Typhoon Tip

Stabilize? it's going to fall

Something about the zeitgeist of modernism is doing a psycho-babble job on current breeding aged humanity and that is causing birthing rates to come down, anyway, but the following? It is, at minimum, an indirect implication of purely anthropomorphic pollution over the last 100 years, and is disturbing: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38745431/ Between the two of those, there's likely to be a population sink before the end of this century as time catches up with present heart beats while replacement long fell below 1::1. The implications of which is probably modeled via super computer -reliant mathematical interpolations, or some other sci fi shit ... After all, starting with 8 billion souls, with non-equally distributed testicular numbing based on regional dispersion across the planet, it's not as straight forward. Still, it's easy, given that publication, to imagine a dystopian frame-up where that is part of the cocktail of consequences lending to the Fermian "exit strategy" (tongue in cheek ) It doesn't seem like it takes a complex study to just go ahead and assume at minimum, a population correction has to be the arithmetic fate if fucking isn't producing babies. No need to really write that novel - the stories being written in every breath we takes and food we eat or drink, dumping exotic human innovation into reproductive physiology. That's the "ball" game

That’s more of a fun run from the 18z GFS. thunder chances but remaining warm over the weekend … I don’t mind that. It won’t be raining all the time and there will be cumulonimbus crispies to ogle completely different world compared to what the GFS was thinking three days ago when it had that excessively deep trough…

Whereas we never had dewpoint exceed 62 or 63 around here maybe 64. As it were we had highs of 89 or 90 between Fitchburg, Nashua, up to Manchester and New Hampshire.

Yeah, thanks. Phys.org is a great site to get the quick and dirty. They do paraphrasing and they always cite the source - they are clean. great minds

Anvil wall to my west. Cloudy and hot now... always an interesting very pithy summer vibe when that sets up. 87 Slow moving pulse severes up Rt 2. doubt they get here - have seen this before and they seldom do. Residual showers from dead vils later in the evening with the only thunder being the loud, rapid cricket song. It's also interesting to back up a thunderstorm day anywhere in New England with a heat. This is something I've noted as new to our climate over the last 5 years. I'd always noticed that any convection around here was always immediately rewarded the next day by the complimentary air mass change. In fact it was always so dependable I don't recall it ever not taking place. But this is more than a handful of times now I've seen this taking place over the last several summers now. And it's just May 21. 90 here. Thunder in the area. Even hotter tomorrow. What is this, Enid Oklahoma

Ho man... Des Moines could be in deep shit

Okay, installation of 2nd floor complete. Schweatty balls doing the task. wow is it hot up there. 84 is the magic temp for this property. If it's 83 outside ... it's borderline up there by 11pm. But 84 ... boom, 1001 degree F I could feel the heat by mid stair well. 90 at several home sites within a mile. Can't wait. In 8 days I getting my estimate for minny splits.

well,.. regardless of what is ultimately the high temperature, it's a hot day around this region of N central Mass. Maybe some of that is acclimation but 89/64 yields a HI of 90.x ... so tfwiw FIT and ASH are both 89.6 at Mesowest.utah.edu ... we'll have to see what's up with rounding on that.

88 .. me thinks 90 is in reach.

cool. thx!

Okay that's Plymouth edu where are you getting your machine numerics ? I've been using Weather.gov but here we are almost mid afternoon and the 12z MAV/MEX are still populating the output with 00 or 06 z when you send in your site requests.

I don't hate the look... Euro seems a bit excessively deep with the synoptic low... but the synoptics are flaccid and the error can higher due to noisiness blah blah

First legit open air warm day crispies I’ve seen this year n-w. Just towers for now. Appear to be favoring the ridge lines

82 here ... see, you'll probably end up around there by mid afternoon. Like what happened here, we had a critical threshold moment where the diurnal inversion needed to be cooked away and then we surged from 71 to 82 over the last 1 hr or so. You're delayed by some 2 hours because of that weird strata's ability to defy the sun's direct physical absorption. haha When we get those morning weird layers they do steal away from the day.

Even KBDL is jumped to 73 now that the strata has poofed away. So the typically heat-challenged Tolland area of interior N CT may even see 80 but fall just short of everywhere else ...

We don't have an Antarctic ice -related thread going, but I thought this was interesting re the Thwaites status https://phys.org/news/2024-05-satellite-radar-uncover-vigorous-antarctica.html

oh I see. There was an inversion that we needed to cook off. Temps just surged in the last hour where ever there's sun. We looked like we'd be a bit under guidance ( machine ) as of 10 am. It was just 71 .. 72 in the region at that time. But it's 78 .. 80 really quickly just in the last hour. So the machine numbers may in fact be too cool ? here's a stretch, maybe they'll be right. no way

You know ... this time of year is tricky to draft up what the model-based sensible weather would be. For one, the 00z run from 36 hours ago ( GFS ) had a SSE cool bite water inflow into a rain wall moving into western New England by 18z on Sunday. Looks noting like that now... Problem in part is that the flow character overall has seasonally weakened. The weakness allows smaller perturbation and changes from run to run, to dictate rather large sensible weather appeal difference. The MEX numbers look way warmer than the model's synoptic cinema would imply is really possible after Thursday. Yet BDL-FIT-ASH are all above 76 with 80s on Sunday. But then it occurred to me... ha, maybe the problem is my own. My brain is still in winter mode and hasn't gotten the memo entirely LOL. Can't assume strataform constructs so much anymore. Overall, this could be just a dewy-er stretch with more hit or miss showery/thunder Maybe just some early CB entertainment followed by a warm humid afternoon on Sunday. As for MD itself, the GFS has actually been all over the map with where to place QPF blobs and low pressure. Time to start thinking more summer. The seasonal torpid gradients and nebular characteristic makes the mid range darty.

Today looks like a modest warm bust so far - interestingly. 64 at BDL with strata murk packing. It's about 20 minutes from melting to mostly sunny so they'll burst rebound, but even here where it's been 90+% insolation since sun up, the temps are acting weighted. It's not clear why with the 925 to 850 potential, either. interesting. 71 ... 10 after 10 is under MOS/machine so we'll see.

This looks suspiciously too deep and nucleated to me considering the overall evolution of the total synoptic circumstances surrounding - which is more flaccid. But aloft the Euro is trying to phase a convective feed-back vort max with a wholesale N/stream incursion through the eastern Lakes. ah ....dubious. I think slightly weaker low moving up the St L. Seaway, with ( perhaps even ...) a convection day amid a warm sector. Since that would be what we want, it won't happen, and this anomaly below will just go ahead and take place. ha

heh... it seems like the models are 'de-amplifying' the entire synopsis in that time span, enough to lower the inundating cool and wet illustration to just inconvenience - I'm just comparing the blended mean from all guidance from previous runs/yesterday. Looks like as you say, 'showery' but that's offering some dry periods and probably at this time of year, intervals of sun getting through. What we obviously don't want ( and probably don't need even - ) is what the GFS was doing 30 hours ago: it had a huge polar high dome working into N Ontario, with a slow moving weakness at 500 mb carving out just enough nadir from Ohio to NS. That troughy ball sack was then getting squeezed by the high pressure exerting from the north, afflicting 2 straight days of painful easterly llv anomalies along with intermittent steady rain bursts... Ooh, sign us up. jesus - To me the blend now looks - at this time and subject to change .. of course - more like 4 hour periods where it's dicey with disturbances but there is 6 hours between them where it's probably partial sky and drier. As we know, it's not uncommon for the models to both be biased to amplitude when in the mid and extended, and to be too amped at this time of year. Both those error considerations may continue to help us. Of course ... sometimes this doesn't help at all - like July 4th weekend 2020.

73 .. I guess now that we're officially over the chamber of commerce temp that should mean we made the cut today. The play-in team -

heh. somethin like that -