Typhoon Tip

well yeah. as is? of course... we toss everything. the usage is a point of principle and exposing where the emergence should be. which btw, i still feel the 20th -23rd is the hot period within the 17-24th in general. by the way ... the gaga range suggests we reload between xmas and ny.

mmm yeah i get it, but this winter seems more like a front loaded one - if perhaps still mutilated by cc in a way ... but that's what it is. it's still different than getting those weird late october and november one shot deals that didn't really come in the same mise en science/appeal. lol. that's obviously about as subjective an opinion as there could ever be biased so ... not something i want to get my ears pinned back over or whatever. i just get the impression of (season committed to a winter hemisphere + cc quotient)/2 = still able to represent

heh, that cfs was ginormous ... this is raging from ne va to d.e.m while this low goes down to the low 980s, from this position to the gom - i mean that's a wow run. we've prooobably entered the eye-candy range on this threat assessment effort. which means ... every couple of other runs or so some model will purify the extent of the potential but obviously ... constraining one's wits and wants within the confines of conservatism ... oh who am I kidding of this group! seriously though, it's been maybe 10 years or more (?) since we could have fun on this side of xmas. at least we got that goin' for us

06z gefs abruptly condenses the signal comparing to previous cycles, which were far more dispersed - altho did hint. this below is a nice emergence for a 200+ range ... this is also not too dissimilar to the 00z euro but of the two ensemble means, the 06z gefs mean was the louder beacon. what both have in common that i really like for this range, is the continental high pressure parked over the dekotas/np region. that's a pretty common fixture in climo for setting the stage and/or in situ to events around the ec

not to be a douche but I did outline why the wind was less likely to materialize yesterday. i'm actually seeing this a better rain producer than modeled. i may not be right about this particular observation but that's what this looks like at a glance as far as in-bucket

perhaps an inferior product ...don't know, but this from the grand rapids, mi office is one i like, too https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=grr

something we haven't seen in recent years ( really ..) re the mjo... the phase space may actually be in constructive interference around the nw quad of the rmm that's usually a prelude to a cold americas ... in this case timing post xmas. i find it interesting that we're getting to this look prior to the mjo contribution ... but, as we've ( or "I" rather ) have emphasized int he past, the mjo is a constructive or destructive interference mechanism, not a pattern driver. if that were not enough... there's a gfs modeled hot plume intrusion at high altitudes amid the polar stratosphere - long way before knowing if that's a down welling forcer though. any cold dividends to mid latitude wouldn't be until until later on in the winter - if so

ha ... love the suggestion for repetitious cycling ...but that's way off

higher than median confidence about it in my perspective at this point ...this will turn out largely to have been another success in extended/long lead signal determination... this doesn't do much - yet - for those seeking a dose drip, i know. ha! but steadily ... the numbers of individual operational run cycles finally biting on the canonical synoptic construct has been getting more frequent - they are converging on the advertisement. it lends to said confidence... it's not like these are throwing out nice patterns and/or embedded events in an antecedent dearth of signal - that's the key this 12z gfs really can't get any better from this range in term of the 500mb evolution leading up to this chart and then thru the interval and it's spot on. i don't have a problem anymore with the idea of spending time ferreting out objects in time. it's noted the ggem has a continuity with the +pnap more than less like below.

oh ... 'wet cold' is the absolutely pinnacle in 'abysmality' ( probably not a word but should be ...) it's part in parcel as to why spring in new england is straight from satan's heart and shouldn't actually exist in reality. heh. mean, soon as i clear a million ... buying a bug-out home option somewhere else, and will automatically just f'n leave on or about march 15 and not return until the pattern has convincing pulled the bd dildo out for that season...usually early may but with caution - i'll take a 10 f white out choking snow rates before a 35 f rain. you can actually stay relatively dry in the former because snow takes time for snow particles to change phase states, and also ...the cold dps evaporate whatever tries to enter water really fast... that's why snow "seems" drier than rain ...because it is. cold wet sucks life energy out of you. there's a reason why people that slip into the n. atlantic have 3 minutes to live.

this is pretty cool... logan has a nw wind at 3 kts at 39 f. brockton, 12 or so miles as the crow flies? not far away. they are 58 f with a s wind

okay .. yeah. but, it's a problem in culture/society though. there's a disrespect also where people think they have the right to believe in falsity because/when they don't understand - like because the complexity eludes them, it must not be true. it's a weird ego toxicity about our peoples. lol (hint, half truth/droll humor too )

it's not black or white like that. just sayn' every situation is taken uniquely, with at least some deference to known influences that can and typically do force things to happen - and the additional 'art' there is that the amounts also vary. this latter aspect is crucial. those that discuss aspects out in time are operating at a higher confidence than 'just not knowing,' because they may ( or may not ...) have access intellectually to what those influences are.

having an anticedent -epo that precedes the onset +d(pna) is a very effective means for laying in a negative temperature anomaly along 40n ... all the way across. the -nao, particularly one biased over the western limb, that's not hurting to maintain cold air - it's just not abundantly necessary. i don't speak for everyone but much of the 'hostility' that's emerged over the last decade ( i suspect ) is like 'we were always lied to' resentment. sort of. but it was a good thing, because really these winters and their ongoing observation along the life-cycle of so many events ..et al, they have been exposing that aspect. previous to that, the 1990s popularized the nao as though it were this silver bullet for things to happen and it just was never true. in fact, the former circumstance presages/excites cyclogen parametrics between colorado-like to cape cod-ness .. in general, which ride along the baroclinic axis/ thickness gradient. so long as one's latitude is n of that storm's track ... probably going to do alright. until 2056 or so, when cold air just simply mean 42 instead of 32 ... lol

that's quite the big storm there on the euro - the thing is, it's showing really the incredible potential inherent to that week - i mean, it's getting to that solution with handicaps. a bigger western ridge and that's a triple stream phaser... very rare indeed. where is f* is the western ridge! jesus h anyway, regardless of the idealized state ... which never happens anyway, this run (operational) did show at least more western ridging and immediately that happens. long way to to go

12z gefs was incrementally improved over the previous two run cycle re the 17th - 24th, wrt the handling of the pac and the subsequent ( implied ) forcing over western n/a - forcing it has been somehow skipping. heh. edit, oh you already posted that -

i think it could be ... "could be" - not looking for anyone to shish kabob any nuts over it. it's just that for those of us open to the research, we're getting bombarded by articles like this, https://phys.org/news/2024-12-ai-earth-peak-hottest-years.html ... and sometimes the shoe fits? the trend you observed has been happening in all dimension, at the scale of the integrated planetary system. the huge T surge in 2023 .. well that list is huge and growing where at both wholesale, and quadrature, empirical/registered data is outpacing 'well-informed' anticipation basis' it just seems reasonable enough that if the whole world is doing this, there are likely regions of quadrature that also do irregularities along a general upward modality in climate. having said that, yeah... there could be several years of a fractal that sort of like, don't outpace ... but it ain't like we're going to "inpace" either - it seems abundantly more wise to assume we are rising regardless, but is a matter of whether it is subtle or gross. when ever there is bias to rise(fall) the anomaly behaviors/extremes will tend to favor which . it's interesting i'm personally "testing" this year. we've had a so-far early cooler expression, thanks to a -epo--> +d(pna) about a month ago. it struck at perfect solar calendar time, right as we were entering the solar minimum. you get one of these on feb 1 and you may not get a month out of it before it starts moderating on you... ( this is part of why my personal druthers likes the front loaded winter variety ) my test is to see if this wasn't just a seasonal prelapse like we've seen in recent years, just happening to have occurred a month later... or if this is leading to a front loader - not sure but it feels ( if not altogether rationally LOL ) like we're at the threshold of determining over these next couple of weeks.

meh ...don't read in too deep on that. it was for droll snark. Das got it. it's like laugh a little

my mini splits all shut off for a 15 minutes and the indicator panels switched readouts to "dF" which means defrost mode. it's the 30 f air with a dp of 29.5

this is fascinating ...https://phys.org/news/2024-12-ai-earth-peak-hottest-years.html

then cc happened and the reticence to acceptance, if not lack of understanding, both drive a dire psychology that became a detriment to morale and those merryville vision are more like the civility state of Book Of Eli …

by the way, the epo's need a bigger qualitative assessment manifold as far as where the positive height anomalies situate during the negative mode. it's not just whether they exist or not. part of the problem with the epo usage is that people don't do that. - or they don't know how to really do it the right way. not sure who wrote what but the topic caught my attention skimming back. how these indexes teleconnect depends where the anomalies materialize within the domain. they're all like this. wpo ...epo...nao... etc, and it is not just 'where' the anomalies situated, either ... there is a timing in the onset versus decay, too. it's complex. one thing you should look for with either a static -epo, or -d(epo), is whether there is a lagged appearance of a +d(pna). this hand off of mass fields is much, much better correlated to winter events between the lakes and the ma/ne regions.

it's going to make this next 30 yours an interesting sequence of changes. 29 and still air 62 in turbine s gales ... flash freezing cold

near miss last evening huh ... its 29 here right now, classic tuck after it was 39 at 10pm and the rain was ending. if the tuck had happened just 3 hour sooner, we might have turned back back to snow/ice.

... there are still important changes being modeled among the ensemble means out over the pacific, changes that may, and really should, force a downstream ridge over the western mid lat continent. the signal is a favorable modulation for winter enthusiasts. so long as that is the case, there's a reasonable chance that the state of the modeling cinema would modulate that way in the days to come ... i get it that the average user needs to see the operational lines of snow on the mirror with a 20 dollar bill of a pattern rolled up, but in this situation we have to look deeper and wait unfortunately. patience is a virtuosity of principle that's seldom employed in practice. i know it's hard when it comes to this because ... this isn't waiting for vacation day - not quite the same type of anticipation because of the whole addiction thing. haha no but the 18z gfs yesterday took a rather coherent step toward the better, with +pnap, a look that really should be emerging ... not going away. i realize the runs since did just that. the thing is ... the flow looks terribly unbalanced if this present cinema for the 17th -24th were to succeed. if the ens means are correct with that fantastic signal for troughing n-ne of hawaii, the flow across mid lat n/a would almost certainly need to change, and physically driven toward a western ridge. i am wondering if pac changes may flee the runs ... which would be fantastic. it would be like negative time/going backward.