Typhoon Tip

interesting signal in the late mid and extended range. it's been on the guidance for a while ... but it's not exactly an exciting facet, either, so - but the indian summer climatology is here, about 3 weeks earlier than the more typical time of year whence seasonal regression typically occurs, late oct through mid novie. it's interesting - sort of - that here we are in the fervent popularity of climate concerns, yet we're moving transition events sooner? anyway, it may be more identifiable in the pattern structure, but today's cool shot cycles out, then there is bigger one early next week with only modest recovery in between. the one early next week may in fact lay down an early snow from upstate ny, up the st l and eastern ontario. as a consequence, we end up sub 540 dm hydrostats for 48 hours from the eastern gl, n ov, and ne regions. should wind ssettle off, we don't just frost at night but we rim ponds with ice and brick the top soil if these gfs renditions play out with that. the euro and ggem are on board, more than less... after that, particularly in the gfs ensemble system and the operational ( though the euro is not far off ) have an impressive l/w rollout and we balm big time. by convention, the indian summer typically happens after the first seasonal suggestion ... i'm just making conjecture here that not all indian summers are very identifiable - they come nuanced, with some subtly suggestive if not missed altogether, where other autumns have some more coherent. this transition over the next week between two froster air masses, followed by some 4 or 5 days worth of 564+ dm hydrostat with dry wsw deep layer continental flow seems like a nuanced version of the indian summer. the most illustrated i can ever recall was just recently in 2020, when an october 30 snow was followed by 70 to 80 f between nov 5 and 10th

unless this is just some weird wobble this isn't going to be much of a surge issue for tampa bay. rad clearly is moving a busted open ravioli of an eye square on sarasota the weakening nearing land was well modeled but the track seems to be a problem - a little

No, in case they they were thinking sig snow event … but 2ndly, the tone was commiseration in the spirit of ‘what could go wrong’. Sarcasm

yeha. i dunno if it's that much but it's an oscillatory pattern at most to me. i get the humor whether y'all up there in nne can cap a few of those, what new england calls mountains, higher hills that happen to have rocky outcroppings ..., with white. perhaps. but it's all quick rollout air masses replaced with dwarf indian summer afternoons before the next one - one that was also a big testacle once at day 6 round and round we go

i'm hoping for it to just unexpectedly come on board coughing up 74 mph gusts of anitclimax .. just for the schadenfreude of watching all the "blow" back - the real storm

at this range ... your d5 amplitude rob back amount is about 10 .. 15%, so you have to cut your current d-drip with at least that much ... lowering the dose potency heh

the correlation with high latitude is more arctic oscillation in general. don't mean to lecture, just adding this ... higher solar activity favors the +annular mode; subsequently, because the ao shares ( overlaps) its domain geography with the wpo-epo-nao ( to varying degrees.. ) therefore a positive correlation with all these indices. there is a partial disconnect, so yeah ... not 1::1 but 60 .. 70% that fact that heightened summer and autumn solar activity correlates to a +nao is really just a quadrature of that bigger picture above, which ... frankly is a bit more important. particularly because in determining long lead pattern tendencies, the nao is not the primary loading pattern for either cold or storm frequency across n/a. the idea of that being the case became fallacy when the index was popularized in the 1990s and media went crazy with it... but no. cold and and/or increased storm amplitude come from the aa vs ab phase of the pacific's overall governing circulation type. aa is +wpo/+epo ( pna oscillations lag negative ) ab is -wpo/-epo ( pna oscillations lag positive ) hint, when the pna surges positive, trough digs in the east and there is a down stream ridge response over the nao = -nao. it is in total, a non-linear wave production as part of the larger dispersion signal arriving from the pacific - most don't get that. not saying that is you or anyone per se ... but i hate it when reading some rock star's extended range outlook forecasts a joyous storm based a nao index outlook that could go negative whether there is storm or not.. the winning forecast is always the one that can foresee ( correctly ...) the state of the aa vs ab pacific winter, and in either case, whether the ballast of that signal is biased west or east. preferably for winter enthusiasts in the east, eastern limb ab pacific mode is what correlates very highly with winter complexion across the continent.

https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy04Mi40MDIsMjcuNzA1XSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjcsImZpbHRlciI6IldTUi04OEQiLCJsYXllciI6InNyX2JyZWYiLCJzdGF0aW9uIjoiS1RCVyJ9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOnRydWUsImJhc2UiOiJzdGFuZGFyZCIsImFydGNjIjpmYWxzZSwiY291bnR5IjpmYWxzZSwiY3dhIjpmYWxzZSwicmZjIjpmYWxzZSwic3RhdGUiOmZhbHNlLCJtZW51Ijp0cnVlLCJzaG9ydEZ1c2VkT25seSI6dHJ1ZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuMjgsImxvY2FsIjowLjYsImxvY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19

that's all vs mere tc conditions spanning that range - that's huge

dp was 46 here as the sun hit the horizon last evening. the air had that hemorrhage heat to space and probable frost feel ( and smell to it - ) at that time, but with that relatively elevated dp ... mm stopped at 41. i'm playing the mind game i do every october, where i must get to the 15th before turning on the heat. yesterday's high capped lower than 70, and after the previous night was 41, the house wasn't really warming very much. i'm probably siting in 61 F and debating... i think with tonight and tomorrow and tomorrow night i'll probably be forced. it's all mini splits now - it would be the first attempt at heating since mid summer installation.

fwiw - this source provided by the climate diagnostic center is good for a quick n dirty ( coarse ) correlation between all indices, broken out by month https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/ ...it's always been available, just sayn' but just classical experience knows that the wpo is correlated ( positively ) with the epo. the matrix above suggests it is between +.1 and +.2 cc, which in reality ...the correlation is likely greater than that range. the disclaimer also notes that these are all linear - therein is a problem in blanket usage. for the sake discussion, because the progression of all events in the atmosphere being what they are, a wpo index will necessarily ( geophysically ) require some amount of lag to manifest downstream in the epo domain. linearity does not necessarily represent accelerations; the correlations are thus happenstance and don't consider time dependence. so, when applying a lag, the correlation likely stronger is all i'm sayn during times of rapid hemispherical modality, i've found that diving wpo tends to manifest in the epo about 3 days later ( approx) ... ranging to 5 to 7 days during low amplitude ( or even no registry at this far end ). variances that are quite academic anyway, considering no indexes are 1::1...etc. uuusually though, a robust wpo index mode/modality will eventually represent, due to some amount of forcing, downstream in the epo domain - resident or longevity of mode, notwithstanding. those privy to these large scale teleconnector relationships typically pay attention east of the ural/alps across asia, where super synoptic mode changes --> wave dispersal downstream of the continent effects the wpo --> epo ... and so on, the source 'zygote' in pattern modulation across n/a perhaps week to 10 days later.

the pressure just stoned to 905 mb ... the posted wind being 165 mph may in fact be in the process of increasing because of response lag. and i'm not sure we've seen the lowest pressure yet -

it may actually be moving too slow to sustain that ceiling intensity. although it is nearing the loop current ohc source... but for the time being, it almost looks stalled on the last 3 hours ( or very slow) worth of sat cinema. could be some overturning - speculation

yeah this isn't nearly as impressive this morning ... we'll see where the day goes

well... we can look forward to nominally below normal temperatures followed by nominally above normal temperatures, with nominal to no rain through the 23rd or so. hm hm?

40 to 60 here in 3 hours is impressive enough

so 897, eh

wilma's winds maxed 185 mph sustained at one point, too - as did gilbert. ..not to far from milton gilbert had a truly immense circulation envelopment, though. wouldn't be shocked if gilbert owns the ise record by an embarrassing margin. but that's a trinket metric my theory on wilma is that she was probably able to attain such a dramatic pressure fall ( almost 97 mb in 24 hours. might be a ri record ) because she developed and stalled amidst a cag. storms that develop in already neggie base pressure anomalies can end up deeper relatively so. the feb blizzard up here along the sne coast in '78 was never below 982 ... but the surrounding ambience was very elevated at detonation/bombogen phases so it had an upward biased descension curve.

once read an accounting of the labor day event where as the eye traversed the keys ... toilet water began gashing out of toilets, presumably do to sudden drop entering the pressure well/change. it was in the old weather almanac/book published in 1974 i think it was. as the eye passed off the water stopped rising out of the toilets, and this unusual behavior was attributed to the sudden pressure fall in the interior. amazing

180 mph 905 mb

looks on sat like a turn to the ene has already taken place this afternoon. and .. it looks even more intense if that is even possible. but i guess once a tc gets over a buck 50 its playin with shrapnel either way.

theoretic stuff but .. ... if we erc here sooner or later, then it's a larger system that still has to pass over the nw arc of the loop current, as it ascends latitude - consensus at 12z still looks to be tb but we'll see on that. just wondering what a post erc, larger system then does when it hits that ohc reservoir

jesus christ

prayers ...seriously. i mean, i can imagine that conversation last night might have been similar. pending some kind of modeling changes ( and of course there's no crystal ball) but for the time being, this omens as one of those 'special' kind of hells what went on the carolina high country notwithstanding

man that could be a perfect scenario to achieve absolute destruction if that plays out ...looks like - at this time - the consensus puts the right eye wall over the southern inlet to tampa's bay, with the low pressure's core passing over the northern shore. that would drive a near physically maximized storm surge mass, drawn up by regionally historically deep barometric pressure, into a narrowing geographic scenario. wtf as far as the wind, the best would be if an ewr could occur - but that's also no guarantee. typically aft of an ewr, the system spreads it's ise over a larger envelopment, lowering some of the inward pg stress that tends to ease off on the wind throttle. but the pressure could still remain very deep, and with all that wind momentum working sea as it encroaches upon that bay area place head between knees, kiss ass goodbye lucky there's a couple of days - least they got that goin for em