Typhoon Tip

Right. heh And it seems every morning the models are even more aggressively anomalous with creating a butt plugged hemisphere the likes of which would make February's envious ... That said ( "sarcasted" ), I do think there's some possibility that A, the models are over doing it, and B, the lower troposphere may not really really be very well coupled/integrating vertically into those trough meanders - a typical aspect of the sun's enormous normalizing power. It bakes lower Canada almost as much now so it's not like the mechanics are translating abusive fronts anymore. The 2-meter temperatures are still 80 or so in some of these products ... etc.

If it's a fan blade impacting polystyrene ... just think of all the delicious nano-particulates of plastic and/or forever chemicals you'll be inhaling. mm mm yummy. I was reading a paper at Phys.org about the crashing birthing rates among industrial guided societies of the world ( which is pretty much 99% of the global population at this point) as being alarming. A pie slice of the cause is pretty easily identifiable as cultural feedback. Less women being male-reliant are opting out of child birth this ... Cost unbalanced by inflation that. Sense of doom from the perils of pollution and climate change saturating media is causing younger generations to be less inclined... There's a lot in the pie slice. But one aspect that this article covers is environmental toxicity. Study links lowering male sperm counts/potency as possibly related to a recent discovery that micro-plastics have penetrated the reproductive barrier, and now can be found in testicles. You have micro plastics in your balls, men. And it appears based on modeling that there is a correlation (time dependent) between the micro plastic invasion into the background, vs the onset of the sperm potency reductions that began some 20 years ago... and is getting worse. Population controls may be imposed whether we choose to or not, huh -

it probably wouldn't be as bad as that sort of impressions though. This time of year, the lower troposphere ambience is pretty normalized in all directions ... weak baroclinicity and lacking much gradient below ~ 700 mb, probably lends to much of that just being mid and upper level. Prevents 'big heat' but ... noticing the 2-meter are still 80 or better even when that trough at 500 mb is landing into a negative L/W axis ... To bad there's no early TC off the SE coast, huh

yeah. it's hard to get interested or very enthused though when repeatedly the cinemas keep ending up looking like this out there

Just anecdotally/observation on my part but agreed ... there does seem to be less occurrences of ridging over the eastern mid latitude continent during summers. In fact, I've noticed more success in doing that in May's ... yup. It's hard to say if this just some fractal at larger scales - repeating until it doesn't and it may take 10 years or whatever. I have a sneaking suspicion though that coupling the geophysical circumstances of canonical western heights, with greater heat absorption spectrum associated with greenhouse gassing, might be triggering the western heights as the summer dominating mode. In other words, coupling/super-imposing those overwhelms... Man... should a Sonoran heat release take place, however rarefying that may be ..., it would be interesting if one of these synergistic heat wave events would take place over the eastern continental mid latitudes - that might get it done. And we'd put PHL-PWM into the VIP class with some of these other locations around the globe filling E.R.s and lighting up social media with conspiracy theories. the latter's been funny actually.

Yeah it's been rough on summer enthusiasts with these models and the longer ranges. Not really ever yet have we gotten a sense there's real heat lurking out there. And what I've noticed is that it's been different on every run - as though no matter how it gets done, 'must not allow heat'. LOL. I mean it's not like there's a coherent recognizable pattern type that's re-emerging every run. The models are spraying out different reasons. Here's the 12z GFS's latest summer cancellation.... Unfortunately, the +PNA/-NAO in the telecon is also attempting to accelerate to October 15, too. Hell, maybe this summer's doomed before it gets going.

This should be winding down soon up here along Rt poopy. It's already either day glow-lamp ceilings if not the occasional solar beam flashing across windows SW of the Pike, but otherwise, the presentation is weakening overall on sat and rad. Long days of summer can have two quite distinctively different sensible appeals packed into the same daylight period sometimes.

just nipping the possibility of a spontaneously emerging, misconception phenomenon ( LOL ) in the bud here. It isn't a Landphoon. 'Phoons as a phenomenon are convectively induced vorticity. This thing was entirely synoptically driven with S/W mechanics. Albeit rather nucleated/small comparing phenotype ...but it was still caused by different physics.

Ha... lol, but it seems like "great - winter's fucked no matter what" being most apropos at this point.

the air smells and feels like that late October vibe. You know how cold air rain types have that aroma? Someone's also using their fireplace this morning too. 51 R ooph. It really underscores just how bad that July 4th 2020 was really criminal

I thought it was kind of both ... It wasn't seen very well until about 48 to 30 hours ago depending on which guidance used, but once it was ... they were all on board that it was getting wet. The NAM ( or any other guidance - ) may have bumped the QPF max around around the region, but in principle the meso-beta scaling aspect of this "little critter that bites" ... that may have been why the shorter lead to be "seen". It is an interesting system - it's entirely impacting only in target kind of frustration. Here are the Euro 48 hours ago and NAM from 30 hours ago, respectively, left to right. ...thanks to TT's "Prev. Run" option. Once these guidance did latch on the event was pretty stolidly situating just about right where it is occurring - albeit ...the model may be low on totals. I'm not sure in the case of the NAM we can really lampoon it's position handling on one hiccup run when we know what that tool's capabilities are.

That looks like the models are tapping into winter mechanics for that. we'll see

Strange ... the GLAAM outlook from the CF model cluster would indeed suggest mid latitude expansion of subtropical ridging ... (really an polaward HC boundary migration) while the numerical teleconnectors (based off the global numerical ensemble systems, all 3, are going bonkers with this +PNA) - that attempts to deny the +AAM. +AAM modulates away from meridian flow transports in lieu of longitudinal, yet this... And it's more than this just transiently passing through this construct around that time interval ... the ensemble means set this up D8 and run it out to the annular finish at D15 still harboring a hint of the OV nadir there. Bit of a diametric indication going on.

especially from ~ Dec 1 to March 1

Doesn't seem like we're getting out the later evening without an inch drink ...give or take.

Fwiw - the warm boundary punch back across this end of Rt 2 around 1/2 hr ago. We were 61 at 2pm and about 63 at 3:30 when I hit the gym. I walked out of the gym 20 minutes ago and it was noticeably changed. It's now 67 but 70 F is just S and we presently rising. The wind switched S and the cloud deck is higher with warm type nimbus. It was slate gray before

Farmers in the Midwest love late snow. It’s called “ farmers Gold”. Snow on the ground may not do much to impede anything. In fact if anything, it’s only excreting nitrogen into the soil

right ...keep a storage for this

Maybe relative to climo ? ...I mean I don't know. Just askin' I can tell you that 113, certainly if repeating, is unusual for May even for them.

I think it's perfect with the breeze. It's value-add. It reminds me of a perfectly tempered swimming pool in the air.

Could be a wake up call to get off the processed foods and eat more wholesome organic veggies and pure low saturated fat meat sources, combined with a lifestyle coach for work outs and sleeping, huh. heh Which by the way, RIP Morgan Spurlock. ...speaking of the Industrial Food Complex ... he was the guy that wrote, directed, and starred in "Super Size Me," a info-drama where he dedicated 30 straight days of eating nothing by McDonald's. There was also a sidecar requirement that he had to finish every meal. Including when asked if he wanted to be supersized, he had to say yes... etc. Processed food is significantly correlated with cancer ..etc.

82/48

I'm not sure the "marine heat wave" phenomenon works for the Great Lakes the same way. Great Lakes thermal storage has a different response to physical stressing. They may be considered the same but my personal ( perhaps semantic, fine - ) take on that is that because the causal geophysical roots cannot really compare, they shouldn't be dubbed the same way ( if that is the case...). Just sayn lol The marine aspects out amid the total expanse of the 'oceanic hemisphere' are a synergy resulting from geophysical inputs that cannot ever apply to the Great Lakes. For one thing... time and mass -related different responses to stress factors makes the comparison less so. For example, wind stressing on the Lakes can literally slosh the surface and thermocline depths, complete obliterating the previous state in a single event. As a result of these so-called "over turning" occurrences, it's not uncommon for beaches along Lake Michigan's eastern shores to plummet from 75+F, all the way to the mid 50s, even in mid summer ... due to strong short duration wind events... Derechos, be they late summer canonical first fronts ...etc. The stuff we're discuss out among the oceans has to do with OHE loading and mass quantities that exceed the single capacity of a local timescale wind stressing events. They are a combination of a reducing evaporation rate in the total integral of the oceanic-atmopheric coupling, which lower evaporation is a warming influence, combined with changes in the circulation footprint - which this latter is redistributing the wind stressing pattern as part of CC. Those warm pools thus can and will maintain a 'heredity' of that truer longer term more dominating aspect.

Sneaky diurnal range contender today... Refreshing 53 for a low and it's 80 after an explosive morning temperature response to this ultra purified air really allowing max insolation. To rise 27 F before 10 am is impressive. Probably we'll hit the bounce temperatures sooner than normal ... but, there's a dry boundary coming down this afternoon backing the the light wind from W to more NW, which is some d-slope compression too. As an aside, this is the lowest smoke contaminated atmosphere at continental scales that I personally recall since 2020