Typhoon Tip

More of a personal philosophy but "luck" to me is really just the uncertainty of not knowing what, and perhaps most importantly, how much all the variables are that have input into a given field of observation. If you know all that information ... the outcome becomes academic. So you rolled snake-eyes at Crapse. You got unlucky... However, if you knew what all the variables were/are that effect(ed) the system of dice rolling, uncertainty almost ( but only almost...) vanquishes. Being able to predict the future dice rolled snake-eyes was all but certain. You no longer call that luck. It's a not a knock on anyone. There's ultimately a limit to how much one can ever know. Hell ... photon double slit experiments won't allow you to observe the photons - only something that is like photons, because the mere act of doing so ( spooky ) acts as if the photons know you are looking and then deviate from ever repeating experimental results. ha ha.

Heh... wouldn't shock me if the 00z Euro is more correct on that Friday result. we'll see... but I've observed hundreds of those type set ups where the front's dynamics are ripping away and abandoning it, leaving the only triggers to be the vestigial pressure well/convergence along boundary itself. It causes early eruption over N-NE PA/SE NY, and those cells then Pac-man right of the gradient and choke us off. ...and all we get up our way is anvils and light rain. One or two oreographic/terrain CBs west of Concord NH or something...

This is probably a bit outer field relative to this discussion stream but ... I've noticed a coherent difference in the behavior of regional flora this spring. Namely ...healthier. Best flowering shrub species year in probably decades frankly, at a regional scale here in the NE. My family in Michigan also reported to me ..well asked me really, what's up with that. I've also noticed a much, much denser airborne and ground deposition of pollen this year than I have anecdotally observed in quite some time. Now, I don't know what is causing that ... but I was toying with the notion that lowering toxic aerosols(...even if the ppu mass was always considered too minor or not ...) might have something to do with it. I haven't noticed much else different other than the sky - which it, too, is a more unadulterated blue... I'm willing, however, to leave that out of the supposition, though, because it's probably impossible to assume/parse out cloud versus particular aerosol contribution to the sky purity. I'm a big fan of cause-and-effect, and I am also quite suspicious of coincidences. Intellectually ...yeah, we have to vet everything through a scientific process that considering the enormous scale of a planetary system, will probably take a long, long time to prove. But my heart of hearts keeps telling me that entire planetary system warm burst, and subsequent hugely proficient floral biology ... might be indirectly/causally related? Just and idea.

I don't think these ENSO's are forcing the atmosphere outside of 20 N/S proficiently enough for that - particularly in the summer when the integrated gradients are weak. Weakly hemispheric coupling would likely flop over into the first half of autumn. I suspect this autumn will go like they all have tended to over the last 8 years... some kind of 'smells like snow' cold snap in latter October through early December, which may even support snow in air ... interceded by other times when it's +15 diurnal unbelievablism - we'll blame it on Nina but ... wild variability in autumns has been the new norm regardless of what leading indicators suggested. Then, ... we'll settle off into a wind scarped AN winter with one or two below periods and a lot of tortured events that looked promising on D10's, but failed to pass successfully through this de-amplifier gauntlet of the D6 modeling game ... Either way, if and when the "storms" come ( for lack of better word) it will consummately only be 50 to 70% of the original appeal in terms of actual storming. Next February will have a week in the 80s ... and March will feature a cat paw Nor'easter with snow in the Monads, and while winter enthusiasts cry about it ... PF will choose that moment in time to tell us how the winter up there was surprisingly productive everything considered ( in optimistic tenor). May is obliterated by cold BDs unrelenting... and the summer is a 83/78 "above normal" CC season. ... April's are a piece of shit regardless of what geologic epoch so no need to characterize - Rinse and repeat for the next 10+ years, while adding decimals to temperatures.

Signs emerging ( perhaps right on schedule ...) that this may be more of a seasonal warm departure. Period is still the 17th - 22nd. The end is negotiable. It's not very clear at this time that there's a new pattern modulation out there but there are hints of this settling off into a AN/neutral oscillation look, after the initial wave. This is starting to remind me a little of 2018 July, when the modeling began showing the big dawg 590 + heights in a large ridge node, but was missing the key SW heat released air mass injection. We can "home grow" heat just fine, which is what happened then - however, we miss the opportunity to really suffer ( lol ). But that will take the edge/history off the ceiling if/when we don't get the 24C 850 mb pulses involved. The high non-hydrostats will allow multi diurnal thermal aggregation to expand the hydrostatic heights, and you get one of these heat waves that's like 90, 94, 97 because it takes that long at our latitude to "fill" the expansion room. I'm sure less of that makes sense ... but the take away is that the guidance ( ensemble means) are missing some parametrics that would make this remarkable at this time.

2018 4th of July weekend not ringin the door bell yet ? lol remember that? 111 at Bedford in the GFS

You might just be begging for this in about 9 days . well not 'you' personally. It's just that, when in that moment your struck with a sensation of not being able to get away from it, you submerged in heat in every direction ... how satisfying a gust of cold wind would be right then, yet it's thousands of miles away. Or may as well be... Next week arrangement has the mid troposphere to surface Hades look about it... Like Mt Washington might set a record. Superlatives aside ... I am getting a little concerned that this may be heading toward one of those 'synergistic heat bombs,' like one of those phenomenon world over - we've not had one of those yet. It's when the models and indicators say X happens, but what happens transcends and goes beyond. They are typically not well forecast because the are empirically resulting beyond what they should have. They are still less common than the standard seasonal heat wave. We are obviously far more confident of that arriving, first. However, I don't think it is impossible to get Logan to 100 and freak 8 degrees on a west NW, CC-enraged synergistic heat bomb breeze ... like what happened in London... or the Pac NW ... Or France... these are similar latitude mind you. In fact London is N of Caribou Maine... It's all a matter of synoptic circumstances tapping into this (apparent) non-linear constructive interference phenomenon that's been increasing in frequency. And they really are not modeled well, because it is all based on the interaction of emergence' then 2ndarily constructively interfering... The models don't model that - I don't think D.C. to PWM has had quite the same thing as that, or what these other regions have suffered. It will come home .. it's a matter of when.

I don't really get why it bothers anyone in the first place

EPS in looking like it's crossing historic threshold

slightly less at 500 mb non hydrostats but it wasn't enough to significantly change the implication comparing the previous the 00z run - not even noticeable. I'm singularly still very impressed that the the 2-meter temps D8-9-10 are 96 to 101 from interior SE NH to NYC. It's hard to get this model to be that warm, at that range.

C'mon Jerry. folk assign weather to unresolved internalized nostalgia/issues they need to get back to - it's personal. So much so that even though it isn't really controlling their lives - per se - the weather outside needs to resonate with those sensitivity or does cause them a form of discomfort in the headspace. ha

I didn't get the sense that he was calling off anything? It reads like he is conveying the model trends. yeah, he does say that he thinks the Euro will turn out correct, but he also offers uncertainty too, "...possible that the consensus could also be correct" - grammatically redundant but that's no crime. lol

two vectors: 1 ... that's the low end of the signal implication here - the totality of which isn't just the scalar telecon numerical values, but 'synergistic' ( complex -) dealing with pattern recognition shit blah blah 2 ... from this range, it's tricky to label amplitude ranges on anything, particularly related to heat. ... heat is the most guidance-fragile of all natural headline threats, where un-model-able cirrus plumes, or the core of the hottest wafting over at 2am ...etc etc, can make the difference between a 104 and 95 ceiling. As an after thought The problem with the ceiling in terms of probability and chasing records is that 99.4 and 99.6 might make the difference between a historic and non-historic day.

It's how Gaia gets rid of the problem I've written that in the past, my self, to muse and ponder how humanity cannot seem to see the wild fire through the weeds - but since they created the blaze, it's apropos, perhaps karmic that we "toad" ourselves off the planet. Wouldn't it be interesting if it was all just another way among many in which the planet seems to have a self-correcting mechanism... and we are about to be corrected Only in our conceits we seem to carry on with this quasi notion as though we're not a part of the natural order of this world; we are spectators making interesting observations along the way. We've only created this illusion of proxy over nature, yet are still inexorably connected to its various correcting schemes- It's almost funny ...I like the metaphor of turning up the heat cycle on the oven to 'clean it' too as a different take "Can't see the field through weeds" ... Humans, like all other life on this planet, really respond most proportionately to that which is directly sensible through the five: sight, sound, hearing, touch and taste. If advice does not immediately appeal to at least one of thase, to wit climate change does not appeal to any of them spanning daily existential life, the "risk" isn't perceivable. Thus, designated for philosophy rather than action. That is the metaphor to the toad's oblivion. What's fascinating about that ... humans are the most intellectually capable of predicting the future as a series of related consequences - it seems there's a war being waged between that evolutionary advantage, and the evolutionary advantage of innovation - which got us macro profligate 'entitlement' to resource using Industrial mechanized piggery. haha

Boom! You may recall, you and I lamented this probability about 9 days ago. I distinctly remember writing one of my patented tl;dr to make what is actually just a small point ... how '..It probably won't be as cold as that looks when it verifies' - or phrase to that affect. I think you replied, '...yeah I doubt it actually gets as cold as that looks and we'll find a way to somehow be above normal anyway' Not sure what the significance about the above paragraphs is oh yeah, I was going say, it seems this is more dependable now than folks are aware? Even the cold snaps in winter get shirked by 4 to 7 worth... and the nominal "between pattern temperature" seems to always just base around 1C above normal

and it has nothing to do with climate change, either. ...amazing

It's a trivial symbolism, really. To actually have a big heat signal land on the most intense solar week of the solar calendar year. I mentioned it for the sardonic value. There's nothing particularly qualifying beyond that. Although ... hm, as an afterthought, there's a reason why our big dawg numbers tend to happen post July 10. I bet if we graphed all the heat waves ( regardless of their notoriety or extremeness in the scalar sense) we'd find that the inter quartile density is probably between July 20 and August 10 or something like that. I may not be wrong - heh...admittedly anecdotal. But I've experienced too many busted heat wave forecasts and or unintended butt bang intrusions from the Maritimes due to poorly modeled circulation modes in Mays through early July's to believe that higher sun angles actually coincide with big heat around here ( our version of what big heat is...). By the time the mid summer arrives, those weird last minute ghosts of the previous cold season all but completely vanquish from the hemisphere, allowing the fragility of heat to succeed.

Too early for me to 'think' or suspect one way or the other. This is maxing out on D9 or 10 in the guidance that don't show a transitive heat suppression, like the GFS ( which always does come shit or shine, anyway...). Which D9 or 10 is inherently less reliable - though that can be offset some by heavy signal suggestions... Still, 10 days away isn't really helpful to determinism. The idea here at this range is only that we have a robust signal for warmer than normal pattern evolution over the eastern mid latitudes. I will add that the heat in the foreground ( this weekend...) I had not been paying much attention to. The pattern didn't draw my attention to being very important in that regard, all along, as it looks like seasonal maintenance oscillation with a warm thrust head of a cool front. Convection? why not. If it got a bit touchy with heat and humidity for transient time of it, it's not worth tracking error as far as how much - welcome to June. The thing later next week has multi source telecon and multi source synoptic cinema backing. But we've seen this in the past end up just being a warm sector. We have to keep in mind as fellow nerds and dorks ( haha ...) no one cares so why are we talking about this? But beyond that ... the models tend to exaggerate everything in that range. It's an interesting adaptation by the technology, et al, because big events, hot cold wet or white, tend to also materialize at longer time leads than said maintenance or garden variety departures. The upshot being ... the models will seldom miss big dawgs that way. It's just that they cry wolf, too

Did anyone else notice this sneaky oddity ? 576 nodal heights over the North Pole -

It's funny ( perhaps in a not so ha-ha way ...) how if anything, I've noted the 2-meter temperature renditions for all operational models in the D4+ range, are almost always NOT representing the actual 2-meter temperature. They seem to stop the extrapolations short of the real surface, stranding the high temperatures as much as 4-6 below what the synoptic metrics would arguably support. < D4 this is less obviously so, but they are always too cold at the surface in winter cold loading events, and too cold in the summer during heat loading for time periods beyond. Not sure why... The Euro has 23.5C over NYC D9 or around then, with WSW wind coming from Pheonix AZ, under a 850 mb Sonoran thermal shock ... 97 Okay. I mean that's plenty hot. LOL. But that's like a 810 mb tall BL mixing depth and probably a 104 if all that other juggernaut sets up like that. It does put up a 102 on D10 tho, which is the haha because the above vitals are still bangin away. Obviously, we're not talking about a prediction from this time range - we're just running over the parametric gunk.

Warmest implication as provided by the foreign operational models I've personally seen in several years ... The op GFS is blocky up over Greenland, driving a polar jet down through the middle Maritimes. This is an aspect that it wasn't engaging with prior to last nights runs. We'll see, but that's an outlier comparing to its ensemble mean, which does not engage in nearly as much (if any) +anomalies over the N NAO domain. The model is in fact an outlier to every model source technology there is, fwiw. This model seems to go out of its way to engineer heat suppression, I've noticed, as one of it's bias charms - it's not a good choice for ferreting out heat departures in the longer ranges because of that. That said ... it doesn't make it wrong every time. The ensemble means are impressive from all three sources; though they vary some with particulars, the principle sell by all three is for a class in +PNA --> -PNA instructive SW expulsion of kinetic air layer, into a highly coherent eastern positive anomaly. Pretty text book... doing so on the solstice is just an eerier bit of another impressive timing bonus.... This is all going back a week or more with broadly applicable techniques, and now ...the last three day's worth of runs with coherence. It's really more about being this clearly signaled, this far in advance.. We're still talking about beyond D7 or 8.

Hello Euro with heights closing in on 596 centered over the Del Marva. First time since we began ferreting out this pattern change have the Euro and GFS been agreeing in principle about magnitude in the E

The latter is probably the best way to go for now. Climate would infer heat false alarms in June modeling is probably more common than they are actually realized. We sometimes do get big heat numbers in May and June ( 1976 freak April). Obviously you know this... but the return on that doesn't match the frequency of model signal selling during this time of year. [enter reasons here ] our big numbers more apt to verify after the 4th of July Right now the the +PNA is scheduled to at least neutralize really this week. In fact, all the telecon sources are nose diving the index from an impressive +3 SD ... all the way to neutral by Wed? yeah, holy shit. But it stops descending around -.5 and then bounces around neutral-negative for a week. That's technically some kind of mode switch, but is it enough? The spatial layout(synoptic) of the ensemble means from all three, GGEM/EPS/GEFS, have +hgt anomalies N-NE of HA, with concomitant -hgt anomalies encroaching on the Pac NW and eventually western N/A. The natural telecon down stream is +hgt anomalies erupting over the eastern mid latitude continent. But this latter aspect ... for some reason the models are being coy with that. Some of them even attempting to not raise heights once in awhile which highly suspect. The operational versions of these have varied from shunted heat to more signficance with poor continuity. Yet again... after backing off, the 12z GFS comes right back with a textbook SW U.S. to NE conveyor torch ... This 200 hr outlook was originally supposed to be by this Friday, so we're also observing some can kicking too

may be able to salvage mid afternoon on... yesterday the fast moving convective/CAA clouds diminished at 6ish pm, and we had an 1.5 solid hours of warm sun. This 4 week window in the solar calendar can do that. Sat has a rapid motion with thinning already approaching the west side of ORH hils