Typhoon Tip

well ... if 'off season' and thus 'caught off guard' is going to be invoked as partial in the why-for so many deaths/casualties then cc-attribution science is gonna have a field day with this

this was also apparently so in the copernicus source: "Scientists say with a cooling La Niña instead of last year's El Niño, 2025 is likely to be not quite as hot as 2024. Several predict it will turn out to be the third-warmest. However, the first six days of January—despite frigid temperatures in the U.S. East—averaged slightly warmer and are the hottest start to a year yet, according to Copernicus data...."

a lot of winter can happen after exiting the solar min, too -

post feb 10

3.5 weeks until exit solar min

good! at least one of us can

the buzz saw trough with all that compression is a negative interference factor though …

more personally interested in possible series of moderate events between d 6 and 11 now that the day’s PNA index derivatives came in with a nascent bump in the graphical trajectory.

“climate” is umm changing. heh. seriously though … it seems hard to qualify that date as such when it seems we’re getting year after years piling up where the ballast of weight in both scalar temps and in time … more so prior to that date? I mean I’m asking more that declaring anything

I mean Christ, these aerial vantages provided by 60 Minutes fly-overs are indistinguishable from the heat flash followed by p-wave percussion jolt off an atomic bomb blast It’s shocking similar to Hiroshima

what... no - this has been the case a few times.

what we have is conceptual support here. we're just ( if yet - ) are not producing anything from it, from any of the various ens systems. granted at this range ( 9+ days ...) it's not always the case that materialization has already taken place. big tier events, however, due tend to at least rsvp the longer lead outputs with something. the fact that we are not seeing more could also be flow compression. it relegates the storm types to timing and placement - Walt mentioned needle threading and yeah ...we've been talking about that in here for the last week yadda yadda.. so we agree with him on that. we're not likely to see a curler on the charts in this regime - hell, we actually had some blocking preceding today's near miss, and the speed of the flow still managed to snatch a loss out of the jaws of success. the other aspect i'm a little leery of is the -epo/-pna tandem. it's a risk for cutters... i've seen lots of scenarios where active b-c zones along or off the ec at this range end up back toward buffalo, and we end up in a s drizzle driver. on the fence though because that same velocity soaked hemisphere tends to argue back east with the dx stretching

heh ... nice look on the ggem for the 20/21st

i'm approaching that here 2.75" S-

what a f'ed up week with this thing this was.. turns out the pick 'em part of the thread's title was spot on 2" so far; 25 f

part of my issue with this synoptically in this new form/paradigm with this thread... that's a fairly cold parcel aloft with some vorticity shrapnel rattling around inside as in/stream trundles through. i could see some sneaking meso clumping going on with that.

personally ... their reasoning is sus to me a little. i mean, 2023 with the pan-dimensional thermal burst ...which apparently, never receded... actually took place pre- NINO/ENSO state... so, that tells me that whatever that was, was quite logically not really occurring because' of NINO - there may have been some back and forth augmentation/superposition thereafter, but the thermal burst buries NINO somewhere inside. if that is true, not sure NINA/ENSO is going to be so readily quantitative in the end results, either. this is just how this all looks logically, to me. i'm not sure what mathematics they use to come to the idea that NINO/ENSO's warming led to 2024 - but perhaps it's something like 2023 + (2023 + NINO) = 2024 so 2025 is 2023 + (2023 + NINO) - (2024 + NINA) ...

European and British calculations figure with a cooling La Niña instead of last year's warming El Niño, 2025 is likely to be not quite as hot as 2024. They predict it will turn out to be the third-warmest. However, the first six days of January—despite frigid temperatures in the U.S. East—averaged slightly warmer and are the hottest start to a year yet, according to Copernicus data.

with air so dry and the sun angle still very low ... the 42 won't result in that much actual snow melt, so the pack will ... oh, wait

yes .. because it's a -epo load preceding that amplitude ... which, that's really wobbly where the trough axis really ends up. could easily back up relative to the flow.

the wind chokes that quality off though - seein' as it was my euphemism. ha. no but it's close though.

yet the love for -naos clings on

you know what is funny-ironic about this image here ... when thinking back a week at those eye-popping raging bizzard model runs that of course are not destined to materialize, that region of bare ground in new england is just about cookie-cutter the negative exposure of the 24" of snow those original model runs had. reality becomes opposite of the model forecasts really. outstanding -

yeah, so 12z runs are biting on this idea even more. that's the ultimate needle threader for now but obviously that doesn't mean much yet

i'm not just concerned with the infrastructural losses - btw - in my concerns. fire moves fast, particularly when it is flamed along by very strong winds... but, it is still possible to not have mounting death tolls. when the ominous nature of forecasts were amply leading - it just wasn't heeded, or enough. that's part of the repeating theme in these disasters but you know, didn't we just have a malibu oddity like this. similar latitude. different cause at the discrete level, but in principle? ...not really different. you had +pp n of a pressure well after antecedent dry anomalies over an extended period. interesting a smell an attribution paper. heh