Typhoon Tip

The latter mid range and extended GEFs are completely out of phase with the EPS across the continent. It's pretty obvious those recent GFS runs that walled off the warmth with a denial-enabling mix ptype boundary is just part of an overall tendency to speed the flow along and slip the N/stream into a different R-wave signal --> more confluence... --> eternally winter ... okay. I guess it could. The teleconnector projections (numerical) however, from all three ensemble systems, sides with the EPS. The signal is a warm one for the first week of March. The operational version of it ( and the GGEM by the way...) are less like the GFS' atmospheric Laurentide Ice Sheet facade sitting W-E through our region. Assuming the warm weighty side transpires, does it couch a more exotic warm run? For the record, I conjectured that for "concept awareness," not intending as an actually outlook. Synergistic heat bursts ( which by the way... Saskatchewan and N. Scotland both saw a heat bursts in January, where both registered 70 F ... pretty sick at those latitudes) behave like emergent properties out of noise. The models process atmospheric input in complex geophysical processes, out in time, but synergistic emergence is a by product along the way - similar to chaos/spontaneous materialization. They are present as long as background ... but disappears when it evolves into something else and abandons. I don't have much confidence in either the GEFs vs the EPS/GEPS. Simple logic would lean toward the EPS and GGEPs, considering that even the numerics of the GEFs themselves are warm. But the GEFs has contaminating transient trough modes within that general construct - which can sometimes take place, too. Flip a coin I guess. I'd rather 2012 knocked on the door but heh -

Not sure how people assess model performance ( I suspect by their own entertainment quotient -) but this thing for the 23rd/24th ? the models began corrected toward the synoptic evolution we are seeing by the time this was crossing through the D7 horizon - That's outstanding performance, non-subjectively. These are tools - just in case . It's no different than pining over one's ratchet set every 6 hours. Haha... no seriously... it's that ridiculous. They were never intended for one of these social media "psychotropic" phenomenon - if anyone cares to plumb deeper into this, they should acquaint themselves with "The Social Dilemma," and/or other documentary coverage like the 60 Minutes expose into the premeditated engineering efforts by social media enterprises, a story that broke when engineers with morality and conscious came out about creating an addictive medium. You get through that course work ... you see something similar happening in here - if perhaps inadvertently slipping into the same phenomenon. Folks get caught up in this as a adrenaline and dopamine release... some how, a codependent elation response does take place. We joke about it but it's really actually true.

Right - don’t have to imagine it

man, that looks like a prelude to an ice storm for f's sake

In fact these operational GFS runs aren't even waiting around for that ..they seem to be outpacing these new teleconnector motifs. I think it's pretty squarely Scott's fault -

If we tandem a -NAO with the -PNA, like these immediate last 2 or 3 model cycles have begun doing ( particularly in the GEFs) than kiss the warm up good bye. Oh it'll be milder ... by virtue of the sun alone, but the confluence steps up and that won't allow much warmth N/E of OV

Depends on the setting. The sun really is an offset factor now - much more so than even a week ago. Take a similar afternoon back then, and you wouldn't have that same affect. Today we disk golfed Buffum. When exposed to the wind off the backwater lake the chill made it horrible. Get around the other side of the groves where the sun blazed and wind dropped off, the fake warmth lied its way to 60.

We lost orchard crops, twice - stop dude

what - you guys just invent interpretations based on the moods of the moments. Statistically, Aprils and Mays have had significantly delayed green-ups in the last several years ... because despite whatever early balm flashes occurred, there was growth stunting cold deep into budding season.

Both it and GFS do

Which ... no sooner do we recognize the potential there, the GFS summarily starts engineering ways to defeat it's own signal

Actually … no. If I read that right, it’s incorrect. WV heat capacitance is ~1.9. CO2 is ~.8 but the problem is, when CO2’s heat trapping capacity is added to the atmosphere, it causes the water vapor to increase the evaporation rate, which adds more water vapor mass to the gaseous medium; this accelerates the total heating.

Right … but we’re talking about the weather pattern. yeah temperatures doing whatever. But we should suspect they would have been above normal whether Nino slid underneath them or not tho -

I’m not sure the weather pattern has been very El Niño like tho.

We’re saying 70 but that’s low balling these recent departure events. I can’t speak to “Wiz’s chart” but I stood witness to 79 and 82 in two different Febs since 2016. Two Marches hosted an above 85. I’d also suggest that typical early warm synoptics brings the warmest readings to the Mass NE and SE NH. It is not uncommon within a week of these occurrences of early heat breaking down to observe a robust -NAO

May as well throw May in the hooper with Aprils too

70 F at most climo sites on March 1 and … everywhere else, is between 25 and 30 abv nornal Let’s not belittle the matter. It’s not that common. Doing so as often as it has in the last 10 years is alarming. But these occurrences have couched 80 as well.

Ended late on the 31st with an epic BD 91 was the high t at UML wx lab 9 am on the 1st of apr it was 39

GFS is trying to set the table for a heat burst ... 580 non-hydrostats to NYC fits the telecon distribution leading and during the D10-15 range. Despite the long lead, there are some long leads that are just a wee bit higher confidence than mere noise. There's more to this than just that though - I have it in the back of my mind that these Feb-Mar-Apr bizarre "heat bursts" where temps soared to 80 or higher that early in the year on so many occasions over the past 15 years I've lost count. This is clearly an attribution issue - not going to get into it.. you believe it or you don't. But these extraordinary heat explosions began around the time that all these empirical accelerations in GW became incontrovertible. That's the case for it ... I'm interested in recognizing scenarios that host those events - but quite intuitively, they occur inside warm scaffolding. Having a every telecon there is in or accelerating into a warm mode post the 24th of the month, while operational runs have begun rolling a ridge E of 100W, certainly fits. So we'll see if this manifest in some kind of ( yet again ) absurdly early heat, or if it is just another ordinary warm episode.

I told him there's still a system there? hello - Beyond that ... I'm just being as objective as I can regarding where this system stands as as of 5:30 pm on Saturday February 17 2024. Part of the issue with my own involvement thru yesterday was that I didn't have time to study the full suite of techniques I normally use. I was heads down at work all week... But last night I had a chance and there's some pretty prevalent red flags. I can assure you, I don't sway emotionally with modeling idiosyncrasies - if that's what you mean? To wit, this is not mere nuances to overcome in guidance. There are wholesale manifold changes in the Pacific that should not be ignored if one is either in prediction efforts, or just needs their expectations to be well founded. Do with it what you like. It's up to you.

The Euro still passes at sub 990mb low between ACK and the BM, fwiw. It's just that like yesterday, it doesn't for some reason mechanize appreciable QPF on the western side. Interesting That could be the back ground negative interfering physics of a massive pattern change entering the processing. It's like the Euro's fighting it? What's actually happening is the scaffolding for a storm ( at all ) is rapidly in collapse between the 22nd and 25th. The western limb of the PNA in fact entering a -PNA construct ( robustly so, too ...) with such rapidity that the eastern limb is still vestigially carrying NW flow over Chicago where is the attempted amplification while that is happening. It's a race before a whiplash pattern sweeps the continent. I mean it is right on the heels of this. It kind of reminds me of the March 2014 storm - the one that only hit the Cape. The cold over the eastern Lakes, here and SE Canada, wrapped into it and rolled on up into the Maritime and left spring in it's wake. It was a bitter end to the year to miss the pig storm by 'that' much, only to do push-ups in mud season. So anyway ... these last 2 or 3 cycles of modeling appear to be giving into the eastward push.

This just smacks of the type of spring that will set up at 84° in Albany while it’s 39 in Boston

I echo that sentiment, Will I saw a bunch of stuff last night that made me want to close the book on this 23rd/24th scenario… I pride myself for objectivity, but I’m still not numb to difficulty garnering enthusiasm when it’s been really pulling teeth just to get two events of any worth out of an entire winter. …but we know the odds overwhelmingly favor, if not a bowling ball a couple if not several periods of Labradorian urine after what ever that warm-up entails

There’s actually some chance there won’t end up with a very organized event, either, from what I’m looking at… saw some stuff last night that made me wanna pull the plug. We’ll see. But it’s difficult for me to see how it survives both index Charlie Browning, and model amplitude —> attenuation.

It's probably the looming inevitability that July is still coming