Typhoon Tip

Everything just gets stretched in the X-coordinate these days. Including ridges. These features show up out along the temporal horizon of the various guidance, than slowly almost unseen along the way ... we end up with fast flow and things not capable of establishing 'curved forms' as much as they originally looked -or are being diminished in that capacity to some degree. It's why we had a cold or cold enough winter with low snow to show for it, really. That coordinate/correction aspect is a built in negative interference for both storm longevity and integrity = less I've noticed that recent guidance ( like over the last day's worth ) have started backing off on the longevity of the -NAO heading toward the Ides of the month. Can't say we didn't suspect that as a possibility - I wrote about the rug pulling performance problems with that index aplenty. But, despite the lowering resistance, heights are having trouble rising over eastern mid latitude continent, despite also being in a -PNA foot. It's because of this pulling/stretching shit ...

Day and half until bumpin' the clocks ahead. I had hoped ( ...unrealistically so ) that a warm-up might coincide with the longer days, but that mid week just gets colder every time I look at guidance. longer evenings in cold air ... enjoy.

This may be a Q for the banter thread but what is the status with the NOAA after this latest wave of making America great again...? Are we soon destined to observe a coherent degraded product quality, more delays ... model outage frequencies...etc that comes with shortening both arms and intellect? Is that our "much better and more improved state of reality"

Not very remarkable up to this point, here. It's windy ... nothing out of the ordinary. The winds have been less actually than some blowers over the winter. We still have diurnal mixing over the next several hours so there could be some better momentum transports.

yup, back to reality tomorrow.

looks like a zygote low pressure forming on the boundary right over you

NAM has d(t) of 14C between 980 and 800 mb over logan at 18z, so about 7C per 90mb. That's a bit steeper than standard adiabat so the mixing should be efficient. It's only put 31kts sustained at mid BL tho, so... good lapse rate at least

Euro is oscillating between blase AN air masses that end with d-drip fake wind events back to a day and half of BN ... then repeating.

yeah yeah, we know -

Man that is an ugly sfc evolution next week from the 12z op GFS. Bring back the 00z please ...

it may be that there are two disparate things going on ... Those models you mention may be over selling the mixing. But the March sun and bigger gusts aspect is real physics. It's just not clear if these models are picking up on that, or if they are just wild for some other reason. The sun's aspect may not account for the amount of overturning in the models, in other words.

Not trying to sell Kevin's roof ending up on Boston Common, but ... keep in mind, the March sun is very powerful compared to even Feb, and getting stronger by non-negligible %'s per day as we approach the Equinox. The boundary layer will bump ... Whether this is 'why' BUFKIT may appear so well-mixed or not, there is an environmental argument that convective overturning and BL expansion being proficient - just because it may be an annoyingly cold day, doesn't mean these mechanics are not in play. This is just an added aspect to concern. It's not the same CAA as it is on Jan 6 when the sun is shining from a cool azimuth.

UKMET looks a little better for warmth. Aligns that 2.5 day static look next week with the front stalled along the St Law., giving more wiggle room.

mm looks like 39mph gusts with one or two lucky 50 type stuff

Hard to feel very confident about a warm interlude in the mid range out there when the supposed better performing guidance types keep sending bulbs of +PP eastward N of a boundary that only has about 75 miles of wiggle run stretching between BUF-BOS. Climo in March? that ends up south. we'll see Looks like a classic set up for 70s that actually go onto verifying as 45ers while it's 70 in S of Newark NJ

https://phys.org/news/2025-03-global-sea-ice-february-world.html

nice ribbon echo in there

Today's melt appears more effective than any yet for the snow pack around here. It's visibly retreating by the hour. We're up to 55 and the DP's 47 let's do this

based on ?

Equinox is on the 20th this year so 2 weeks.1 ... I don't know why I sense this but it feels like the extremely low probability decent April's en route

Clocks ahead in 4 days. At least the models will be too late in the day to matter anymore. Heh, might be the best thing for the lot of us ...

I bet also these cold shots over the next week end up busting too cold - by how much, notwithstanding. We've shut off the local hemisphere's loading mechanism for cold with the +EPO, and with the solar min behind us, along with the rising solar transition over continent, this has typical machine lagging written all over it. I bet on Friday it's more like mid 40s at 3pm. METs actually 41 to 42 at HFD, FIT and ASH so ... probably being too finicky but for some reason I have this crushing nerdiness about temp recoveries in the season of spring.

it'll arrive later ... you'll get plenty of thaw time tonight and probably tomorrow when the dry slot warm sliver sends everyone to 63 ahead of the lagging CAA

actually ...much to the chagrin of my own cynicism, we're up to 50 here with a bit of an observable actual S breeze. It's in the mid 50s in ct/ri and probably thus heading here later this afternoon. We just don't have any sun. Wasting a nape potential with the proficiency of wasting cold this last winter. ha

Totally! but ... I don't believe it. It's really 58F