Typhoon Tip

not 'sea ice' per se, but is a close cousin. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/18/JCLI-D-23-0396.1.xml

A significant enough number of them have been a straight shot like that in the history books. It’s just the specter of 1938… And Gloria, those kind of long track buildup of anticipation

it's almost like folks are waiting for a difference, when it is far more obvious we are not deviating enough from the longer term reality (multi decadal) of arctic ice loss. we could have two relative 'gain years' back to back ( tho I almost doubt that is physically possible at this point) and it still would not deviate from that reality. because the next 5 years would just end up less than where it all was before the 2 gainers. until CC stops ... i see no other destiny. guess the purpose of this monitoring is to guess the day it is all gone? heh i will say this though ... my own observations/data over the years suggests that the rate of seasonal recovery is more important than the scalar value of the ice at the seasonal nadir - if one is in this for lag correlations on winter proficiency for cold into mid latitudes. may be something about the cyclic nature of pv integrity ... when it's strong early ( hence, +d ... ), it seems to naturally decay into years of better blocking by mid winter - perhaps because modes typically reverse ( but not always - ) every 45 or 90 days. this model that I am describing has always led me to more interest in monitoring the state of things as we head into october and november ... i have to say though, with the crazy pattern behaviors, non-dependability has my confidence rattled that any model is very useful anymore.

yup not for not but i stated 2 months ago across a couple of posts that there was a dearth in both frequency and potency of tws leaving africa. point being - to me - is, why wasn't the f(tw) and p(tw) taken into consideration during seasonal forecasting ? - or perhaps more apropos, when did that change? i can remember back in the 1990s ...whence colorado state u had formulated means to forecast canes with better than 50% success, and one of the key variables was the tw stuff. it seems the absence ( or weak profile ...) of that factor should/could have modulated forecasts much earlier.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/12/entire-earth-vibrated-climate-triggered-mega-tsunami#img-1 edit: actually that link isn’t loading properly… Just go to “the guardian” And search on this title Entire Earth vibrated for nine days after climate-triggered mega-tsunami interesting … I recall, reading about a seismic event on the interior part of the Greenland ice sheet many years ago during the beginning of the hockey stick warming of the earth. Period of climate change… It was subsequently theorized that it’s possible that a large majority of the interior ice sheet could ultimately fail in one single cataclysmic event sending much of the ballast of the ice into the sea the north Atlantic… Setting off a global tsunami/abrupt sea level rise of a couple of meters or more So these kinds of things are happening above and it’s really not too too dissimilar to that just happening on a much smaller scale

as observed by morning sat this smoke won't last long this morning

i dunno if it takes a whole helluva lot of category to cause major problems for the dumbest location of civility since pompeii tho

love it ... the guy's on point, too. op ed: sometimes one will start watching one of these and they'll get 5 min in when seamlessly ( or tried to ) it becomes why the 2nd coming and rapture is upon us. or something will just seem off until finally it dove tails into a liberal conspiracy to scare humanity about the end of the world. society really needs more of these sort of paraphrased articulations, those that simplify [perhaps] that which is too complex for the majority of background population. part of the problem with reticence and lack of acceptance ..etc of environment and the travails et al, is really just for loss of awareness before even going into any discussion. there's a gap there. too many are not connecting fast enough over what they are being told, because they don't know enough to begin with. we don't need to be psychologist to sense that it's easier to dispense of any message that does not resonate. and it gets worse when we think about the conditioning since the industrial revolution. there's a negative feedback from convenience [addling], that's compounding over successive generations. denying just about anything is privilege to do so, enabled by the relative safety of the industry realm. i read somewhere that the average i.q. is some 20 points lower in modernity compared to the a 200 years ago. having access to more information doesn't make one smarter. the information has to by virtue and willingness to the observer, actually get learned. the processing intelligence [think working a muscle ) is also weaker. why is all this so? it is because we are soaked with choices and recourse, such that there are far less ramifications severe enough. minds are not predicting consequence prior to actions or idiocy, when losses are not perceived as permanent. this stuff has been touched on by literary works since the advancement of the printing press. it's not really novel. but the point is ... cc to micro plastics and all of it, it doesn't appeal to people that have no receiver to get the message. these quick-for-low-attention-span exposes are useful to the lower attention span that comes with an "Idiocracy".

yeah no idea what/who owns the biggest pie slice... i just find the implication interesting. given ch4's greenhouse efficiency being an order of magnitude+ more so than the co2 ... this all becomes academic if all these human ch4 sources, team up with arctic perm frost release ...etc and et al, and simply outpace any modeling or predictions and the like. methane has a much short half life tho -

well for starters ... ha-ha or not, the gfs has been attacking that specific region just like that since april. not sure what in fractal's hell creation is causing this repetition in that model ( and in some senses ...i'm seeing in the others, just not as elaborately - ) but i think it has something to do with a primitive integration technique for the interaction of the lower troposphere with the planetary surface features. is it just an accident that that cold belt there almost exactly mimicks an atmospheric version of a Labradorian penis ?

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-methane-emissions-faster.html

i don't believe this gfs crap at all

this might help elucidate the above facets ... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml loop that. you can see this hemispheric scale neggy uvm potential has stalled over the americas now on 45 days and gaining. this is directly related to suppression throughout the basin ( this may also be evidenced by mid and u/a thermal conditioning though i haven't checked ) normally, these regions of 'green' and 'brown' are propagating around the globe, as each passes through, tendencies for increased(decreased) tc genesis are observed. green is where tc enthusiasts wish to be. not shit stain brown. and, not shit stain brown not propagating - it doesn't mean we can't get events to unfold ... but 'explosions' of activity are a lot less likely. playing into a loaded deck

yeah didn't explicitly mention that but the high parked over head is the actual idiosyncrasy i had in mind, which stops it from getting hot in the current model appeal it's alright for out doorsy stuff. by the way folks, lots of color, more so than just the typical 'sick maple,' dapples the distant groves around here. my big corner maple, healthy and stately, which i lovingly refer to as general sherman, is tinging orange a goodly 3 weeks ahead. i'm hypothesizing that the week of severe smoke we dimmed solar with for 10 days earlier last month might have triggered a bit of a green pigment pull-back if prematurely. these are healthy trees tinging around here, and i found that observation consistent along rt 2 and down 91 toward worcester over the weekend.

was ruminating along these lines, myself, this morning while looking at this thing on satellite. a tc set up over no excuse ohc and slackening shear and no ri ? bit of supposition here, but it seems intuitive that rapid intensification behavior would be harder to come by when/if a tc is born out of some sort of tainted placenta. so we get stunted growth to torture the metaphor a little more - i'm pretty sure i know why this season's pulled the drain on tropical forecasting egos. though no attempt to take credit. for one, i don't give a fuck but for the other reason, i didn't see the standing wave/failed kelvin and mjo propagation phenomenon that's stalled the basin in a shit show for 45 days, either. hindsight 20/20 and all that. why those wave phenomenon [apparently] are slow and not allowing the basin to cycle back into a favorable hemispheric scaled uvm layout - i still suspect- is related to hc expansion causing a negative frequency modulation.

historic heights with no 850s - at least per recent guidance. we'll see but it does seem there is this repetition to offset our warm patterns with idiosyncrasies. such that we never get out of control warmth here like other regions of the planet. i mean that has looked like one of those 'syngeristic heat bursts' setting up in the guidance, but nuances inside are stopping the heat from being realized. 565 dm hydrostatic hgts won't do it ... doesn't matter how high the non-hydrostatic hgts get. we'll still radiate at night and with low launch and tepid sun we're only recovering to 81 or 82 - not bad, but yet again ... leaving on the table.

but they just explained it though ... ? all those working in concert and at varying amounts, produced a synergistic result. i'm personally above the 90th percentile confident in that. the problem with synergy is that it doesn't by mathematics have a linear cause - in other words, if one looks for the singular cause it is impossible to ever find it, because it does not exist. i get the appeal to find a silver bullet cause, but given the objective reality over the earth being a result of a complex polynomial of indirectly/co-mingling forces, anyway, it's pretty damning that all those factors also for constructively interfering complexity, led to the earth's temperature leap. you know ... if anything, it's more probable that we were behind; what took place was more like an uncapping of erstwhile suppressive effects - not the other way around. fascinating proposition, but perhaps any such erstwhile offset was only stopping the synergy product, perhaps only lending to observations looking more constrained.

again ..another site where the record surpassed the penultimate by full degree unit(s). it's something when the previous several are mere decimals ... then a leap this large d(extreme) is going off all over the planet. probably the recent global temperature burst coming home to thermometers

hm impressive warm signaling continues ...extent of which tbd but 12z gfs over 594 dm ridge node parked over alb isn't very normal post 9/10s also have to wade thru model amplitude bias in the mid/ext ranges but the consistency in that direction has a lot of aggregated model runs at this point, too

okay just the 12z op euro and 18z gfs continuing trends ...that's approaching a historic signal out there.

garbage solution

substantial bd on the euro late next weekend - been more and less on that model for a few cycles. agreed, warm pattern but we suffer for our circumstantial region and bd's preferential to 'warmer patterns' only difference between apr and sep is they don't have as much d(t) bite in the latter. sill ... 2 m's collapse from mid and upper 80s to low 60s course ... 7 days away and all -

it's times like these that i wonder if the model's get exposed and they really do goose them toward climate. because the hemispheric scaled limitations that have ( and apparently continue to do so ...) been smothering activity don't appear to be alleviating in the latter mids ... yet they keep tryin and tryin to spin up mdr cumulus. the western gulf has legs if the fire hose shear were to slacken off.

00z was better at 500 mb for heat signaling... 12z is about 5 dm shallower with dome node and also quicker to conjure up bullshit ( what's new with the gfs's magical grinding mechanics with that... ) to erode it down. it may not matter yeah yeah if the 800 mb and llv synoptics winds are remain favorable - just speaking to the standard metric.