Typhoon Tip

the mjo appears to have trouble propagating beyond phase 4. it is rather abruptly collapsing in the individual ens means in the rmm. while that is occurring, wpo is also tending to correct downward as the outer edge/emergent extended materializes over the temporal horizon. it's neutral out there around 300+hrs, but it's been failing to move closer in time along the mean curve... so long as all this is the case, current mjo outlook is in conflict with the wpo forcing, wrt the mid and upper latitudes ... the 'tendency' to -d(wpo), and the nearer turn -wpo phase state, together suggests the real hemispheric state for me however, those opposing forces are likely to enhance model variability in the mid month period, as far as determining the general pattern motif in that time.

i saw this meme the other day that was eye rollingly funny... it was something like only in amerca do people trample over one another is a psychopathic rage of material hollowness a day after celebrating, in peace, a holiday to be Thankful for what they have. ...although, some of the households in here ... you know, you wonder if they are a delicious pressure cooker socio-dynamic functionality state, where time outs spent with social media serve as a release valve... lol

probably i have a different approach to this material than most but when first glancing over these 500 mb frames what occurs to me first and immediately is alway 'what needs to be fixed' ...really the instant they pass into eye like i see immediately two problems with that above ( other than the 210 hr header sarcasm ) the first is, there is no ridging over the western atlantic basin there. that trough amplitude could increase by factors of 2 or 3 X's it scaffolded power ... if that flow stays flat leaving the continent/coast that is doomed to nada. the other aspect i hate is the gradient between 45 n vs 30 n, nearing 80 w ... it's too much. i've referred to this in the past as the miami rule - it's just a means to identify negative interference between the large, vs smaller scales. i look at heights over mia prior to any diving wave out of western canada. if they are > 582 dm, and/or the base geostrophic wind ( the flags along the isopleths) are over 35 kts there is negative interference between the large vs smaller scales. another way to sense this interference is occurring, despite all that depth over michigan, the delta(pna) is not that impressive anywhere around the circumvallate of that trough.

on the road and not having been very well tuned in as of late ... but this 29th look hasn't changed since detection began over a week or whatever ago frankly. the cold was taken away in the guidance along the way. wah wah waahhh, as the sad trumpet goes. and while no trophy foisting yet, at this point a 29th occurrence is likely. probably a blend of the op runs and call it a day. as an aside, the gfs was likeliy too flat when this was mid ranged. again... not trophies yet, but the euro will likely win that debate. i'm not sure we're getting a euro 992 deepener passing e of bos per se ... but in principle, the gfs was indicating zip impact partly sunny with a flat wave 150 mi south of islip li over too many run cycles - that will likely turn out to be a bad mid range effort.

it is. it actually fits the canonical load -release -load timing that more typically separates events in the atmosphere. sometimes the 2 in 72 hour thing can happen - 1997 - and so forth but that's rarer. i feel the 29th is a real event ...whether it develops in time for us or not, doesn't matter. meteorologically it counts as the succession. anyway, the dec 5-7 is legit

it's the gfs what it's doing is acknowledging or arriving a very impressive pattern scaffolding ... but, negative or destructively interfering everything within the wholesale construct. if it gets it's way, the whole hemisphere will have changed from a warm base to a cold base, having nothing happen anywhere - ha, so it seems... i dunno. it's not really how things typically work, and the hurried frenzy where waves catch up and bully into each other mmm, yeah to some degree - the flow is quickening. it isn't without merit, but i feel the gfs does this thing where it's too willing, going too far whenever that memo's out there.

this such a bum solution by the ggem at d6 ...

i dunno - i think a 'fair' subjective impressing ( ...good luck with that in the court of public opinion and social media's razor sharp equitability ...) is that what is presently modeled there is thrilling... i get it that is is not a stem-wound bomb potential ( as is ..) but that's not fair lol in part, we've not had this sort of pattern look, nor one that is entered by that kind of set up... since perhaps 2008! also, this is advancing in climatology, thi sort of look below, by several weeks or more. between the former and this aspect, this is an unusual total pattern loading and any potentials therefrom should also in the fairer sense draw some attention.

what i find interesting about the outer <-- correction tendencies we've been observing ( i mentioned last week the wpo's been guilty of that as well fwiw - ) is that it seems the mjo is ( thankfully ) demonstrating early in the year ( thus necessarily reeducating people ) that it's not a pattern forcing mechanism, but is a reenforcer. the surrounding hemisphere has to be mechanically in sync it appears there are other motivating factors that are favoring a front loaded winter, and that they are suppresing/destructively interfering with the mjo in the right side of the rmm/marine continent.

suggest 80% eps/geps blend weighting against gefs 20% - so not discarding the flatter appeal altogether, some inclusion in the latter is okay given to the quickening flow around the epo cold loading that's currently taking over continent. the gradient physically forces this latter aspect the flow's likely to speed up ... which unfortunately plays right into the gefs model system's subtle progressive bias that it inherited from previous versions - those were worse with that particular bias. i don' know about details with ptype and where. i'm just talking about averaging for a moderate fast moving cyclone. out of town. i shall miss whatever that entails

the over all mass field handling between the date line and south of greenland is idiosyncratically different in the gfs. it's conserving a flatter rna signal, and that is in fact a constructive interference with the -nao phase states. so..it's just stronger with the nao because of it's flatter pna. the positive pna is technically unstable -aam load and usually doesn't last if it is in tandem with a -nao. the stable orientation is a +pna/+nao is the eventual rest state - this is technically more true in jf than nd, but it's vaguely there ...it comes down to in situ wave lengths. since we appear to be handling longer wlen like it were already in mid winter ...than the shoe fits. euro stronger pna = weaker nao = less suppression gef weaker pna = stronger nao = more suppression

the nao is actually overbearing on this version ( gfs ) - if fact, that may be part of why it has been flatter than the other guidance since it started selling the bigger nao yesterday. may or not be so - but that's suppression

something else i wanna add. it's low consideration but non-zero. there's a predecessor system around the 26/27th that scoots up as an eastern lake cutter, .. up the st l seaway. it's trended into an important system. one aspect of which ... it appears now capable ( as modeled ) of laying down a near-by cryosphere through ontario. that's actually a help in modulating low level cold supply.

be an interesting eps coup for a week out over the gefs, because the latter's all but oblivious to next friday. i have to say, there's a new +delta emerging in the pna coming from the eps and geps ... it's gained more coherency over 3 consecutive cycles. this 12z run is a flat out mode change at this point. it should be noted, when +d(pna)'s take place during or post recent -epo's ... that is the typical prelude before cold loading along the mid latitude continent. in basic concept, that's establishing baroclinic/ambient polar boundary, thus enhancing storm genesis potential ... and dopamine gets injected.. heh. anyway, usually along the colorado - nyc axis. however, the gefs is much more neutral with the pna - even as of this 12z this morning's run it's not having it. not sure i trust that given the super synoptic ( and for lack of better word, 'intangible' ) trends. plus, the operational gfs actually came half way back more coherent with the 29th system over it's 00z run. something is there, and it's winter of profile... it should also be noted that the gfs had no problem carrying a 29th system through yesterday's runs. so it has a history of abetting the idea there. this is a sub-index scaled event. it's upside is probably limited to moderate in scope and scale. but, those are more apt to make us suffer some stochastic model handling. i want to start a thread but i'd like to see all three ens means at least trending in the gefs. it's the first real 'winter pattern' event trackable of the season and is worth of a separated discussion imo and confidence but in deference to being so early in the year ... heh

12z nam backed things up a bit too - not sure if the graphical presentation gets that far west, but the fous for logan is an inch of cat paw white rain

hmm... depends on what source one is using? this is the best ensemble presentation for that 29th thing to date, 00z eps mean. part of the problem with this event in guidance, other than that tiny little in "180" for time range ... is that it is sub-index scaled. the models will be more stochastic with small domain space events than they will with large mass field -directed majors. in other words, wait it out a couple of days is kind of obvious

yeah this system was inverted ( laterally ...) all along in the models. it's a diving -d(nao) under pinning low event, that is arriving on the heels of an antecedent warm pattern - consequentially, there was a defined dearth in cold leading the system environment. the cold is on the south side of the circulation because of that anomaly. and ... what east and/or northeast trajectories there were( you know all this ... ) ... gom buoys are reporting 50 to 52 ssts it's just is was a typical gloomy november deal

didn't ask me but agreed ( bold ) it's marginal+ environment, but so far there are ptype rad returns west of the capital district, already, prior to best dynamics and also, albeit fractional ... it's a colder leaning quagmire during the night at this time of year.

yup... the ski industry gets a nice start out of these next two weeks for that matter. probably be summit squalls regardless -

sure is nice pattern eye candy ...

although ... the probability is going to be higher up by ray's place than kevin's due to where they are in relation to the system.

i'm not speaking for Will but ... i don't think tomorrow night was really very high confidence to begin with. in my mind, it's possible - that's about it. it's up to the reader to be fair and honest about what that means. it's probably 36 to 39f through the region, with period light rain and cat paws in a stiffening n wind as that ccb clips the region ... but it's not long lasting either. it's probably just cloud and raw with wind in the afternoon (sat). this may perform better on mt wachusett and monadnock

yeah... ironically, i recall just yesterday mentioning that without out or nominal polar high north of the region, we can still pull off an event by so-called 'needle threading' this is pretty much exactly how the 12z operational gfs gets at least a 34 f type of event through the region ( ~29th ). the 2nd's still also on the table btw -

yeah.. it's too marginal to snort a line over. i'm just relaying what the grid has. it could be white rain just as well. but that's the coldest gridded thermal profile regarding that retrograding ccb i've seen to date. it's actually not even isothermal. 800 mb is -3c ... 900 is 0c and the bottom is +3c. shallow warmth and you can soak cotton balls at 37 .. 38 for non-accumulating ptype when the 900 and 800 average neg. fall rates can exceed melt rates at that chilly sfc reading

that 12z nam fous grid is wet snow at Logan to almost 1” qpf sat morning