Typhoon Tip

I'm not sure I'm even seeing anything all that unusual this point moving forward anyway. There seems to be some lens tinting to see things more dire than they really are, coming from the various indicators and models and so forth. "Seasonally cool" has it's anomalous place and it doesn't mean earth shattering misery..

anyway ... it's just my opinion but the Euro takes the western book-end of the vestigial geopotential weakness over SE-S Canada and BOOM! out of no where and deriving the momentum/mechanics from no apparent source manages to close off and deepen it some -3 SD as it presses toward Ohio from D5 into D6... Nope. Not happening. That's a pretty clear incarnation of the Euro's old bias around SE Canada and the NE U.S., to amp troughs too deeply - a bias that imho was never completely eradicated across upgrades, and it is times like these that betray it for that subtle tendency. My guess is that anomaly should correct shallower in future guidance. \ Doesn't mean the weather will be 'summery' ...but I suggest that over all look is over cooked.

I'd say that is a fair assessment with all four major climate sites destined to pull a solid negative May outta their azzes ... which actually, should be underscored because much to the nay-sayer chagrins, it is harder now than ever before to rack up a negative month. But, I've been beating multiple drums in that regard and it seems to fail any discussion start so I won't bother - ha! the life and times amid a weird winter season co-dependency support group. J/k. ... The longer range mass signals have been hitting at a warm June but I suspect like is usually the case... a visceral pattern change is out there and we'll have to be dinking around with models putting it off for a few -

That's what I was thinking.. I mean at some point you gotta wonder if the troposphere can't take it just flips over - jesus christ what weird thing has become... It's like engineering cold pattern.

you can see the peel off/exposure is indeed leaving the low layer behind. It roughly sets Springfield to Orange Mass... about that line... east of there is bright ceilings where the U/A peeled away... We just have that extra momentum requirement in this basin that exists east of the mountains and west of the Ocean - more evidence to really support the notion of a hybrid land/sea climate over this peninsula they call SNE. if memory serves... Walt Drag once discussed a S at 22 kts rule at 850 for getting that molasses to move/mix out, but I'm not sure if he was talking about CAD or this sort of thing.

Presently there is a north south oriented clearing line that is pretty sharp; mid and u/a/ layers discontinue along that line as it rapidly advances ENE out of eastern NY/PA. The question is, does the schit underneath peel away with it - or does it strand behind. it will be an interestingly nerdy test watching over the next couple three hours. NAM really is night to day tomorrow on this 12z run... Has Logan at 22 C at 980 mb with west wind, and zippo zero zilch cloud in a warm sector... so the 2-meter is probably about 82 F

I've seen this sort of air mass 'survive' multiple synoptic roll-overs, too - seriously. It's like Lake Cameroon puffing out C02 that clings to the ground..., the change/front came through but because it was ineffective at scouring the 'sludge' trapped east of the topography out west, and west of the virtual oceanic walled off boundary layer to the east, the front and new air more quite apropos ... glided/rippled right over the top and left it beneath. Yesterday kinda sorta did that... The day's vis loop, one could clearly see it was like the atmospheric traffic was sliding over the top of a solid milky layer ...somewhere beneath which was a forsaken civility...

Kevin is engaging in the text-book Psycho babble act of 'projecting' - what is really going on is what HE feels about this... It involves mapping undesirable feelings or emotions onto someone else, rather than admitting to or dealing with the unwanted feelings himself. ... We get it... it sucks. We only commiserate as we suffer along side of you. There is no need to invent your straw-people targets of resentment because in reality...they don't exist in here. Satellite presently shows some striated bands of thinning and splitting along the back ~ one half of this I-95 corridor cloud swatch plaguing the MA to Maine. This thing has truly been, in the minimum, giving an affectation of extraordinary resistance to change. Two night's ago a stealthy BD either came through, or, up and formulated already SW of the area; behind which the air mass then preceded to bank up against the elevation tract that extends SSW-NNE west of the EC coastal plain. That air mass it transported and slammed up against the damming effectiveness of the higher elevations to the west is of a particularly pernicious variety - saturated, cold, dense heavy Labrodor sludge. What's really missing in this air mass? Figuratively would be floating airborne ice-bergs! Oh it's... relatively mild compared to say... a BD air mass in late March or April... But, I recall: Dr. Colby and I once noted when I was a undergrad that saturated BD air masses are more resistant to mixing out than dry ones...well, case in point - Anyway, there is some chance that thinning cast will let some pall-dimmed sun in during the day, and perhaps realize some of those 70 F MOS numbers. Tomorrow looks like the real house cleaner tho. Dry air mass is forced down slope and really blast this schit out of here like a raid on a speak-easy. And, with CAA lagged that flow and high sun is an utterly different sensible universe. That's the one saving grace about our predicament of latitude and longitude on this Planet; by that geographical circumstance, we are favored to get abrupt corrections that eradicate unwanted plagues like this. We'll see how it works but the NAM has been doing pretty well lately with it's RH fields and the verifying ceilings, and it really plummets the cloud level RH's to < 50 % toward dawn so we'll probably clear out above gossamer low fog/strata... A humid morning that glows pale yellow above of said mist. By 10 am, everyone is under an insolation tsunamis with temps running toward 80 mid day. In the longer range, ...the GEFs as of yesterday were signaling some sort of paradigm shift but ... they did that three weeks ago too. We did get 5 days of warm departures, but it was like the very atmosphere its self just couldn't wait to get us right back to winter transposed over summer. Frustrating for warm enthusiasts, I know.

it's a good thing we haven't had to deal with anything like this so for this failed warm season...

turn on the Red Sox ... says it all.. It's like 80 in that stadium in Chicago ... then you look out the window. This is an endemic new england climate problem.

You know ... there's something else about this New England...particularly eastern New England. When cyclones with their associated tapestry of fronts go through we usually/routinely have anomalous air mass variance over the standard Norwegian cyclone model. In that model, the lows have three sectors... The front side is cool, then there is a barotropic region/warm sector equatorward of the warm front, then there is a the cold region west of the cold/occluded boundary. But in the spring, we typically find the coldest air in the front left quadrant above the warm front.. Systems sort of symbolically act like warm fronts in total... The warm front its self is...pretty much futile ... such that the warmest sensible air in the translation of the entire system tends to be behind the cold fronts. This system is exactly like that... We end up with 20 to 25 C in a realm of LIs down to -1 or -2 regionally mid week, having passed through these cool/occluded boundaries.

Meh... there's a personal preference for every kind of perceptible weather. It's simply a matter of a numbers game, finding who likes what ... And yes, there are even a few of those that like this poop; they may be fewer in numbers than those that like 78/49 with ample sunshine, sure. There are rare gray, and then more common blue birds. There are even those red robins that prefer upper 90s and stifling torridity. Then, there is that odd co-dependent upon cryo times of the year folk with that whole snow baggage that "seem" to actually secretly covet days like this. Not so much because they "like" this weather (they actually probably hate it), but because it's like ..some kind of a moral victory that they don't have to deal with the reality of a nice day in summer. Those lurk in here too - Either way, ...I just took a trip around the entire Nation using NWS's EDD web-resource and as far as I can tell, the coastal region of D.E.M southward through Boston and the western 'burbs are the coldest, cloudiest, wettest out of all officials spanning the contiguous US. The wind at Logan is NE and it's SE up near Rockland on the Maine coast, sort of like maximizing each point along the way's ability to be specifically Labrador assaulted... pretty remarkable really. I'm kind of if Brian's camp when he intimated earlier that the hot spell last week actually stole a cold trophy month. Too bad. We don't even get to write home about this... we've had historic snow down to 1,500 foot elevations this month and all that plus this misery get criminally hidden by one warm up? It's like personalized torment on multiple target observers.. Hahaha! that's awesome. Seriously though, warm spell or not... I get a distinct impression that when NASA comes out with it on June 15th that May was the hottest blah blah blah since records began on Earth, yet again ..one of the only blue regions of relative cool will once again show up over NE, SE Canada and the Martimes. Such an interesting persistence with that. It's survived pattern distinctions of variety ... and years..... spanning more than a decade, and we keep owning that distinction some 80 to 90 % of the months.

as expected that band of cloud has yielded to the mixing forced by diabatic heating... eastern shore zones already being afflicted by the inevitable flip onshore. but it's also scouring out the overhead down to pure blue so it's prolly a bit of a trade off there. 66 F routine now both at NWS and back yard therms out here in the interior as of noon so 70 seems a pretty solid achievable goal - unless that breeze boundary gains mass and rolls ...could do that.. we'll see. I wasn't involved in the pig pile on Kevin thing but just as a spectator to that sport I'd say the game may end up tied there... heh

Fwiw .. the 12z NAM seems more realistic relative to climo for eastern New England for tomorrow ...and the rest of today for that matter. Has Logan's T1 in the FRH grid to 14 C the rest of the way today, with lowered critical cloud height RH even further on that N to NNW feeble flow underneath (kadabatic drying). I think you'll find that after a brief to perhaps 3 hour interlude of some interfering pancake cloud types that the lower troposphere cycle's the moisture out and some additional clearing evolves over the course of the afternoon. Anyway, add 7 or 8 to that T1 out near Framingham up to Nashua for T1 ..then the lower slope to the 2 meter and there's you 71. It's probably going to be bump job and it will otherwise spend more time around 68. But that's all a significant improvement over the NAMs recent bs schititude in the matter. Tomorrow the same sort of logic applies...although, the wind is then feebly S... That could take RI and SE zones out of the 70 club for obvious reason but up near Rt 2 it's probably 75 proper. Real wet run for Monday though. Interesting to see the globals on that. Funny, three months ago we were still getting that heads up from the drought survey, now eradicated, soon to be surplus?

oh, i see - there's some battle with Kevin going on - ha! What's new. Okay, I'll bow out on that...

admittedly I didn't look at the 00z NAM soundings but the FRH grid was pretty lousy for eastern Mass and that's already set sail ...

KFIT bounced to 63 already.. (talking relative to expectation there...).. meanwhile, the pancaking over southwest Worcester up to Orange and down to Springfiled and so forth has them capped at 55'ish. it's not totally pancake material there...appears there was some residual "spoke" coming around the western arc of that pesky ocean gyre that's slowly pulling east... contributing to a band. the pancake is around the edges. haha, have i beating this horse enough with the nerd stick yet ?

I think the NAM has been routinely too pessimistic for these two days, today and tomorrow. It has NNW offshore component, under 700 mb RH at or < then 50% at times today, with 850 mbs around +7 C give or take one or two, not a month before the hottest sun of the year, and has been arguing for a surface temperature of only 13 to 15 C over eastern New England?! That seems a pit excessive to me. Those initial conditions would typically yield 72 or 74 or so for today. However, as the satellite presently shows...pancake CU is spreading pretty liberally.. The mid and upper ceilings allows early morning insolution to come in strong; it's interesting how that works. For a couple hours you get a kind of 'split sounding', with warming in the decoupled cool low level destablizing at a shallow layer, then the inversion above, ..then free air. But the stuff below the inversion ... and the initial surface heating is collection moisture (to which we have in the abundance at llvs) and spreading that strata CU near the top. What might happen, though is cyclic. We may cloud over for couple three hours, then clear up again mid afternoon as that whole process is indicative of 'mixing out'.. I'm thinking that is possible because even the more pessimistic NAM has critical cloud height levels less than 70 %, with the wind staying 350 or so degrees. Ie.,the sun has free reign of power. Either way, the NAM really looks too pessimistic for Sunday... I think that ALB type of profile ends up pretty compressed E across the area... It may be only 13 C at T1 in Downtown B-town in that look. Monday there appears to be a backdoor .. the model may actually be right about that day. The water is still hypothermic to any wayward air mass over the top and the Euro's nosing the PP bulged SW across the area is pretty good indication that our unique topographic circumstance which literally draws and strands that sort of cold Atlantic vomit onto the land would quite easily have a field day out of that look.

that's actually been going on for three or four years really ... There's been times when it was less so - and we've warmed. but by and large we have been in a weird kind of n-stream domination for multiple years. the big super cold midwest then our feb and the summers that never quite got as hot as anywhere else were all part of that.

right ... cold too - the phenomenon of temperature departures sufficient to incur damages of any multiple recognized (perhaps a scientifically derived thresholds), are 'wave' events that should be construed in the same recognition manifold as other natural disasters. but... wait! you can't 'see' air, so it's not a real monster - hahaha

Perception is politics ... The specter of a tornado, or a hurricane, flood and earthquakes ...dogs and cats cuddling together ... you're right in that Humans don't typically respond well to non-perceived threats like those they cannot actually visibly see. This is the crisis of information heeding- related to GW (for example)... GW is not a coiled up menacing black tube of immense sucking cloud power carving a canal through a farmstead out in the Plains. It's an abstraction... just like Vesuvius was to the Pompeians ..oh, they new it was a volcano. Much in the same way an idiot nay-sayer knows that the climate varies from year to year... But, the equivalence in the form of ecological disaster, sea level rise, agricultural failure, and deadly pathogenic results of GW ...all culminating in causing geopolitical destablization to the brink of WWIII ...triggering an evolutionary scaled population correction - it is all really just a macrocosm paradigm of the same God saying, seeee - ya shoulda listened to the warning signs ya dumb f*cks. anyway, heat is a bit of an abstraction in that same way. It does take a toll over time, and is a bit of a silent killer. Although, I'd argue that sudden pulsed onset of a hot afternoon can take a Baseball game or a construction site by surprise and be pretty dangerous too. I read about the amazing hot summer in the 1936, where just about every state in the contiguous U.S. (save NE, what's new) set their all-time state hottest summer. Although even here...most places set high temperature records at some point or the other. It was truly magical if you like that sort of thing... Some records have probably fallen since... but, there was one epic heat wave that stress comprehension in that summer...something like a 13 day bender that had nights at 85 in Minneapolis St Paul and days between 100 and 115 the whole way. I just wonder, given to the climate curve and differences, should that same patterning/summer persistence set in now, if it would be even worse.

I assume you're 'good' is in deference to that last paragraph? well - of course... the operational runs went out of their way to now morph the deep extended toward those rising heights I hinted about. I mean, it was there in prior and that's why I intimated the first week of June, but it looks a little more coherent now... It's possible we sans the present tendency for keep plumbing gyres down into the OV region in about a week to tend days...(probably closer to ten+). Frankly I think New England, SE Canada and the Maritimes in general have dodged the GW bullet more times than not over the last 15 years. That is outright notable in NASA yearly (state of the climate) address. Their graphical layout of the anomaly distribution (temperature) ...the vast majority of years shows a region of relative cool node either over us, or close enough to assume we have been tainted by cooler results (again...that's relative to all). It may in fact have been warmer than normal in that time span, but, not AS warm as it could have been in keeping with just about everywhere else.. Anyway, I wonder when it comes home to roost and we get a kind of summer to remember heat wise. GW aside, heat is a fascination for me (not that anyone asked...). It's disrespected (sort of), in how it is not recognized as in the big four for natural disasters, when in reality heat related casualties afflicts just as many people globally as does flood, blizzards, tornadoes and hurricanes. Heat should be added to that... and, there are clear markers and signals, and structures, in the atmosphere that contribute/ point out when heat vs big heat may afflict a region. Example, I've seen big ridges over eastern N/A not be quite as hot. The attending thickness is "gappy" wrt the heights. Contrasting, a similar height bulge may have a Sonoron airmass origin rattling around inside and hell halth no fury like temps up to 102 !

I'm impressed at the winter-like complexion of the RGEM's overall evolution with this coastal. It's classic in that guidance, really.. Right down to the secondary/Miller-B back bulged CCB head it blossoms over the region just after the primary fills... Classic, just happens to be rain. But that's an impressive pp anomaly for the end of May there at 990 over Boston Light like that. In fact...just misses the spring tide scheduled for the 25th. We had a decent heat wave (or near so) with some records to boot,... now I don't see any hope for higher heat in any the available Global operational models... The teleconnectors are getting ever less correlative at this time of year going forward but there is some perhaps vestige there to a warm look heading into the first week of June...later on. The operationals seem to want to bite pretty hard into the +PNA's drive on the +PNAP flow structure - which is interesting, because between that particular index and the NAO's rising index, climo would have heights rising over eastern middle latitudes but we don't see the operationals very interested in doing that.

Really - ...my experience is precisely the opposite. Outside short range, model physics "seem" to end up in an over-abundant state of clouds (and related precipitation), from roughly April 15 right through to the end of August. My best surmise is that the models poorly modulate thermodynamics with diurnal heating and issue that seems more endemic beyond 60 to 72 hours in the Globals. I've seen countless cut-offs from late April onward, that even had coastals with closed-off isobaric patterning replete with strata rains ...and what ended up verifying was busted/BRK altostrata and cirrus nebular. Some do go ahead and pollute the sensible weather down to misery, sure... but this time of year has the best odds for aspects to correct better in nearer terms. The difference appears (again) to be the sun's normalizing/homogenizing effects on the lower troposphere. When a system with what looks like strong mid level mechanics whirls into and over a region where the sun has normalized the baroclinic gradients, you end up with models busting to pessimistic. Sometimes though we get things to time right and said whirl happens into a region with fresher llv gradients and then the we'll end up with a more fully vertical integrated system.

Even though ... it would not surprise me if conditions turned out fairer relative to the modeled characteristics for the Memorial Day weekend. It's not unusual from mid April onward into summer, to verify better compared to the complexion of any given middle and extended range. Just by experience alone ... these troughs tend to be 'overly forcing' the two main/ major sensible aspects of the weather; those being ... temperature, sky coverage. You will tend to be, too cool, because (related) the sky is overly pessimistic and that's not interpretive - the models seem to actually physically assess those parameters too bleakly. I've often wonder why that is. It's like you see a trough plumb down through the lakes and take a parabolic trajectory prior to ~ April, and that would undoubtedly herald a day or two minimum of less than fair conditions. But from mid spring on, you're just as likely to end up with partly to mostly cloudy, with at least some splashes of sun here and there/intervals. Temperatures thus are often actually more like pleasantly kept from being too high if anything. Meanwhile, the trough ..even containing a closed surface may merely turn out to whirl pretty harmlessly overhead ... passing on by without having caused the 48 F in drilling ENE breezes and misty rains originally designed. Sometimes the latter does happen, though - duh, of course. But, it seems in terms of "correctability" .. this time of year offers at least more in the way of potential at all times when peering out beyond D 4 or 5s in any respective outlook. I think it's the sun simply ..really. It's a powerful modulating force. Every day of greater than 50 % insolation takes a toll on the thickness medium everywhere ..and that has to get into the initialization of the grids over successes runs. Modeling of the atmosphere is an integral of thermodynamic and fluid mechanical physics in time ...so, quite intuitively if we modulate the cold (and warm) side of the thickness medium, the rest follows... My hunch is that cloud production (albedo effect) may be related to that perceived error. ... And, it's not really a glaring example of error, either. It's almost like there's a 15 to 30% improvement coefficient out there in time as hypothetical.