Typhoon Tip

The bold isn't really true, though ... not mathematically nor in practicum ( I figure you're just being hyperbolic, granted - ) Confidence may not be very high - it depends on the leading circumstantial indicators. If it makes anyone feel any better, ...we pointed out that this amplitude/+anomaly was lacking the 850 mb thermal injection/release from the typical source geographies - that might have been a clue that the models were overstating the heat? - just a suggestion. For whatever reason they had, Brian and Scott were also mentioning that the numbers appeared too lofty. I mean, we pick and choose what "data" we want to use. If these constraining ideas were incorporated, that might move the confidence arrow up or down. And there's some concept relativity there, too. Like, we could say we are "higher confidence in the models being too amplified with temperature results" say - Op ed: part of the problem ( not you per se - ) is that society has developed a kind of lust for dystopian headline-able events - it's really a kind of 'soft addictive' preoccupation. It sort of began in the latter 1990s whence telecom art of dissemination went through a tech advancement boon ... "doom scrolling" as it were, has become an entertaining pass-time and even trigger for some. People have access enough to data that they could formulate their own impressions but that is rife with problems. The shimmering sophisticate nature of the populous is definitely going to synthesize reality with the utmost unbiased usage of various data inputs LOL The models sending their triggers big numbers heh

Mmm what's happening is more than just labeling the Euro. The Euro was a 1-3 F warmer than other guidance, ... not a huge margin firstly. Should this actually become more of a pedestrian heat anomaly they are all guilty by association as they all spent many run cycles in the high 90s. Just op ed: something unusual is happening with this pattern. It seems the ridging in the mid and upper levels are quasi uncoupled from the surface - somehow... The models are placing fronts under 590 heights, with very little or no trough inflection at mid level. This is not typically happening like this

It's as though the models are uncoupling the low levels from the mid level synoptics. Not just the temperatures inside the range of this "heat wave" ... in all three, Euro GFS GGEM, there is a cool front ending matters by Thursday afternoon at this point. Thing is, there's very little or no 700 to 500 mb construct that suggests a front should be there that early in the game. They're moving a weak front with a ton of temperature modulation capacity, into and under those towering heights. It's a little odd. One aspect (sort of intangible ..) about this thing is interesting is that the operational models have been fighting the teleconnectors from the get go. Even if the telecon's are losing correlative value do to seasonal skewing etc ... the spatial synoptic layouts of the ensemble means have also been very impressive. The two support(ed) one another.

Yeah, the model has refreshing lower DPs and cooling temperatures particularly centered over N-central CT in terms of biggest physical whiplash awesomeness that everyone wants -

Yeah, no one in their right mind would see this layout as being different ...

Agreed. Been thinking 97er heh. I think the heights are left sort of gutted. this whole situation would soar/perform better with that 850 mb/sw injection. The pattern isn't over though from what I'm looking at. Looks like the -PNA may send another ridge.

It's like that in Kalamazoo, too

Turning into a refreshing looking front on Saturday ... nice. I was thinking based on the mid level configuration the models were too aggressive with the inevitable boundary but the Euro's got the back door look at 500 mb now. so we'll see.

And now they're not that high. LOL ... I mean eastern IN and western OH is exactly where it's dried. weird It's probably not significant to the big picture.

Leave it up to y'all to quibble but NWS is giving us this

Lot of mix 60s DPs showing up out in the IN/OH region now...

We'll likely recess this positive anomaly we're in ( the models appear too aggressive with fronts over the weekend but MCS activity may also get involved/obfuscate matters...) but the general -PNA scaffold remains in place, so this kind of signal in the operational GFS' extended has more relative merit. Feel higher than model climate confidence for eastern ridging - obviously less so for details.

Hey Brian, looks like some mixing has commenced as DPS are more 70 to 73 across the southern Lakes and IN/OH. The NAM appears reasonable relative to hr 12z fwiw -

Home grower season, right on schedule.

There's an element of discovery in every entry into a new pattern - which this is... The heights are evolving faster than the surface is catching up. If you look at 12z's initialization on this NAM run ( not saying anything that happens afterword has much value one way or the other ...) we are already over 582+ heights within a recognizable heat -related configuration. I've seen it be 98 like that. Again, the 850 mb is missing from this - or is yet to catch up... etc. Yet it's 75 at 11. Point is, this is coming in like a wall. Bursting forth is probably apropos. I don't think today, lagging as it appears to be, will be of much useful indication or offer much value in the area of "correcting" based on now-cast/present behavior biasing. I was noticing that the 850 mb rise from 13C at dawn to 16 or so by 21 Z... continuing to rise toward 18 or 19 Tues at dawm. We may even have a late high temperature today. Like we creep to 84 not realized until 5:30 pm ...then the lows tonight stay relatively elevated. It may be more like how tomorrow's behavior goes; telling us something about Wed. There's going to be some cumulative effect thereafter. Like the lows Wed night should be higher than the lows Tues night, even though by then...both overnights will be embedded in the same synoptic circumstance. That's just the battery charging from two days -worth of insolation vs just one... Thursday night could be quite impressive for that matter. We'll have to see how the DP advection fits into that. If we get a metalic 74DP in place under a 95 or 96 afternoon, that night may stay 80 in urban layouts.

This may be earn me some googly eye emoji's but ... you know, when it's 52 F on Sunday mornings with no snow on the ground and not particularly muddy, that is a terrific time to engage in outdoor sports. It's not hot. It's not cold. I've grown to appreciate the opportunities outside of home, too. Doesn't mean I don't want big winter expression. I still dork out for that too. But just sayn' ... activities like disc golf and tennis me and crew like to do doesn't get shut down that way.

I was just looking around at obs and actual sfc features ( ha) I'm wondering if the NAM isn't as bad as we've been thinking. That warm front has 73 to 76 F DPs west, low to mid 60s east. We may see some drying from DVM associated with rising pig ridge heights... also if the wind can bend into more of a WNW direction..etc, but if the 850s mb is "only" 20C and we turn the air into a theta-e miasma, that would stymie down a Euro look. Actually, the MET has 97 at ASH on Wed so -

We'll get a snow chance between the 20th of October and December 3rd... lubing up the nostalgia no doubt. But ultimately a time span featuring whiplash variance between 'air smells like snow' (and actually can if there's a synoptic injection) then back to 83 F near or at records... Then, as the winter gradient ( hemispheric scale ) really sets up ...this will expose the butt banging that's become mid latitude winters ... dominated by strong mid level latitude height compression --> velocity saturation, which tends to limit blocking ... 43F winter results. Sometime in February, we start backing out of that regime by passing back through that autumn variance. This will last through April ... a time in which we'll have a couple of historic warm bursts chances, interceded by late season blocking that gives hope for an exit blue consolation storm. ---- That above characterization appears to have become the predominating Oct-Apr signal, regardless of any ENSO this or solar that, or blah blah-blah blah-blah ism we can articulately muster to explain why that winter will actually be winter. Because climate change is forcing this new paradigm (what ever it is...), subsuming the Rockwellian impression of what seasons mean.

Absorbed in the +D(hgt) suppression. Just my take ...

Noooo heat for you, ONE YEAR!

Ha ha... are you looking for the excitement and dystopia fun over the headline status? We have better luck with blizzards - although ... yeah, those seem to be a dying art form around here because you know, climate change is not real ( while makin' 'merica great agin' ) lol

We don't have the "edgy" 850 mb thermal inject into the ridge, that's why. That's been a concern from the get go in the modeling. The Euro did offer 22.5 on a couple of runs a couple of days ago, but has since been shirking 1/4 degree per run and as of last night's 00z it seems to have come back to the pack ... capping 20 or 21 C... That's not outrageous. It's perhaps unusual in and of its self to have non hydrostatic heights so high - I pointed this out that it's possibly historic for that metric alone, though quite unknowable. We've observed 24C waft over the region over the decades at one time or another, and every time that has happened, something interfered from fuller realization. In 2018, we had a magnificent ridge expression and only manufactured 20 or 21C in the 850s, too. The single day of near or at outrageous heat in 2011 July took place at < 590 non hydrostatic heights. Heights alone are not enough - we need the thermal seeding. Not that we're complaining.. heh. I mean, we really don't want 24 C at 850 mb injected into a 596+ dm heights, then worked over for 3 consecutive days of solar leading to aggregation. Think we can drain the concern for synergistic event at this point and go with high end seasonal heat wave.

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but there is a signal that heat may reload after perhaps a 2 to 3 day reprieve

Ah yes. 2011

I’m not sure where you’re located? But it was 75 to 78 common around the home sites here in northern Middlesex County Massachusetts. bit warmer than April and May climo , also considering what can typically happen in April and May around here in our climate. What happened today? Should have zero influence expectations later in the week. it’s kinda like the hot hand fallacy in Crapse