Typhoon Tip

holy crap... that's like really rare guys. the GEFs mean really spares (or harms...depending on one's point of view) the northeast by NOT having a period of northwest flow at mid levels prior to the ridge apex in space and time having it's fullest affect on the region. that's code for no typical front side bd event to retard the heat down to half or less residence. it actaully goes from WSW to SW to W to WSW during about a four day stint in that 00z blend/evolution, which is means it just sort of gets ridiculous and stays that way. still, ... we are protected by D8+ ...and I think also the fact that it seems to be having trouble getting closer in time ...could all just be part of the illusion

hard to ignore though ...jesus wow. i got like 9 out of the 12 GEFs with an eastern ridge that looks borderline historic for so early -

yeah... i'm gonna go ahead and take the under on the D10 Euro 101 F for Logon look ... That's pushing climate boundaries as an understatement. The D9 20 C's at 850 mb poised to move in ..then, growing in areal coverage and also warming to 21 or 22 C is probably some sort of record that's never been achieved at that altitude, latitude, and date. At least, ...I've never heard of that sort of temperature layout at that altitude on April 30 over PA and SNE... The other thing, this is now the third day I have seen this -PNAP warm look on D9-10... which means, why isn't on D6-8 now? Answer, because it's not getting into shorter ranges - which makes me wonder.

Man, for warm weather enthusiasts that D 8 through 10 evolution of the operational Euro from 00z last night is superb eye-candy. Hate to say ...but again, as I mentioned yesterday (and it persists) the signal is there for a warming trend as we close out the month. Obviously these individual runs of x-y-z model for a-b-c specifics beyond D5 or 6 should strain believability .. to put it nicely.. Having said that, every member of the GEFS and the blend therefrom are/is flagging a -PNAP configuration to the flow ... taking hold post the 27th or so. It'll be interesting to see if that evolves for something we haven't seen since... gosh, I wanna say 2009? and that's bona fide early season big heat. ...

In any event.... I guess there's some boredom kicking in to get the stream of conjecture flowing down the pathways of willy nilly warmth on a D10 anything.. haha. Ah, ... long summer in route... I will say that the idea of a warm end of the month isn't new in what's believable in the dying teleconnector correlations, and/or the general tempos of the long lead individual depictions and so forth. Magnitude and timing is up in the air. It could also be one of those things that plagues the D9 charts until it finally verifies around the time the kids go back to school - one of THOSE summers. heh. However, both recent run ins with 80+ weather did start out as ridge signals much like this... so, perhaps seasonal trends offers some limited confidence.

The GOM warming isn't trivial though. Will may be right in concept .. however, raising the SST by any amount has an impact on Delta(H) exchange rates, which is in part dependent on the air's heat sink in the total coupled system. Because of that, as the SSTs rise, the effectiveness on "chilling" the air mass does decline. However, ...if a near-by over land, early season air mass is very dry at 90 F (not atypical for early season warmth in the NE U.S.) and then we're talking about the difference between 45 and 41 F early spring SST's, the idea of that being more than negligible strains believability at bit. There is also evidence/papers out there (refereed) that discuss evidences in deep sea biota that suggest the Lab. Current has been steadily weakening over the last 100 years. Combining that with, or removing it, as part of GW is a monstrous task.. Nonetheless, if that trend continues decade after decade like that ...eventually the southern nose/termination waters may start to reflect that change - who knows if we are there, or if this is just some temporary thing. By the way , there is a ST low designated 1,000 or so naut mi WSW of the Azores if anyone is interested - pretty fantastic for this time of year.

What's funny about that panel is that the surface depiction for that same time implies about 54 F at NE Mass, with a BD jammed up under those heights clear to HFD. Seeing as we're talking hypotheticals (D10 Euro) ...we should point out for folks that there is a mega high pressing ESE through Ontario as that big mid and u/a 'magma chamber' bubbles it's way west through the EC...such that any BD would almost have to cut and gash its way SW - it's really like this run has an agenda to bring a hot pattern to everywhere except the bottom couple hundred MBs

Yeah... the sun offsetting is key. I was under a different impression that we would end up with more clouds capping this sort of putrid polar/Marine stuff... But, that changed beginning 00z the night before in increments; enough so that now the week actually doesn't look too bad - certainly not socked in like it did in the guidance tenor from two days back. I distinctly recall a succession of lows going just underneath us, with episodic high pressure building passed to the N back then. Sneakily changed -

Yet despite the grid, the MOS' aren't terrible - more like seasonally cool biased actually. Thing is, after three days of solid positive departures ... (exceeding 30 F in some cases!), even returning to just modestly above normal might seem frigid by relative comparison. That may affect/effect peoples judgement. But here, we augment that further with what appears to be manageable negatives if going just by the machine numbers. I was just looking at the GFSX MOS (which I believe is inputted by the para-GFS) and of the next seven days it has five of them below normal for Logan by an average of -2.29, and the remainder offer up +1.57 ... in concept the week is below normal, however, not exceptionally so. Normal sort of cool departures - Of course, machine guidance factors in climatology (I believe) the further out in time so, having a -8 F on D 4 might also be masking a pretty nasty day. But, it also has a +7 on D 6, which might also do the same in the other direction.

In any case ... having the FRH grid showing T1 temperatures for the most part steady or slowly falling over 24 straight hours under full April sun when in day time tomorrow, pretty amazing cold air.

Pointing this out to the straw man here: ...buuut, can't say we didn't have notice of the impending rectal plaque pattern. It's been in the larger scoped, mass field modes and modalities for days; that the PNA would mightily flip from negative to positive, in lag procession with the EPO's decaying negative interval was mentioned on a few occasions over the past week. Seems that's actually behaving rather well when comparing/balancing that facet against the tenor of most operational guidance and their ensemble means this morning. The particular spatial-temporal arrangement, where the -PNA/-EPO reverses... typically precedes eras where the anomaly distribution (temperature) ends up on the negative side. That's DJF ... with lap over depending on either end. We could argue that the seasonality of changing wave-lengths (R-numbers) breaks down teleconnector correlations ...or at least alters them. Sure. But that in its self is relative? Some years that happens earlier, where other years one may rely upon them a bit longer. This go of it...the stronger than normal gradient we've endured pretty much end to end since about Halloween, is still sort of there ... if perhaps morphed into an April complexion/hidden. But, the fastness of the flow doesn't really lend to the seasonal shrinking wave-length theory too well... So, perhaps it stands to reason that this particular spring ... a mid April arrival of +PNA/ delta(-EPO) doesn't end well for spring enthusiasts. In fact, in a science fiction muse ... thinking back to the April 1987 snow event in the interior: The present teleconnector spread and antecedent believe-ability is a marvelous presage to just such an event. I wonder what those mass-fields looked like back in the day, the week prior, because we have to look at the dailies and forget the calendar sometimes. The fact of the matter is, the PNA does flip from -1 to +1 or more, after a period where the EPO was not only negative ...but, the models et al are laying down a broad mass of 850 mb temperatures -10 to -25 C over central Canada (meaning said EPO was successful in cold loading). It doesn't matter what the calendar says, that's a couple of red necks playing with liquid nitrogen there.

yeeah, good luck with that. It doesn't look that way to me. The EPS is in on it too with days and days of either +PP north, or lows passing underneath... I don't see any DS dandies there - it really comes down to a question of geometry and where we are in relation to the direction the isobars, and how that suggests the winds will be in the boundary layer and that down-slope thing isn't supported really after Monday. What you describe could make for a spectacular Patriots Day, granted, but after that? all bets are off perhaps for a week straight. It could change still..but I'd be looking for other hobbies and past time back up plans if I were you just in case.

well... that's a particularly egregious looking Euro week... Holy Moses pop the cap off the benzodiazepine on that one - If you can, you may as well vacate to a new country until June in that look. Who knows how long that's going to last ...but the basic gist of having high pressure after high pressure passing N like that means just about the worst. I suppose there is a small contingent of users that actually enjoys that sort of weather ... like those of the -(S.A.D.) tongue-in-cheek the other day. Excluding those, there's really not much redeeming at all about that look... It insults all tastes. Nothing's verified yet of course but ...I was afraid of this. A couple few days ago I lamented that the overall teleconnector spread really argued for the worst and well, here we are in the models. we'll see...

Not a terrible assessment here, Kev', in terms of general appeal - heh. We've actually had a pretty lucky go of it (for those that no longer 'want' snow and cold) so far when we compare the regional verification/experiences against April climate/typology. The latter of which ...honestly, I don't know what the actual numbers are? But, we all know that April's of yesteryear have featured blizzards, heat waves, oscillations between the two, and too often ...good old fashioned stubborn, persistent dank so unrelenting as to drive denizens to the brink of cabin fever. And yes, sometimes when the weather god hasn't been paying attention, even periods of exceptionally serene conditions, say ... 60s or 70s with blue heavens allowing seasonal return of the sun to kiss our napes. That was just for you - ha! But seriously, I don't know what weather type above is 'more likely' based upon climate numbers. Personally, I'm usually so dreading if not fearing the annual 45 days venture down the weather imperilled yellow-brick road of spring in New England, I'm just too pre-occupied dodging the monkeys to quantify it all.. Spring more typically just sucks around here (imho), and like I say, ..this first two weeks of April so far isn't it - that's where we've been lucky. What the synoptic tapestry offered up by the models for next week is actually more akin to memory. So we'll see.. But, more practically, having midland to large sized southern Canadian polar high pressure developing and then translating painfully slowly across 3 or 4 days straight E and then NE of New England will at first impart NW flow...that gradually veers E over the time span. Over which, throwing occasional reasons to saturate the low level air mass from weak systems passing west ...it all could enforce days of socked in schits. I just I don't think I've ever recall an April that went end to end with these laissez faire type days the whole way. The type of gloom we've endured thus far is of a different ilk than 'dank' described above; it's transient and the next day has flipped right around to decent conditions. It may be time to eat it...

That' still okay but, meteorology doesn't just cover what people want... ? That's what makes the contribution in here dubious to the extend of egregious to be involved in at time - it's just a special interest group that happens to be fixated (regardless of psycho-babble cause) on a narrow aspect that happens to be proximal to weather. That's the annoying rub for objective unbiased weather enthusiast. To each is own I suppose but even our 92 heat waves and CB formations and so forth is fine for entertaining value to me as a Met that appreciates "weather"

It isn't a likely outcome of course ... however, the GEFs derivative have been trying to jam a cold pattern down our throats for a few days at CDC. The CPC isn't quite as emphatic in their numbers, but the CDC looks like a mid winter enthusiast's dream scenario, with a strong phase change rising from -1 to +1 PNA, which an NAO dive. The EPO also was negative leading the PNA ...which is a lag behavior that is pretty critical in actually getting a +PNA to deliver cold south. But, ...this isn't mid winter. So even if the CPC comes around a bit ...we have to wonder what the R-wave distribution would look like. Anyway, I just wonder if/when another shoe falls we end up pretty annoyed ... I wonder what the teleconnectors looked like prior to May 2005 -

I'm not sure it's that simple. It fascinated me enough that I actually researched the matter fairly extensively. I've tried to enlighten the general public in here as to those findings but it tended to spark resentment if not vitriol so I abstained. In simple terms, there is a -(S.A.D.) condition recently identified and refereed/papered by the psychology field et al. What it is, is just about exactly what that implies: those whose perceptions and functional emotions are negatively influenced by what consensus would considered to be 'nice' weather; in other words, opposite the S.A.D. condition consistent with the more well-renowned version of that disorder. Most who 'suffer' climate conditioning of that ilk are on the +(S.A.D.) side, but there is a contingent (~20%) of backdrop population that actually prefers stormy if not gloomy times. I first heard of this discussed on National Public Radio, and found their guests' psycho-babble descriptions of those sort of people interestingly and eerily similar to the sorts of reactions we 'sense' if not outright detect goes on in here when say ...some big storm fails to pass inside middle to short ranges on the guidance. There is a visualization that goes on with that, that is augmented and enhanced by the models and/or modeling tools in general...that (imho) drills right into that -(S.A.D) and really cranks the dial up on it too - fever pitch. The cinema in the "models" enable in a lot of ways, in the psychological definition of what the word means, too. It's like the internet and these operational guidance tools were specifically created to wind up a particular mentality; one that I think is technically a 'dysfunctionality' really because anything that adversely affects someone emotionally and/or mood-wise, that really ultimately does not actually do anything to them is an instability. The only difference here is that it's really ultimately pretty harmless. But we know this and joke about it... People have referred to "it" as "the sickness" ...ribbing and tongue-in-cheek and so forth but, some element of truth resides in all humor as they say. There's all that, but there is also an entirely different reason for the 'arousal' or 'wind-up' phenomenon, and it has to do with just simply wanting to experience dramatic weather? I used to actually feel physically nauseated back in the day when say... four days of blizzard watches unexpectantly verified as mere milk sun, in a biting 9 F wind, while the air festooned with mocking flurries. Depending on which form one takes above ... there is definitely (in my mind) a kind of distilling process that the phenomenon of Internet sub-forum concentrates as users come and either decide to stay or go in time... It's not just that Summer is boring? I find that to be edging on the side of disingenuous, really. It's that Summer does little to satisfy the above preference spectrum of users who don't give a schit about the transient impact of weak sauce thunderstorms, or the occasional dimmed heat wave because BDs pressed historic heat down to DC...

Not that good, from a purely teleconnector inference... Not sure if you know what those are, but they are statistical correlations that links one region of the planet with another. For example higher or lower atmospheric heights over Greenland often finds a counter status over the eastern seaboard of the U.S. There are teleconnector domain spaces all over the world, and they dance ... pulsing up and down, some over time spans of mere days, ..others taking longer to pass from one phase to the other. And everyone's correlation is thus changing in time. The models use numerous ensemble members; these are variations of the operational model version, with slightly perturbed physics/researched parameters. Together (em masse) their output is used to assess what the teleconnector modes will be out in time. From there, the savvy users that know what these correlations are may use them to influence their decision making wrt to operational and/or blended guidance in general. In this case, the GEFs ensemble system is arguing for a robust +PNA/-NAO tandem phase state. Either are cold and stormy in their own rites ...for regions of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, NE and SE Canada; but here, they are doing this at the same time. If that were not enough, preceding the rise in the PNA is a -EPO, which is a cold delivery signal into western and central Canada. In total that is bad for warm enthusiasts. It may signal a relay from a -EPO into a +PNA, which is about perfect of grabbing annoying chilly air and jamming it south. In the middle of winter I'd be telling people look out! ...not sure about mid to late April tho. The seasonal wave length shortening tends to muck with the correlations outlined above. There's that, and the sun really does obliterate cold thickness as an obvious offset. Still... my bet is that we may have to deal with some sort of cool departure period sometime out there before the end of the month.. There is no way to know specifically when, ...and sometimes tele signals don't pan out, either due to nuances in the layout of their specific anomaly distributions.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/26/africa/kenya-pope-francis-trip-main/index.html

Which side of the pole is the annular ring/oval... ? Last thursday was the 156th anniversary of the Carrington event. Just sayin'

Shouldn't have been so 'amazing' frankly. I realize I am but one voice opposed to a shrill din of bandwagoneers .. but no, 'been pounding the "NAO over rated drum" for a number of years. But hey - the only way to heard is to published so, taken fwiw - The EPO domain space and its timed relay into mode changes in the PNA, together serve as the primary cold loading patterns over N/A. The NAO is merely an assist, but not required. People pull statistics out of the cherry tree that show that x-y-z years were negative NAOs when more snow occurred, thus the natural conclusion is a-b-c. But no, ..that is all more likely because there is a weak negative correlation in the PNA/NAO relationship. Such that a rising PNA tends concurrently with a falling NAO over the longer term. Retrograde events do take place from time to time, but the rest state is west to east... NAO doesn't dictate snow events people. In fact, a "statically" negative NAO is a suppress flow exertion and that causes perturbations in the atmosphere to dampen/shear. The NAO may have positive last year on the whole, but I bet you dimes to donuts it was fluctuating up and down, above 0 SD, as the PNA/EPO were doing their thing.

One thing that's always stood out in my memory as interesting about that '92 storm was all the consternation before hand regarding p-type and where.... Yet, when all was set and done, not only did snow win out in most places (given time and dynamics depending) but the temp was into the upper teens in a lot of those some areas of interior eastern zones. That's not just a p-type and subsequent snow amount bust... that's busting with some serious panache! 17 F ??!! hello -

...oh man. After this up here, an advisory wouldn't even be noticed... People would be out running around in short sleeve shirts in relief if they got an advisory. 'Thank got we've improved all the way to an advisory -- now we can live normally again!'

Long way to go before that can be tested... I just saw a 12-18" graphic...

I have a hunch ... these cut-off histrionic historical hysteria storms... when the cut off, that gives a solid 12 hours for bands to move farther SW than modeled. Tends to happen. We'll see...