Typhoon Tip

Heh... helluva signal materializing now in the operational compendium. They're all over 590 non-hydrostats spanning over the eastern mid latitude continent beyond D7. 588 dm canonical big dawg is broad and expansive and N of our latitude. Heights approaching 596 in anticyclonic axis over WV ... Wouldn't concern too much with details ( obviously ) at this range, if the gist of that scaffolding is correct, that's going mean the biggest heat wave we've seen up here in New England in some years - at least per my own recollection.

I don't know how anyone would be daring to assess anything less that hostile hot or inimical to winter ever again with the way CC's not only winning in that debate but flogging heads with its trophy. LOL

Could use rain here at this end of Route 2. We just spanned 5 consecutive days of near or over 80 days, with low side DPs, under and anomalously obstructed insolation. During solar max, that's a rather high evaporation rate. Ground water is still elevated no doubt - but just for surface purposes.

Must just be unlucky. Haven't heard any thunder around Ayer Ma in 3 or 4 weeks.

Looks like there's a new kid on the block https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.13063

Really 68 dp?

I know you mean well here but unfortunately it won't work. I've tried and tried and tried to penetrate that mind with this and other bits of methodology, as well the general frivolity of attempting to do so anywhere E of the Hudson ... It can't be done.

https://phys.org/news/2024-06-global-humans-high-scientists.html

Remember that little sci fi thriller by M. Knight Shiama romma lomma ding dong whatever is name was spelled, called the "Happening" ? Basically, the plant fora somehow gets a collective consciousness, one that's had enough of human bullshit and decides its time to eradicate them. So one fateful afternoon they begin releasing some sort of unknown or undetectable toxin that drives people immediately to kill them selves upon inhalation. I like the concept in principle but it didn't really translate very well to the cinema - at least that version of it. But because I like dystopian themes as an accomplished sci fi author, that sort of biased my grading and I gave the film a pass. Anyway, this years choking pollen issue was reminding me of that. heh. I was all psyched to pull the cycle out of the shed, tune up the chain and air the tires... and hit the bike paths... but earned 3 migraine head episodes and irritable attitude syndrome, along with prickly madness attacking my upper trachea for 2 or 3 days for my trouble. Pollen can be f'n toxic man.

Kidding aside, there's some suggestion there. "Increasingly concerned," that may actually be a little too strong for current indicators, but this/may be yet evolving. There is rising NAO (of uncertain ending magnitude) with falling PNA ( also with uncertain destiny), both occurring on the aft side of +PNA that has a much higher confidence of collapsing to at least neutral That's close to the leading signal for a warming ejection E over the eastern mid latitude continent. In concept, the antecedent +PNA traps Sonora-NM-AZ-SW TX region under a sun that by virtue of those environment(s) the air mass is very highly proficient in energy absorption. Plus, the regional sigma ( elevation in pressure coordinates) places that air mass at a particularly useful altitude for mixing with the lower thickness during diurnal expansion once that air mass is displaced and/or expanse E (evil foreshadow). That's the prep work... but then... as the mode of the +PNA relaxes, releases the trap ...and synoptically ejects that highly kinetically charged air mass out of the SW. If/when the circulation mode of the +PNA --> -PNA is well-expressed ( the non-hydrostatic heights balloons over the eastern middle latitude continent), as said kinetically charge air mass is injected into it. The higher non-hydrostratic heights, being symptomatic of DVM at mid levels, lower clouds and adds a compressional aspect ... high solstice or near equivalent high insolation... this/these combined metrics are climatologically shown to produce extremes of temperature ( + ). Lately across the globe, where there are other recognizable heat transport routes ( for example, the Saharan air layer injection over the Gibraltar straight/western Mediterranean gets caught up in a western European mid and u/a ridge expansion. That is how the British Isles down to France and Spain can cook ), these have been over performing. Modeling may signal a much above normal few days of temperature, but what results is both longer in duration, but maximizing above the guidance suggestion. These so called 'synergistic heat waves' ( papered ) are recognizably increasing in frequency. There have been heat waves across the U.S. every year ... but only 1995 and 2012 are rank-able among these types, and these predate some of the recent hyper extremes that have been occurring. Are we do ? As far as our local region, we have not experienced this here in New England since perhaps 1975 on a single day, but given to the shortness of duration as provided by a brief/transient synoptic circumstance, it seems that was a 'spike' outlier that may not fit the above compendium. The next time one of these sets up across the Nation, there is probability that it will be unique

Ah ... not sure y'all got that quite right. RONI is actually a colloquialism for Pepperoni, a variety of spicy salami-style processed food made from an amalgam of cured pork and beef, seasoned with salt, paprika, chili flakes or cayenne pepper, fennel seed and garlic. The term was long ago formulated amid Americana for its delectable inclusion and is therefore most useful in that culinary application and recognition. So tired of misnomers

Looking at the stream lines ... NW flow at mid levels with this sort modest but increasingly wet SW flow taking over the region underneath does look interesting for some organization of updrafts. Hail?

Shower with big drops coming through ... Satellite suggests this is a cluster of elevated/nocturnally driven convection .. which in theory it dissolves as the sun pummels the cloud tops and kills the radiative -related cooling mechanics... [ blah blah enter popsicle headache here ] I was watching some local forecasters on the TV at the gym at 5 yesterday and they had 86-88 F for highs today. Three towns away I'm sure one would say sure... but here right now, it may as well be a bad camping trip feel out there. The same sat loop, combined with what typically happens when these nocturnal convective decays ... both would argue we're partly sunny by 10 and this is a memory, but... we are putting some theta-e into the boundary layer. SPC has eastern NE in Marginal ... Just some morning obs -

The phenomenon appears to be taking place elsewhere, too, around the 30N ( ~ ). India, suffering its greatest heat wave on record relative to date, is also ... prior to the onset of monsoon. That said, Mexico nor India are delayed monsoon - typically begins in June. It is the heat that is/has been premature. There's a cause for that, which is disconnected from the monsoon circulation as a response to seasonal forcing.

It stops when the protogene of the cause is removed from the system.

Getting increasingly concerned for significant heat mid month. Wholesale telecon collapse in all major ensemble systems wrt +PNA ….possible even a mode reversal. Mode flipping PNA to negative PNA is the eastern North America loading pattern for big heat. Meanwhile the distant “probability Horizon” of the operational runs are starting to pick up on the scaffolding for southwest heat release timing well with that numerical suggestion above. A week of +PNA first though… Which I’m not even sure how much it’s gonna cool off because it looks like the vortex stretches and elongates north of us really and that’s going to block the cold from actually getting around and underneath. Maybe more seasonal with thunderstorm risks

man... an average month might make us all rage in frigid declaration. May finished + 4 at ORH and + 5 at HFD. Who'd a thunk. It's probably my own issue but for some reason, these don't feel like warm months to me. what the f is wrong with me

https://phys.org/news/2024-05-delhi-limits-human-hot-countries.html

We may be setting up significant heat mid month

I've wondered before how a 1936 heat wave would be if it occurred today. The thing is, it's not just an arithmetic assumption - like ...we cannot just assume since the climate is X degrees warmer, add that difference to the outcome. That's not how things work. The 'synergistic feedback,' a phenomenon that has been contributing to those heat explosions taking place all over the globe, cannot really be predicted as they are emergence that exceed the parametric input into the system ...i.e., "more than the sum of the contributing factors" ... that is why modeling will fall shy of the extreme results. The idea here, if one is intuitive and clever, the "synergistic potential" in 1936 is different than it is in 2024. For example, better land management and thus sustaining irrigation ... it's not clear how that would effect a feedback model. The daily "burst" temp is higher today than back whence...no doubt. Just looking at London, the Pac NW ...France and Australia and SE Asia frequencies. But the better land management may cap some of the extremeness too. It's a lot of math there.

You know it's funny ... the circulation was always about the slow moving thermal-haline cycle/forcing with the fresh water inclusion at surface density/buoyancy effecting the chimney fall rates ... ultimately slowing the overturning cross hemispheric oceanic circulation. We've actually been discussing that for ... wow 30 years at this point. That's still out there as far as I'm aware. Particularly if Greenland decides to unburden it's Millennial mass. etc... But wait, now we have these other circulation mode catastrophes emerging that show the not-so-slow moving characteristic. Beautiful.

I'm hoping the small volumetric scale of this house will assist the application and use-case ... not noticing much bias when cooling vs heating. I'm going to leave the baseboard resister heat installed this first winter coming up here and we'll see. This house heats up and cools down very quickly, probably owing to said scale.

Just my personal hunch/hypothesis but ... the Earth's various complexly interacting forces creates a kind of 'elasticity' in the system, where the system recoils after exertion has been forcing deviation from era-relevant norms. We observed a multi-year Nina ... It suddenly evacuated a year ago February ( centered more so upon - ), and immediately by mid summer everything rebounds, and like all rebound mechanics ...they tend to go above, before coming back down, ...overcompensating a little...before finally coming to a rest. The atmosphere in all directions and heights soared, BEFORE the El Nino could possibly have been causal. Then, the El Nino limps onto the seen a month+ later, only some 60 or so % of the magnitude that it was modeled to be. This is very speculative and sort of 'artistic' as an impression. But plugging a taut rubber band? So we had that 4 year Nina, the Nino may not have really represented a true pan-systemic globally integrating El Nino, but a rebound span of time. Then, as it then recoils, the models may now be 'overstating' a new Nina .. this goes on until - This is all predicated on the assumption that new mechanics won't get involved that break up this immediate cause-and-effect sequencing - in fact it's likely that happens and obfuscates.. but oh well. I wonder if the impending Nina is weaker than this last Nino, which was both weaker than the preceding 4 year Nina but also was overstated by modeling prior to it.

Could even be a wake-up call. A pulse reading that a modality is formulating where the bulk populous leans toward the veracity of climate change. If these democratic society leaders want to retain their power seats, they'd better plug their shit into something like the objective reality - dangerously hot air is in the commoner's living rooms. Having 100 to 110 routinely over the 2 to 3 weeks leading the election ...prooobably didn't hurt her cause? Lol. I'm just speculating here, but I find that amusing. It would be interested to hearing exit polling commentary, though. Perhaps the masses have spoken, and their collective vote sends a message that if you want power and control over issues that affect all people, you had better stop screwing around. Either way, to suffer that kind of heat and then a left wing climate specialist - like no shit! 'Hmm, maybe we ought to seek council from those with a sense of what's f'ing going on outside their environmentally controlled ivory towers.'

I wouldn’t try to assess Tolland Connecticut as having the same problem with back doors as say, Bedford Massachusetts because the two locations just do not have comparable experiences with regard to that phenomenon. I don’t think you should try to make that assessment from that location either because you would be incorrect. That said today’s back door never actually came down. There’s a difference between having a gradient wind be northeast across the area, vs a cold wind burst associated with the back door rolling under. Where I am located in Ayer Massachusetts a Northeast wind is actually a land source and it was doing it under 850s that were plenty warm enough to keep us close to 80° under full sun, which is what happened