Typhoon Tip

well,.. regardless of what is ultimately the high temperature, it's a hot day around this region of N central Mass. Maybe some of that is acclimation but 89/64 yields a HI of 90.x ... so tfwiw FIT and ASH are both 89.6 at Mesowest.utah.edu ... we'll have to see what's up with rounding on that.

88 .. me thinks 90 is in reach.

cool. thx!

Okay that's Plymouth edu where are you getting your machine numerics ? I've been using Weather.gov but here we are almost mid afternoon and the 12z MAV/MEX are still populating the output with 00 or 06 z when you send in your site requests.

I don't hate the look... Euro seems a bit excessively deep with the synoptic low... but the synoptics are flaccid and the error can higher due to noisiness blah blah

First legit open air warm day crispies I’ve seen this year n-w. Just towers for now. Appear to be favoring the ridge lines

82 here ... see, you'll probably end up around there by mid afternoon. Like what happened here, we had a critical threshold moment where the diurnal inversion needed to be cooked away and then we surged from 71 to 82 over the last 1 hr or so. You're delayed by some 2 hours because of that weird strata's ability to defy the sun's direct physical absorption. haha When we get those morning weird layers they do steal away from the day.

Even KBDL is jumped to 73 now that the strata has poofed away. So the typically heat-challenged Tolland area of interior N CT may even see 80 but fall just short of everywhere else ...

We don't have an Antarctic ice -related thread going, but I thought this was interesting re the Thwaites status https://phys.org/news/2024-05-satellite-radar-uncover-vigorous-antarctica.html

oh I see. There was an inversion that we needed to cook off. Temps just surged in the last hour where ever there's sun. We looked like we'd be a bit under guidance ( machine ) as of 10 am. It was just 71 .. 72 in the region at that time. But it's 78 .. 80 really quickly just in the last hour. So the machine numbers may in fact be too cool ? here's a stretch, maybe they'll be right. no way

You know ... this time of year is tricky to draft up what the model-based sensible weather would be. For one, the 00z run from 36 hours ago ( GFS ) had a SSE cool bite water inflow into a rain wall moving into western New England by 18z on Sunday. Looks noting like that now... Problem in part is that the flow character overall has seasonally weakened. The weakness allows smaller perturbation and changes from run to run, to dictate rather large sensible weather appeal difference. The MEX numbers look way warmer than the model's synoptic cinema would imply is really possible after Thursday. Yet BDL-FIT-ASH are all above 76 with 80s on Sunday. But then it occurred to me... ha, maybe the problem is my own. My brain is still in winter mode and hasn't gotten the memo entirely LOL. Can't assume strataform constructs so much anymore. Overall, this could be just a dewy-er stretch with more hit or miss showery/thunder Maybe just some early CB entertainment followed by a warm humid afternoon on Sunday. As for MD itself, the GFS has actually been all over the map with where to place QPF blobs and low pressure. Time to start thinking more summer. The seasonal torpid gradients and nebular characteristic makes the mid range darty.

Today looks like a modest warm bust so far - interestingly. 64 at BDL with strata murk packing. It's about 20 minutes from melting to mostly sunny so they'll burst rebound, but even here where it's been 90+% insolation since sun up, the temps are acting weighted. It's not clear why with the 925 to 850 potential, either. interesting. 71 ... 10 after 10 is under MOS/machine so we'll see.

This looks suspiciously too deep and nucleated to me considering the overall evolution of the total synoptic circumstances surrounding - which is more flaccid. But aloft the Euro is trying to phase a convective feed-back vort max with a wholesale N/stream incursion through the eastern Lakes. ah ....dubious. I think slightly weaker low moving up the St L. Seaway, with ( perhaps even ...) a convection day amid a warm sector. Since that would be what we want, it won't happen, and this anomaly below will just go ahead and take place. ha

heh... it seems like the models are 'de-amplifying' the entire synopsis in that time span, enough to lower the inundating cool and wet illustration to just inconvenience - I'm just comparing the blended mean from all guidance from previous runs/yesterday. Looks like as you say, 'showery' but that's offering some dry periods and probably at this time of year, intervals of sun getting through. What we obviously don't want ( and probably don't need even - ) is what the GFS was doing 30 hours ago: it had a huge polar high dome working into N Ontario, with a slow moving weakness at 500 mb carving out just enough nadir from Ohio to NS. That troughy ball sack was then getting squeezed by the high pressure exerting from the north, afflicting 2 straight days of painful easterly llv anomalies along with intermittent steady rain bursts... Ooh, sign us up. jesus - To me the blend now looks - at this time and subject to change .. of course - more like 4 hour periods where it's dicey with disturbances but there is 6 hours between them where it's probably partial sky and drier. As we know, it's not uncommon for the models to both be biased to amplitude when in the mid and extended, and to be too amped at this time of year. Both those error considerations may continue to help us. Of course ... sometimes this doesn't help at all - like July 4th weekend 2020.

73 .. I guess now that we're officially over the chamber of commerce temp that should mean we made the cut today. The play-in team -

heh. somethin like that -

Just touched 70 now. The 'cooler water issue' is only an issue when the winds are from that realm. What we've dealt with so far this particular spring - as I have personally observed - is a fractal, or repeating occurrence whence Sunday nadirs in temperature, followed by a mid week acme in the distribution tendency. This is going back several weeks worth, and has been a consistent leitmotif ever since. Usually characterized by raw temps with some sort of moisture in air or within synoptic reach of the region around the ~ weekend times, followed by a rapid improvement and some sore of compensating climate warm up happening by ~Tue/Wed. Spanning that time I've seen a lot of Mon/Tue model-based outlooks for the following Sunday with warmth, only to have the week's shenanigans eventually modulate into a piece of utter dung day by the time Sunday really happened. That's why I'm a little leery of any model right now suggesting otherwise over MDW ( fwiw ) because of that dependable fractal. But yeah, duh ...the idea that being somewhere between pissed off and annoyed by the above, in general, is certainly canonical to spring E of the Hudson. I'm just defining what I've seen of this particular annoying version going on this year. It seems like one way or the other, be it this, a big cut-off in the west Atl that keeps buzz sawing west in periodicity, or something more pernicious like 2005 May, notwithstanding ... this particular geography on the planet happens to be a cold pattern dumpster at this time of year. Yes there are exception years from time to time, but those are not preferential

66 needs work

Sides ... I don't think I recall but 1 ...maybe 2 MDWs in my entire life span that were not 86ed at least partially. That GFS model has demonstrated a remarkable penchants for ruining what people want, period. It's not even like it's modeling the atmosphere - it's modeling the degree of sore butting what people want and plans. Doesn't matter what it is. Could be a winter storm. Could be the 4th of July, ...Labor Day..... MDW. It will run out and find any thing physically plausible to gum up the works. hahahaha

It may be in jeopardy. Well ... it already is actually, when considering the modeling. One can certainly eschew the modeling and go with the clad dependable "positive thinking" approach... to each his or her own.

Hope for the Euro over the weekend

Actually, the 18 Z Nam was better… But that model seems to have a low level cold bias, regardless any anyway so… this GFS solution is 70 or warmer every day to the end of the run for a change. An extraordinary accomplishment by that particular model, which leads me to wonder if there’s a heat wave out there somewhere other than this failed this week it takes a Herc effort for the GFS, admit even 70° in July. Given all of its biased rage to suppress warmth. It may actually be warmer in reality.

NAM keeps E of 95 up Labrador's ass thru Monday

Not sure. I suspect we all dawn packed in but it will be diurnal inversion cap stratus. The east wind direction will have a modest downslope aspect which then working with the intense solar max insolation we may see breaks opening up first west but then working E