Typhoon Tip

the article contains a broader perspective but just wrt to the bold above: yup... i've been writing about this phenomenon - or trying to raise attention - as to the 'synergistic heat wave' one in the same. you get some kind of harmonic feedback from the environment that is also not very well understood and/or not necessarily built into the modeling/leading indicators ... boom! the event exceeds expectations. but i also believe it is not just feed back from the physical enviroment, but i also see atmospheric harmonics taking place too. like rogue waves in the ocean as analogy, where multi scaled waves come into a constructive interference - the degree of amplitude tends arrive large and there goes edmond fitzgerald.

https://phys.org/news/2024-10-helene-storms-dumped-whopping-trillion.html

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-anthropocene-1950s.html ( https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2313098121 )

yet at the same time ... we're working thru a 3rd consecutive week of ne-e flow fisting sw out of a -nao (western limb) something like 90 percent of the time. even when the nao block waned during that time range ... some pos front or worthless decaying tropical garbage sw-s keeps the e flow active. it's a local eastern n/a effect that's making it 'seem' more autumn like but it's (typical for this region) fake i guess what i'm bitching about is that 850 thermal mean through this period would have led to sfc summer appeal the whole way if we could buy a f'n coffee break of wsw wind and minimum sun

models would tend to sniff out the pattern base, and then the error and biases will be too much of whatever the base is ... ex, if the "real" pattern basis is in a -pna ... the extended ranges will occasionally balloon heights too much. if the pattern base is +pna ... we get these -3 standard deviation trough plumbing to indianapolis which aren't necessary ... yet very likely looking to winter enthusiasts ( of course ) having said that, yeeeah the last several years ( decadal and papered, too - ) have shown a propensity for transition season blocking - both ends. october being one of those months...etc. it's become almost reliable.. a persistence that sort of automatically lends confidence to it being annoyingly chilly too early in the year. yay! it's a new paradigm. yeah yeah yeah, probably another in the compendium of other cc hammer to head aspects that people keep gaslighting themselves into believing are just the tickle shoulder taps of variability. but it is what it is... and, it's part and parcel to why we've been observing snow or snow supporting synoptics along approximately half the octobers since 2000, when the prior climate generation(s) never did ( usually). only to then fade seamlessly into a wind enraged mid tropospheric shear shitty winter ass blow pattern. it's really just becoming unbearable ... much to the chagrin of all these wide-eyed enthusiastic seasonal forecasts for up our down in temp or snow or rain or whatever... all these winters have straight line torpedoed right through those convincing walls of reasons, to the same justification for setting up an escape plan to somewhere in the southern hemisphere.

mixed feelings ... if winter results in just about anything other that what the average of the last 8 years have been, i'll be interested ( though uneasy ) in seeing what that has to offer if winter results in the same as the average of these last 8 years, i dream of enough disposable financial liquidity to flee somewhere else and start a new life

This was pretty interesting to see .. while warming up for disk golf this morning up on the hill at Sterling/Meadowbrook the sky filled with geese outta no where. Not like just some big flock. The sky was in a cackling aerial mass some 200 or even 300 of em. Kinda reminded me of one of the dystopian scenes where the sky fills with birds before the event. That’s a massive orchard complex up there and I’m wondering if it’s like a migration feed depots, because they arrived in waves of 50+ and started circling in möbius loops like they were looking for something. …Either way you know it’s not because winter’s coming …

Oops

it's not a critique in any way ...more like reminder I suppose. But the increased deposition results are being observed everywhere. Obviously the above is was speaking to tropics so its just adding. Not directing this at you, Don - general read... but the atmospheric capacity to hold WV is increasing as a wholesale integral ( of course it has to be because cc is global condition). in short, warm air holds more wv; thus where ever it is raining ( snowing, sleeting or shitting ...) there's simply more water mass available to the machinery that is making it rain. Drier dynamic storms are becoming more rare. Clippers in the winter are snowing more for example - a classic dry dynamics system type. Mere thunderstorms are headlining for submerging a non-suspecting city. etc hurricanes a tougher parse outs because a rain bomb tc in 1976 can do a 40" job just as well. i think there's a fascinating study going on about why these ri's keep waiting to be within 300 miles of a coast before they happen. weird

meh they’ll back truck in with an industrial scale slurry pump and have it out of there in an afternoon.

MOS was humiliated around here 79 presently

here ... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00761-8 so long as we were bringing it up. i've been seeing papers emerge about this for 20 years or more, actually. but in this particular rendition the science states a top 5 wet winter ( meaning precip ... not necessarily ptypes ) may become a 1::4 year deal. prior climate generation/inference would suggest a return rate much, much longer. even 'rare' - it'll likely chap assess for being inconvenient to narratives, but cites the cause as a warming climate. it is what it is - in order to get from 1980 to 2050 ... 2100, it's entirely academic that we are seeing these precip bomb events ... increasing in frequency.. and so on

tomorrow may be a top 10er

long range rad looks like concentric eyewalls

140 mph

fwiw, 2:25 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 Location: 26.7°N 84.9°W Moving: NNE at 16 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 120 mph

meh to each is his or her own. i like nickles with occasional dimes that add up in a pattern that's legit cold enough for pack power. failing that, yeah ... i see the allure of a giant event. duh. i see that allure at any time. but i find 5 or 6 weeks of brown bare earth submerged under unpleasant temperatures, with barren weather chart cinemas, to be a storm of ennui that far exceeds any big event's capacity to inflict personal injury. lol

as an aside, this reminds me: singular precipitation events that far exceed 'storm event climatology' have been becoming more frequent world over. i think that's where you're going. yup - that 30" otherwise nill type setting you describe is being observed. it's empirically demonstrated that regions have been receiving as much as season's quota, or a significant fraction, all at once, ...before resuming extended dearths of anything significant. if that locale were to have a run in with two of them, inside the same season, history at both seasonal scales but in house floating down landscapes turned riverine on drone videos.

meh ...it's just more subjectivity - even given that definition. i mean imagine a zone that averages 60" of snow per season. now imagine a year whence that zone gets 0 snow, except for one 50" hoo-ha, a single event that has never happened in history - therefore by scalar acknowledgement, has to be the greatest storm ever, period. yet, that is a season that ends 10" below normal. now imagine off all years, -10 is also the most snowless with the next year being -9 on the shit list. that doesn't make the that season saved in a numerical sense. not even close. but ... look out! emotion saves the day and because the storm in fact triggered that greatest boner satisfaction ever, the winter is amazing! haha

the problem i have with a lot of this stuff is that the scalar verification over recent decade(s) have not matched leading indicators very well, anyway.

gfs (and now ggem, 12z) with the first synoptic air type of the season by the end of the first week of october ... 45 days ahead of schedule - a recurring motif of autumns since 2000.. some years more so than others. but its why for snow has been seen down to 40 n nearly half the octobers since 2000 - or whatever the incident recurrence has been but way above the 1950 to 2000 norm but, it's likely by some 20% that these guidances are too amped with cold weight and trough depths at this range, anyway, but this is officially the demarcation time for this modeling year, that the models start catfishing winter enthusiasts

it's kinda interesting how dry the rads are from pa on up considering the density and pervasiveness of cloud on sat

yeah, nothing to see here for any one humanly sane to the aesthetic appeals of nature... those idiots-

just for a coffee break .. some guidance is pushing a warm boundary to perhaps rt 2 up this way during the day, tomorrow. lga on the fous grid in the nam has t1 to 24c ...which is possibly as high as 26 in the 2meter. stalls the boundary just shy of logan with a 19c there, but that's probably farther north west o the city in the interior. anyway, sun's feeble so it may be more synoptic instability ...also, with the impetus escaping ne it may be mechanically challenged.

i noticed that 'muted hues' complexion down this way since about 2 weeks ago - which is early for these climate zones. it's not like they started turning colors as much as pail beiges of morbidity looking. there's some more coherent red and orange emerging now, but we've had that baby shit tinging on a lot of the big deciduous species since the first week of this month down here.