Typhoon Tip

This is very interesting https://phys.org/news/2024-04-scientists-paradox-extreme-cold-events.html I've mused a possible sci fi novel idea in the past where "Gaia," it turns out, has an an ethereal consciousness; it's just so vast it eludes what we think of as awareness - ... perhaps 'godlike'. And, it is well-aware of CC, more importantly, how to "cure" the disease. I like the analogy of the Clean setting on an oven - you know... raise the temperature to kiln degrees and converts the organics to ash. The impetus here is of course to clean the disease causing agent. But that's kind of hard to do if the pathogen is aware of the temperature rise. Uh... humans are the intended ash to complete this metaphor. By sending cold cloaks into the continents ... think of the frog in the pan experiment: plunk a frog into a pan of boiling water and it immediately jumps out ( or tries to...). But turn the heat up slowly and the frog, continuously adapting, will do so until it is cooked alive. That's all tongue-in-cheek, but it's an eerie negative feedback loop whence the primary inducing differential CC agent only responds immediately to that which is directly perceivable through the five senses ... which is precisely needed, and is being offset.

Nice ... much milder 12z GFS run. Much more in line with the ensemble mean's mass field distribution out in time so perhaps giving this type of solution some credence. It has a flat ridge in a -PNAP continental flow structure, with a wavy boundary from roughly IA to ME in the extended -

It's an annoying look for spring/warmth enthusiasts. We'll have to keep scraping by with 'fake' warm days at best, and may have some chilly ones mixed in ... until 7 to 10 days from now. I doubt any of those cold profiled events the GFS' native bias to disregard seasonal forcing and run back to February it always does at this time of year, have much of any hope of actually materializing. Rarely so, the April 1987 and May 1977's can happen. But given the stochastic nature of spring modeling season in general ...those are more typically last minute detected. In a cooler hemisphere in spring, the GFS will be the first in line to offer up 6:2 snow at 20" fantasies.

Wrong ... Kevin already proclaimed spring 2023 was warm and dewy everywhere - ...I think he should know. god

Look at this incredible warm up on the 12z Euro ..

All we have to do is reverse the last 3 decades of accelerated global warming ...thus, returning the total manifold of base circulation tendencies to the previous paradigm ... The "Japan marine heat wave" will go ahead and disperse should be easy to do

we'll be fretting around with nape -like days ... some mild, but a few cooler than normal through D7 but we really need to get on the other side of this, which is pretty well agreed upon by every modeling convention there is, telecon to operational version. After 6 or 7 days from now, this has rapidly moderated to a general nominal dispersion of neg and pos anomalies ... by then being late April/sun it's like the final escape out of this abysmal cold season at that time - that's probably be modestly AN. In fact, there's even to modest suggestion emerging that a mirror departure may formulate very late this month - but heh ...extended range in April is about as dependable as a lotto ticket so we'll see.

Temps approaching the mid 80s on the 29th no less... ha

34 ? heh Not likely that your garden's nut sack tickles 32, no ... but, big high, null wind, DPs of 24 or whatever will likely radiate the interior into problem territory, if the overnight guidance were correct, as is. Short version, there's a fair chance it won't actually be as cold as the overnight guidance. Longer, is the whole attenuation game ... Models tend to oversell just about everything they see out in time. It's gotten worse over the last 10 or years - roughly around the time all this exotic computing power/speed surged. interesting. But it seems almost perfunctory to assume all cold waves, hot waves, storm amplitude ... hell, the connections I make on my dating apps ... just go ahead and assume some 10 to 50% less inspiring actually happens. Seasonal forcing in spring has always tended to cause cool bias errors in extended range modeling. That's been there long before this recent model attenuation thing. So combining those two aspect... Kevin will now undoubtedly interpret this exchange as an install affirmation and temperatures approaching 90

Ha ha ha, Weatherwiz

The sun won't be denied though. Even if the ambient temperature is held into the upper 40s ... when the wind is light and the sky is open, the sun has a way of offsetting that significantly. Sometimes it helps to compare against the mirror season to put sol into perspective... This is the same sun as ~ August 24th today, and August 19 by this weekend.

Ummm

still was 36 here with just a subtle amount of frost on the top of the car though. None in the lawn and so forth, no, but exposed metallic surfaces at 36 ? heh Kinda feel that has to stop before the seasonal gravity well has truly been escaped. It's like the Voyager I ... even though it is beyond the terminal shock boundary ... until passes through the interstellar La Grange point it still technically in the sun's outer tentacles. haha ... oooo k Anyway, the reason I muse about it is because this f'n -EPO is for real. Hate it. The overnight runs leaned colder again, loading S-SE Canada with neg anomaly ... I think we're gonna have to risk some frosty mornings this weekend. We really/probably should be on the other side of that 2 to 3 day window and then we'll be at last seasonally released. somethin' like that

and the sun is hot! It always feels warm of course but this light/no wind scenario under 100% open sky, that sun is like sitting in front of an emitter of a microwave oven

somewhat rare phenomenon this morning ... the bona fide 0% cloud at pan-dimensional scale

That's a local yokel favorite "hang out" for suicide ..there, and testing gravity through the 70 foot of draft under the university ave bridge. The bladed rocks at the bottom make "absolution" a certainty.

Floods are interesting to observe first hand. Objects et al sticking out of water like they have no business being where they are. It's not unusual as your driving by, you look over your shoulder to see a playground swing set and its attached slide jutting out mid way up. A repurposed oil-drum painted green being used as a garbage can nearby. What is it about playgrounds and ball parks - they always seem to be laid out right next to some innocuous slow moving stream on the other side of a brambled row of shrubbery, just beyond the outfield's chain-link fence. It's like the settlers might have surveyed the land back whence and realized a flood control issue and thought, 'Well, what the hell else are we gonna to do with the land?' Typical white man ... instead of just leaving it be, they create a rec center out of the natural setting - 'cept... said Nature didn't get that memo during wet springs. Scale that up and obviously we're talking about a whole different dimension of gawk affect. Like... the Merrimack River in May, 2006. Mother's Day weekend, in short order a stalled cut-off low pumped some 3 or 4 month's worth of rain into the head region up in the Whites after a respectably hefty snow year was still trying to unburden itself down the water shed. Wow... arresting. The overflow at the Tyngsborough dam just up the way from UML has about a 20 ft draft over the crest to the crag rock below, that latter more typically dried out and exposed on a typical August afternoon. It also demarcates the beginning of the aqueduct that runs immediately parallel to the original river basin from that point about a mile to a main gate that rejoins the river just east of the University Ave bridge - it's nearly 50 feet deep at that point. It was originally used to power the Mill industry during the latter gilded era and early industrialization's invasion of the Merrimack Valley known as Lowell's Boote Cotton Mills. There was flood in ( I think 1937 ) ... The 2005 event may have come close to 90th percentile of that. I'm not sure... but both overwhelmed that control system. The water in 2005 flowed over top the dam to such an astonishing altitude that it became nearly laminar over the top. 20 foot draft below that crest and the water above and below the dam became nearly not above nor below the dam. After having been on or around the campus for 4 or 5 years through the late 1990s ... to then go back and see that sight was ... you just stood there wide eyed.

There could be early heat S of 45 N as far NE as Chicago later in the month after we get past/exhausted that -EPO cold load here in the foreground. interesting. The telecon spread is beginning to enter the less statistically significant warm season ... but, the AO(epo/nao) appear to rapidly neutralize to N/S standard deviation really by the end of this week 1. After that, the PNA is meandering meaninglessly above and/or below 0 SD itself which amounts to neutral. I see the zonal tendency to the field still hinted in the cinema out in time between the Date meridian and California over the Pacific... I wouldn't be shocked if we see a low amplitude (spatial ) warm SW release in over the last 7 to 10 days of the month. Zonal tendencies also tend to precede ridging and then sure enough, the long range does show a ridge between Hawaii and the WC ... concomitantly, heights fall over the Great Basin.

Are your lilacs leafing out? I've had the unfortunate reality of having lived at this address now 7 or 8 years longer than I had originally envisioned of my future life ... and over the course of the extended stay I have observed lilac bloom behavior as getting early and earlier every year. Right now, the leafs are young but unfurling, and there are adolescence bouquets emerging too. This may be the earliest yet What can I say ...I'm a nerd. For some reason I notice things like that and they stick to my memory like Rain Man

In fact, any day this week that ends up more sun than clouds ...with winds light while the deep, life-heat suckin Labrador death air doesn't invade inland, probably goes a 1-3 ticks above machine numbers. Also, that cold raw rain with east drill wind scenario on Thursday has been attenuating. The GGEM fails its arrival altogether at this point. Attenuating systems happens in the guidance anyway ( for unrelated whatever reason - ) but combining that tendency with the sun homogenizing the ambient hemisphere ... those larger scaled wave events are all suspect.

Pine is yellow. That yellow resin on exposed surfaces in mid spring is typically pine. Y'allz living up in dem dar wooded hills with dem other bango twangers, you probably already know that but just sayn'

The global models seem to be caving to seasonal forcing. The earlier synoptic complexion from a few days ago drove the 18th - 24th into orchard failure cold wave but so much of that has eased since then that what's implicated now may only be marginally damaging if at all, spanning fewer days as well. I still expect some cool anomalies to pervade S-SE Canada, draped perpaps as far down as IND-DAY-PHL type latitude ( more N of course...) but the scale and degree of the -EPO driven interlude cutting into spring vibe as though back to early March is all but gone at this point. Look at the 00z operational Euro's 850 mb layout at 12z on the 22nd, and compare it to 12 hours later - sun is embarrassing that air mass with that modulation at 850, a classic seasonal forcing ending winter whether winter wants to end or not. The original outlook from a few days back was not doing this, either. It's interesting that the models suddenly do so now.

We green up this week... Some of that is already obvious, with shrubbery leaf out and flowers. Lawn/fields are green. But by this time next week I would expect larger stemmed species to at least be sitting on the edge of their bed. The Norway buds will be swollen if not cracked. Red maple were hinting their spring hues last week but have since fully flushed. Closing the book on the mud season chapter. Big motivator in green up is that first week's worth of days keeping the night above trigger temperatures. Can't be car top frosting every morning, or the sun powered afternoon nape days are fake and the foliage knows it. It will slow things down.

MAV is 73 at BDL and 70 at ASH Mid April sun, forcing an air mass such as this, should bust machine numbers somewhat on the cool side. That's typical of spring transition season - MOS/machine products tend to cap the T ~ 1 to 3 F lower than actual. I've always wondered why that is. It seems it's always been that way. Anyway, light d-slope under 850s around +5C and ceiling coverage going to nil is a bud buster on April 15

https://www.noaa.gov/news/last-month-was-earths-warmest-march-on-record It'll be interesting to see if April does this ...