Typhoon Tip

heh.... just so long as 'as we thought' includes the high confidence chillier than normal annoying not install weather that will set in for most of this week, first

Seems the recent trends in guidance is to reduce the magnitude of the cold anomaly, both in duration and extent. Also, the structure/synoptic evolution of the flow has changed, too. It's more elongated and both the Euro and GFS now keeping the core heights N of our latitude, albeit narrowly - still quite a bit different than taking episodic retrograde mid and upper level -2 or -3 SD height cores underneath Long Island ... for the snow part of those previous "hints" we needed that to work out. My hat-tipped thinking is that by the 20th of May we may blast into summer - or at least...sans these "blue contoured" thickness plumes ...probably until next October. The usual caveats of the extended apply ... but beyond the D5-7 range, the GFS with a huge 570 dm thickness air mass sprawling the eastern half of the conus clear to the 40th parallel and knocking on the door of New Englad. -PNAP too with eastern ridging. Euro doesn't go out that far for the freebie disadvantaged poor class of lowly dreamy-eyed provincials but... knowing how things typically work you can tell it's on the verge of something similar. Tele's really should be about useless given 'normalcy' by mid May ...so we may be on our own with assessing longer term pattern tendencies - Fwiw, presently the GEFs derivatives are flat lining the PNA within the next couple few days...and the NAO domain is too by the end of this next week... So it the "pattern" change suggested above could be over-compensating ... Bottom line, there's hope that we won't have to trash the whole month!

Not sure on the PM thing... I don't normally use that feature in recent years on this forum.. There may have been tech changes and so forth with the interface that I am unfamiliar. It's really about inheriting previous user-ship into a completely different web/social media outlet, to which I am apart. So...not sure what to tell you on the PM. Thanks on the DG circuitry but...honestly, why? I mean... I have a circle of bros and we play from time to time but we're all 30s and 40s year-olds with families and lives at this point; we don't get out that often anymore, and it's not really devoted hobby really. It's a fun activity/sport, sure. More power to DGers in CT though!

Tele's from the GEF camp actually signal SOMEthing different sets in by the 20th, too -

heh, this 18z run's a lot different in the late middle/extended ranges... Yar, it gets chilly D3.5 through 7 but after that, the previous look is shattered significantly ... with a few days actually quite passable. Could it be? the dodging of the bullet - Too early to tell ..but, the run even tries to throw up the season's first heat dome in the nation's midriff states out there around 9+

I don't know what the GFS' deal is. That model really tries one's ability to think that thing isn't deliberately engineered to show the ****tiest solution imaginable relative to consensus. I noticed that all goddamn winter and it's doing it now the other direction heading into summer. I don't know how NCEP pulled that off... If you want it to snow, that model always shows the least. If you want it to be warm, it's always the coldest. It's like no matter what, it's always modeling the opposite of what you want - period. Somewhere in there there's a f'n afterthought of atmospheric dynamics. Jeezus H - What does what you want have to do with atmospheric dynamics?! Yet, NCEP apparently thinks that so long as they put out something disappointing they score better with the product spectrum?? Here's my theory: ...they have Russian spies embedded in the forums of the weather world, ...pinging back the tenor of the consensus desire to NCEP, and they have all these coefficient butt-bang variables sprinkled about their Navier-Stokes thermal and fluid dynamical equations - and it's just a matter of setting the bang and running the models. Then I realized wait... those are 240 through 350 hour model charts - heh...

well... I was thinking about Hershey but I wasn't sure how I was supposed to make the leap from Rhea to that - I suppose just looking at the weather charts should have lent a clue, huh - lol

dude I'm tryin' - don't say anything ...I wanna figure this out

I have to admit ... no idea what is meant by a "wheel of rhea" Rhea is a type bird? but ...other than that... interesting. anywho, I saw improvements over night in the longevity and depth of the trough/cut-off and attending cold... May be too early to establish as real trends, but ...let's keep in mind that the whole bag is really stressing climo in order to be "that bad" so... some backing off that scale and degree of horror could work.

I thought/saw that gyre as splitting up by D8 with part going west, and east, leaving us with a chance for a sneaky gem buried in there... After it there is another cold shot but...my guess is that modulates a bit less in the days to come. heh we'll see -

Yeah...those were the truly abysmal days of that incredible stretch of injustice to all that is good and decent - That's precisely how I remember it, too. I was in Acton and I remember specifically the days were 46 to 49 F, and the nights were like 39 or 40 ...so the total departures cheated/shirked us on how cold it "felt" too - pure evil. hahhaha. The models modulated things overnight since I mused that post though. I wrote about it very recently this morning. I haven't seen any 12z guidance but the duration (this time) appears split in this recent cycle, which is a far cry better than end-to-end misery for 20 days or whatever. Honestly...driving around mid day errands and I was thinking that if things work out that way, I'm actually on-board with solid soaking or two... Put the drought debate to bed but good -

You know ... ? back in the 1990s I can recall occasional passing statements in middle and extended range forecast discussions, or AFDs of local offices et al, that alluded to '...THE WINTER ALGORITHMS...' Yeah, all operational weather disseminations from NWS offices, right on up to NOAA head quarters, used to be cap-locked. The words also abbreviated, too. The culture seems to have changed over the decades and now everything is written plain ...most importantly, 'intelligible' text. Not, "...THE WNTR ALGRTHM.." Imagine a winter-storm AFD discussing slantwise potential voriticity advection and elevated frontogenic forcing ... Anyway, I wonder if that's still the case, cold -vs- warm season algorithms? I'm inclined to say no. The advances in working physics after years of perturbation/ensembles and regression analysis, combined with orders of magnitude improvements in computer crunching speeds and depth therein in ...et al, probably makes the modeling side of operational Meteorology closer to seamless between the seasons. But I remember pretty clearly back in the day, that it was about May 5th actually the winter algorithms were flipped to warm season - i wonder if something similar could have taken place because ... even though the pattern still looks like dung for spring and warm enthusiasts, the complexion of 850 mb cold appears alleviated somewhat out of nowhere.

Pretty clear and evident "improvements" across the suite of operational guidance overnight - quoted improvement because there are some that covet the gloom.. As a complete break-down in the prior persistent theme, day 8 in both the operaitonal Euro and GFS are completely in a different universe comparatively. The closed trough/refill/retrograde and singular node of misery hell has bifurcated (interesting that both models agree) into two distinct centers: one is split and retrograde to almost the MV, while the east node is S of NS by that day. That places the area in a "col" (or faux one) ...where a nondescript PP has variable wind under nil forcing aloft. IF the region can dry out and even half sun, that turns out to be a hugely acceptable day for those that don't secretly covet gloom. In fact, something rather abruptly ...though perhaps subtly ...seems to have swept over the guidance complexions et al, and that is that the 850 mb temperatures are warmer everywhere compared to that four days worth of extended runs we've been commiserating over prior to last night's runs. That day 8 above is +3 to +8 C, and should the sun shine heat that column we pop to 70 F ... This synoptic interpretation - mind you - is when previous runs were threatening summer snowing (haha); certainly cold mist interminably - So that's all pretty significant change... Now, we could argue that the continuity break means it's all dubious ...and it may be. However, as kind of a base-line deterministic course of lesser regret, breaking continuity to go back toward climatology is probably not as bad as the other way around ...

He's running out of quips ... Eventually the reality of what's in store will be so force fed he'll be left utterly speechless... or at best left entirely without an audience. 18z GFS flat out forgets what season it is and mid Febs a snow storm - 300 hours... It's like the closer we get to the solstice the planet wants to more and more winter like. Muse aside it's getting ridiculous... I remember 2005 and it wasn't this cold..It was unrelenting in the models and verified, but not this cold. It's really challenging what's physically possible when in the absence of a actual sulfur dioxide parasol over the stratosphere - something bizarre is going on here.

It's ironic that we just had a discussion sequence last week regarding the effectiveness of NAO blocking on modulating temperatures in May. -Right, no effect eh? It's hard to imagine how that presently, hugely agreed upon monster block retrograding across the north Atlantic Basin toward Davis straight, and the subtended negative anomalies that are more than merely figuratively targeted right on top of the Northeast and SE Canada (I'd almost go so far as to say 'targeting SNE its self'), are not physically and directly caused by that whole synoptic evolution with that block - particularly when it perfectly satisfies L/W construct arguments. This is like that whole debate about having reality in one hand ...then, choosing fake news in the other (if you think those are not connected). Yet, we go to the re-analysis pages and they keep churning out no or vague correlations ...depending on the parameters used (that may be part of it). There could be other reasons why those products don't seem to reflect this sort of actually happening events Again, those products provide very course/linear A--> B correlations that quite proficiently mask circumstance. Like, ...as we later discussed, a -4 SD NAO is probably sufficient in magnitude to alter/force anomaly distribution around our ~ latitude and longitude (west -vs- east based NAO, notwithstanding). However, in May, it may just be a function of changing waves lengths, and say ... -2 SD events not being sufficiently massive for the same forcing a -2 SD would have in January. blah blah ...no need to re-iterate the whole course... It's just that it is amazing how we had that discussion and then literally the next week an exact super-position of those facets over actual synoptic evolution is modeled to occur in real space and time. I don't see much evidence that the PNA is handling the expected cool month alone. It'll be interesting to see how negative we can get. I had a tinge of frost at my place this morning when I left for the office at around 6:30 ... Yesterday I speculated that the temp may hold up around 40 with green-up underway but...heh, it may have frosted and held up anyway - an atonement to how planetary physics are just hell-bent on thefting one of our warm months away entirely... Which is hyperbole for the reading impaired... Still, I was musing on the way to work how we try to fit March into the winter months in our local social media vernacular.. If we are being fair (which lets face it, we're not - ) we should adopt the same principle and call May a warm month ...It's just that like March, some years these months are no shows. This May in the guidance/tenors et al is like knowing the Bernie Madoff of climate is coming and being powerless to stop it.

? .. wow. if this is almost - what IS the nightmare scenario? ...I guess a comet impact ending it all might be worse, sure.

green ups pretty far along S of roughly RUT-CON ... I'm interested in if temperatures slam to a halt at 40 .. . It's not like dry top soil and brown grass ..circa the end of March anymore. The air smells of plant life now. hm

mm to be honest I was kind of hoping for some snow and a historic job- I admit. As much as I have my druthers for spring and summer to go the other way, I'm also not numb - that would be pretty f amazing.

Well ...certainly fun discussion about possibilities but... I guess there's a trend to ever so slowly normalize the extent of the anomalies, though, as we pass through the time frames in question (day 5 to 9 ish). There seems to be a 1.1 back off then .9 back on type of trend over consecutive cycles ... painfully slowly.

well... it's a very tentative trend... I'd still count on extra dose of ZANAX for now - we'll see...

This 12z GFS looks similar to the 00z EPS ...it actually manages to progress the trough enough E of us to give us some fragmented improvement by day 6.5

definitely game of inches this time of year... well, KMs for the purposes of Meteorology.. The EPS has that rough axis too far E and implies we could even be fair conditions albeit chilly during the duration the operational version has us flirting with history. the other thing is that it cold rains around the edges of these sorts of things in the spring, and particularly that will be true in late spring at that. Greens on rad ptypes with like two or three blue blobs that blink on and off amid the core of the shield ... where the valleys are smearing cat paws while 1,000 feet up is losing power. point being despite the look things have to align pretty elegantly to server -

For me it comes down to the air mass a region is working with, as the lion's share of forcing physical outcomes? The sun is certainly important. Duh. However, a cold thickness drizzly rain with the sun dimly visible in late April is probably light flurries snow in the same air mass in January (for example). But, given sufficiently dense overcast and UVM on-going, that fact that it is proven possible to snow in May ( a mere month before the hottest, highest sun angle of the year...) means that the same conditions (relative to solar calendar) "could' happen at the end of July. The sun intensity per se is no different to an exceptionally close approximation, whether 30 days before or aft the Solstice. The difference is sourcing ... By the time May flips to page into June, we are integrating the higher latitudes (they are catching up) to the warming on a hemispheric scope - and such that any cold source by then has just been warmed too much for exotic returns. As perhaps a 'fuzzy logic' way to think of it, it snowed in the year without a summer because of dimming insolation on the planetary scale from volcanism; that's another way of saying the source regions of cold were not able to warm so it snowed at weird times of the year. Yet another way ... we are far enough N in latitude that the circumstantial fragility of summer is exposed from rare time to rare time.

May 2005 was never 62 for any reason or sensibility of relief for a solid two weeks, though. I get what you mean, however, in concept ...where 'refitting' and pulling the close low back retrograde in a cyclic horror story, sure - that specific behavior noted. (just talking about 06z GFS comparison to 2005... etc) But May 2005 was a uniquely satan rectal plague scenario. I think that was so unique, dark humor aside... that the return rate on that is probably rarer? That's my opinion, granted, by fair description for that 2005 ordeal really was a minimum of about 12 days spend in the mid 40s with lows around 39, and when it was not misting heavily with a harsh biting wind, it was gales with thrashing Nor'easter rains. There were not 6 hour reach-around mercies of 60 during that stretch ...and probably not for that third week either.

But I mean seriously ...tell me that doesn't look similar - It's certainly not a huge leap from what we're seeing out there. That D9 for example ...wait, what's the analogs say? I bet that example is on the list here