Typhoon Tip

mmm i'm willing to add that a dearth of viable tw may be related. the identities of them over the intracontinental african region have been weakly looking to me, and the ejects off the typical sierra leone traffic routes have been down in numbers.

"big heat" climo's in pretty steep decline/return rate, anyway. By that we mean a T of at least 95 F I've personally observed that only two or three times by September 7, which is under three weeks from now - little perspective. we could still get some impressive HI's, though. 80s with TDs to 70 isn't too exotic. having said that... this cc -related aspect may modulate some. we could set up a marginal heat look and then get a synergistic goose. but even if so, we are losing sun power

Looks like the 18z GFS tried to go back warm

aside from the fact that if it's like today, in novie, the winter constituency's on suicide watch. it was 72 for a high today - exactly where I said it would be this morning ( shameless ha!). it's 'a little' below normal... sure. but not out of control. hate to play this tired card again, but we're suffering some acclimation loading here -

oh we had a low-grade heat wave sounding in place the whole way. no question some extraneous factors blunted potential there.

just a psycho babble hot take but what's really going on is that a handful ( more or less ...) of regular users ( of this drug haha) covet loathing summer, and only struggle to maintain acceptance. but they're like "spring loaded". at the first sign of anything that doesn't resemble it, it's all safe to come out now - it's gone

some are seeing today and getting carried away

yeah... i'm like, what?

well anyway. gfs has been attempting to foil warm ridges since 2015.. lol it's just that it's really unstable with warm patterns - it sputters with them. it's far more stable with cold/-EPO looks though. not sure why.

meanwhile,

ah yes. the coveted 'front loaded' winter. man, the last one of those ... Decembers of 2008 - 2010 ... ? i think it's been that long. mostly the winters have just been a game of breaking continuity but these cold intrusions don't even seem to be connected to the winter basal state, which comes in later. and when it does, it seems to lack l/w residence with quicker pattern turn overs, and also higher base velocities in the physical wind. folks should read papers like this ( no you per se ...just in general) https://phys.org/news/2023-12-jet-stream-faster-climate.html

it's the other way around most likely. but .. like i said, chicken or egg. i suggest the egg is CC ... and just like the gom and adjacent sw atl basin is also an inferno, so to has this accumulated in the sw-w Pac. it's just that the west pac is larger unobstructed expanse so is larger and more looming, but in either case...

it's not driving the walker cells.

although we've been observing cryo supporting and/or snow achieving air masses in half of the octobers since 2010, despite the -pdo. not sure these have extended down into the m/a.. but there's clearly been a shift toward buckling the patterns and sending cold anomalies under roll-over/ higher latitude u/a warm nodes and causing new england cold bursts earlier. interesting. thing is, they're not like persistent. they're in and out in 7 days, the month sometimes still end up above normal by a tick or two.

where's that coming from ? i've not seen any refereed material on that aspect. speculation: that is there as a cumulative effect of sea-surface stressing coming from the surrounding hemispheric mode(s) over the last 5-7 years. could be a chicken and egg thing, but i think of it as a 'barometer' ( ha ) of the times, more so than a driver.

again, an early winter showing wouldn't surprise me though... lol if november 14 through dec 10's or something is the best winter expression

okay, at risk of being sucked in - which i won't let myself... i'll just say, if it ends up within .5 of neutral anyway, logic dictates lowering relevancy when in that n/s range...

gfs' plot to negate any warm up in a week is almost complete, too.

yup, an early autumnal vibe. particularly when the sun slips behind one of those 20 minute pancakes - circa september 24thish

okay... i guess i'm describing more so a pathway to winter sucking giant donkey balls, and why ? i'm not in any kind of argument over whether the hemsiphere resembles whatever wrt to enso.

i suspect the enso will be too weak to matter against the din of these overwhelming other aspects. not much else. the ao being preponderantly positive is a bigger issue for me, as well. if so ( and it is robustly correlated to be ... ) it would be in a constructive interference with other mitigating stuff, muting enso forcing even more. i said the -enso may turn out weaker - i meant so on its own. but that's also hurting it's case as an exerting influence, granted - i'm not obfuscating anything - i'm just not considering any of that noise as factoring enough over the louder indicators. the hemisphere's destined to be velocity soaked and stressing telecon correlations - this is also being papered. I don't have a problem with those publications because matter of fact ...i've been railing about this since 2010

MJO desk: • During the past 2 weeks, the RMM-based MJO signal has increased in amplitude and is now located over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2). • Dynamical models are in good agreement regarding enhanced MJO activity across the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent during the next 2 weeks. • The MJO propagation across the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent supports an enhanced easterly wave train coming off of Africa in late August into early September. • Combined with anomalously warm SSTs, and the approaching climatological peak of hurricane season, this favors high chances for tropical cyclone (TC) development over the Atlantic Main Development Region despite the suppressed convective pattern aloft.

yeah, like that

yo Brian ... you might find this interesting. or not. but we were wondering if smoke particulates entrained into rain mechanics may also goose rain. " Pollution acts as cloud nuclei. " https://phys.org/news/2024-08-year-air-pollution-thunderstorm-danger.html very closely related -

i've noticed the gfs has actually not completely sucked pieces of cat shit when it comes to targeting genesis. i haven't looked very closely at it - could be it just happened to score when i checked so ...this opinion doesn't mean anything ... but, have noticed it enough that it seemed okay relative to having no clue at all