Typhoon Tip

no shit... how much is smoking claiming temps - ooh!

yeah, was asking about this yesterday .. with the HRRR stuff etc ... So far we're ahead of yesterday in T recovery by 4 ( 64 vs 60) by hour::minute. We didn't bottom out quite as deep. 54 here. I realize others came in at or just under 50 but by and large these readings were above the previous night's lows. The higher launch may be skewing/hiding if there is any smoke-induced lag so hard to quantify -

We have a lot of mosquitoes out of nowhere this evening. Lot of atonal ear chorus if you venture out … Our town has a policy now where they won’t spray unless you request - some environmental initiative? Used to be they automatically rolled the fogger trucks. I’ve always been on the fence about it. I mean I’m about as environmentally high handed as they come but only eclipsed by my hatred for those motherfuckin mosquitoes! It’s always a tug o war but then my reticence to pull the trigger and make the call was ended when I’d hear the hiss as it went - some kind of weird rationalization that at least I didn’t make the decision lol So … the old guy at the end of the street succumbed to his cancer (sadly) earlier this spring … I suspect with him went the phone call requesting for our neighborhood. He was a smoker up to the end. I don’t think it was the pesticide heh

Overall that was a damn warm GFS run at 500mb. even weakens that trough out there. Brings the heat wave Scott and I were talking about for the 12

82 here now... 45 to 82 Dp is 40

For 18z Saturday, Euro left ... GFS right

mm hm https://phys.org/news/2025-06-wildfire-hazy-skies-massachusetts-air.html

Pretty dense band of smoke over the eastern Lakes/upstate NY. We appear circumstantially protected for now but I’m wondering if that may get involved tomorrow …

That’s what I’m wondering … if/when the temp correlates. Maybe even how the particle physics works in that, but keeping it simple. … which circumstantially would also have dependency on accuracy for where the plumes will be located/density in time ….

does anyone have any insight/knowledge into specifically modeling accuracy for smoke ?

Heh 25 deg rise and it's only 9 and change. impressive 45 to 70

yeeee up

man, we've been really lucky dodging the smoke... It's still curving around this trough that won't die this morning looking at vis loops.

next heat signal ..maybe the 11-13th

Looks like verrry subtly there's a tendency there to weaken the whole weekend morass too - maybe that'll continue and it'll deconstruct into just daily convection around a dying front. Sunday still looks good - seems to be the models are still spraying solutions wrt Saturday. The flow is weak/forcing is weak, so the model physics get more chaotic Before then ...looks like one of those 89.4/91/89.5 type of "heat wave". First truly elevated DPs though. Even if T's hold to the mid 80s a DP above 65, that is a circumstance no one in NE that hasn't traveled has experienced since last summer.

Yeah go team save Scott’s sanity. Ha

18 ZGFS looks pretty good for Saturday …has the front pounding PF’s butt but it’s warm sector southeast of there

I guess any time you got a Packman low eating its way down a warm front you can gets some repeaters ... yeah maybe

ha ... I didn't mean to imply I thought it looked that way either - I was asking if you personal attitude would improve if the drama in severe were added back ... I'm guessin' yes?

how about if it's training severe ... nickle hail 3 times with incredible rain rates and overlapping multi-pulser CG bombs ...otherwise still 76/72-like

I've come to find that the error goes in both directions ... They'll error too high on the regional totals ( actually), while down to a handful of towns and counties get Leominstered Over did the synoptics, but under did the local thunderstorm - but since the latter is inside the regional bounded area, it falsely props up the regional result. So two wrongs does make a right -

https://phys.org/news/2025-06-spain-highest-temperature.html https://phys.org/news/2025-06-uk-registers-warmest-weather.html

Good song

Heh... despite my conservative tone this morning - which I still suspect is warranted - the NAM arrives with a 90 F at least implicated in the FOUS grid 54000492730 -2403 212012 71261912 I don't expect anyone to know what these numerics are supposed mean - mainly because I've written, with pain staking detail, what those definitions are at least 20 times ( ). Anyway, that profile for 18z on Wednesday would 89 to 91 over down town streets and parking lots...ranging to 82 or 84 where the hill people down play heat. sarcasm aside ...I'm not sure the NAM physics has smoke contamination built in ? maybe Brian or someone knows.