May probably sends us higher that machine numbers I'd guess. It's 59 here now and I don't like it. haha

You know what it is? we have to considering results in a relative sense. Um, not talking about time dilation and the curvature tensor of space in the vicinity of gravity. haha. What I mean is, relative to CC, those normals in the region described are below normal. Not only that, relative to everywhere else, they are also below the SD layout created by the recent 2 or 3 weeks. So there are concurrent relative aspects going on interesting Speaking of which... my house has managed to trickle down to a cool enough temperature to turn the heat on for a moment or two ... on May f'um 12th. I won't do that of course. But I don't recall having to "normally" ever turn on the heat in mid May, in a May that is apparently normal. jezus

Yeah, stats have a way of lying sometimes. There are ways in which the arithmetic works out to average while hiding face smacking. Like in our summers for example. Apparently our summers are warming faster than everywhere else in the CC monitoring, but we seldom ever have record high temperatures because we are also in tandem elevating DPs enormously. Perception is keen. I think if we held our lows into the 68 range, but then had more 102 afternoons ... folks would be jumping on the heating summers wagon a lot more readily than this 84/77 black mold tick born disease miasma thing.

and that's my point. who the f are Logan folk? do we mean the person stepping out of their ride and removing their luggage from their trunk, exposed to the North Atlantic for 30 seconds just before disappearing into the bowls of the facility? so glad we have a society -based official ob for those forgotten honor-lorn souls

The Euro was warmer run overall per the 00z. It starts out where we've been but ends up as though having reset the base-line by the end of this run. There's even some semblance of a ridge trying to formulate E of 110 W across the mid lat continent - still needs some growth to become a real heat player. We'll see if that continues to emerge. There's some suggestion of it in the GFS - hard to believe ... - but as usual, it's ablating the top of it and keeping the westerlies/polar jet S almost like it's templated to do so... . Both of those model's ens -based telecons have a robust -PNA signaled over the next 10 days. I mentioned this before ... and that the erstwhile runs have not been very interested in honoring what that should mean. In fact, some of these runs looked like +PNAs and completely divorced. Maybe they're coming around. I also suspect that low along the M/A Tues/Wed... might be a little over producing in all guidance. The isohypses at 500 mb standard metric intervals have no closing(ed) surface; it's merely a broadly opened trough with really only 1.5 contours, and the wind flags make it difficult to even find an actual wind max embedded in that. It's like 20 or 25 kts at 500 mb? But the models end up with a 3 or 4 contoured surface low with near gale onshore flow into NJ and a stiff east breeze here penetrating all the way to Albany. That seems unbalanced. Some models even bring sheet rain in here. That seems a bit overly sensitive for whats translating through that region aloft. We'll see

Maybe ... I dunno. I almost prefer to go with which ever pounds the butt of desire most in violation

I’m pretty sure there was a period during the laurentian ice sheet receding when NW NE was down to bare ground while Massachusetts still had a mile of ice in place … It’s become too common to curl colder air like this … probably always was like this

Same here in Ayer In fact there were multiple pillars at one point paralleling each other. We also had that eerie turquoise iridescent glow on display down near the tree line along the N horizon, but ours had lateral dark cloud streets, too, which actually kind of added to it. That was the most vivid display I've ever seen between my youth years in southern Michigan, and the few that I've seen around southern New England later on. Both being of the same latitude. I saw one once, looking N of Rockport's famed Headland, back in the mid 1980s. The aurora was just bright enough to reflect a little off the ocean - that was special. I can only imagine what last night's might have looked like from that same vantage - even better. Last night's display here in Ayer was intense enough to penetrate through the town's grid light pollution. I just stepped down the road bit a out, out from under the street lamp glare and it was pretty stunning.

I'd suggest taking it in D1-5. Predictive skill is so low right now it's all but baseless to either like or dislike any synoptic table setting out there beyond that range. Today, for example, is an utter correction of the abysmal depiction of this weekend given as near as just this last Tuesday. The other thing is that the PNA is very negative and staying that way through the next 10 days to 2 weeks. It's certainly possible that shoe would fall and some rising heights over the eastern continent materializes/corrects. -PNA correlative pattern seems to be suppressed somehow, either legitimately or just model enhanced fantasies to consummately regress seasonal change - probably some of both.

oh, I get it. heh. you being sarcastigationological

36 to 57 ... not bad. Likely to put on the breaks soon, but with light wind and high insolation value, it's a diurnal different world than dawn already.

I'm a little more optimistic than Scott. Like I just said, ... this weekend, albeit still on the cool side for some preferences, is vastly improved over a lot of modeling implications from short days ago. Not sure why these other perturbations don't end up proving model-biased, too. The models have trouble with seasonal progression/change ... they consummately attempt to regress the season backward beyond any given D5, even more demonstratively so in their complexions the deeper the synoptic range. The GFS is the worst offender of this. But I just saw the Euro three times plunk sub 540 dm thicknesses at least as far S as ORD's latitude, in it's D9, only to correct it out within 2 days of runs to just annoying scale. This weekend's correction toward more fairer and dry ... indirectly is part of that. Because part of seasonal progression at this time of year, is weakening the embedded atmospheric wave amplitudes. Which in turn, mollifies some of the dire implications and normalizes things. You have to think in nuances - this is not an all or nothing thing with this. It's shades of gray to use that cliche. The models seem to almost invariably lean toward a darker shade than what actually takes place at this time of year. ( of course this is probably too rational for this support group's psychosis need for 'oh god; not again' isms )