Typhoon Tip

it's in your imagination... we're still in the solar max until August 2nd or so

whatever it is ...it's growing on decking surfaces around the shaded elementation. It may not be black mold exactly, but the stuff in my bathroom worries me. I keep looking for it and have a hot bleach water mixture on stand by - it seems to kill it almost immediately. I have an exit fan in the bathroom but it's old and needs to be replaced. I want to have a match blow out at the base of the door when the fan is on to make sure it's actually trading air and moving outside - not sure what's in there is easy to the task. I'm scheduled to have mini split conversion for heat/cooling on the 22nd of July. Psyched for that. .. But my buddy had those put in and says they do have moisture settings so dehumidifying option - it's my first venture into this tech so we'll see. Need to replace the exit fan either way - with that and the mini splits should be better for moisture controls. CC's a bitch.

It's been the leitmotif going back a few summers. Early heat or early heat threats then decaying into a semi-permanent trough or weakness along 90W ... We end up blocked off from continental heat while stuck in a soup pump. Haven't even been many Bahama Blue patterns for it, either. Just shit sultry DP miasma packing east of Apallachia. Strong argument for central air with techy moisture controls because I've been seeing more and more of these mid summer black mold blooms like on outside fixtures, and have found it in the corners of my bathroom - insidious nasty filth. ... I'm seeing signs that's trying to set up yet again

Should be in the mid 80s around here today folks. I noticed this often enough in the past ... it seems around 9 am the day's opinion becomes official. LOL.

Bold above: Part and parcel in the synergistic heat wave phenomenon, which differentiates from seasonal heat wave climatology.

Interesting... because I've noted an early bias toward a quasi +AO rest state. I mean not huge, as that would imply. I'm not sure what thresholds are like prior to August 8th -10th ... which is the hemisphere's solar maximum. Post that, we're dimming rather fast up there. But prior to, it might be that +AOs have better retention capacity after early August, and that the +AO we've seen ( low amplitude ) is just not enough? hm

no... well that too, but I mean where the dp is driest

I feel like my point in sarcasm from the day before was made fairly well. Whenever you see risk assessments elevated east of ALB ... assume the scenario finds challenges to realization. There's that ... but in this case, I don't think the mid level lapse rates were helping matters. There was some organization into small linear segments but watching rad loops, it seemed the situation was a hybrid between that level or organization and just pulsing. Better lapse rates and perhaps a little more direction component to the total bulk shear... if we'd passed that over/through that 90/75 things would max better. Timing that 12z delivery over SE NY was useless too... We were vil choked across much of the area and doomed from the get go.

It's remarkable ...

https://phys.org/news/2024-06-extreme-summer-climate-weather.html You know... just an extending comment on this article above. I was particularly intrigued by this statement/excerpt, "... Very large and strong heat domes, like the Northeast event—which reached higher into the atmosphere than any previous June event— " I was suspecting that this was true - relative to climate. We've seen excessive ridge heights tower to nearly 600 dam in the past, but not prior to July. Certainly ... not to 40 N. I hadn't bothered to find any sources that keep track of that metric, historically. This article indirectly makes the comparison/assertion. But what makes this interesting is that in the case of June 2024, this heat dome did not appear to receive an inject of elevated kinetic air layer from the west. I've referred to these type of phenomenon as "Sonoran heat release" - a geographical region that is perhaps more usefulness as an identifier. Probably just southwest heat release would be more precise. ... anyway, there is an all but codified hallmarked synoptic evolution that transpires, leading to a release event. +PNA traps air in the SW that is subjected to very high daily insolation. We can get a feel for this by looping WV imagery on satellite, during the +PNA mode, and noting the anticyclonic motion to the atmosphere over that region of the continent. Changes upstream in the Pacific than send a d(index) significant enough to alter the signature over the downstream continental mid latitudes, effectively bringing a heights falls toward the west coast --> dislodging the erstwhile trapped ultra hot air layers and sending them down stream. If/when that happens and the NAO is entering or is in a stasis +NAO ( rising escape latitudes of the westerlies, as well as tending to make the flow zonal through the Canadian Maritime ), the combination of these hemispheric scaled changes teleconnects to geopotential ridge eruption over the eastern mid latitude continent. We saw this series leading the June 2024 heat wave, but interestingly ... there wasn't a very highly charged air mass available from the SW in this case. Idiosyncratically, there was an early quasi monsoonal response taking place during the 'ejection phase', and this interfered with daily clouds and convection over the source region in keeping the 850 mb ~ lower. It's really the difference between the more common 97 type high temperature results in June 2024, versus "hot Saturday" in 1975, or the July 2011. This historically hot ridge ( or "dome" ), really left about 5 to 7 pesos on the field... Notwithstanding, the attribution aspects with CC were never really tested (imho) with the June 2024 event. A perhaps limited "syntergistic heat wave" is what really took place from the TV to NE regions. Simplest conclusion, it could have been hotter! Not only that, there is an identifiable series in the pathway to making that happen that appeared to be missing.

Now in addition to counties in PA ... the conspiracy has apparently reached the ECMWF CO's modeling operations branch ... .. because look what they've done. They've gone and diabolically seeded the model to hide any and all negative anomalies that would make this outlook even menial to climatology

Wow... I don't think I've ever seen a "B" hurricane this intense. I'm sure it's happened before ( right? ) certainly not that often -

Agreed -

Nope... over. that's the nature of the premature convectulation - now, watch CB bums fade into the eastern horizon the rest of the way, after the sun comes out in another 2 hours and it's 5 pm

getting light butt bang rains along rt 2

Operational GFS is at or > 570 hydrostats from D3 to D12 on 06z ... Almost that long on the 00z. Both are showing a low more WAR than other guidance, too. May just be a peregrination ... the ensembles have a -PNA in the foreground but tend to neutral way out there - but clearly ... the coherency and correlative usefulness is entering the seasonal low from the looks of things. Enjoy your tornados today!

This warm sector means bidness yo 77/74 here at dawn. Even FIT is 70 DP at dawn with a 77 over top. ORH 73/72 Arubian air mass.

Keeping in mind ... climate's also shifting a little. But yeah, I just mean in general. With those lower DP heat expulsions out of the SW that sometimes arrive on an early season ridge ballooning, it's going to be easier to 96 that ... Probably huge diurnals, too

N of about CON NH latitude by about another 20 or 30 miles on N it is hard to do it after spring. The reason for that counter intuitive assessment is because heat early typically is drier. It arrives 'over the top' and then additionally ... the vectors are downsloping as well. Once theta -e is densely injected into the air mass, the sun after the solstice at those latitudes is increasingly challenged to deliver enough energy to raise the temperature very high when the energy is being absorbed in water vapor. Most high heat at high latitudes doesn't accompany 70+ DPs.

You and I have talked about this in the past .. .almost a concomitant morning elevated complex of rains with embedded thunder... Suddenly it clears the hillsides are tinted blue in DP heat. boom

Not a hard guess when in the best of settings we routinely get fucked dude - what planet if you’ve been living on. Lol I’m just being ball busting sarcastic

If this doesn't start getting bowed further west ... have fun staring at CB bums over the harbor

I think I just figured out why the NAM is always coolest in the surface Ts. It's when transition from a cool air mass into a warm one that it does this. It's along the same lines of why it is so good at 800 600 mb layer WAA canceling snow and flipping folks to IP in the winter. Only in the summer, it is also warming that layer almost too fast ... and the surface then ends up under a capping inversion that's very difficult to mix out unless the sky is pristinely clear ... So much as thin layer of cloud and the NAM makes it too hard on itself and ends up with 2-m T that are too cold. It does tend to correct that once < 30 hours.. but this thing for Sunday was 20 21 14 ... then it was 22 22 14 ... now it's 24 22 14

huh ...still made a cheap 80 today .. 79.8 I didn't think we were going above 75 but so did FIT/ASH/BED

Something about it you know? it's evocative ... it's like you're listening to some music and it takes you away to some place in your imagination you've never actually been, yet are still nostalgic and miss being there. I think the reason for that is just because it's such a starkly different realm once it sets up. I mean sensibly... It's not even "hot" anymore... It's just light breezes in between bee-bee pixel down pours. It's different kind of warm humidity