Typhoon Tip

what is meant by awful Pacific, tho - we just agreed that apparent compression/shearing/velocity soaking is taking place in both neg and pos pnas and regardless of epos. look, it's not the pacific. its the planetary medium. that's just it - sorry

i get it .. but my point was, when do we get the overrunning? 'cause multi- year result set sorta suggests not often enough to matter the flow compression means fast. everything speeds up. the basal flow rate. the waves themselves. everything has a shorter residence time in any given location. that also makes it difficult to stasis an overrunning scenario for very long, either. trying to get you to see that without my saying so - ha

ehhhh the compression has been persistent. it's been that way during +pna/-epo's too

again... why hasn't that happened in a decade ( if at all ..not often enough- ) there are also reasons fast flows won't support +PP/over top layouts and it's because the intra-pattern ( sub scaled timing ) don't persist along enough - or tend not to. the set ups are rolling out too fast

it's about limitation... compressing mediums means that there is less conserved at shorter wave lengths. this limits cyclogen mechanics like you say, but yeah ... if overrunning scenarios but those just don't set up that often. i see one of those legit per year and some years none. other years more frequent if pistol to head but how many overrunning deals have we had in the last decade? not sure but they weren't enough to commit to memory

i'm ad nauseum at this point having to see gfs charts that look like this ... ...i'm ready argue at this point that winter will under perform snow so long this flow compressed appeal predominates if one is objective in their imagination ... they might actually red flag this as a cc thing, too. because we need the cold, but we seem to not get the cold unless it is compressed. that's a smoking gun for having ambient resting heights too high prior to the arrival of he cold pattern.

hell we're getting that right now with this band out here. sun's orb is vaguely discernible while snow in the air at 20 f and whippy winds has the sfc vis down to 1.5 mi.

one upshot of a tacky capricious, imperialistic presumptive arrogance with this whole annex Greenland fuckery, is that if/and when the general trumpism idiocrasy finally defeats all intelligentsia of the wolrd... that will consequentially have meant removing the ice from the island, thus exposing the only invaluable piece of habitable land remaining in the scorched world - one that his 'brilliance' planned in order to save the top 1% ..

looking at the satellite motion this morning ...classic -nao back drill going on. even have some flurries with dim sun tundra sky

yeah... basically the 12z nam is like an empathetic king offering the dumpster to the plebes - anyway, the reason this system devolved over the last 4 days is really because of this, blw - Scott or someone also mentioned this a couple days ago ... which is in principle the same argument as the model(s) poor handling the western height/mass field orientation. it's been problematic all season thus far. for some reason, we are introducing new wave spaces that bully into guidance during mid range seemingly from nowhere, and then the flow accommodates their presence by f'ing up and interfering negatively whatever's going on over the eastern continent not that this NAM run is particularly gifted as a visionary per se ... but, that stream activity over us at this time above is actually gorgeous; there's just no way to slow the f'er down. that bully from the west, which of course does zero anything in the flow accept keep things dry and cold ..., just forced it's way into the lunch line and so the meal gets served down wind of us

that's sort of what i was getting at when bringing up quantum computing - it just seems intuitive that weather modeling would be hugely advanced to put it lightly. computation in classical computers is done by processing 0's and 1's, doing so at incomprehensible speed mind us. the fastest super computing in operations are on the order 10 to 9th power floating point computations per s. that's 1,000,000,000 executions per - yikes, right?! with all that speed, however ..., these classical computers use bits, 0 or 1, that can only be processed one at at ime. quantum computing on the other hand uses qubits that process the 0 and 1 simultaneously. processing made possible by a principle of quantum mechanics known as superposition ...etc ...[enter tl;dr here]. that's like taking that 1,000,000,000 ex/s above and improving it by so many orders of magnitude that comparing is like difference between conventional rocketry velocities vs speed of light travel.. i wonder if the initialization grid could benefit from that simultaneity ... to know the position and momentum in space and time of every particle in the atmosphere is still ultimately going limit weather modeling capabilities. it doesn't matter how fast the computation takes place, the initial state has to be clad - or ...at least correctable. that is where i wonder. it's like qc might preprocess the input grid for normalizing it so close to actual, that it's all but violating the uncertainty principle. then, run the models using that corrected domain as the input initialization. something like this 'sci fi' vision

Yeah that’s like the “transition versions”

yeah you're looking at a perfect example of how phasing fails when dx outpaces dy in the geometry of stream interactions in other words, the s/w are moving too fast ...it's been a problem in recent years.

i'm curious how the future of modeling is changed by the transformative quantum computing technology. intuitively it seems that weather modeling would hugely advance with that particular capability

actually never mind me ... i have a pounding head cold and hate everybody. i never should have gone to that game in gillete to watch the piece of shit patriots. 23f wind the whole time over a pointless game... by the time we were heading home i was already feelin it

yeeeah people believe that crap tho.

meh ...never said we were getting this event. the title of this thread is sufficient - i was pretty vocal actually about not liking the fact that the eps cluster was lacking, too. i even wrote in bold, whether it's impacts are confined to the mid Atlantic or becomes a I-95 coastal plain and near interior significant impact is still unclear.. i think there's some sort of association thing going on.

well ... if we're designing hope out of uncertainties like that, we may as well include that fact that the relay off the pacific is barely even started - there's a 'positive' chance there, in fact a reasonable one.

congratulations winter 2024-2025! While below-normal temperatures are forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. in the near-term, the strengthening MJO across the Indian Ocean historically favors a warm extratropical response over the U.S., and a pattern reversal toward warmer temperatures could begin toward the end of the month or in early February.

next series of data ingests will be sampling pac relay more properly if there's going to be a wholesale return ( probably to something less than those 964 blue baller solutions the gfs was hawk tuahing and more middling...) it may come tonight otherwise, the miami rule is wrong. and the western ridge is last minute torpid. and the nao is correcting down in the gefs derivatives - if anyone recalls, this thread's hopefuls were predicated on a rising nao ...hence, lifting the storm track up the ec. etc... and also, boy, ...the meridian characteristic of the flow has not been getting anywhere close to what these ensembles were selling a couple weeks ago. interesting...

aww perk up... at least after being charlie browned by the gfs' recency, it at least soothes your sore butts with this soon after

boy this is exactly why we love winter BOS//683805 -4416 023122 15918687 06000525706 -4618 023024 15938685 12000566313 -1212 063024 21948890 18000624514 01111 073022 20939090 24000633314 01713 072922 16918987 30000504003 -0212 032924 12958786 36000527207 00312 023024 13938688 42000577819 00611 003024 16918490 48000617623 -1908 003023 20909490 54000516423 -0508 983024 25959593 60000586017 00606 003126 28959794 60 straight hours of -9 C in desiccating nw winds gusting to 36 mph ...

looks like we're still in a pick 'em mode with this thing .. convincing trend or not from the Americans, the euro is now in the lead in this contest. i don't like the fact that 00z grid was just tickling pac wave mechanics over land out west in the initialization, and then the 00z op gfs charlie browns? despite the weight of it's ens mean/behavior over the previous 3 cycles - could it be that the gefs system is over assimilating west of the continent? kind of hints at that ... in any case, more of that relay will be happening moving forward so it may be something was missed. we're pretty much at 3.5 days for when stream interaction would take place, the 00z and 06z gfs showed a discerned backing off the amount of n/stream. also want to point out that the positive sloping s/stream has never really sat very well with me. forgot to mention that last night - we'll see

Potential for a very intense/rapid coastal detonation is gathering confidence... whether it's impacts are confined to the mid Atlantic or becomes a I-95 coastal plain and near interior significant impact is still unclear.. but I don't believe the EPS is likely to win this one when we are still outside it's wheelhouse of 4.5 days ( A), and (B) there's some arguments below that suggest it may be overcorrecting. I commented earlier in the day that the 12z GEFs was a coherent signal, more so over the previous, and that the spread was n-w. The 18z GEF means has in fact moved the mean toward the previous spread, ....and yet there's still a compact smearing of uncertainty spread still extending back toward the Cape and Islands. At 132 hours, there's some really deep solutions in that cluster ... on that is almost collocated with the spread from the previous 12z cycle on the left. This has been correcting + in the GEFs for 5 consecutive cycles, a time in which 3 out of the 5 oper. versions really favoring the phase side. We are less that 96-108 hours during critical stream interaction timing - I suspect the Euro turns around. I can see a theoretical pathway to explain why the EPS has been so flat. It's really in the handling of the larger mass field perturbation. The PNA is settling off in all the ensemble means, but not rapidly. In fact, there is a new +d(PNA) out around the 13th-17th ( not discussed here ); whereby it never really goes negative in the GEPs and GEFs. It does, however, in the Euro... by a small but possibly crucial amount, spiking to -.5 or like 2 days centered on the 12th. This puts it at odds with the GEFs and GEPs. The NAO is the interesting aspect. It is rising in the GEFs and GEPs, a small but crucially larger amount of than the EPS. Those nuanced 'giga' movements in the field would plausibly atone for the EPS family being a no show. This system has a very slim margin for error, with a simply fantastic ceiling on development potential very close to the said margin. It's because the southern stream is highly likely to exist; the northern stream is highly likely to exist. But, these idiosyncratic, non-linear feedbacks coming from the perturbations of the PNA vs the NAO, is placing this low on the positive side of the margin in the GEFs and GEPs, and on the negative side in the EPS. Also, the Euro employs the 4-d variables system which I suspect might offer some error in over correcting for the sagging PNA, with a lacking rise in the NAO - so suppressing to put is simply... The rise in the NAO that is just slightly pronounced by the GEFs and GEPs would be sufficient to exit latitude a cyclogen closer to LI than do east of the Va Capes... Part of the reason for starting this thread is ... for one, it probably should have been started - perception of usefulness withstanding - two days ago as an "experimental monitoring" effort. But I feel we'er leaning more deterministic now. There's other stuff in the deep range that is making the end of the month interesting, with strong -WPO/-EPO pacific circulation mode. ..etc and maybe this will help free up the Jester' thread for that debate