Typhoon Tip

Doesn't Kevin live close to that Vernon ... Rockville area of CT ... where it is presently 62/57 priceless -

Ha...You gotta understand ... I grew up in the 1980s and 1990s modeling arrogance - which means ...I was left heartbroken more than not. That steady abuse of being gaslit by model solutions convincing us of a reality that would only prove fantasy, turned me into an neg nazi when it comes to situations where in one hand, it's what I want, and in the other, it's the looming reality that god is an asshole. There's not a lot of evidence defending the latter, so ...we pick the model solution that best aligns with that principle and we'll always score remarkably well. LOL

OH I'm on fence. I'm just trying to objectively lay out the differences. I did look at the 06z GFS and it trended N - that could be an early capitulation. we'll see. The NAM fwiw was Ner than it's previous 00z run...

I have seen maybe 3 times spanning decades worth of years ...whence the warm solutions won out over BD air mass lay-ins, and they were all in the last 10 years. I don't recall specific dates, but there was one where all the models even the day before, had moderately well defined BD boundary replete with the whole 2-meter large T correction punching SW clear to NYC by mid day. 3pm rolls around it was still 88 in Nashua NH. I was looking at the satellite, and there was no impression that boundary even existed anyway but there was a drape mid way up the Maine shore. I think with models being much better, I have noticed that the improvement kind of makes them over-sensitive too? - you know, 20 years ago, the models were never aggressive enough with these things. Something like that. I'm wondering if this one of those situations with the GFS just ending up too aggressive. See ...even a crushingly mundane weather synopsis, there's something to be excruciating about hahaha

Euro for 18z Saturday GFS ... We all know that the GFS is climatologically more sound than the Euro, particularly when considering the 24 to 36 hours prior to this 18z layout above. Today's slab of Canadian polar air getting nice and jammed into the region does not typically displace by merely weak warm front momentum/kinematics - in acknowledgement of both theory and practic, the Euro is out to lunch. on the flip side ... The Euro is seldom wrong this close. It's an interesting little test here. ..

GFS is wildly more pessimistic than the Euro for Saturday, mid day. Pick 'em I guess

well, okay - we saw that, but I wasn't sure if it was a sensor malfunction or a ledger thing.

This Euro run is more than SoP with warm/DPs on Saturday, just sayn' This is a diffused if not coherent warm frontal penetration to Brian latitudes of CNE.

may actually get the lows for the day just before midnight tonight for eastern zones

Looks like we're bootlegged on high T's for today. Lot of midnight caress goin' on

At this site/source their removing those discrepancies fwiw - https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KBOS&hours=72

No point looking that up it’s true… As one that hobbies heat waves I can tell you that’s true for this region… But it doesn’t appear to be causally linked, either - not that anyone’s suggesting so; just thought I’d add that. Statistically we don’t breech 100 often enough. That is the proxy in why less likely to do that twice in a single year. Based on the prior generations of climate, that is; it’s an important distinction to make. I don’t know in this present era if that is still as lesser likely. If one’s a gambler putting money down on having it occur more than once in a season, getting the first in the books in June is probably better odds than having the first happen in early August… obviously

It's 2-meters keep nicking off degrees every run though - it may be that a collapsed model solution is nearing. It's an odd looking surface synopsis for 18z in these Euro runs, too. That much damming just looming from the NE, yet no BD coming down, is atypical climo to say the least. I don't trust it, but it would be interesting to see that. GFS-like solutions are climate friendlier. On the flip side, the Euro is typically not that grossly inaccurate at < 4.5 days, whereas the GFS has made more gaffs in that range. hard to say or sell either way

Plus, the sensor's offline at the moment so ... not likely unrelated

Jun 25, 1:55 pm 84 70 62 88 ENE 14 10.00 SCT060 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:54 pm 95 68 42 100 ENE 14 10.00 FEW037 BKN065 1015.10 29.96 29.98 95 78 Jun 25, 1:50 pm 93 68 44 98 ENE 14 10.00 SCT050 BKN070 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:45 pm 93 68 44 98 E 14 10.00 SCT050 BKN070 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:43 pm 93 68 44 98 E 15G21 10.00 SCT050 BKN070 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:40 pm 86 68 55 89 E 10 10.00 BKN050 BKN070 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:35 pm 84 68 58 87 E 10 10.00 BKN050 BKN070 29.95 29.97 Jun 25, 1:30 pm 82 68 62 85 E 10 10.00 BKN050 BKN070 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:25 pm 79 66 65 ESE 9 10.00 BKN050 BKN070 29.96 29.98

yeah ha just typed a similar explanation

I bet that's low level folding There's NW wind moving into Boston and it's "tipping" the air mass over the really shallow E component and it may be mixing irregularly back down

huh... Logan can't be 95 with that wind wtf

I'm wondering if that's not the end tho. May be, but there's a lot of wind flags pointing SE ... I could see them flipping off and on over the afternoon ... heh, like 90 - 80 - 90 -80

93/71

just think ... exactly 6 mo from right now that'll be 50.7

Seems to be alone ... Overall, it's trying to be less cool. It's not as cool with the backside frontal environment tomorrow. Ex, 70s vs 60s. But also, Saturday the Euro it attempts to roll-back the front as a warm intrusion back to about Rt 2 actually... Meanwhile the GFS and NAM are suppressed, in cold murky back-packing Labradorian sludge air to S of HFD

Examples?

It's romantic to think of big heat ending with an exit big bang ... but, she seldom shows up. The reason for that is because as is typically the case, the front that demarcates the surface end of the heat wave, parallels the flow - typically still having heat wave CIN layer cap. This mollifies instability while also doesn't provide triggers. The result is that it just sort of goes away. It's progress in displacing the heat is in lockstep with the speed of the height decay aloft. As the ridge recedes, the front is repositioning accordingly. You can see that happening here. WSW-ENE oriented front side-winding slowly south, as the ridge is deflating - booorinnng We just find our selves in a different world tomorrow with severe drizzle to show for the giant change.

It was 90 by 9 at Logan fwiw-