Typhoon Tip

yeah, i'm read/heard. probably should've wrote 'considering' instead of 'figuring'

yeah gotta admit for those seeking entertainment distractions by the weather arm of natural wonders, your wrestling with a paraplegic when looking over that modeling cinema. ooph every time the models start leaning warm departures ...they yaw the entire hemisphere into an early autumn. then, yaw back the other way. reality being something in between is about as uninspiring as a dynamic realm the size of a whole planet is physically capable of dulling our senses with. and every time those oscillations happen, the posts by the respective warm vs cool season enthusiasts hang their trophies from the other side's taint hairs. better things to do than spectator that nimroddery. but unless the tropics gin up something even fractionally as impressive as the social-media's heretofore bundemental skill's prediction for this season, this is why 2nd to april, the two times of the year can be quite the slog

pick a model ...they've been off and on showing at least a 'dent' in the itcz pressure layouts suggesting at least tw's in that range. some have even identified by the 2nd or 3rd i maintain, not sal, not aggregated shear stress ...not some fantasy sudden collapse of the tropical atlantic ssts ... the primary reason for the lack of development has been very spatial. it's the low motility of tws. hard to make babies with tail-less spermies

it appears that early august period of time, back in 2012, is whence something happened ... something took place, however unique/rare, that triggered an ensuing deeper nadir than fore or aft years. that outlier could be telling. figuring out precisely why might be useful. heh outlier to this sample size, for one. which may or may not be an important distinction. i don't think it is less important tho, personally. it happened once. it can happen again. trope, but unfortunately apropos. and if/when that happens, the next time it will have the melt-advantage of doing so after an aggregated acceleration from 2012 to 2025's worth of CC. ... well, it's rather intuitive to see where that goes. to spell it out, an abrupt 'fall off' - probably another 'leap year' that both surpasses 2012's scalar depth, but a greater delta wrt that local 10-year running average. not to be a monger of peril or anything, but the fact of reality is, we are experience and observing more and more synergistic events in the objective reality of earth - those that surpass leading indicators/predictions. we could just as well be seeing a suppression of absolute 'melt capacitance' by fortuitous circulation modes ... and just not be aware of it (despite everything that is known). when those 'lucky' offets break down or even reverse some future year, you get an over compensating rebound. seems pretty obvious

i've lamented at length ( no kidding! ) about a similar concern over the ancient pages of the thoughts on climate change thread ... this aerosol modulation [possibly .. but who are we kidding - ] directly contributing to a reduction in cloud materialization --> d(E budget ) has, to me, unwittingly provided a very good experimental opportunity. the results of which proves my point. and by extension, argues for why as a terraforming-capable species we need to be very careful in how it is we back away from the erstwhile forcing our activity has and continues to contribute. think alcoholic entering detox: the last thing the medical staff would ever do to a hopelessly addicted, liver cirrhotic, physiologically chemical dependent patient is abruptly cut off the patient's access to alcohol. the patient is obviously the metaphor here; not to be taken in the literal sense. the point being, there are background processes that unless all are known, we're flying blind into a vast realm of cause-and-effects that can if not likely will lead to abrupt, unwanted responses. some of these are non-linear, too. synergistic heat waves that over perform over leading guidance indicators, and the predictive assessments of humans that observe those indicators, is just one example of non-linear feed-backs causing a bigger response than anticipated. but longer terms ... life itself, in the seas and land, and how et al have been adapting ( or struggling to; some are not making it!) may not be able to 'turn off' their offsetting defenses to climate change. taking the world back to pre-industry too abruptly could have dire consequences. yet, that antiquated state of affairs, where human activity wasn't nearly so capable of playing blind god with the world, appears now to be an imperative. our father, who art in heaven ... bestowith upon us the rights to access the power of the cosmos. i'll tell you, from my op ed position ( a little rhetorical fun here...) when humanity sold its soul to technology 250 years ago, we unwittingly also slaved our dependency to technology as our savior - salvation from the results of technology. now that's an interesting predicament ... hints at a Fermi Paradox explanation ( for those privy to that stuff). as in, too few alien worlds got past this 'discovery of dad's gun' stage of their own evolution. in the contest of earth's greatest destructive forces to have ever afflicted, human innovation may turn out to be the prohibitive favorite. maybe the greatest enemy of evolution turns out to be evolution itself.

this whole event biased over the western edge of the watch area

my guess is not much prior to these last 24 hour trends but don't quote that

looks to me like warmth is trying to make a com back during sep 1 to 10 range. these things aren't often very coherent. have to be look for subtleties that by definition are not easily always seen.

what about it do you disagree with ? that's not below normal. that's a 50-60% chance of being below normal. which is what you basically just intimated -

i might uv read somewhere there's a neg correlation between the eastern pac and atl basin it would fit as the e pac has been ensemble lining lately

wouldn't have thunk so and it's obviously the nam and all that but the model's bringing biggest heat since late june in the fous grid hydrostats approaching or at 580 dm is impressive at any time of year 54000684918 -0195 102220 78272417 54000634818 -1096 142213 78282416 60000746366 -4391 112615 77282215 60000595315 07192 122314 80312518

upgraded tomorrow to slgt rotated dial type sev potential.

it's probably more a semantics -related discussion but 'hyperactive' is/was too heavy, which ever came first why not just say above average? i would argue that 'hyper' is fleeting arleady. commented on this a while ago today but sep's unlikely to exceed 6 tcs for a single month's production - just looking at all historically active months, to do so is rare but even if there were 7 or 8 we'd have to do that again in october, and then above normal novie for hyperactive to be a qualitative description for 2024.

it's not really relevant to me. being ahead or behind in ace right now as of aug 25 2024 ... not sure what that has to do with failing expectation number of tcs. a better performance up to this point then ace would likely be even bigger than now. ace being bigger than climate because of two systems doesn't diminish the failure in the other sense as to where we're going with this season first of all, who or what source pre characterized this season as 'hyperactive' ? i only read above normal. i'm just wondering if the social media mill's been bunning this season. if it came from some traditional or formally accepted and proven source than shame on them - that's an irresponsible attempt. that said, we've seen flurries of activity in sep of the past. however, the two bigger seasons that at least i can remember, 1995 and 2005 they did seem to 'head start' by virtue of having actual tcs by now. granted. just experience and some knowledge about how this shit works... i don't believe getting more than 6 maybe 8 track-able events out of a single month is very likely. i agree the clock ticks. i think a better metaphor, than comparing apple ace to orange ace, ... is like being completely eligible and wanting to create a family but you're 55

except that ncep's managed to create a model that's consummately doing whatever it can to get there in the winter and summer

that type of heat fails in a euro esque evolution theres no way heat makes it n-e of nyc with a large polar high rolling over to our n like that. shunt job big time and prior to that mon-wed the deep heat's not here yet.

these'll probably go on to roller coaster the autumn ... dipping to near cryo and then soaring to 80 at week's range, clear into novie. this, i suspect, is related/causal i why these october snow chances have become all but common in recent decade(s) heh..every time it snows across the bow air mass, we get this optimism bi-polarism that slams shut when it's 77.8 F 3 days later.

yeah i know ... was just doubling down on the cynicism and how no matter who it is, humans are subjective

because human beings create models, and human beings are more or less influenced ( but always are some way, some how ...) by the existential connection to their sensible surroundings. lot of words to say ... cold and snow is their primary ongoing risks ( or used to be ...) so some how, some way, that influences the way they construct their environmental tooling that is charged with the responsibility of predicting threats. it's not a directive ... more of an indirect bias, hugely subtle.

no shit -

wow man what an incredible day out there 79/55 with no f'n smoke

i think it was a CC attributable meander... ( i can guarantee there is a misconception that attribution is limited to those circumstances that make for dystopian headlines ... but the insidious nature is that it's probably taking place in subtler ways more so than not - albeit unknowable to common experience, and even some of these PHD clowns) there's an interesting paper about this out there where meanders are shown, using climate modeling/super computing, toting cold to mid latitudes at varying scales. they are causing huge temperature variations across relatively short time spans ( intra seasonally..). this strikes me pretty clearly as relatable to all that - ultimately oblivious due to the non-injurious nature.

it probably was ... in most cases ... the warm inflow tends to be on the right side of the storm path, such that the updraft preferentially seeks that sources once the segregation of updraft and downdraft is taking place. as the storm operates in perpetuity, it biases the continuous development in whatever direction is supplying the instability. it's just that there are other forces also concurrent with those mechanics, and the totality of the storm motion will be an average of all that contributes - this more and less obscures matters

weirdly coincidental .. this BBC article surfaces https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240820-why-category-1-hurricane-ernesto-is-still-dangerous?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us