Typhoon Tip

i don't care on this day ... that posters been nipping at me for some combination of their own low brow perspectives, along with a blatant tendency for petty ad hominem, for years... really enough is enough.

fwiw pdo ( https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ ) Aug 2024 -2.88 Jul 2024 -2.99 Jun 2024 -3.16 May 2024 -2.99 Apr 2024 -2.12 Mar 2024 -1.52

yeah, maybe ... and perhaps that is true for all that use pain killers. there's not as much science to back that up as the other, tho but there's definitely statistical correlation between cte and latter life onset of parkinsonism, and football is definitely among the list of sports described as contact. that's damning enough no one is jumping to conclusions. perhaps if you've ever read anything that scopes outside of your myopic impression of reality you might have a fuckin' clue enough to stop you from being passively hostile and asssholier than thou toward those that do. the correlation and possible causation is not my conclusion -

brett favre diagnosed with Parkinson's ... cte correlation - another argument for keeping one's kids out of contact sports.

it's my one patience challenge that i battle with, this constant ne llv feed deals. high pressure n-ne of us is working on 7 consecutive days and it won't relent the llv cold feed until that abates. it's just exhaustingly barren of interest, while and also stealing precious remaining time, tries to close the book on outdoor season prematurely while doing so - meaningless. these transition seasons in new england are really ... you know, if i had my druthers, i'd be traveling now and in aprils

a very difficult and complex set of reasons for that assessment ... haha

obviously it's relative to personal economics but ... fwiw, my out of pocket came to 4,500 ... the total cost was 14,500 ... which i did front, but ( provided the house/edifice meets some pretty basic home energy efficiency requirements) the rebate program was no bullshit. 10 large came back within 7 weeks of the project completion - so you get 10 K in a check about a mo and a half later. i'm pretty sure it's a state thing ? so being a massivetwoshits resident ...etc. just sayn'

that's really more in line with what i dream of doing. the battery tech is what kills you in that expenditure but given that's doable, an a.c/d.c converter off said battery sys that 'flops' surplus back into the grid, that is what i ultimately wanted. but, alas ... my roof space is too small to make that work for self-sufficiency. i don't have enough space of there. the property is also not able to fit for supplementing with ancillary panels in the yard ...etc. so, all things considered, vastly improved home heating and cooling tech combined with what generation i can muster with a smaller sized solar array was the best option for this location

unsure of other people's baggage but for me ... it's purely a war against ngrid my house is not large. 2 br upstairs, and just a small kitchen, living area and 1 full bath. yet, despite this small footprint was costing me 550 to as much as 800 $ a month from roughly mid nov to mid mar for electricity. the place is all electric. heat (baseboard resisters - ouch!) ... hot water ... stove ... fridge ... not much i can do about the stove as gas isn't accessible without town-scaled zoning/sponsored infrastructural digging after a bit of research it's become quite suspicious that recent hikes in both provider and delivery costs by these macro providers ( ngrid being one of those..) are more likely attempting to deflect incoming revenue losses. larger and larger areas of both residential and commercial are converting to renewable greener energy sources, and that has begun to cut into the previous model glut of these macro grid supplying, economic testicle gripper power providers (rhymes and alliterations on purpose!) so they've been cooking up these reasons for having to raise prices ... when the real motivation is to transfer their losses someplace else: the customers. that may be an over simplification ... or not even right, but it's a bad look for the likes of the ngrid lords. long of the short ... with mini splits being several factors more efficient than base board heating, and combining the solar installation that's hopefully happening ( pending roof structural engineering recommendations ...), at least my balls will be less in "ngrip"'s vice -

apalachee bay ? i thought 'big bend' was a tx thing

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-advanced-civilizations-overheat-planets-years.html ( https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.06737 ) one of, if not the most destructive geological disaster in the entire history of this planet may turn out to be the arrival of human innovation

hinted on radar and more coherently illustrated on satellite ... this morning there's an epic battle between -nao against the perennial/normal motion of west to east that supposed to characterize the mid latitudes the atmosphere is decoupled from above and below ~ the 700 mb you can see this channel jet flowing out of the -nao trainwreck ... the llv flow is carting along some spritzer showers into the region, while above that the clouds from the perennial motion is gliding in untethered to what's below

also, there's growing support ( fwiw ) for a more important mdr system over the next week to 10 ds. the status of the hemisphere : the baser uvm metric has improved a little - less negative in recent days. with the rmm mjo showing at least some modest presentation in phase 8-1-2 in the modeling, the correlation favors weakening the erstwhile suppression further - that which has helped cap the season to date. we'll see if we can pop the lid late.

my knee jerk impression from blending the models is that 'Helene' may actually get an assist in developing when she ( ...if it identifies Helene as a woman ) starts moving n-nne through the channel and over the eastern gulf. storm relative shear drops when that happens, while for a transient time ... the trough in the u/l off to the nw might create an outflow/channeling assist. i'm bothering to speculate because the models are dropping the pressure down to 940 mb in some case ( perhaps 948 mean) across these recent runs, and that's powerful hurricane, not more than 4 days from impacting the n or ne gulf. the preceding is for tropical enthusiasts in general ... not intended for local dystopian luster audiences

interesting looking over the 97L ( destined to born 'Helene' ) on high res vis loop this morning. i'm not sure if it is just an illusion put on by the frame rate of the loop working with cloud morphology, but that circulation in the low levels is already faster than TD strength - it would be despite not yet having been upgraded..etc... but like i said, it could be a trick of morphology and the fact that the frame rate isn't exactly hd

i read speculation somewhere years ago that the antarctic gain in that graph, lasting some 10 years between 2005 and 2015, was actually a complex feed-back from warming mid latitudes ( at first ) creating more gradient as it encroached upon the polar vortex. that increased velocities, temporarily strengthening the circulation, and a rampart that stopped warm air intrusions from penetrating into the vortex interior - but as all this intuits, it would likely be transient. sort of an initial response, so to speak. i haven't read/heard of any follow-up but the recency since 2015 with fairly obvious declination along that curve might fit that idea.

don't discount a repeat performance of snow, or snow supporting synoptic potentials along and n of 40 n/ e of chicago mid oct to mid nov - having little or no correlative value to the ensuing winter, either.

just a brief op ed on this: i suspect the recent pattern of behavior in the cc monitoring, related to sudden movements, might be more than just noise. the en masse wholesale atmospheric t surge last year, is a sudden movement into a new registry for example ( also experienced amid the oceanic ssts in all direction, everywhere, at once). as an aside, that cannot be explained by enso. i find it far more likely that enso was just happening to decay around the same time... however, the global atm and sst warm burst took place prior to the change for several weeks. that doesn't fit. the big nadir in ice on 2012 was also a reset regime change in my mind. i don't disagree that arctic sea ice has been something like stable since then ... tending to bounce around the basement isn't very comforting given the back ground. but a 'spiraling' adjective isn't supported in the observations. in any case, i'll be monitoring the d(recovery) rate now that the sun's set over the geographical n pole

i was thinking about this yesterday as our saturday was being royally porked by this -nao circulation manifold ... (eastern ne) how these -nao's in autumn and spring have been notable in a lag of some 7 to 10 days, post warm anomalies that pervaded the great lakes/ov/ma/ne regions. this happened post those exotic warm ups that occurred in the februaries since 2015, where several of them recorded ... really quite absurdly warm temperature events ( rel to climo). -nao's materialized afterward. when it was 80 to 87 for some 10 days recently from d.c. to pwm - its not the same anomaly, but it was impressive enough. it's really more about the supporting pattern evolution one striking example of this was october 2011, when during the teens of that month it was routinely in the 70s in the I-95 corridor with attending ridging --> -nao a week later... the snow event(s) late that october indirectly related.

is it a 'heat wave' or more permanent - marine heatwave phenomenon have shelf lives. this is beginning to feel like something in the scaffolding of the planet do the weight of persistence - just supposition speaking. 2ndly, are we certain that the west pac is why seasons are not behaving : i understand the appeal of finding a silver bullet cause but i'm just as curious that the weird winter thing and the west pac may both be resulting and not necessarily causally linked like that.

this is nice. i wasn't admittedly expecting any sun today but ... we seem to be eroding out the mid and upper level deck with just some cu streets overhead. sat confirms this regionally, too - tho e and berks working on it

in fact not only what scott was saying but there's attempt there to park another warm ridge node over the the e mid latitudes

Okay ...yeah I remember that too. weird coastal it plunked down in the middle of an otherwise ridge was odd looking. now it's all but gone.. fits what i've been noticing about the erratic

what time range are you referring ? - not intending to 'defend' the euro here, but i've noticed that every model has been particularly bad in the mid+ range for a few days now, in this region: just curious cuz they've all been flip-flopping on placement of ridge and trough nodes in that nebular flow region below the appr polar branch, way more so than normal variability for d5-8 range.

oh we may as well be on a raft bobbing over the flemish cap with this seldom understood reality of marine micro climate here