Typhoon Tip

might be the warmest 850 look leading this pattern change yet

it starts in the asia dispersion/wpo

some are already aware but useful recap/nested links either way... https://phys.org/news/2024-09-earth-hottest-summer.html

I’m suspicious of the melt season lasting 10 or so days late.

what's perhaps most daunting of all about that svalbard location is that it's not like a freak low pulled a warm plume ... we're talkin' about a whole month average.

i'll give the guy credit. that's a humorous delivery there -

probably a lot of 80s with unusual warm nights d6 to 11 solar's nearing the equinox. the lower troposphere is only marginal for 90 . if the modeling starts warming further then maybe we score a late 9 0

put a phys.org link over in Global Average Temperature 2024 add s. korea to the list

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-south-korea-highest-average-summer.html

It’s interesting that neither candidate’s addressed gun control - seems that of all travails society faces the imminent peril is clearly one devouring itself … seems worthy of at least a mention.

I mean what … it’s only been a couple o months since that last mass shooting

you know ... i admit to not taking the 00z nam very seriously. heh, why should i - but seeing it persist with the 06 and now 12, re a rapid book-end spin up tracking toward cape code, and the euro being more than less on board, i would think at least marine interests around the horn should be made aware. i'm sure that's happening - so maybe more for us lol it'll probably miss. nam may be both right about existing and wrong about where. but the point is, it's short term/now cast

oh, duh - the embedded links bluewave provided there seems to suggest that. so yeah

you know i have a completely ot thought on that. the warming med has been prevalent. i've been wondering if at some point the ohc being an abutter to the aridity of the n africa might get interesting. ... at what point does (or could) rising saharan heat start drafting in very high latency/wv content - similar to other monsoon circulation modes around the world. like i said, ot. heh

yeah i could nod to this approach we exist in ( and because of ..) the kind of complexity that is not just linear, but is interactions among products as well. these latter interactions in turn cause emergence that are difficult ( to put it lightly ) to predetermine, because when attempting to do so, they may not even exist if the linear products are not precise predicted. with all that calamity ... there's no way, zero possibility, that a systemic behavior is a result of a single input. it comes down to amounts of contribution - with a dose of spatial relativity.

25 to 30 deg deltas by 10:45 am is pretty fantastic. 47, now 75 kfit 50 --> 75

oh shit yes. of course. not intending condescension there ( ha) no but just as a base physical consequence to more warm air, it evaporates more water. that means the ambient atmosphere holds more water mass - such that all events in that same ambient medium will avail. that very basic concept is why rain rates have been increasing around the world ... in close correlation with cc ...etc. no question remains re that connection. based upon that facet, increasing ( non dispersive ) ohc, and then inducing a mechanism to release it - that's sort of what i was 'hinting' at with that 'restoring going the other way' thing a while ago etc - that sets up regions in storm frequency to additional prolific results. the in situ storm gradients become excessive - the baroclinic physical result is rain ( or snow or whatever ). positive feedback ==> evening news

i know in all seriousness tho i was more actively posting related material about jesus ... 5 years ago. but it was new then, necessary to get word out. i've since supplied links to papers and so forth. side's hc isn't everything. it's definitely a part of the roni "integral" - whether the authors of that science are aware or not. but the regions outside hc are also guilty in the offsetting too. hc isn't as paramount to the discussion as is considering the entire planet.

it's been quite a while - i mention it when it is appropriate to do so

i don't make many of them. altho admittedly, may be the only one that brings that to bear in this social media it is appropriate in thread at this point. hc is just one among other noted alterations to the hemisphere's circulation modal anomalies. it's also been papered in climate.

mmm it can lend to quiescence perhaps like this tropical season ( so far..). but important to realize, the restoring periods can be other way i'm wondering about the ensuing winter hemisphere. part of the cane climo isn't really to give web dystopia addicts their high. it's actually existing as a geophysical mechanism to transport heat from the equatorial latitudes to the polar latitudes. with a suppressed cane turn out, where is the heat surplus going? it's a question of conjecture at that point. no aver as to a forecast there. but intuitively, it's an important question. my immediate impulse suggestion is to add some amount of a tera joules to the already raging fast base line velocity thing.

i don't think so - not based upon that data presentation, anyway on the right side, there's clearly a multi-decadal trend line with a significant positive slope, while on the left hand side ... the scale of that color palate is decimals. d(t) between 2023 and 2024 results a decimal value that fits along that trend line, a trend that was established/predates the this recent 6 months if intense solar onset.

i explained what's been the issue a couple pages ago. hc expansion is screwing up the canonical wave propagation in both time and space. both the kelvin and mjo, and as a result, the longer term uvm tendencies have been 'stuck' stuck so to speak - like a standing wave. i'm actually curious at this point if the positioning of this around the hemisphere is just bad luck, or if it is preferential for having former circumstance. everything being described in scott's post by these others can be linked. monsoons --> n. vague yet crucial mid level ridging ...etc expanded hc doesn't mean 'big and strong' hc per se. it in fact means the circulation and internal mechanics are weaker - the termination latitude of the hc where it boundaries with the westerlies become more blurred and also higher in latitude. low frequency static observations of that like are quite consistent with all that.

yeah i hope it's 77 every day this fall lol

if you looping this ... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml ... one may see that that uvm anom distribution has predominated since well prior to that, or any particular mjo for that matter - which was incoherent prior. as well, technically at present we are not in or aft of a phase 5 or 6 as of yet. that doesn't strike me as mjo causally linked to phase 5-6. it may be that phase 5-6 correlates well, but since the 'standing wave' nature of that anom distribution predates the mjo presentation, it leaps out as coincidence - perhaps some feedback ( constructive interference ) moving forward, notwithstanding.