Typhoon Tip

op ed, the globe was likely incorrectly prognosticated all along. observational bias ( however well-intended and objective or not, not withstanding ) was not challenged soon enough, when ongoing validation of the sciences related to cc, inherited from the earlier/more primitive predictions back in the 1990s through the aughts of 2000, was probably too primitive. challenging the predictions was less likely to really occur, if not unknowable. but .. there may have been some clues. honestly, consider this: the behavior of climate change impacts being observed earlier, and in some cases much earlier than anticipated. that began about 15 or 20 years ago, really. and probably of greater importance within this context, a repeating behavior. it wasn't just like 1 or 2 consequences having beat out the modeled timing on things. a spectrum of 'faster than was predicted' observations have been occurring. this thing that just happened in 2023 ? in principle, it completely fits that leitmotif - one that i feel pretty strongly is being considered like a deer in the headlights syndrome. otherwise, someone with a imagination and a pragmatic toe hold on the objective reality of what is actually taking place ... might have wondered when the primary metric - actual air temperature - would do something similar. hindsight is 20/20 so its difficult.. i get that. as to why, complex systems in nature ... it seems some sort of philosopher, perhaps one illuminated thru a mathematical lens could propose a law of unintended productivity, that has both a negative and positive sign. heh, there's probably already something like this - hard to imagine that between the first proto-hominid picking up a burning stick, to Archimedes, to quantum computing cores at the other, this has not occurred. it's a matter of simpler research but regardless, imagine given enough polynomial functions contributing to a system ... there will always be at least some quotient of gain(loss) that could not have been predicted. i'm sort of wearing my science fiction writing in this paragraph at that statement, but it seems too plausible... anyway, i believe as time goes by, what we were really seeing all along was a suppression of a global temperature rise that was going to be incorrectly forecast in the absence of a negative synergistic factoring. like all fractals ... that factor eventually just terminated in time. the metaphor of having been spring loaded is cliche that is apropos. and the logical conclusion if something like all that is true ... the world ain't going back -

yesterday's 44 matches the greatest diurnal I can recall living in this location now coming up on 15 years ( about 13.5 years longer than I ever intended or really wanted to live here but that's sides the point...). 32 to 76 kfit was 45!! 28 to 73 36 was the low here this morning. heavy car top frost after a high of 76 the previous afternoon, and probably at least that warm and likelier for 2 or so more, these are some impressive multi-day roller coaster rides.

fascinating a microcane. very rare considering this thing’s history it’s safe to question how long it’s really been this way.

vastly warmer than normal winter with one or two short duration cold incursions not shocked if your local climate sites are +4+ every month

18z nam is roasting Monday. that’d be 85

32 ... looking for about 74 given to consensus, machine and man. gonna be interesting to see if we can really diurnal by 42 points. not sure, because in one hand .. i rarely ever see deltas over 36 ( usually the biggest of the year at that ) here. yet on the other hand, the synoptic parameters would actually support 75 if the mixing depth matures to 850 - which it may not.

it's amazing when it gets that extreme. that 47 on june 1 would support about an 89 kash temp by 3pm

30 to 65 ... impressive diurnal today!

also... just cursory eye-ballin' 2024/ 10/17 is about 20% more so on this date than 2023/ 10/17 fwiw

not sure how this compares to norms but here's the 30 day anime from usicecenter.gov

oceanwx was pointing out the other day that negative retention has become a kind of climate signal in and of itself. not sure what the feedback spectrum really is but it's easy to make plausible. the types of snow that are falling may be getting paradoxically lower in water - like it snows fluffier in cold air, to greater depths, but then a 'beef event' rains into the more gossamer snow pack and it's thus less resilient... etc. just spit-balling. one could almost holistically intuit that may be related to the same idea/observation in how globally, glaciers have been retreating, too - but either way, he was saying that the good old days ... a snow event or two, then a rain ... and the snow would absorb to refreeze and then the next snow layers ... etc. now more often even a deeper snow pack gets vanquished. i'm wondering if his office has really made that observation numeric, and in/of doing so ... what the temperatures in the low level are before and after the changes in the pack behavior. interesting -

probably getting more common

impressive diurnal ... 59 here, up from 30.

this reminds me of a personal muse i've been struggling with .. and that has to do with identifying the pacific warming as a heat "wave" waves by definition have a time dependency where they do not persist indefinitely. it's a wave ... it has some sort of precursor physical registry in the system, followed by a surge in whatever metric it is effecting, followed by a reduction in energy. thus, it is an ephemeral condition. it may just be a matter of semantic nitty picky shit ... or, maybe it reflects a fallacy in the understanding of what is going on with the oceanic sst/energy budget overall, within the ocean and outside where it is quasi coupled to the troposphere. hmmm like maybe this is not a 'wave' in that sense and should be thought of us the new basal state. in which case ...yeah, any telecon correlations that were previous to the new mode are rendered less than correlative. this true all over and everywhere. teleconnectors are correlating oddly. get use to it because the world may not be going back

the old standard method of telecon offer bleak outlook for cold/winter enthusiasts. -pna/rising epo/neutral positive nao, all while the super synoptic indicators are warm dog shit not that anyone asked, and i figure for no one really giving a shit what i want but despite my having been following these ensuing warm anomaly days this weekend, i really am an early/front-loaded winter guy. i get it that even prior to the hockey-stick climate f'ing era we are currently being pumped by, how front-loaded winters were rarer, anyway - but hey, we all have our fetishes - they still seemed to occur every 5 or so years.. obviously history annuls some truly astounding winter storms beyond the first week of february. despite that ... once the solar transition season gets underway around the 10th .. i just seem to be on autopilot and can't stop checking-out. i am an interested met no matter what ...so that keeps me sort of dialed in, but ... i have trouble feeling truly inspired by winter by those late chapters. it's like a book i lose interest in and put down with 3 to go. ha but those rare years where it's white by mid novie and decembers go nuts, i'm all in

yeah ..i wondered that.

so ... both the met and mav machine/mos coverage are right around 70 for sat maxes along the bdl-fit-ash-bed arc of the interior. the 850's are ~ +13c ... there's a light w to sw flow through the region, with way < 50% ceiling level rh values, while a neutral-dvm column. in other words, unadulterated sun. it's an interesting test here, because those metrics in that relationship should synergize ( at least some ...) warmer, while at the same time it's tough to ignore the sun is nearing the southern tree line at zenyth - i.e., getting tepid by now. the straight up adiabat from 13 is about 74 or 75, but that doesn't include the 2-meter super adiabatic slope temp... which can be 3 or 5 f above the adiabat after april 1 or so. not so sure about october 17 and fade away jump shots tho. it's not like the models can't 'see' the warmth entirely ... mex is over 75 on monday. but i'm curious if we can get an 80 out of the climo sites per the course of this sat - next tues ...

great post! this could have been considered/visualized 10 or 15 years ago but ... seasonal forecasting is a bit of an evolution requirement i suppose

welp ...now that winter's come and gone ... we turn the page into spring starting tomorrow. annnd as usual around here, we only get spring for one afternoon before the heat of summer bullies in. oh wait - actually, i'm rather impressed that there's no back dooring from sunday to next tue/wed. you can kind of see a paltry attempt to buckle/confluent the flow a little over ontario, but it the total mechanics are too longitudinal so it ends up just being a weaker air mass change. we'll see. but that's a nice extended period of out doorsy days persisting in the guidance - it's impressive how long this has been a stable look in the models.

last night was a classic radiational cold manufacturing, and yes ...it favors lower elevations. it probably floored somewhere 35 to 40 along any ridge or hill elevation that is adjacent to a cold air drainage sloping down to dales and nadirs in elevation. if you get out in the middle of plateau-like region, farther removed from a gravity well than there was probably a shallow decoupled pool of 32ies ... but by and large, these mornings don't freeze 10 year old tongues to flag poles around 1,000 feet. the preceding is a description designed specifically for Raymond -

i think "28 freeze" must be a rough or average because it froze here at 29. no question. it was 34 by midnight, and we were car-topped and glistening by 10. the graphs at the local sites all indicated several hours below 32 - it seems if we're spending multiple hours at 29 it's getting the job done. heh, morning nit pick

29 ..we were softly kissed by a frost two nights ago when we pinged 34 and a half for a low, but this morning is for real. Cold enough to even observed that still air cold shock leaf fall, a phenomenon owing to expansion of phase change in leaf stems fracturing - assuming so. usually kicks in around 30. i've seen late trees offload almost half their previous afternoon color in a single morning down to 19 before. it's a neat albeit nerdy observation i like to look for every autumn

lol buuut... gotta give Kevin the nod on that one. he did not say "80s" ... nor days and days of it? pretty sure he say a couple days of 80 given that spread there and well .. meteorology of that synopsis, 80 would be possible. reminder, it was 80 to 82 for 3 or 4 days in november of 2020 in the interior

and what's up with the 2-meter t's this weekend on guidance. ggem's frosting the interior dales under 590 dm heights. i figure for higher end diurnal ranges, sure but how wide -

i was surprised i didn't frost last night .. we stopped at 39. noticed some breeze at dawn so that's probably why - lack of decoupling. may not be an issue tonight.