Typhoon Tip

There it is ... in the 00z operational Euro, coherent SW heat release - not just a ballooning eastern continental height anomaly, the inject of SW expulsion in the critical 925 to 800 mb layer was absent in previous runs, but it is there now. You're looking at a 22+ C and the model even "feels" the expansion exertion by briefly closing off 600 dm heights over PA at D7. Not to be too alarmist but synoptic 101: this is not a sudden inclusion into a recent trend with the model(s). This has been a solid trend to increase the importance of this, which in the operational Euro is clearly into a dangerous heat category and is a candidate for synergistic feed-back/extending results beyond the model projections - Haven't seen the GFS yet ( LOL ) for all I know, it has a 57 F BD front up Kevin's bungus -

That would be hilarious though… BD at the last minute

The GFS is actually weaker overall in totality too with the ridge node Wouldn’t buy this run verbatim, as it’s just out of any of the models’ wheelhouse. The ens means are hemisphere anchored at this point … have been steadfast and also trending more significant up to but not including this 18 Z GEFs mean … which for some reason is late. Kinda makes me suspicious of the whole run package.

I'd like to see a more robust 850 mb expulsion out of the deep S/W before going too crazy. That said... the non hydrostatic layout/evolution through that period is already on par with historic events - that's got me a little spooked. This could deliver with shorter warning ... pushing a seasonal expectation for heat into that synergistic territory. It would catch civility off-guard, particularly in that .. I don't honestly believe that phenotype of heat explosion has happened here since the attribution science ( recent evolution out of necessity - ) codified them as a particular interest area. It's not tested or knowable to well over the 90th percentile population density, what over 106 would be like. We built a similar scaffold in the models in 2018 prior to the July 4 heat -that also avoided the SW/Sonoran inject. Contrasting, the July 2010 one day big heat event was not appreciably soaring non -hydrostats but the 850 layer was a Sonoran released pass through and it was 104. Are we ever going to colocate these metrics? The problem with synergistic heat is that the models will inherently (likely) fail to project them, because they are based on the super position of emergent properties. I have pretty strong conceptualization in mind that at least for us, big time stratospheric heights super-imposed by 25C Sonoran dragon fart might be a good place to start. To equate the standard deviation 2-meter T would have to be 114 at D.C. and 110 at Boston to be like London's 108 last year.

still a few days to go though

I'm actually getting a little bit concerned that this may be our turn with the dreaded synergistic heat wave phenomenon, which has been identified as a specific event type, showing up in attribution studies, that transcends the seasonal heat wave phenotype. The problem with these types of events ... the results exceed the technology's ability to appropriately project the scale and magnitude of them. That's the synergistic aspect ... in that emergence properties of the heat wave synoptics then 2ndarily interact/feedback to become 'more than than the sum of the parts'. Not suggesting Pacific NW 2021 June is walking through the door. We're not capable of 112 F at Logan given to physical limitations... but, what they lacked up there, we won't: access to DP. Anyway, as is this is an usually looking set up - certainly hinted to be that way. One aspect that's holding me down from hoisting that flag is that I'm not seeing a very convincing SW heat release/expulsion ejecting down stream. Some of the original guidance ideas regarding this thing did signal that a week ago, but as of now...it's mostly just a whopper synoptic scaffolding. But this latter stuff was telecon flagged 2 weeks ago, by the way ...and it's been a class room in synptic Met watching the ensembles emerge the spatial metrics in concert. When we do that in the winter, we tend to produce massive winter events.

crazy .. the Euro if anything is cool in the 2-meter temp at that range. there's probably a few reasons why it's hard to get passed 101 around here; the return rate is therefore pretty long. I think July 2010 might be the last time we saw routine 102's around the area -but Brian might know. we're doing this right on the solstice - fuggin beautiful man. as others have noted, the 12z guidance compendium are also extending this into a lengthy at bat.

I don't think I've seen heat quite this pervasive in terms of areal expanse, at these latitudes, in modeling - whether it happens this way or not, that's sort of amazement in and of itself. This is pan-dimensionally GW/OV/NE involving ...

GFS is even more impressive centered on 'Juneteenth' 18z

The 12z GGEM brings 596 to 598 dm non-hydrostatic over SNE on the 20th

Yeah ..wise precautions You're right about the 80s tomorrow and Friday being a correction down from 90, going back to the modeling a week or so ago ... but, the defining difference between that vs next week is scale - and more precisely, how 'size' in the atmosphere matters to the physical processing in the models. We'll call them 'objects' for now. Small objects are often hidden by the noise amid all the ensemble members that are a part of ensemble means. They are also hidden by the noise of spontaneously emerging factorization in the individual ensemble members ( which includes the operational versions -), themselves. But, as the object in question nears ... the time-dependent materialization of those noisy factors reduce; thus, exposes the real features. By virtue of having more size, bigger objects are less "hidden" as said time-dependent noise emergence that accumulate at longer ranges are less sufficiently large enough to completely conceal their presence. This is why it has been observed that very big events in history tended to be 'seen' if not suggested by the guidance envelope very early - Sandy for example was suggested at 2 weeks, and started actually getting modeled at D10! The so dubbed Super Storm in March 1993 was also pretty glaringly suggested beyond a week out in time. The warming on Thursday and Friday was of the small object size. The warming aspects next week are coming from a massive R-wave reconstruction that starts out over the western mid latitude Pacific Basin and transmits the signal all the way around the hemisphere to influence the pattern orientation over the mid latitudes of N. America. So if you're following this ... a light may go on that next week had more confidence, at least in principle of occurrence, than tomorrow and Friday. Which is really just warm sector ahead of a standard mid latitude S/W progression through the field, owing to being a 'smaller object'. A week ago, a small warm intrusion ahead of the much larger phenomenon was probably seamlessly included in the latter - if perhaps in error. This being said ... there still a lot of wiggle room as to how hot it gets at the thermometers. Wrongly timed MCS debris and whatever nuances can hold temps down from potential, when the pattern at large can support more. So that takes some confidence back... Confidence is high for a pattern that has a high ceiling; the daily realization of that is naturally going to be less at this range.

Theta-e pooling under permanent +PNA residue flow structure festered and stole heat from the days and dumped it into drainage basins while nights stayed elevated so that CC gets to keep truckin’ along pos boring season

Actually the trough looks a bit more progressive with a ‘kink’ now so that may limit the recursion/sequencing

Yeah I was thinking training

Haven't seen much just yet but the operational Euro was big. 4 day heat wave with a couple days easily flirting with 101. that could also end up protracted ... possibly even in two waves heading into the last week of the month. An intermission in between, where it's just 80s and thunder before rolling back in type thing. Not sure, since we've been monitoring this signal, the end game doesn't appear to have a play book yet. The ensemble means deteriorating coherency, not changing pattern, doesn't lend to knowing.

In 500 million years the sun will be shining 10% hotter than it is now ... soon after to begin consuming helium instead of hydrogen and expanding. In 2 billion years it will almost entirely be consuming helium and will have expanded half way to the orbit of Mercury ... at which time the earth's atmosphere and ocean will be getting removed ... as the power of irradiance and solar wind mechanics will overpower the magnetic field of the Earth. By 5 billion years, the sun will have swollen to engulf the orbit of Venus. The sunrise and sunset will occupy the entire eastern and western horizons, shining over a cinder planet cooked to the brink of melted rock. Not long after that ... the sun's out layers will briefly ( in cosmic time scales ) swell to also envelop the Earth... if the Earth survives the million years of electromagnetic bath, it will end up eternally trapped in orbit around a dead white dwarf star - with no history that life ever existed on this world. It's also possible that the Earth will have disintegrated altogether.

Wow... so yeah...after a relaxation or suggestion of something more seasonal from the 00z, the 12z's are so far all upping the essence again. We seem to be oscillating between above and much above+ with this solstice heat. Check out this sick looking 12z Euro operational - first operational run that begins to explore the upper potential in this modeling saga so far...

GGEM has also come back with a bigger signal - in fact, the biggest so far since detection of this began a week ago. Both GEFS and GGEM are also open ended ... They're not indicating a pattern change so much as a deterioration of coherency, while maintaining essence of -PNAP paradigm. If nothing else, it's a pretty impressive extended rang signal - relative to that...

Pretty sure he was kidding but to your point ... this Thursday/Friday mid 80s was originally modeled to be the entry days whence about 7 days ago in the early detection. As we've gotten closer, the old can kick. That said, I do think that around Juneteenth ( which happens to be my birthday LOL ) that appears to be a R. wave anchor. Whether the dailies plume the ridge to it's fullest extent remains to be seen, but once it sets in, the GEFs ensemble was multiple days of this look ..through perhaps 300 hours It all smacks as a red flag for potential, the ceiling of which may or may not be reached. These individual operational runs have been fiddling with reasons to lower that but there's no continuity and can't be trusted.

Impressive GGEM run re the -PNAP structure. Has a sizeable 594 circumvallate closed off along the EC that extends to BOS latitude embedded in a ... well shit, here That weakness there centered over OH/PA is in fact a remnant tropical inject from off the Gulf ... undoubtedly transporting some serious back of Gulf ball bag steam into an already egregious set up.

Yeah, PF and I have broached this subject a few times over the years. There's been this propensity in May's to see ridging evolve between the Del Marva and NS... That's like taking a WAR structure, and then repositioning it N of normal. Some of those early heat pops featured humid SE flow into D.C. and PHL...with S at LGA and BOS being afflicted by SSW which are technically an indirect marine contamination from the S. But DTX-BUF-BTV has a WSW wind around the NW periphery of said ridge. Also, the flora of the continent isn't quite yet dumping evapotranspiration theta-e back into the circulation medium as much in mid May at those latitudes... that plays a roll - dryer air and 'desert' like responses. The result of SSE flow along the coast and WSW flow inland sends BTV to the sunny side of the moon while PHL-NYV-BOS are stunted. The changes in the spring time circulation modes may or may not be a part of the CC stuff - I suspect that's the case because noted mode changes are happening elsewhere around the globe, so in the absence of another explanation. Then later on ... the summer deepens and everyone N-E of the Mason Dixie ends up pretty much in a DP anomaly with comparatively tepid heat - big heat from the west being blocked by a semi permanent mid level weakness/shear axis from ORD, south. In the means ...there's probably exceptions to the rule.

solar cover ?

What is hoped and/or thought likely to be gained by needling through a single county records in PA - particular in this question, ...it's significance to global warming/climate change ?? This has been going on for months at this point to no end. What is the point of it?

See ... case in point. I guarantee you, no one has probably ever factored this into a seasonal forecast - https://phys.org/news/2024-06-discovery-reveals-ocean-algae-unexpectedly.html

Exactly. I would only press that we not only can't know "every", it's more apropos to say we know far less than every. That kind of matters, because the size of the uncertainty is proportional to the amount of dumb fuck luck that people take credit for when the dice roll kindly (tongue-in-cheek humor intended there - )