Typhoon Tip

heh... the Bahama Blue pattern was seen by yours truly a week or so ago. I remember posting that there was suggestion - this rendition is actually pretty potent for short while because it's not just a trough or weakness along 90W with a S flow out ahead. A powerful WAR signal's getting involved. Its extending heights towering over 600 dm by the way, and it is bumping W through D4. It's vertically stacked over sufficient surface high pressure to orient the lower level pgf into a conveyor all the way up. The difference between those large scale features has a 20kt S wind burst from the along the Del Marva coast and G-string waters, all the way up. I tell you... seeing 581 dm hydrostatic heights at Logan for longer than 12 hours on the NAM FOUS grid is striking. It's probably the drag draft on the SE side of Beryl's death vomit ... Once that axis clear, the hgts will recede back to just 577, while DPs sluff off to 75 in due time. But for that period... that is crazy. The air will feel like metallic heat at 3 am.

was this cluster of showers over western MA/CT even modeled - I haven't been paying that close of attention to details.

It seems like even in micro formats people are always behind the 8 ball playing catch up with this thing. - walking humanity straight into the kiln

It's probably borderline irresponsible to say this but you're not likely to get that localized thing. Very high sigma events of that nature don't load that frequently. 6" of rain in 2 days into a topographic funneling was unique, not just for rain amts and rates, but into the circumstantial terrain. Just looking at the modeling and comparing, the event last year was an unusual low movement from PA to the ST L seaway. This imposed deep layer SSE inflow of high PWAT air ( relative to other thermodynamics), then impinging into the higher els and enhancing lift. Contrasting, this is coming over the NW arc of a coherent WAR ridge...which is along an anticyclonic curved trajectory. I have a feeling that yeah there'll be training but also a tendency to stretch Beryl's entrails along the contours of the flow ... sort of off-setting some of it, too. Obviously pay attention to it as it all nears -

I think I was confusing you're previous discussion with him with climate zones. You guys were talking about gardening/growing season climo - I guess. I think I even typed that while still having the former aspect in mind lol What I had in mind was about "climate bands". Like there's a distinction between lower M/A to upper M/A in both empirical data and sensible appeal, both. Just like there's a difference between the upper M/A vs SNE, C vs N NE. Having said that... these bands are shifting N - probably at the rate of generations. Although, like I was saying there is calculative reasons for wondering if that is accelerating. The other thing is that if you ...well, when "I" look these climate bands up I do not find them in codified NOAA/NCEP or NWS very readily. Results keep referring to global climate zone definitions. Like "Highland" or "Tropical" or "Desert" ... but not down to the discrete level whereby distinctions between ATL, PHL and BOS like that. I'm sure its out there somewhere

you think it's that shallow - interesting. I think part of the problem is that we are on a sloped curve. More importantly, the slope is not Y/X ... it is Y^2/X That affects people, and that in turn effects their 'intuitive impression' of how nature is changing outside the window. Personally I think it's further along than one half of a single growing zone - intuitively. Because of the acceleration in which this shit is all happening, the scalar values may say 1/3 ... 1/2 ... 4/7ths... etc, but 1 year later those are too shallow.

LOL... yeah that sarcasm was well earned by that particular model. the Euro used to have a definitive tendency to over dig heights into see Canada - like all these models' particular biases more expressive in it's mid and extended range. So that was 12z yesterday... 00z backed off, but still appears more trough comparing other guidance sourcing.

i think he means the NJ of the previous climate era. that's how i read that. the NJ of say 1990s has since moved N. likewise, NJ is now ... i dunno, Del Marvian from the same previous era and on and so on. climate is differentiating regardless, and that +delta value requires these "climate regions" migrating N. I guess folks have opinions on how far that is along the way therein. sure. although i feel there is some usefulness in that distinction the way he describes ( for one ... it's unavoidable - just a matter of time ). however, even if we are there qualitative and quantitatively in that objective reality or not, both regions are still within reach of a Feb 2015. like everything, it's a matter of diminishing returns. at some point we just sort of find ourselves in a point of NO returns. not there yet - ( although as an afterthought while on the subject last year's huge pan-planetary scaled temperature burst, air, sea and land unilaterally, happening so fast and apparently ... not really 'receding' - that should give some pause related to 'leaping' )

I remember speculating the bold was beginning to happen some 10 or 15 years ago. I used to rail on about it but stopped years ago when I realized that crickets don't engage in objective discussion -

I'm pretty sure ( personally ... ) at this point that throngs of humanity will literally be dying of heat -related "causality" one day, yet still, those same throngs of humanity will maintain a null mentality as to the why it is happening. Denial has become it's own religion, with the same predisposition to do so in those who possess the God gene - it's a real thing. Those that have the trait are something like 5 times more likely to devout ( some sarcasm here but who knows - ). But something like that is happening. Denialism as a phenomenon perhaps being motivated from that, within the general population density - as though it's manged to accessed that DNA trigger. It really does seem as though there is a 'faith' in the system correcting itself - like a predisposed belief or conception that that will happen. By extension... scheduling the Darwin Award.

https://phys.org/news/2024-07-june-hottest-high-eu-climate.html "..Every month since June 2023 has eclipsed its own temperature record in a 13-month streak of unprecedented global heat, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said..."

Euro's attempting to end summer in 10 days

Last year was like this... We had something line 20" of rain through mid August or more here in town. Then there was that 9" rain bomb next door in Fitchburg and Leomenster... but it was apparently localized. There wasn't nearly a pan-dimensional anomaly as much as there were individual counties that were way above. I often scratched head as to why there wasn't more flooding issues ( though the flashing and road scouring event in Leomenster is noted) - perhaps it was related to less than unilateral distribution into water sheds/river basins? Just fractals. I don't see why Brian has to necessarily be left out to date, otherwise. Just randomly repeating aspect that looks organized ... until it doesn't. muah hahaha. The models are flirting with a stalled subtropical conveyor look, with training potential.

you're paying dues for that mega snow strike back in 2021 while the rest of us were relatively screwed.

Freakishly powerful positive charge, multi pulsing lightning bombs. 10 or 12 of them. The ones I saw blinked 4 or 5 times. Some the loudness thunder in many years heard.

We're not going back

Just did 18 holes at Shaker Hills ( overrated course ) ... It cleared to open sun at hole 9 and the rest of the way was an incredible sauna. It felt like the DP had to have been higher than 75 out there, and probably was with irrigation and water hazards dappled around the course works. Man, the air was tinting blue against distant tree lines and there was no wind. We found ourselves hunkering in the shade while other people hit. Dashboard therm was 88 back in the parking lot but ... 88 over 77 makes the T sort of irrelevant because there's nothing about that that is "88" - -no way. 91 back down town. We got anvil debris and towers leaning now

yeah...smearing Beryl's road kill up along a quasi stationary boundary that's paralleling the flow for optimum repetition

The last several runs of the operational GFS have been above normal temperature. But that run in particular had like every day 89 with a handful of days at 105 … The mean was like 94 …93 something like that. That’s why I said in the aggregate. I’ve often thought an interesting metric would be to calculate the number of hours above 90 and the number hours over 70 … or find the curve and integrate the curve to find out which heat waves have the greatest “IHC”-or integrated heat content.

May be the hottest single model run I’ve ever seen for aggregate in that 18z kiln run

Some of the highest "modeled" DPs I recall seeing up in this region of the continent ... 75 to 80 from the interior Del Marva to ALB and BOS late tomorrow through early Tuesday. Temperatures are not even that remarkably high, yet 500 mb hydrostatic heights are almost 580 dm and in fact are down around PHL to NYC. That's about as dense with theta-e as it can really be -

I don't know about weeks n weeks... but there's a heat wave (seasonal ) signaled Mon-Wed this upcoming week. probably 90 to 95 in range

Yeah I'm not sure I'm biting on their surface layout just yet with that 500 mb look. That looks like front(s) stalling west of ALB and establishing the gradient ( weak ) SSW-NNE along the I-95 corridor Mon-Thur. Plus theta-e pooling

Yeah ..I'm willing to bet the DPs are in general not being handled quite right given that deep layer synoptic look there. Should be a little higher than the upper 60s. Euro really struggles to keep 70+ through the area in quasi Bahama circulation mode and the GFS seems to hold them down a little too. we'll see But that could all be the case without Beryl

Here's tomorrow PM "dewy" dps for the general audience