Typhoon Tip

Yeah agreed - Will and i discussed this last week about "thresholds" too. We surmised that say ...-1 or even -2 SD events may get absorbed into the noise of the atmosphere because of the discontinuity in wave numbers that takes place as the winter patterns break toward summer...etc. However, given a sufficiently powerful block ...say -4 and particularly details in its position (west vs east) and we'd see forcing/modulation of the anomaly distribution. Trick is... how often is even a -3 SD anomaly in the NAO domains space? The bell-curve mass of them all are probably between -.5 and -2.5... So you'd have to actually do a more advanced vetting process than just saying -NAO or +NAO...and condition it around real-time scenarios to find the "hidden" correlations - the ones that really matter.

The "panache" for that faded some on this cycle ...unfortunately. The look was better and closer to recouping some entertainment value out of this dreaded ensuing pattern, from the runs during the day yesterday. But, we know that this is/was probably more likely anyway. It could come back.. Some part of me wonders if we should have suspected a blocking May was on the way... I mean, we butt-sored above normals DJF, then went negative about the time people want things to go the other direction in March... That creepy persistence and success of the weather in delivering us the least desired result, relative to all tastes at all times, seemingly required the pattern during May tune up butts too - Heh. Truth be told it's been an acceptable spring by NE standards/climo. We had three days of surreal perfection over Easter, and enough 60 F type mostly sunny afternoons sprinkled through the weeks to challenge justification for complaints. It's just also a fact of climate that every so many years ...we cut off a seemingly interminable cold gyres like that. I've seen these modeled and fail too, though... I mean I'm commiserating as though it's already happened. Either way, it seems there's a consensus: either go historic and snow so we can be in awe, or... be at least menially acceptable... but don't do what it is doing right now as we type, with 46 F mist. I think out of all tastes, that is an absolute bottom turn-out fan club there. That's what 2005 was ... and it wasn't a week - it was three weeks folks. So far what we are seeing in the models is beat red-headed step child worthy - no doubt. But it pales in comparison to 2005.

Ha! yeah...i was "stinkin" that too - more likely that the models are overdoing things at this sort of time range. At least, that's the course of least regret. Having said that, that complexion from the GEFs teleconnector prognostics is eye-popping. It may not help determinism per se, buuut ... if one wanted to get a rare snow in may, THAT would be the layout of choice.

I tell one thing about the Euro run that falters just shy of astounding... The lowest heights anywhere over our quatra-hemispheric scope are between the Delmarva and Cape Cod. The only reason why that is not at the level of astounding is because it's day 10. But jesus I'm willing to cram it on my own hatred for this putrescent f-up weather if that really sets up that way. You'd have to be brain dead not to appreciate that look. wow. The model is flat out trying to engineer a blue bomb in May and it's not the only model doing this either. GGEM gets us there by D7 (almost) and the GFS just needs to cool the column 2 or 3 ...

yup, about one tick away from history there - all fields and considerations

At some point I'm forced to wonder if this doesn't all turn around and really nail eastern N/A with heat. The last 15 consecutive years of this incredible rise in Global temperatures as reported by NASA, has been retarded specifically centered on the region from roughly DC to Labrador compared to most over regions of the planet. In that time span...we've had above normal months.. That's not what we're saying. However, relative to the rates and amounts of change in the warming environment/climate of the planet overall, we've been among a select few other regions that keep getting hammered by off-setting cool values. It's time spans like this, in coming, that's doing it... (so it seems anyway). Truth be told its a noisy subject. Just about every point on the surface of the Earth has had both above and below normal months across the last 180 worth, but it's akin to saying we've had just that many more negatives than anywhere else. That's probably the simplest way to say it. I think Siberia and one or two additional regions also shared in that odd semi-permanent sink.

Yeah, ...12z operational GFS is almost a 2005 redux really. Just need that axis to average closer to WV rather than right over head and we'd be there almost identically. As is though, it's close enough to almost be considered the same thing. This is pretty much how destroying a half month or more in the worst plausible weather there can be on the face of the planet is prescribed. It'll be interesting to see if Kevin is in straight-jacket at the end of D12 Let's hope it is wrong... but, this has been hammered for days in the teleconnectors, and although we can argue those get less correlative at this time of year, you have also take that case by case; there's enough gradient and coherent wave structures lingering around the hemisphere (still) to count 'em, so this may all have merit. GGEM brings snow to the Capital District D7 ...certainly to the elevations -

Ah ...yeeeah, impetus on "mentioned" it ... You were asked, 'who is calling for ...' Answering that question by using anyone's name, together with mentioned it, risks conflating those two ideas and pinning it on someone; when in perspicacity those clearly and obviously don't mean the same thing - but ... we know you do this all the time, ...either deliberately or unwittingly ... and throwing others under the bus ... We're supposed to just laugh it off - okay. Not sure what was said weeks ago ... but at some point over the last week I 'mentioned' the ensuing pattern was symbolic of super-imposing winter under a May sun. Yeah, I suppose taking the synoptic charts as is...there's 850 mb pockets down to -3 C entangled in this trough amplitude, while perhaps episodic spin ups fiddle with f-ing up the weather for everyone that likes spring over the next 10 days... Somewhere in all that the elevations could certainly see grapple and snow.. But it is just as likely that marginal conditions get trumped by the sun and the models are over-doing amplitude, and a host of other things that may and probably will go wrong.

ha! right - you know, i never took the sucker out last autumn - the bedroom one. It just wasn't that cold this lasts winter, and the b-room's on the 2nd floor so the regular home heating trapped enough upstairs. Plus, the unit sits in the window reasonably enough shored up/air tight that a mild winter is fine. Oh it got cold here and there this year, but nothing enough to bother. So long of the short, the debate doesn't count for me. Fwiw, I have used it three times now. Each time it surpassed 80 F so far this year I have needed it at least initially because that same trapping heat phenomenon means that even pedestrian warmth makes that 2nd floor above sleep -

Both the CMC and Euro with whopper -NAO and tappable cold sufficient for historic late season snow... The only problem? Duh duh duh day 10. However, the teleconnectors from the GEFs have really been hitting a truly miserable, craptastic pattern for the first half of May. So... these long range computer day dreams of blue glory aside ... if you are a spring enthusiast, you may want to seek another hobby until further notice. It's been a really solid signal - we'll see how the dailies go down.

Hi res visible imagery is really fascinating ...you can get a clear cookie-cut impression of where the front has set up... Curvilinearly classic, too...showing warm bulge and returned boundary has punched almost to BUF already, while it's BD'ed clear down the Del Marva. Scott's right. The air mass is shallow and the 850 level has no interest in cooling off.. Such that the warm air rides over and there's pulses of elevated instability. You get the impression when looping said satellite that the boundary is already attempting to erode down S... The 12z Euro operation run also looks as though it is trying to punch the warm air back in here tomorrow afternoon. That would be interesting...

Agreed ... I mentioned that earlier ... that the sun is strong enough now to offset the 'undesired' theft of merrier air inside these spring scenarios. That said, ...the sun needs to shine we're presently submerging under it down here. In fact, there's a cluster of warm frontal convection already that's erupted over PA and marched bee-line toward and is entering now, western zones. The lightning detection shows this region is still going on with it... The NAM QPF doesn't seem to reflect this region to well, as it is poised to perhaps sprinkle the region with those elevated positive stroke booms. we'll see...

Albeit tedious for some perhaps ... this really is an interesting combination of meteorological circumstances going on today. In one perspective, there is a +2 (est) SD warm mid level ridge anomaly ballooning over the eastern U.S. through tomorrow. Yet in an excessive contrast to what that would suggest is going on beneath ... we see temperatures struggling to make 55 F at the surface, with DPs in the upper 20s! Heights > mid 570s DM with DPs in the 20s can happen, and in fact, it's not actually that unusual in early to mid spring warm spells. Early season continental return flows of warm air are often moisture challenged because of various reasons in the environment.... However, it's getting toward May and there's early green-up well underway; it is really getting late to see this combination. On hi res visible loops you can also see a diffused BD that is moving SW through the region behind the primary/main baroclinic axis extending W/E through the M/A, as denoted by WPC's surface analysis. It may be too subtle to really pick up but the satellite sort of betrays that 2ndary push. Over particularly eastern New England, you can observer low cloud swaths being immediately eroded back SW because at least for this 12 to 18 hour period underway, the late polar air intrusion is thick enough to scour out from the N/NE. It's a saving grace if your a light sky fan because the NAM cloud machine numbers were suggestion a much murkier vibe for today. So at least the sun will off-set the annoying late season chill. Meanwhile. there is interesting convection bubbling up over N PA. Early low angle sun off the turrets of hose CB towers was really neat to see with Dupage's new super hi resolution. Their region temperature are not too dissimilar to ours ... this is probably overrunning convection, while it atones to the idea that this is a shallow air mass. I bet it's not much more than 1,300 meters of the sounding over an extended sprawl - in other words, the sounding everywhere is probably pretty sloped positively below 4K feet or so. In total, although these observations this morning seem rather extreme ...this is actually typical climate behavior at this time of year. We had a couple days of solid 80 to 85 F weather ...then a cyclone moves N through the MV toward the Lakes. The deep layer flow structure that associated with that, and how it 'buckles' the flow out ahead over eastern Canada, typically does promote the genesis/strengthening of surface high pressure over that region of N/A. This transitive relationship et al forces the farther E extension of the warm front ...or frontal tapestry in general, to sink S ... warm-up gets interrupted whether it's a BD proper or some variation therein. Anyway, mid 70s on machine guidance returns for Tuesday, which is also not unusual. The interruption goes back the other way for 6-12 hours just before said cyclone's main cfropa finally cleans house of it all. Honestly, ...since I have lived in this region of the country I can count on one hand the years I have experienced end to end un-interrupted warm departures in April/May. Dr Colby and I once purely for muse went back across the dailies from April and May, 1976, as they are recorded up at UML. That would have been an amazing experience. There were like four days in a row of 90 + weather ( some days peaked at 96!) over the Merrimack Valley region and throughout NE.... Then, when it broke, ...it didn't event exact revenge like it did in 1998, by snowing within a week... It went back to mid 70s...and other than one or two brief stints of mid 50s ...as far as we could find the majority of days through May that year were well above normal.

this happens in my place too... The threshold appears to be right around 80 F. Anything there or exceeding and the heat pools upstairs trapped there. By the time the evening calls for escaping the day ...it may be 90 up there while it's 68 in the living room. So I too ran the AC -

wow that could be a humdinger on the Euro for the eastern Lakes

yeah... I was talking to some other Mets elsewhere about this very same thing. It's actually flipped aggressively compared to the complexion of the last several springs perhaps -. This is also a winter-like look the GFS is trying and clawing and scraping unrelentingly to set up; you can almost sense it's raging stubborn battle against seasonal change and the sun ongoing in each successive cycle of that model. And this is sort of been more than less endemic to the CMC and Euro, too. Even when we have big bulging potentially warm ridges, the engineer weird ways to slice cold air under the ridge some 1,000 miles or more aggressive than even climatology for that sort of thing... and they end right too! Details aside, at this point we have a winter time pattern super-imposed under a May sun in the blend of the runs .. Weend up with 50s and early 60s with wet days followed by tinge frosts clear mornings... just to keep the gardening season on stand-by indefinitely, just to smack faces of those with visions of summer - ha. I'm also wonder what the summer pattern/default look will be or how this will evolve into one... Sometimes, these April looks have a way of being genetic descending and you end up with a relaxed version or some variation of the whatever plagues you in mid spring. Wondering if end up with one of those Chicago death heat years while we're jammed in an eternal NW flow. Who knows -

right - that too... The lowering grandient means the "pattern" modulation its self is faster... I thinking that as quick as the NAO domain can vary inside of a month, it may even have gradient rate-of-change in May, which makes the correlation tuff.. I just i dunno i think I still don't feel comfortable thinking -NAO in May is completely useless - not that anyone said it is of course. Oh wait -

it's probably a threshold argument ...as an afterthought. Most NAOs don't plummet to say, -4 SD... that/those are rare by definition of that number. Combining that with shrinking R-numbers...it makes sense that -1 is less effectual at modulating the temperature in May than it would be in January - duh. But... I'd argue that if we get the index to a threshold of extremeness the flow probably does get overwhelmed and modulation ensues. ...think of it as .. all -2 and softer are canceled out of correlation, which is the bell curve mass of them all. But, the few that may go to -3 and -4 do; it's a matter of not happening enough to show up in those smoothed linear products.

The 1977 snow event was immediately preceded by a west based NAO and if one wants to they can track both the impulse and attending cold 850 plume right back to a conveyor/source that is dictated by the curvilinear flow around said high latitude blocking.. Now, granted ...that's an extreme case... However, the data/application in general for that product ( I don't believe; but could certainly be wrong) above does not consider the NAO into quadrature - which means... that it's a conditional correlation depending on the specifics like you mentioned. None of which ( I don't believe; but could certainly be wrong) Kevin has in mind when he avers blanket statements like he usually does -

Well now ... this is all one helluva convincing piece of sophistry; let's go with this, gang!

I was actually thinking we may not have seen the last snow in the elevations up N... the oper. GFS plumbs a 530 DM height core over Buff by D9 and that drifting E would pelt PF with grappies over to 'chutes. Remember 1977 folks? Oh wait - ... Obviously all that's lower probability but it's not impossible. I'd love to see Kevin in Vegas betting black-jack odds based upon his same analytic skills with atmospheric indexes... I wonder how long he holds onto that sweet estate up on the hill in CT in that scene -heh

This is not true. jesus My "theory" is that Kevin must be part of the macro-social engineering project/experiment amid present day western cultural society's to get belief systems adhered to this whole "alternative facts" phenomenon.