Typhoon Tip

60 was the high here ... spent the integral at 57

that really is amusingly calm out there in the mdr. here it is the apex climo or close to it, and huckleberry fin's raft could make it unscathed the entire thousands of miles across the basin ...during a season of predicted epicosity. never gets old! hahaha

we are getting so f'n screwed here in new england. christ it's warmer up in maine. this is three consecutive days where east of the berks and sw of maine has been targeted to host the entire planetary budget for offset cc. if it were not for sne, the world global average would be putting up another temperature surge -

the issue with species is that that deltas are happening at a faster rate of change than the adaptation rates. die -offs will commence well before the destiny of the temperatures are realized. autotrophic ( producer ) species are most fragile and foot food pyramids - ... academically, the latter become unstable and ultimately the collapse ecologies follow. mass extinctions

man ... smelling the air and watching the slaty gray sky race sw, it's an exact likeness to a spirit killing bd butt f'n

there's still 10 days left to muck up impressions of this particular september, though. this morass that's plaguing eastern areas ... marks the decay of that persistence we enjoyed over the last couple of weeks. not clear what the next 10 days will entail, but there's everything from fronts to tropical squirts up the coast, neither of which is being handled very well in guidance ... but all of which are definitely in the possible manifold of reasons to f'ing hate the shit out of this asshole month lol. ... speaking of which, plagued by this garbage the way we are, reminds me of april. albany 80, boston 62 with the harbor sharting right at civility like a roman god's cruelty is classically 'fair' distribution. hahaha

pretty solidly damning science/article here... https://phys.org/news/2024-09-earth-global-temperature-drastically-million.html i like this, ".. But greenhouse gas emissions caused by anthropogenic climate change are currently warming the planet at a much faster rate than even the fastest warming events of the Phanerozoic..." we just experience that global t burst last year... it seems entirely intuitive to me - if not likely ... - that the cc temperature curve of the future will feature more of these surges, rather than a cozy predictable and easily adaptive helpful change rate ( lol, but seriously - )

GFS won’t give up with the attempt at Sandy cousin if not redux

meanwhile ... i'm seeing a winter hemisphere characterized by something between a vestige and an out right rudimentary repeat of the last 6 or 7 of them so there it is. either a seasonal forecast write-up worthy of a dissertation submission, or that statement. to me, as long as either end up with that same principle, both score. lol

how come you don't work there now? - if it's not too personal

oz euro still insisting light rain plume penetrates west early tomorrow into the interior ... rotating sw. american models do not - although the nam hints at bvr/strata related moisture. albeit minor, it's an interesting model contest. actually the 06z euro's dry now so... chicken shit model won't play

yeah not a good sign for rain-wanters when the nam corrects s-e inside of 42 hours. particularly in the winter, that model's typically nw of all others ... then corrects s-e when in short terms - usually laughing at the storm wieners when it takes the rug and runs away. this thing looks like it's matching that corrective behavior regardless of it being 75 -80 f

given to the lack of activity to date causing non-dispersion, the ohc over the western caribbean/gulf routes are about as loaded as is physically possible - it's probably not a huge leap to hunch whatever develops down there might become an impressive concern to put it mildly. it's not just the ohc tho. ohc can be extreme - doesn't matter without the other circulation machinery. but that's changing... the erstwhile suppression i myself have suggested, appears to be at long last progressing away from the basin. take the lid off the pressure cooker? the 12z gfs is likely over-amplified - what's new - beyond d7 up north ...but, the advent or emergence of a tc down there can happen independent of the gfs' handling of the westerlies/pattern at mid latitudes. it's from recent guidance i've seen ...about d4.5 is when the region seems to develop from something actually ejected out of s. america which is interesting.

there's been events, extreme ones at that, during this last 2 years though flooding may not be everyone's cup of tea, granted. but the vt [seemingly new climate regime] rain bombs, ...the one in leominster and then more recently in ct, were amazing to watch from afar, and to see unfold in real time data/observation tech, nonetheless. don't mean to condescend ( seriously ...) but some of it might be related to 'drama addiction' ? maybe dystopian-drama is more apropos. we've all admitted to a kind of 'rush' felt at the instant of the model's 96 hour forecast ...suggesting the 180 hour might look dramatic - and then watching the movie of the model play out that vibe is some sort of weird satisfaction. endorphin thing, even and gives a fix for excitement. i'm probably going too far with this here ( what's new lol ) but it kind of all goes back to the psychotropic addiction stuff we've brought to light in the past. it was investigated by 60 minutes. it was showcased by 'the social dilemma' ( ex facebook engineers tell-all). folks sort of become ... something like addicted to the specter and emotion of witnessing the world's dirty laundry. these models ( 'cinema' as i like to call them..) sort of tap into that same phenom. and the addiction isn't really a basis from which expectations will ever match reality. that all said, ... yeah we haven't had a 1938 or gloria thing is 30+ years. we haven't had a winter that, forget psychotropic doom scrolling, ...we can't even merely write (dying art) home about either. but there have been things that are out of the ordinary enough. frankly, i dance around the idea that winters may never be what we were raised to see them as.

i know.. 'dry begets dry' i guess

this morass down the coast and over the waters s of li is all being generated by a 582 dm close surface/circulation envelope. 582 it's a single contour closed remnant of whatever that thing was that came inland down there the other day. yet it has all this presentation like it's way more. it's always a reminder in this game how much relativity is everything. it doesn't matter that 582 hgts can have 100f at the surface - which makes 64 and rain a very low bar for that metric. or that a single contour is weak by any standard metric or convention, in general so why the big mass. it only matters if the surrounding medium is allowing it to become the dominating force at that time

seein' as no one at all asked i'm hoping for a 2-3" basin deal/bust high ...that fades by saturday and the sun's back out by noon. nice sunday follows.

i was wondering if we might see a week or two late anomaly on that myself, but perhaps that won't be the case. mostly because the indexes seemed to suggest less favorable retention into these first weeks of sept. arctic oscillation going negative in latter august and so forth. it seems sept 7 to 15 is the corner-turning week when looking at that historically. not sure about all years in that but just a cursory look at the curves. that might be an interestingly damning signal at some point in the future. say if some tortured retention year ... then goes on to actually waiting to turn the corner until a couple of weeks later. - the ultimate threshold crossing, so to speak. the thing is, on sept 15 the sun is crawling along the horizon at the geo n pole. by this sunday morning, it's twilight there. it's not a huge intuitive leap to guess why sept 15 tends to formally end the melting, when talking about ssts of 32 F losing solar input at that time. so in a sense, that should leave some combination of the background climate, together with whatever pattern anomalies and heat transporting in, as the remaining forcing for any such extension of melting. so if it were belated and the pattern isn't as obviously culpable ..well that doesn't leave much else and that would scream a threshold. hell, if nothing else, good science fiction. lol

there's a lot of urban layouts across the continent that have not arrived through time with as much expansion, where also observing proportionate gains in t averages ( relative to their specific climate). the idea should be consistent in the integral of the curve - which it is not. in other words, the rises have been ubiquitous, while the rate of urban expansion was too variable to logically conclude hi effects 'as much'. i did not say phx's growth in that respect is no factor. no issue with that. what i said was, it's mostly climate change. and it has to be anyway, because the climate provides the environment for the uhi feedback - not the other way around i might be mistaken here but i suspect folks are thinking that the consiliency of cc is actually not considering the urban heat island in the data ? no

not sure what the precise climatology/calendar is for this but for the use of figuring out when looks like the first regional frost potential in the first few days of october - that'd be my estimate based on signals

i'll bite... a flip in the pna leads to a trough digging s. this feature closes off, doing so with perfectly exquisite timing. what could go wrong at this time range huh nevertheless, these flow changes in general, draw a tc out of the caribbean, across cuba, over florida ... while interestingly, not weakening it appreciably enough despite encountering these land regions. then it even intensifies further as it comes n astride the western side of the g-string waters down there. closed low ultimately sucking it into it like a star wondering too close to a blackhole. one should gather an impression of how this above ends up after this frame.... if you guessed this, ... you guessed wisely. however, none of which is either a statement of forecast from me, nor is very likely at this range to be correct but that's understood. the main usefulness of this model's 00z run ( for now ) is that it is the first entertainment/eye-candy in probably 40 days worth ennui so crushing as to challenge the very endurance of man

i do see a pathway to vulnerability ioa the gulf/florida and the se out there in the d7-12 range. it has to do with the wholesale change in pattern in the main belt of the westerlies from easern asia all the way around... in short the powerful positive wpo, which has really predominated and forced a kind of pattern lock down over the last 10 days - i time which has been more than decent to use here in new england, much to the chagrin of the responsibly minded disaster zealot posters in here ... - is finally indicated in all major ensemble clusters to collapse. that translates a repositioning of the l/w progression through the np ... ultimately across n/a after some lag. it does a bunch of stuff but the main take away is the entire flow paradigm modulates anew. a transient positive pnap through the west teleconnects to nw flow over st louis mo, which in turn tips the deep layer flow s along the ec. whether these models like the recent ggem and the gfs are right about that western car. tc that's a sides the changes above. but.. if a tc is there, the former provides a means for it getting drawn into the interest region(s). predicated on the idea of these ens based mode changes working out, that gives a window

i suggest if folks expanded/considered this research over the whole globe they may find mid latitude velocity anomalies elsewhere, as well.

unrelated observation ... but, that cool region in the mid west is interesting. i read material - perhaps links provided in this site's climate threads - related to farmland irrigation practices causing that. elevating evaporation mass lowers the temperature, but stores the energy in the dps might be interesting to see this product as dew points and then overlay -

It’s mostly climate change… I’ve never bought it that the urban he Island is a big enough factor in this thing because frankly, the urban heat is has been there since the middle of last century. So it’s on both sides of the trendline, and therefore should be equitable and eliminated as a common factor