Typhoon Tip

agreed...

Well.. than I hope my next GF's name is 'stratosphere'

Hmm..several observations re that bold text. 1 .. For anyone of this particular pre-occupation and engagement the words "hot" and "girlfriend" being used in the same turn of phrase - is akin to the vin diagram needed to decode one of my synoptic overviews prior to a pattern change ... 2 .. And, that may be bargaining in itself, as though leveling that suggestion at us gives hope those two facets could ever be collocated in time ... ? 2 .. why have a 'hot' girlfriend? ...beyond the carnal desire for one, that is... It's far more likely and healthy, both physically and spiritually... to find a committed woman/man ( depending on how one identifies themself) in the aggregate population... One's that are more homely, vaguely tolerable to look at, and can even laugh... they stay compared to glib individuals that have been enabled by looks and therefore never really learned humility for their journeys to date. That's why those are "ex" and "hot" in the same turn of phrase - that was the problem in the first place. Those types often have oddly working internal appraisal compasses - if at all - pointing more inwards, and thus don't so readily recognize or appreciate true beauty in another individual .. Oh they say they do, if they've learned societal conventions and stop short of allowing their placated existence from turning them into sociopaths.. But, you're likely to fare better odds with a 7/10 lady/dude with her/his head screwed on straight any day over 9.2 with her/his head up some kind of Princess/Prince complexed lagging developmental ass ..any day.

See I thought/was under the false impression the 00z Euro had the boundary N of this... If this is the boundary's mean position 12z ... there is nothing happening and this thread should be evaporated, unceremoniously as though a personal attack on convection enthusiasts to really nail the p.o.s.ness of this pattern home.. LOL

Ladies and gentlemen... this is what we in Psycho-babble refer to as "bargaining" - ...it's a self-soothing tactical alternative in plausibility that is typically created to avoid having to face an inevitable painful reality... Using this as a predictive model, the subject will like experience a 'melt-down' as the next phase along the total acceptance of butt-bang arc to full recovery -

It's also possible ... yeah, that the NAM is over doing it with that. I have actually seen the NAM be too aggressive with BD too - it's just not typically the case. Most often, even the higher resolution runs will end up needing to correct SW ... So, if it is ideal 72 F with pancake feathery CU Golf weather where once stood a mighty enhanced wording...while there is far distant anvil wall on the absolute S/SW horizons during baseball hail at Trenton NJ don't be surprised.

that's more like it! When the universe ages to it's termination and ceases to exist... SPC will still be trying to place warm fronts too far NE into this sort of synoptic set up -

Now watch...just because I mentioned that stuff about the geo-morphology and forcing of near earth surface synoptic weather phenomenon ...limiting warm frontal intrusion ...the 12z NAM will go ahead punch the f'er to Grey Maine... ha

in a bushman's vision ...that's why though. This is anomalous air mass for seasonal change... It's not even a preview ( 'shot across the bow') really ...strikes me as a fluke. I like shot across the bow, breaking back air masses to be anchored in a definitive pattern modulation... This is a weird thing that I think is related to another popsicle headache... Anyway, 18 hours later summer tries to surge back, and homage to the idea that it's still there... And that's a problem ...when you have still active moisture draining off foliage and evaporation of soil moisture content in the midwest and Lakes regions .. mixing with tumbling 17+C 850 mb temperatures ready to surge right back in, this unusualness of the severe set up for this time of year...is sort of indicative of this 18 to 24 hour fluke air mass... Correct one way, snap back - It's really difficult up our way too...because our topography/geographical feed backs offer more forcing that stall or even reverse warm fronts. Basically, because the land falls out in elevation from underneath the troposphere when east of NY/VT/NH. Vectors lifting over the western hills/mountains and general higher elevation, sets up a kind of "invisible" counter-vector that rolls the atmosphere and tacks back W-S at lower levels east of said axis... There's a forcing back SW... at all time below 800 or so mb. This is why BDs seem to get pulled back down the coast...it's more than just the mass discontinuity ...That's the start, but that motion of air then gets a kick-back from that tacked vector and then the boundary over achieves... it's why in late April, a common almost fixture of fronts stalled in the area is that fronts align smartly due E until about Albany, then curvilinearly descend SE and wrap around NE and even go back N over the water E of Cape Cod... It's that rolling motion that retarding. It's also why we "tuck" in the winter and enjoy ice storms while PF in N. VT is 52 F at mid slope.

And Saturday looks really bad to me on the 00z Euro... In fact, the behavior of the pressure pattern and QPF matches climo typology for tornadic events over eastern NY the upper MA and interior SNE ... with a pretty clearly define morning straif of elevated convection along a warm front strongly supported by synoptic detailing, giving way to warm sector intrusion to lower VT/NH ... and along the residual warm frontal axis arcing into upstate NY there are very intense convective nodes exploding in the model resolution of what happens next... Those are super cells folks - no question given the W 70-90 kt 500 mb flow running collocated overtop a sun steamed, fresh theta-e transported low level thermal ridge ( 850s 20 C CT over SE Massachusetts!), and heights tending to fall overtop from west to east across the area between 18z and 00z Sunday... The key is.. warm intrusion and fresh falls of BL rains near 12z clears out and this creates a pal of SB CAPE anomaly in the area...if we go back and look at the daily behavior prior to '89, Monson 2010, even ORH '53 ...and the Mohawk Trail MCS June 10 '87 ...these are all fine examples of what to look for and were remarkably similar with dawn rumble rains that peeled away and sun-soared to mid 80s/72 blue-tinted bath water hillsides ... ensuing jet mechanics nosing in mid day from the west... That's Saturday incarnate - I mean Oklahomans might feel jealous looking at these general synoptic parameters. Devil's in the details with convection though ...so, this is just what I've gleaned off Pivotal - there may be distractions I'm not seeing or are unaware therein but ... it's like Thursday and Friday have their intrigue, but Saturday was painted with unique convergence of parameters constructing a convective appeal on a guidance that is very tough to beat at time ranges < 120 hours. I would change the title to three days of potential and just encapsulate the whole saga -

Ha ha yeah this isn’t the panhandle of Texas from late April to early June when you have 45 straight days of visible crispy super cells rollin under the tropopause

All three days Thursday through Saturday look troublesome or certainly could turn out that way with that front oscillating in the area ... accentuated helictites long it with unusual thermal gradient for this time of the year either side is intriguing. Seems that EOF1swarm idea had shifted more to Saturday with organized cyclone mechanics in the area but the boundary itself could be active for a couple days before that ...wherever ultimately sets up

Can't say I disagree with this notification effort thru yesterday's 12z... 00z, not so much in the Euro, but the GFS hangs on a bit... But In the other thread, I mentioned a couple days ago that D5/6 looked like an "EOF1 bomb" potential for the upper MA to NE states... These baser kinematic structures you're honing in on were evidence back then and as of yesterday - by then D3 ... Maybe like a last season 'threat hurrah' as the summer closes the books and we'll see if this new-ish complexion toward seasonal migration that the operational Euro GFS suddenly paint has legs... Could be a rush job - I think the GFS 528 dm double noded height core amid a continental scoped, sub polar vortex over JB is a bit hard to cough down in late August/early Sept... but, I also covet some personal "science fiction" plausibilities as to why the model is doing that, and it is rooted in evidence spanning the last 6 years... Namely, we've been "continental folding" at transition seasons with unusual proficiency at the books ends of winter. That's John- labeling ...there's no actual identity of that in Meteorological/climate vernacular ...but, I call it that ...it's like super synoptic scaled "Kelvin-Helmholtz" effect. We have velocity surpluses in the mid and upper tropospheric ambience that is tending to kick in very early in transition season, and... lagging unsually long on the way out. The cause is the expanding HC...or in the case of Autumn, the HC expansion as a persistence on-going perpetuated state, is triggering gradient to increase very quickly as the sun's integrate insolation across the hemisphere begins to dim toward the ends of August and particularly...during Sep/Oct ... This increased gradient is directly proportional to the surplus velocity. But why that is important is, the velocity of the jet is "folding" over the top mass of the R-wave fields, and this is increasing/enhancing trough node tendencies earlier in the year of eastern/southern Canada, and also... in May's ... This 'plausibility' is why we have since 2000 experience either synoptic scaled snow chances, or, ... packing pellet virga exploded CU cold waves in Octobers and May some 1/2 if not 2/3rds of the last 20 years worth of transition seasons ...either end. In between? ...DJF/early M .... that HC stuff impinges a whole 'nother issue with raging jet velocities so extreme that it forcing a morphology of precipitation event structures. Anyway, this may seem to have nothing to do with Thursday at this point ...but, it does in the sense that the mechanics are perhaps being exaggerated over what is normal up our way...as these gradient rich events transpire through lingering seasonal warmth and dps... Outside the box thinking a little - In any case, the pattern looks in the 00z run by the Euro to have moved to more a NW flow with some positive shearing ...maybe more whisky line or even MCS-y

https://phys.org/news/2020-07-canadian-ice-caps-scientific.html

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Nah... I was referencing a prior context - that statement you are responding to is not that context. The prior context did thematically portray Gaia as some sort of agent of intelligence that was strategizing the demise of Humanity - almost as a hand-throwing acquiescence to the notion that Humanity cannot be reasoned with, so blind extermination is the only recourse... Muah hahaha. Something along those lines was implicit - That would be fodder for science fiction/fantasy. But Gaia "self- regulating" - I'm not sure I agree with that either. I've heard other's sort of crutch on Gaia in principle, like it'll "protect" and "save" Earth from us... Mmm. No. It's not regulating shit when there's a mass-extinction already underway. I understand the modern definition contains that terminology, self-regulation, but that is being conflated with self-protecting. Even Gaia theory would have its break point... Think of it this way ( logically ): if the organic life that is supposed to be working WITH the inorganic Earth to produce a synergy-related positive feed-back that supports life, what does it mean if the life part of that formula ceases to exist? No Gaia, that's what - It's failing is what that is. And just like all the major mass-extinction events, regardless of whether they are causally related to geology, extra-terrestrial bombardment, or ... fascinatingly, the biology of the planet its self, these effectively wiped out their "Gaias" in lieu of new Gaias. As far as Gaia its self... upon deeper reflection ... I find it just as equatable to processes of ecological-balance. There are direct interdependent requirements of life within any given domain, and that domain then has indirect but still important dependencies upon adjacent ecology(s). Gaia really just a whimsical way of artfully describing the same thing in a poetic refrain of awe and wonder. But it's no different than ecology processes of various life components working unwittingly in support of one another.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ocean-ice-free-year.html

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/14/europe/veneto-council-climate-change-floods-trnd-intl-scli/index.html

No .. I don't think that's cynical at all. I think that's a fair observation. Truth is, there is a reason these early cold snaps are becoming more common year to year. And, guess what? It's more than merely plausible. It has to do with the Pacific thermal ridge/bulge, combined with a permanent geographical circumstance that relates to the orientation of the N/American continent with respect to the west-to-east prevailing winds. Both cause ..or favor, NW flow in western Canada without the help of one another, as a rest/base-line tendency. The rest state of the Perennial North American Pattern features a mountain bulge, a flat ridge, the axis of which is collocated roughly with the Rockies cordillera ( Canada to Mexico).. Immediately down wind of this mean ridge there is a flattening out of the flow that is arguable a coupled trough. That is the geographically induced circulation mode. In present era of Pacific thermal surplus - particularly as we near the autumn and entry times to the cold season - that bulge combines with the ever present geographically induced ridge; superimposition over one another sort of "synergistically" enhances NW flows over western North America. That constructive wave interference than lends to tapping cold earlier and delivering it south toward N/A middle latitudes. As far as Gaia, that was more for science-fiction? A thought experiment. Muse out loud if you will. Though it's an intriguing premise for a book, don't you think? You know what it really hearkens to? I hearkens to the crashing airliner narrative, about how the moment of the accident is actually the end result of a series of events set into motion ... sometimes years in advance as forensics eventually piece together. It's just that with so many moving parts in the machinery of this planets biosphere and all the dependencies and delicate bandwidths of adaptation that need to remain stable, it gets to be so complex that its easier to just refer to it as Gaia. But, the geographic layout of our planetary interface with the prevailing N.H.wind ... causing slightly cooler variance over N/A as far as the GW we experience here, was like the plain wreck... That part of it formulated 10,000,000 years ago. Or if you really want to get outre with it, maybe Gaia set all this up back then.