Typhoon Tip

yeah ..this effort turned out useful for up north. we're also getting some interesting top down dynamics cooling and ivt cat paws going over to snow down here, too. interesting..

either the atmosphere or the models are running just a spectacular experiment in maintaining a lit match next to glycerine without ever detonating anything. this aspect you've noted, '..these runs aren't afraid to put out absolute bombs...' ? that's just the experiment like accidentally failing for a second, and said potential tunneling through the block of all COC blocks... i realize i've admonished the troubles with fast hemispheres over the last decade, probably ad naseum for a few users, but ...mm, i'm not sure that is all that is causing this exotic potential to just exist indefinitely - therefore, i'm inclined to think the models are the problem ( thus ...) but pure supposition. and that's slim solace until storm actually manifests. which ever it is, it just seems it should be physically impossible to sustain what is actually fucking sustaining so something probably should break. weird. it is about as baffling as those 955 mb lows are extreme -

more impressed frankly that the main players are still identifiable through the frames … so as at least for the mean time, decent continuity considering range

heh … more likely warm seclusion but yeah. this is still precariously close to a similar 18z … just missed capture by a little

N/stream backed way off. still involved but slips the phase on this rendition.

Lol heard about thru the grapevine

Thanks… Yeah, these are interesting result comparisons but this isn’t ultimately what I was discussing. I was focused on modeling history and what was the most wholesale mechanically powerful thing ever modeled? I completely forgot about the superstorm of 93 though - I’m not sure that got this deep though. Nor did it have heights cord out quite as deep as what this is

This is going to sound rather bunnable , but just bear with me for a moment… the operational version has been wildly oscillating between a complete ghost, to these upper tier manic solutions and that’s supposed to be the higher resolution souped up variant of the ensemble system. in other words more stable. firstly, considering we’re beyond 200 hours there is no real responsibility to accuracy here to be fair. still, the wild variability of the operational version does not lend very much confidence that the ensemble system knows what the fuck is going on out there either frankly that goes for all models at present time.. the only confidence inspiring aspect as far as i’m concerned is still the intense signal beacon that’s been looming between the eighth and the 12th of the month for so long - confident if at least a favorable time in that sense. it’s just that when you pop off at giant solution like this in the middle of a strong probability region of time … should at least take notice.

Yeah, I thought about that storm; but this one surpasses that as modeled. I’m not really sure about the actual DP/dt of the Cleveland superbomb - that’s like some kind of buried ultra nerd data fantasy vital scoring. I guess I could search for awhile … but I’m speaking specifically to the model governing parametrics in the wholesales synopsis across the continent. I’ve never seen such a massive SPV plumbed deeper than 500 dam - executing such a high proficiency subsuming scenario on top of it is really in totality just beyond the extraordinary. it’s really just for ogling model potentials tho … doubt very much that will pass the reality test.

it's not a point of analysis because anyone thinks that run is happening - we've already stated it's unlikely. .. . but, what i said is right - that low, in that depiction, produces a pan-dimensional, very high end wind problem.

won't load for me. but maybe yeah. i mean it's not a challenge - i really don't know

huh? kidding right? you can't take a 971 mb low 20 mi s of montauk point, drop it another 20 mb and stall it over nashua nh before resuming a motion ne without the entire surrounding planetary atmospheric mass denisity collapsing into that pressure well like st helen's landslide... not without a crippling grid reconstruction requirement. decapitating trees. roofs sent along like a frisbee show doing skipping tricks.

i seriously can't find anything like that in history... i wonder if there's ever been anything like that in 'model history'

i know - that was not intended to say it's category 5 equivalence.. but those kind of d(p) are more common with extraordinary events, principle

pivotal's depiction is 971 to 951 in 6 hours...so that's 40 mb in 12 hours. that's competing with a few of these cat 5 hurricane observed ri events as of late. - just a little perspective

yeah ..that too. snow isn't really a part of that solution for sne

i'm wondering if there's a historical catalogue of actual model runs ? i suspect if there ever is/were, this is among the very most extraordinary, if not the goat, virtual prognostic from an operational/purposeful geophysical processing. closed sub-500 dm mid level heights by a couple of contours s, of nyc latitude, as a result of 90 deg neg tilting ? really that's a scenario where any hyperbole is can't be dismissed as merely such. okay, i get it but responsible thinking is that most of civility can't heat their homes without electricity - either direct use, or a peripheral to thermal generation. i suspect most in here have alternate options but ... mm maybe try for some empathy or at least acknowledgement as to how one purports themself. just a suggestion - it's about all i'm going to say on this. the model run has limited chance for being realized as the wholesale synoptic manifold of parametrics, in time, strains too much credibility. if we take 1/2 of the ghosted solutions earlier, and average them against this one...that's likely closer to the reality - which would be a major if so..so no loss there.

this will probably not resonate with anyone but ... you don't want this. trust me. you don't.

'legendary model run' in any case. ...i could see at 190 or so hours that this was big trouble solution incoming... snow aside, that's causing regional scale problems for the whole spectrum

i guess one school of though ... apply the 30% reduction rule on model magnification and this may be possible on earth. jesus christ.

get your affairs in order

it's too overwhelmingly powerful - probably a ceiling depiction here. physical phantom. as is, it'd take any coastal low and drive in nw into ontario so hard that sands the apps down to plain with that fucking beast of quasar (258)

massive changes on the 18z gfs wrt the 10th-ish potential thru 220 hrs

right not attempting to condemn naos hahaha. no, i mean what you're saying - yeah one has to nuance the field and it's highly circumstantial. if a nuetral pna is in play you don't want -2 sd nao over the western limb, or your bomb axis is va beach. if you got a +pna, lift the nao in latitude so you have some up-under spacing. there's millions of these ... snow flakes of these different relative strengths between competing mass fields. i've often thought there's like intervals in music with the nao. ( oh jesus - ) ... the 3rd and 5th tones of the octave are harmonic. so, you want a '3' pna and a '5' nao, say - metaphorically speaking. but you can't have a 3 pna and a diminished 7 or it sounds like the charts smell: shitty

anyway ... despite my commiserating over the last hour, that's all it is. just empathizing with how i'm sure the jaded spirits cry out in pain. haha. in the more here and now terms, we're talking about injecting a wave space into an arena that is ostensibly controlled by an nao that ( whoops) hasn't even materialized yet - neither has. the nao, or the former wave inject. to reiterate, nao's are notoriously handled badly beyond d6 or 7 - that's in general... they're modulating details such as how much specific suppression ( or not ...), is all but idiosyncratic and cannot really be assessed at this range using anything other than the quantum computing cores that are ... 10 years or something from coming online. those will eventually be the next major step forward in deterministic meteorology - beyond which ... provided tech keeps evolving and humanity is still around, the "weather modification grid" finaly comes on line and all of this is rendered completely futile to even engage in the pastime - heh. my official position on the 6/7th is 'guarded pessimism' - which means i lean less, but am far from sold that the nao doesn't back stab the 7 day forecast, ...like that's never happened before