Typhoon Tip

95 here ... 95 FIT ... seems this end of Rt 2 is doing well in this. 93 at ASH. Most sites are 91 to 93 tho. Still a couple hours to go ...

zero air movement and unadulterated sear sun - feels like we're sitting in an oven right in front the MW emitter out there

pinged 95/66 Mesowest FIT

yeah I was looking at that. though gradient overall is weak, a couple more degrees and we may see some momentum/WSW ... could cause the old 5:30 ... 7pm spike

93 so far here

It's 91 here ... 91 at FIT ... and 90 at ASH that depiction isn't right for what it makes the complexion look like

The NAM bursting the T1 by 3 C, and the T2 by 1 to 2 C in this run this morning, and looking at area obs already 90 as of 11:xx am should give pause when using the MET for tomorrow. Now that we are in the same synoptic realm that will realize both today and tomorrow ... we are valid to test the behavior ( now-cast ) this thing.

Now that we've collectively groused the apparent "failure" of the models to correctly assess the temperatures that will be realized by this first bigger anomaly of the season, ... the 12z NAM came in with a real roaster at Logan for tomorrow and Thursday. FOUS grid for BOS 30000607452 -1494 242311 77 31 22 15 54000545750 -1193 222311 77 32 23 16 Those spreads will typically yield 35 .. 36 in the 2-meter. There is no codified def for "big heat" but I've always suggested 95 - with some valid argument that the HI should be a part of that discussion. With DPs in the 65 to 71 range, there's not much contention either way if those are realized.

they've always been less useful

The bold isn't really true, though ... not mathematically nor in practicum ( I figure you're just being hyperbolic, granted - ) Confidence may not be very high - it depends on the leading circumstantial indicators. If it makes anyone feel any better, ...we pointed out that this amplitude/+anomaly was lacking the 850 mb thermal injection/release from the typical source geographies - that might have been a clue that the models were overstating the heat? - just a suggestion. For whatever reason they had, Brian and Scott were also mentioning that the numbers appeared too lofty. I mean, we pick and choose what "data" we want to use. If these constraining ideas were incorporated, that might move the confidence arrow up or down. And there's some concept relativity there, too. Like, we could say we are "higher confidence in the models being too amplified with temperature results" say - Op ed: part of the problem ( not you per se - ) is that society has developed a kind of lust for dystopian headline-able events - it's really a kind of 'soft addictive' preoccupation. It sort of began in the latter 1990s whence telecom art of dissemination went through a tech advancement boon ... "doom scrolling" as it were, has become an entertaining pass-time and even trigger for some. People have access enough to data that they could formulate their own impressions but that is rife with problems. The shimmering sophisticate nature of the populous is definitely going to synthesize reality with the utmost unbiased usage of various data inputs LOL The models sending their triggers big numbers heh

Mmm what's happening is more than just labeling the Euro. The Euro was a 1-3 F warmer than other guidance, ... not a huge margin firstly. Should this actually become more of a pedestrian heat anomaly they are all guilty by association as they all spent many run cycles in the high 90s. Just op ed: something unusual is happening with this pattern. It seems the ridging in the mid and upper levels are quasi uncoupled from the surface - somehow... The models are placing fronts under 590 heights, with very little or no trough inflection at mid level. This is not typically happening like this

It's as though the models are uncoupling the low levels from the mid level synoptics. Not just the temperatures inside the range of this "heat wave" ... in all three, Euro GFS GGEM, there is a cool front ending matters by Thursday afternoon at this point. Thing is, there's very little or no 700 to 500 mb construct that suggests a front should be there that early in the game. They're moving a weak front with a ton of temperature modulation capacity, into and under those towering heights. It's a little odd. One aspect (sort of intangible ..) about this thing is interesting is that the operational models have been fighting the teleconnectors from the get go. Even if the telecon's are losing correlative value do to seasonal skewing etc ... the spatial synoptic layouts of the ensemble means have also been very impressive. The two support(ed) one another.

Yeah, the model has refreshing lower DPs and cooling temperatures particularly centered over N-central CT in terms of biggest physical whiplash awesomeness that everyone wants -

Yeah, no one in their right mind would see this layout as being different ...

Agreed. Been thinking 97er heh. I think the heights are left sort of gutted. this whole situation would soar/perform better with that 850 mb/sw injection. The pattern isn't over though from what I'm looking at. Looks like the -PNA may send another ridge.

It's like that in Kalamazoo, too

Turning into a refreshing looking front on Saturday ... nice. I was thinking based on the mid level configuration the models were too aggressive with the inevitable boundary but the Euro's got the back door look at 500 mb now. so we'll see.

And now they're not that high. LOL ... I mean eastern IN and western OH is exactly where it's dried. weird It's probably not significant to the big picture.

Leave it up to y'all to quibble but NWS is giving us this

Lot of mix 60s DPs showing up out in the IN/OH region now...

We'll likely recess this positive anomaly we're in ( the models appear too aggressive with fronts over the weekend but MCS activity may also get involved/obfuscate matters...) but the general -PNA scaffold remains in place, so this kind of signal in the operational GFS' extended has more relative merit. Feel higher than model climate confidence for eastern ridging - obviously less so for details.

Hey Brian, looks like some mixing has commenced as DPS are more 70 to 73 across the southern Lakes and IN/OH. The NAM appears reasonable relative to hr 12z fwiw -

Home grower season, right on schedule.

There's an element of discovery in every entry into a new pattern - which this is... The heights are evolving faster than the surface is catching up. If you look at 12z's initialization on this NAM run ( not saying anything that happens afterword has much value one way or the other ...) we are already over 582+ heights within a recognizable heat -related configuration. I've seen it be 98 like that. Again, the 850 mb is missing from this - or is yet to catch up... etc. Yet it's 75 at 11. Point is, this is coming in like a wall. Bursting forth is probably apropos. I don't think today, lagging as it appears to be, will be of much useful indication or offer much value in the area of "correcting" based on now-cast/present behavior biasing. I was noticing that the 850 mb rise from 13C at dawn to 16 or so by 21 Z... continuing to rise toward 18 or 19 Tues at dawm. We may even have a late high temperature today. Like we creep to 84 not realized until 5:30 pm ...then the lows tonight stay relatively elevated. It may be more like how tomorrow's behavior goes; telling us something about Wed. There's going to be some cumulative effect thereafter. Like the lows Wed night should be higher than the lows Tues night, even though by then...both overnights will be embedded in the same synoptic circumstance. That's just the battery charging from two days -worth of insolation vs just one... Thursday night could be quite impressive for that matter. We'll have to see how the DP advection fits into that. If we get a metalic 74DP in place under a 95 or 96 afternoon, that night may stay 80 in urban layouts.

This may be earn me some googly eye emoji's but ... you know, when it's 52 F on Sunday mornings with no snow on the ground and not particularly muddy, that is a terrific time to engage in outdoor sports. It's not hot. It's not cold. I've grown to appreciate the opportunities outside of home, too. Doesn't mean I don't want big winter expression. I still dork out for that too. But just sayn' ... activities like disc golf and tennis me and crew like to do doesn't get shut down that way.