Typhoon Tip

interesting looking over the 97L ( destined to born 'Helene' ) on high res vis loop this morning. i'm not sure if it is just an illusion put on by the frame rate of the loop working with cloud morphology, but that circulation in the low levels is already faster than TD strength - it would be despite not yet having been upgraded..etc... but like i said, it could be a trick of morphology and the fact that the frame rate isn't exactly hd

i read speculation somewhere years ago that the antarctic gain in that graph, lasting some 10 years between 2005 and 2015, was actually a complex feed-back from warming mid latitudes ( at first ) creating more gradient as it encroached upon the polar vortex. that increased velocities, temporarily strengthening the circulation, and a rampart that stopped warm air intrusions from penetrating into the vortex interior - but as all this intuits, it would likely be transient. sort of an initial response, so to speak. i haven't read/heard of any follow-up but the recency since 2015 with fairly obvious declination along that curve might fit that idea.

don't discount a repeat performance of snow, or snow supporting synoptic potentials along and n of 40 n/ e of chicago mid oct to mid nov - having little or no correlative value to the ensuing winter, either.

just a brief op ed on this: i suspect the recent pattern of behavior in the cc monitoring, related to sudden movements, might be more than just noise. the en masse wholesale atmospheric t surge last year, is a sudden movement into a new registry for example ( also experienced amid the oceanic ssts in all direction, everywhere, at once). as an aside, that cannot be explained by enso. i find it far more likely that enso was just happening to decay around the same time... however, the global atm and sst warm burst took place prior to the change for several weeks. that doesn't fit. the big nadir in ice on 2012 was also a reset regime change in my mind. i don't disagree that arctic sea ice has been something like stable since then ... tending to bounce around the basement isn't very comforting given the back ground. but a 'spiraling' adjective isn't supported in the observations. in any case, i'll be monitoring the d(recovery) rate now that the sun's set over the geographical n pole

i was thinking about this yesterday as our saturday was being royally porked by this -nao circulation manifold ... (eastern ne) how these -nao's in autumn and spring have been notable in a lag of some 7 to 10 days, post warm anomalies that pervaded the great lakes/ov/ma/ne regions. this happened post those exotic warm ups that occurred in the februaries since 2015, where several of them recorded ... really quite absurdly warm temperature events ( rel to climo). -nao's materialized afterward. when it was 80 to 87 for some 10 days recently from d.c. to pwm - its not the same anomaly, but it was impressive enough. it's really more about the supporting pattern evolution one striking example of this was october 2011, when during the teens of that month it was routinely in the 70s in the I-95 corridor with attending ridging --> -nao a week later... the snow event(s) late that october indirectly related.

is it a 'heat wave' or more permanent - marine heatwave phenomenon have shelf lives. this is beginning to feel like something in the scaffolding of the planet do the weight of persistence - just supposition speaking. 2ndly, are we certain that the west pac is why seasons are not behaving : i understand the appeal of finding a silver bullet cause but i'm just as curious that the weird winter thing and the west pac may both be resulting and not necessarily causally linked like that.

this is nice. i wasn't admittedly expecting any sun today but ... we seem to be eroding out the mid and upper level deck with just some cu streets overhead. sat confirms this regionally, too - tho e and berks working on it

in fact not only what scott was saying but there's attempt there to park another warm ridge node over the the e mid latitudes

Okay ...yeah I remember that too. weird coastal it plunked down in the middle of an otherwise ridge was odd looking. now it's all but gone.. fits what i've been noticing about the erratic

what time range are you referring ? - not intending to 'defend' the euro here, but i've noticed that every model has been particularly bad in the mid+ range for a few days now, in this region: just curious cuz they've all been flip-flopping on placement of ridge and trough nodes in that nebular flow region below the appr polar branch, way more so than normal variability for d5-8 range.

oh we may as well be on a raft bobbing over the flemish cap with this seldom understood reality of marine micro climate here

60 was the high here ... spent the integral at 57

that really is amusingly calm out there in the mdr. here it is the apex climo or close to it, and huckleberry fin's raft could make it unscathed the entire thousands of miles across the basin ...during a season of predicted epicosity. never gets old! hahaha

we are getting so f'n screwed here in new england. christ it's warmer up in maine. this is three consecutive days where east of the berks and sw of maine has been targeted to host the entire planetary budget for offset cc. if it were not for sne, the world global average would be putting up another temperature surge -

the issue with species is that that deltas are happening at a faster rate of change than the adaptation rates. die -offs will commence well before the destiny of the temperatures are realized. autotrophic ( producer ) species are most fragile and foot food pyramids - ... academically, the latter become unstable and ultimately the collapse ecologies follow. mass extinctions

man ... smelling the air and watching the slaty gray sky race sw, it's an exact likeness to a spirit killing bd butt f'n

there's still 10 days left to muck up impressions of this particular september, though. this morass that's plaguing eastern areas ... marks the decay of that persistence we enjoyed over the last couple of weeks. not clear what the next 10 days will entail, but there's everything from fronts to tropical squirts up the coast, neither of which is being handled very well in guidance ... but all of which are definitely in the possible manifold of reasons to f'ing hate the shit out of this asshole month lol. ... speaking of which, plagued by this garbage the way we are, reminds me of april. albany 80, boston 62 with the harbor sharting right at civility like a roman god's cruelty is classically 'fair' distribution. hahaha

pretty solidly damning science/article here... https://phys.org/news/2024-09-earth-global-temperature-drastically-million.html i like this, ".. But greenhouse gas emissions caused by anthropogenic climate change are currently warming the planet at a much faster rate than even the fastest warming events of the Phanerozoic..." we just experience that global t burst last year... it seems entirely intuitive to me - if not likely ... - that the cc temperature curve of the future will feature more of these surges, rather than a cozy predictable and easily adaptive helpful change rate ( lol, but seriously - )

GFS won’t give up with the attempt at Sandy cousin if not redux

meanwhile ... i'm seeing a winter hemisphere characterized by something between a vestige and an out right rudimentary repeat of the last 6 or 7 of them so there it is. either a seasonal forecast write-up worthy of a dissertation submission, or that statement. to me, as long as either end up with that same principle, both score. lol

how come you don't work there now? - if it's not too personal

oz euro still insisting light rain plume penetrates west early tomorrow into the interior ... rotating sw. american models do not - although the nam hints at bvr/strata related moisture. albeit minor, it's an interesting model contest. actually the 06z euro's dry now so... chicken shit model won't play

yeah not a good sign for rain-wanters when the nam corrects s-e inside of 42 hours. particularly in the winter, that model's typically nw of all others ... then corrects s-e when in short terms - usually laughing at the storm wieners when it takes the rug and runs away. this thing looks like it's matching that corrective behavior regardless of it being 75 -80 f

given to the lack of activity to date causing non-dispersion, the ohc over the western caribbean/gulf routes are about as loaded as is physically possible - it's probably not a huge leap to hunch whatever develops down there might become an impressive concern to put it mildly. it's not just the ohc tho. ohc can be extreme - doesn't matter without the other circulation machinery. but that's changing... the erstwhile suppression i myself have suggested, appears to be at long last progressing away from the basin. take the lid off the pressure cooker? the 12z gfs is likely over-amplified - what's new - beyond d7 up north ...but, the advent or emergence of a tc down there can happen independent of the gfs' handling of the westerlies/pattern at mid latitudes. it's from recent guidance i've seen ...about d4.5 is when the region seems to develop from something actually ejected out of s. america which is interesting.

there's been events, extreme ones at that, during this last 2 years though flooding may not be everyone's cup of tea, granted. but the vt [seemingly new climate regime] rain bombs, ...the one in leominster and then more recently in ct, were amazing to watch from afar, and to see unfold in real time data/observation tech, nonetheless. don't mean to condescend ( seriously ...) but some of it might be related to 'drama addiction' ? maybe dystopian-drama is more apropos. we've all admitted to a kind of 'rush' felt at the instant of the model's 96 hour forecast ...suggesting the 180 hour might look dramatic - and then watching the movie of the model play out that vibe is some sort of weird satisfaction. endorphin thing, even and gives a fix for excitement. i'm probably going too far with this here ( what's new lol ) but it kind of all goes back to the psychotropic addiction stuff we've brought to light in the past. it was investigated by 60 minutes. it was showcased by 'the social dilemma' ( ex facebook engineers tell-all). folks sort of become ... something like addicted to the specter and emotion of witnessing the world's dirty laundry. these models ( 'cinema' as i like to call them..) sort of tap into that same phenom. and the addiction isn't really a basis from which expectations will ever match reality. that all said, ... yeah we haven't had a 1938 or gloria thing is 30+ years. we haven't had a winter that, forget psychotropic doom scrolling, ...we can't even merely write (dying art) home about either. but there have been things that are out of the ordinary enough. frankly, i dance around the idea that winters may never be what we were raised to see them as.