Typhoon Tip

How is 'extent' vs 'area' defined ?

You need to George Costanza the weather for awhile. Ignore it ... and she'll come to you -

Looks like the areal coverage is shrinking now ... but I'm pretty well convinced that this was in part neg feedback from smoke layering/ inhibiting insolation causing delay.

Meh... August wasn't likely going to finish at +11 A correction of some sort was probably academic.

I'm wondering if the smoke is dense enough to delay the fog/strata erosion. The saturating of the lower levels by the MCS late yesterday is now a solid blanket at 1200' or so, but at the same time ... high res vis imagery reveals that the smoke, particularly bad this morning, is overriding this lower level cloud deck. Typically, the edges of this kind of nocturnal cloud response would already be eroding but it's not. Interesting feedback phenomenon, possibly.

pretty dramatic cold pool outflow from that Nashua cluster just through here. less than severe, but close ..est 45 mph tree top whips. we were sideswiped on whole.

ml lapse rates for a win here man, turrets are extending the sounding in like a 2 minutes. wow

somewhat of an odd anomaly pressing slowly S through east-central NE. It almost reminds me of one of those April/-NAO deals where you getting backing from a stalled Maritime spring stunter low. 'Cept the NAO isn't negative and there's no low up there. still, the pattern retrogrades and is nosed by this showery thunder there

yup...on opening day, 2025

Amazing that it’s gonna snow in 2 months

Right, so the year can't be above normal the rest of the way ... lol

yeah not surprised that you and 'csnavywx' have also taken note of this. the summer AO basal teleconnector state has clearly been positive. in the canonical sense that's correlated better to ice retention ... not loss. it's pretty clearly 'threshold challenging' in my mind. behavior not matching clad inference that is based upon dense sampling history should be a red flag in every discipline of reality for that matter. lol seriously though -

Operational models trying to pick up on Scott's month ending heat. Has that late August tired sun heat wave look in some of the runs. It'd be 96 in July, but only 90 with shadows starting to slope. GGEM most aggressive and plumes an actual S. heat release by D9 ... Euro doesn't have that even by D10 of the 00z. GFS doesn't either, but it's got a pretty big heat signal in the gaga range right after that.

there's been a regional/general -1 lifted index layout for today and tomorrow.

Senses like people are dancing around using model uncertainty to perpetuate their dopamine drip. But, using the old school performance expectation - the models are WAY better than they were even 10 years ago. In fact, it's not a descriptive leap to suggest there's been a kind of 'hockey stick' upgrade in performance since 2010. This seems to have coincided with better tropical sounding density, improved theoretical physical processing, and sweeping upgrades in computational speeds ... In other words, it's no accident or luck - "modeling" has demonstrated that there's more confidence/narrowed 'cone of uncertainty' widths at D5 by a considerable improvement comparing the aughts of this century. SO, ...when the TC in question isn't coming to ring your doorbell, and the pattern surrounding is also less than conducive to that visitation ... we really can't justify holding out as much hope because we've got D5 to 7 to work with. Typically ...this kind of observation/op ed statement above will be summarily read as an absolute door slam, nope can't happen extremeness of intent... Which is also bad reading comprehension. I'm merely saying that you have to slide your expectations more toward trusting the D5 pattern ( withing which the TC is geophysical btw - ) more than you used to, and less toward getting a little addictive fix that there is just as much chance the next run will be the full crack-rock. lol... because, the "chances" are not like they were is previous generation.

Is there another platform to access? X is douchy these days about non-members, a typical tactic by the greed of billionaires. ... cuz, they don't have enough money, anyway -right

Maybe yeah Both the AO and NAO are hanging out positive out to the edge of the runs. Meanwhile, the EPO is trying to do a little negative burst there… This time of year with a short wavelength that should mean dropping heights through the Rockies, which obviously would transmit the rising connector over the E continent. That oughta go ahead and shunt all tropical activity from ever getting to the East Coast nah nah nah-nah nah

An aspect I noticed about this season along these prior months is that it's seemed like low frequency TW - or maybe the coherence is just low. But it's been like low motility counts. lol Having said that, running the models out in time from this point forward, ...there are 3 to 5 identifiable waves emerging from Africa down there so perhaps the MDR will light up for a while. The MJO desks/publication suggests both that to go along with the obvious climo.

I would go further and say that the protohominin leap in intelligence required that for survival. Physically, our brains become expensive ( except for Kevin ... ) and hat expense required trading brawn - think of a new born calf in the plains of Africa: within hours, runs as fast as the parents to escape predation. Human can never do that ... We are not born 70 .. 80 .. 90% ready for the Darwinian war. We are helpless. Thus, our advantage arrived through cooperation among a community's members living in vital recognition of one another - love and appreciation and the broader spectrum of intangible intelligence came along in that era. This sheltered and allowed our brains the time it takes to mature to adulthood; which in totality also takes much, much longer. But, long before we ever reach adulthood we are already conceptualizing aspects that no other animal on this planet is capable to doing. The requirement of social intelligence was quite likely, much deeper ingrained as an instinctual imperative, one that even psychobabble -sciences I sometimes question whether they 'get it'. What the advantages of the 'industrial bubble' (modern tech and 'blue screen' is just a part of the bigger picture) is doing is isolating human beings. Disconnecting that deeper rooted codependent sense of belonging that always kept the pack vital. It really is an evolutionary gate ( I believe ...). We are living in a leap era. I believe that. The last 200 years since the Industrial Revolution have been both quantitative and qualitatively transformative, more so than the previous 200,000 years. 200 ... 200,000. The human socio-technological experiment.

I’m no sociologist but agreed … Ive been railing OTs about this subject matter for years. There is a lot of codified science about the dimming of the intellectual pool, both in higher mental functions as well as the moral and virtuosity aspects of the total cerebral spectrum … do to “blue light” exposure Humanity is passing thru a great socio-technological experiment at an evolutionary scale

It's gonna do that willingness often through Feb 15 ...then, when the sun starts coming back next spring ... ignore said sun and keep doing that before admitting for 20 minutes toward the end of next June that it's actually summer. Struggling to admit that circumstantial reality ... it labors thru July and then next August, weiner runs start pumpin' out all over again

It's hypothesis but, I'm curious whether the reduction in sulfur emissions, 2023, may be related. Sulfur is tricky. It's more like an indirect greenhouse gas by effecting reactions with those compounds that are more or less efficient GH. But it's complex, because stand alone, it is both effecting warming by direct absorption, but also cools for reflecting sun light in clouds. Those latter capacities are not constant either. There are circumstances when d(more or less) LWR is being absorbed, and d(more or less) sun is being reflected. We know sulfur in the stratosphere is a solar reflector, but sulfur in the troposphere... particularly below mid levels, I "think" is both reflecting in cloud droplets, and absorber when in free air. In either case, the rather abrupt abeyance of emissions - if measured to be effectively significant enough - might move the EEI numbers.

Another night of perfectly average lows around here. Nice 57 High is projected to be average-ish. which together with low RH and purity of sky makes for a top 10er day in mid August.

tropical storm, eh

When you cross up the idea of Chamber Of Commerce air quality control environments with the awe-inspiring intelligentsia of the cackling plebeian user state ...