Typhoon Tip

Not that anyone needs to this said but ... not likely to last. But more so than just that, every global indicator there's a definition for is signaling warmth for mid month.

It's interesting how we're coming at this from two different interest areas... I was mentioning in the Aug thread ( I think ) yesterday that Friday might have about a 9 hour window of Bahama Blue atmosphere ... having been hoisted N around the E side of Debra's soul. I always thought that an impressive transport phenomenon

It's kind of an ugly pattern out there, huh. Sky aside though, the temperatures today are amazing! There's not enough impetus from that Canada to Maritime synopsis to really push the boundary S and clear us out. Meanwhile, WAR imposes ... this is causing a stationary cloud/ instability pooling that's wrung out for rain but is just sitting around now. So we wait on a trough amplitude to settle into the serm-permanent Cleveland nadir which pulls the the remnant smear of Debra N ...wee. exciting. I guess if we can boot-leg a couple of BN days out of this mess it's a nice reprieve from our new southern NJ summers

yeah... MDR yes threat here, lesser likely than even the low odds climo from this time range. not without a wholesale index change

My evil plan to activate the MDR next week is coming to fruition in the models ... muah hahaha

Heat burst synoptics at very high latitude

low stratospheric warming projection huh

I dunno if this going to hold up to any kind of attribution review ... but, it sure smells like it. Apparently a glacial ice failure sent the contents of a held back lake bursting. I'm also not up to speed on Juneau's recent travails. Apparently they've endured flooding recently, already. Unsure if it is related. So there's much here I don't know about Juneau .. However, anytime I read or hear about glacial lake releasing, that's usually related to CC in geologic history - regardless of scale.

Bahama blues ...but yup. lol

Looks like about 6 to 9 hour true Bahaman air mass transport... The models seem to be congealing around this boundary rocketing back N on Fri

You wonder ( ...or imagine as a big bunner lol - ) if there's discussion down at FEMA over whether to pull the general evac trigger and start the diaspora out of the valleys.

I can just make out an acceleration of an undercut murk density into NE CT tho - you're right ( looking at sat ) elsewhere, but I wonder if this starts "BDing"

Not unusual in the winter. Don't know about summer though in a situation like this.

Bit experimental but ... There is low frequency signal for -AAM toward mid month. This correlates to strengthening of Hadley cell components ... one of which is subtropical ridge robustness coming along with it. But, this is good news for 'tropical event enthusiasts' as it creates a conducive environment; anticipating less shear at lower latitudes ( underneath the canonical nodes). Thus, with easterlies tending to improve, a general lowering of TW to environment relative shear would be logical. I saw that and wondered what the MJO is up to. Nice, "...• MJO activity entering the Indian Ocean favors increased tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic basin, with activity becoming more suppressed over the West Pacific and East Pacific..." It's like winning the lottery there a little bit ... you create a globally improved probability, then ...within that realm, the wave happens to time better for the Atlantic Basin. By the way, this shows up somewhat in the telecon spreads as well. The EPO is abruptly rising from -1 to +.5 or +1 SD by the 12th of the month. At that time, the PNA has collapsed toward neutral-negative, while the NAO is bouncing around between 0 and +1 SD. These projections have also been stable in the guidance outlooks for the last week. Despite the mid warm season correlation weakness ... this is still also a low frequency signal for less N-S orientation and more W-E structures, favoring ridge expansion. I'm sort of getting OT for tropical talk at this point ... but a warm signal is actually better for MDR correlation, because this limits the early extraction from the tropics in lieu of keeping activity moving W, longer; thus, improving odds of having to said events actually take place where the 'tropical event enthusiast' wants them happening. heh Anyway, in short, I can see why the MDR is entering another > probability period ( not just because its August, wise ass) without the MJO consideration, but having the UVM tendencies et al passing over the domain ... I like the mid month for genesis.

Yeah, an AMOC 'break down' ( or redistribution/morphology plausibility ) is less a cold "offset" factorization for the eastern American continent/Maritime of Canada, unfortunately. It's more so for NW Europe. We're still constrained by actual Meteorology of the atmosphere, which by geophysical constraint will always be a W --> E orienting corrections. This is part in parcel ( as an aside ...) to why the over-promotion of the NAO's influence, that precipitated out of the 1990's boon time for index identities ..., ( which still to this day lives on), hasn't been very well supported. The NAO is really an indirect result of wave decay frequencies relaying downstream the Pacific ... Perhaps more accurate just to say, 'whatever is west of its domain'. It's the non-linear residue down stream of the PNA ( to some degree related to the EPO ) - these latter are the real primary loaders for pattern forcing --> precipitation and temperature anomaly distributions across North America. If they are in a particular mode, than a (+) (-) NAO will emerge with some time lag application. This gives the illusion ( perhaps ..) that a given mode of the NAO was driving those biases, particularly over the eastern continental mid latitudes, ... but the NAO was/is actually a parallel result. It has its usefulness as a 'shaky' signal, but it is not a driver - the drive was/is always upstream. In fact, the NAO is far more objectively observed to occur post storm/amplitude changes between Chicago and Washington D.C.. Also, the 'hockey stick' euphemism for describing the recent curve of CC is a global distinction. Obviousness incoming here: pure numerical weighting the entire planetary average would absorb. Conceptually, there is no integrated way the N. Atlantic/AMOC dictates the longer term planetary state. It's a transient consequence over the course of a wholesale destination; it has impact over a much smaller geographical area relative to the whole.

spent some time analyzing this thing this morning ... Of the Can/Eur/USA, I'd trust the GFS the least

No shit. Oh k.... so "HFD" on the climo site is actually BDL ? yeah, I guess - just like Logan represents the temperature for "Boston". got it

It looks like there's some tendency there to evolve a heavier rain event whether Debra holds identity or not ... in fact there's a lot of synoptic argument there for D to get smeared along the ambient summer front like meat ground road kill.

I know what's your getting at and don't disagree at a granular level but there are ways in which -PNA/+NAO becomes a problem from the Great Lakes to the upper mid Atlantic and New E regions. The simplest way to describe that model is an episodic retrograde of a NW-SE Canadian deep layer conveyor, one that sets up around a big eastern Canadian SPV, which becomes a positive NAO derivative. But importantly, that sets stage with presage cold loading, prior to RNA sending impulses E ... Storms are flat wave over-runners. +EPO ... yeah, that's a tougher sell.

The most destructive event in Earth's history to ever occur may turn out to be the advent of human innovation -

It's 15 minutes N at 70 mph, ninny. That's like 16 miles and plenty enough distant to be quantified or qualified apart considering all the nuances that go into validating temperatures

echo this... ... by the way, at the end of all arguments there's this: no point in geological history has there been as an abrupt d(ppm) in C02, and the closest there has been, preceded the greatest extinction event ever, reducing all biota down to bacteria. So yeah.. "I hate to doom say" ... while countless others are oblivious to those facts, yet take the power of rationalizing. It's not denying... Denying requires knowing something first. This is just flat populism jumping on a band wagon none of these fucks or the ballast of all people even know that kind of stuff. Like ...gee, dumping 1.5 billion year's of volatile chemistry stows, back into a reactive atmosphere, in just 300 year's worth of industrialism: taht won't lead us to a similar destination. Let's totally gamble that! Sorry

I think - tho won't put words in his posts - he meant HFD/ORH/PVD/BOS ... those being the "4 major"

Doesn't appear to be so, no. But, all 4 were on average +9 on two consecutive days prior to yesterday. Yesterday ended up around 87 to 89 type maxes, but ( as usual ) because lows are always elevated these days ... the dep is still hefty. in other words, it doesn't matter. we broil. tomorrow looks like it'll be above 90 again after today's odd reprieve, one that looks really more like convective offset cooling and not a synoptic air out.