Typhoon Tip

yeeeah maybe all that. plus, I was just trolling Kevin

In all seriousness ( and because no one has mentioned - ) ...the D9/10 ens means from all three carry an impressive cyclone signal ( considering the range..) through the NE conus. The orbital hemispheric synopsis/cinema shows a negative anomaly reaching it's lowest point under LI - relative to Climate. The GEFs has a low transiting NY State ...while the GEPs and EPS are on or off the coast. There is subtle suggestion in all three of a Pac S/stream wave space being ejected over the New Mexico route, while the N/stream is asserting a NW flow over Chicago ... possible presage to a "phasey" atmosphere but we'll see... Beyond that, the ens et al definitely suggest some sort of seasonal repulse might sweep over the continent - actually...the hemisphere. That's a warm wave number look. I do point out that when these warm looks materialize as of recent decade(s) ...there is a tendency to over perform. This phenomenon of "heat bursting" will perfunctory need that scaffolding to take place within, so... Just a possibility here - Any little critters in the foreground, notwithstanding

LOL ...stop trolling

Fool me once ... 'cept, honestly, the only two events we could justifiably give time to following this year ...technically did not fail. Just sayn' Also, the 24th isn't really coherent enough to "fail" yet... This season: it really more than just seems our problem is not as much event-centric, and more just lower opportunity count. I gotta say ...who in the world that indoctrinates the ENSO into their seasonal projection would have ever thought that storm frequency (dearth therein) would be the problem in an El Nino that had plenty of time prior to this cold season to establish a hook in the atmosphere. For me.... I'm perfectly willing to entertain the notion that this warm ENSO was not as coupled as it may have looked - there are other indirect behaviors that evince that possibility. But ... humans are "attribution happy" and can't wait to categorize everything into tidy and neat certainties, as a failing bias in everything they do in reality, and of reality itself. Science is a simultaneous battle against the unknown and the endeavor of discovery, vs the predisposition to fit whatever's observed into presumption frames. ..digress

ho man... I gotta say... for those of us who also embrace reality with open arms and don't gaslight our own perceptions by attempting to convince ourselves the elephant in the room is but a bunny on the table ... too many times has that look above, spanning the last 15 years, resulted in 70+ F in Feb or Mar - it was just a matter of bringing that outlook closer range. And then, the forecasts would blanket call for 64 because people can't believe it ... But, we do have 7 to 10 days to eek out a winter here so ... let's see what these little critters and 24th signal can conjure up in the meantime.

Oh god please ... Trust me, there are those of us out here that feign enthusiasm for winter on Feb 15's after 75 straight days of Meteorological inches up the butt winter. save for two storms, that is ... lol

Except that it has factually per what has actually really modeled to be trending S

Knowing the global temperature curve of the time ... prior and since, it does intuitively suggest there might have been some kind of feedback that was endemic to mid latitude N/A. ...thinking vestigial effects lingering from the Dust Bowl era... It would be interesting to know what was going on in Eurasia, S. America and Australia - almost wondering if the spikes in that 1940/early 50s era might be weighted by said N/A warm bias.. c/o NASA

I don't believe that was an "assertion" to be taken as an aver of fact. He's not that stupid - no...people are being too sensitive. It was a tongue in cheek sardonic poke at the predicament of it. That's how I read it. That's how it should have been read.

OH I don't know. I wasn't impugning ... I heard about the snowy year. But I didn't know of the temperature stuff

We have to think of this along deltas. The delta is consummately going to be pointed in a warming direction - all told science included. But that's not absolute. We're not standing on the sun for acknowledging that objectively, here. Of course we can still sustain a winter - What does sustain mean, anyway. If it means matching "expectations" ? NO, that will never happen. There's only so much heroine in Earth's atmosphere... But everyone also just leans the expectation too far over the line relative to all input anyway. In 1995-1996, the greatest winter I ever experienced for longevity...we couldn't even sustain it the whole way. We had a 2 or 3 week melt down in the midst of it that put the stank on the phrase muddy thaw. Winter came back and persisted into the first couple of weeks of April. But all that aside... the probability of sustaining winter for longer durations ( keeping it ambivalent like that), is going down. That much isn't up to my confidence, ...so long as the world keeps warming and these materialization of consequences continue to offset, there is no other conclusion. But "going down" is often interpreted as rock bottom in the panic prone withdraw syndrome of the d-drip hopefuls.

The problem I have with all that is that if the MJO wave mechanics are less coupled to the hemisphere in general ...that doesn't logically mean that the absence of MJO influence should "stick" the hemisphere anywhere - the MJO is rendered less effectual ... that's what that should mean. Nothing else. Folks are trying to create their own attribution models ... some of them may be okay, but we need to remember: this is all out here in the hoi polloi of conjectural storms that are vastly more violent than any K.U. bomb that's ever occurred ...

Coldest? I thought it was just snowy...

It makes it all problematic. It does impose certain challenges to attribution when cycles, vs changing the wholesale planetary system, ...obscure one another.

Wait a minute ... I'm lost I guess. Forky made a comment about the West Pacific warm ocean muting the MJO's mechanics. He may have been a bit brutish with his assessment that there will never be a winter ever again - personally... y'all too sensitive to tongue-in-cheekisms. Least, that's what I took that as. Sardonic/droll humor. Something is fucking up winters. That's in the data. Not only that, there is long list of papers published over this last decade, discussing the empirically demoed alterations in the global circulation patterns. These are damning data and logically derived papers - We should stop stomping on everyone and accusing them of troll because their voice implicates and/or posits causalities and consequences. I'm not defending Forky here ...I'm just not seeing that what he said is really that bad. MJO's haven't been coupling as well to the hemispheres, nor have ENSOs ...

OH right ... I remember you guys were coming at that from the perspective of cold loading/availability. Yeah, I was just going with a system - heh...figure we need that first or the rest of it's irrelevant. As it were, the cold sort of got better as we neared. You know, while on the subject, I noticed that on the day itself, it seemed the cold relaxed a little?

I don't have a problem with putting the posit forth ... I've opined already re the apparent uncoupled ENSO times. It's intuitive to at least ask the question -

Folks may think your just trolling and ... I don't know, maybe that is your intent. Either way, this may be entirely true wrt the MJO ...

Here comes my mercurial post of the day - despite all protestations re the pattern and what can happen and all that... that is highly compartmentalized and an effort to remain unbiased behind making those reports. personally? this winter and all of it going forward from here on out can go f itself. I wish it would not only heat burst, but stay there. But, since my personal druthers and hopes and dreams seldom couple up with reality, there's no sense pining about what cannot be prevented. Such that one last +PNA surge on the heels of a -EPO cold dump, together with a trough amplitude in the ens for those days ... still needs to be analyzed fairly.

Mm, not sure I entirely agree (bold) ...the PNA was in +delta in the days leading. That said, partially agree in that what occurred didn't really appear to be tied very well to planetary scaled ( R-wave) forcing. It was sort of a sub-indexer. Be that as it may, it did propagate through a back-ground +d(PNA) so all else being equal it was more favored than not. Unless I think maybe you mean a very obvious physically/realized pattern featuring? ... Yeah, wasn't a canonical west ridge east trough flexing going on ... but, a lot of the 'forcing' comes from the non-linear/2ndary wave function. The PNA moving in the positive direction is analogous to the non-linear presence (i.e., it cannot always be readily observed ) I'm sure all this means a great deal to everyone reading it LOL

I know.. I added this to clear up, "You see ... I'm not talking about you ...me or whomever getting angry and losing it. I mean everyone gets pissed off - it's human. I was referring to the pre-calculating, 'set the coffee down' in preparation like a box of kleenex and lotion types. The internet also attracts those seekers - " those that actually accrue their joy from it.

Sounds 'bout right (bold) ... I'm not a sociologist ( first and foremost) but ... I do enjoy attempting trenchant observations of social group idiosyncratic BS ... catching it in the act makes it! haha. But even individual behaviors... I don't have a psycho babble degree, but I do have long years of experience suffering by the vicissitudes of humanity. I'm always suspecting x-a-omega ...then reading about it later and finding out that my personal posit was essentially correct, posits that are drawn from experience..etc. I like to drill down into the "reason for the impulse" to begin with though - that origin is what really defines the real assholes. You see ... I'm not talking about you ...me or whomever getting angry and losing it. I mean everyone gets pissed off - it's human. I was referring to the precalculating 'set the coffee down' in preparation like a box of kleenex and lotion types. The internet also attracts those seekers -

haha...I like it... "Web-rage"

NYers would probably be dreaming of the recent ICONic solutions ... persistent 4" snow burst implicated by the latter weekend thing.

Yeah well... perhaps some cynical overtones to the following, but any engagement with the hoi polloi ... good luck. The internet comes along with a downside ... It requires some sort of formal disciplined sociological research, but the anonymity provides negative re-enforcement of behavior ... even attracting those that have twisted their socialization to the point where that's really how they prefer, or feel most comfortable, interacting with others. It is what it is.