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Typhoon Tip

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Typhoon Tip

  1. same ... wind just picked up too a bit. jumped to 83/78 very Aruba like
  2. last year I had a DP here of 80 on two separate occasions. it's 78/76 at the moment ... but yeah, right up there. we were 64/63 at dawn but as expected, warm frontal surging getting single pixel down pours. 30 seconds of water boarding rain rates then nothing
  3. MDR is activating in time here ... said so myself earlier in the week, and probably so did others for their own methods. beyond that concept, meh. another 24 hours later, another 24 different ideas as to what that might mean out in space and time. yesterday at this time the larger scale 'cane climate aspects had trending favorably for EC ... 00z they look like dung... ( modeling on average). yet, this 12z GFS somehow manages to place a TC E of Jersey with 00z recognizable climate inference bottom line, no stock in any depictions beyond 120 hrs... maybe out to 168 but no agreed that it may not be the only system. the favorability for genesis probably last 7 to 10 days
  4. Depends on the IOH ( integrate ocean heat ). You're right that cyclone trafficking across a given region will tend to cool the surface waters, but ... if the overturning is doing so through a deeper thermocline than naturally the overturned column will remain warmer.
  5. should be some impressive sensible differences coming in here today with this warm front poised to surge through
  6. The headline zealots will love the 10 day Euro... ...setting us up to finally earn our own attribution badge ... actually, this could set up regardless to be fair. but that's like a 2 or 3 day easterly anomaly with tons of water, BEFORE a 'cane gets potentially sucked on in and up.
  7. This is precarious ... long way away, but it is closer to the canonical broader scale circulation mode - it's something like 80%
  8. No it was over land. This was clearly a rotating updraft at cloud materialization. but yeah... water spouts can sometimes register early. i've wondered in the past if that's just the higher moisture content helping to expose rotation more prolifically. Like there may be more rotation below common congestus cloud types that is just unknowable because there's no condensation. I was driving home from a day at Narragansett Beach once and we were heading back N on Rt 1 and as we passed through the s-breeze boundary/ up under the dark-based CUs there was a long rope funnel extending down from the mass and slopping horizontal. it was partially translucent making it hard to see .. .but that's no obstacle for the obsessive cloud nerds like myself.. - you cannot hide! I've actually seen small elevated 'micro' ropes tentacled out from the sides of random fair weather cu often enough. you just need sunglasses, patience, and obsession and you'll see them. granted those are different than wholesale rotating CU ... but there's a relationship. it's all academic really
  9. I saw a photo once of a small cu tower pre glaciation ..., with a funnel extending half way to the ground.
  10. Rt 2 along this eastern end and NE MA is scamming a beauty of a morning out of this theta-e tsunamis pattern.
  11. You'd have to know what the exponential value is to be precise. Than you can take the root ( determine )... like, maybe if it's the exponential increase goes by the square, than you take the square root of 8. something like day 2.8 or so. that point in time should stop the momentum. seems intuitive. heh, at least you're not giving the interviewer dead air, gaped mouth and vacant stair for an answer
  12. A little smidge of sarcasm in that, too but yeah ... there's been pattern misfortune, unrelenting, just as much. The thing that's sort of frustrating about this last decade since 2015 is that we really can't blame any subjective, or objectively poor winter performances entirely on CC - not that anyone is or has, just sayn'. It's perhaps academic to say but sometimes it needs to be stated: there's winters available on this planet down to 40 N. The acceleration of CC is very real, though. Ultimately it will damn the future. With 8 billion Industrial-advantaged oil-slaved inhabitants, that number's so large that if so many as 5% fail to abide by some sort of immediate remediation miracle... it doesn't matter how many trees the remaining 95% dry hump. The whole thing is untenable. In other words, we're still fucked as a species. People don't realize that destiny won't be survivable, not without a lot of hardships and major set backs. There is, maybe one hope at salvation. The same innovation that got humanity to a state of actually being a geological force on this planet (the "Anthropocene" as some are trying to codify), could win the race. When we sold our collective soul to this Industrial ways and means ... we also committed to it as our savior. Some rhetoric here but just saying that between carbon reclamation this, and plastic eating bacterium that and whatever "Humans will never fly" tech soon to emerge, puts us in a race between waking up from denial and complacency vs doom. Digressing...sorry. shit. But, the global temperature has risen 1.1 C since 1880, with most of it occurring since 1975. At least according to Goddard/NASA... Now, that does not include the global heat burst early in 2023 ...one which did not "settle back" The lurch stayed. That might push the decimal of that value a little. Not sure how much. Either way, not enough emphasis is put on the acceleration aspect. Very dangerous. The future can not be extrapolated using a linear inference ...unless we're fucking morons. I do think some of the unusual pattern behaviors can be attributable. The oddities have sort off served us "bad luck"
  13. heh what is this social media support group gonna be like when this winter’s zactly like the last 3 or 4 of em, despite all leading interpolated indicators, interpretations, seasonal forecasts and arguments
  14. Not that anyone needs to this said but ... not likely to last. But more so than just that, every global indicator there's a definition for is signaling warmth for mid month.
  15. It's interesting how we're coming at this from two different interest areas... I was mentioning in the Aug thread ( I think ) yesterday that Friday might have about a 9 hour window of Bahama Blue atmosphere ... having been hoisted N around the E side of Debra's soul. I always thought that an impressive transport phenomenon
  16. It's kind of an ugly pattern out there, huh. Sky aside though, the temperatures today are amazing! There's not enough impetus from that Canada to Maritime synopsis to really push the boundary S and clear us out. Meanwhile, WAR imposes ... this is causing a stationary cloud/ instability pooling that's wrung out for rain but is just sitting around now. So we wait on a trough amplitude to settle into the serm-permanent Cleveland nadir which pulls the the remnant smear of Debra N ...wee. exciting. I guess if we can boot-leg a couple of BN days out of this mess it's a nice reprieve from our new southern NJ summers
  17. yeah... MDR yes threat here, lesser likely than even the low odds climo from this time range. not without a wholesale index change
  18. My evil plan to activate the MDR next week is coming to fruition in the models ... muah hahaha
  19. I dunno if this going to hold up to any kind of attribution review ... but, it sure smells like it. Apparently a glacial ice failure sent the contents of a held back lake bursting. I'm also not up to speed on Juneau's recent travails. Apparently they've endured flooding recently, already. Unsure if it is related. So there's much here I don't know about Juneau .. However, anytime I read or hear about glacial lake releasing, that's usually related to CC in geologic history - regardless of scale.
  20. Looks like about 6 to 9 hour true Bahaman air mass transport... The models seem to be congealing around this boundary rocketing back N on Fri
  21. You wonder ( ...or imagine as a big bunner lol - ) if there's discussion down at FEMA over whether to pull the general evac trigger and start the diaspora out of the valleys.
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