Typhoon Tip

yeah i know i've been waiting for that

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DEIg84BtTCs/?igsh=MTh3bGk3NWxra2RzOA==

GFS is distorting the meridian component of the amplitude because it ends up resolving so much speed into the individual s/w propagation movements thru the field thru that period - neg interference wrt to phasing aspects that situ 8/9/10 has a magnificent subsume variety phase potential otherwise.

Looks like there may be an early attempt at coalescencing on a low that passes over the Cape/islands.. this looks okay considering the path of jet max. the global position is okay but the left exit region of the acceleration aloft is east of their positions really - positions they're sort of 'getting away with' because we're eating cc shit on this one. cc/islands would probably be a good track for us in the interior, hfd to ash nh, 30 years ago but .. ha. we'll be 38 or so here in interior sne with 850s around -2c ... so darn close but likely too warm. I would still pay attention in cne and points NE up in Maine, however. in fact, 12z rgem along with very recent nams ( like 18z nams ..) are threatening a flash over around noon to 18z from the monads and ne looking. quick moving and again ...this was never a huge.

that 2000 year was an absolutely terrifying snow depth season over western ns and nf per a first hand account i had with a stranger. we missed the goat winter here by really what amounts to a geo-meteorological ch's distance that year. i recall either a storm or the one you were talking about.. but it bombed down to 943 mb about 300 mi e ...the western edge of a horrific ccb was like just over the eastern horizon by radar... and moved better than perfect for ns glacial death i was in a pub down on rt 20 in waltham one night in late february 2001 ... 'mad raven' of all times and places to happen to see a photo ( no kidding) some guy there who happened be visiting from ns he had a couple wallet photos he kept of that winter. the front of his house ... the snow depth musta been, i dunno 15 feet ? the entire facade entombed on both side with at least 8 foot of depth on the roof itself. the lights in the living room were like illuminated at the end of a white hallway

that whole period is really vulnerable through then .. this is like a first detection that’s drilled into enormous numerical instability … constructive interference; there’s likely to be let downs and let ups in ensuing model runs for awhile, but unless the over arcing modalities (+d(PNA)/-NAO ) go away … it is more likely there will be presentation on the map 8-11th

You’re late

Two.5 really but I see why with that look.

Eye candy art time

Run is better behaved but obviously at this range no hopes should be set

these are the ones with mass field modality support 1/2 8/9/10 (negotiable at this range )

slow evolving epicosity on the telecon inflection event out there at 8/9/10 tho

luckily for me that run is laughably badly handling the local hemisphere and is unlikely to bear reality then

that’s an ugly handling around the 7/8/9/10 actually.

no it's not always one or the other. just in deference to the outlook "if" it were to succeed that's also for the whole month. the current climate back ground connotes less probability for those cool sides and/or a diametric month like your describing there. that looks like a bombastic lay. they're right that being on the polar side of the boundary would be a whole different world, but i don't believe acceptance of the current climate leans one in favor of that

in fact ...we've well established that february is capable of shock and awe warm departures, particularly over the last decade of them ... with multiple different years in the span hosting febs with 70s even an 80 on a couple occasions... ( nothing wrong with 30+ anomaly high ). i would consider that outlook fair warning -

i don't believe the current climate footprint should reasonably imagine a verifying cfs outlook working in favor of winter enthusiasts.

yeah ..there may be a few interpretations. all i know is we got 13" with some sleet on top in acton ma. by late afternoon the next day, we were driving around town like normal.

1993 was a triple stream phase. in fact, the geometric wave space was arguably in phase from the latitude of the arctic circle of the nw territories, to the nadir of the trough as it was spawning the zygote circulation over the western gom. i like to metaphorically compare it to a 'rogue wave' event in the atmosphere. that's that thing that occurs in the open ocean, when surrounding waves suddenly decrease in space significance, while this one towering giant lurches up that is sometimes 3 or even 4 times the height of the previous mean trough to crest wave heights of the surrounding sea surface. this is thought to be what took down ships around bermuda, as the g-string current would cause huge wave crests when northeast gales are in that region - favoring the genesis of rogue waves. edmond fitzgerald etc anyway, the atmosphere's a fluid medium that obeys fluid mechanics ... which is wave physical. maybe it's not so much a metaphor

okay, following up ... this was never high confidence for snow, guys - there's no 'sinking ship' really. reading is a problem in here. it was described as very marginal, with snow perhaps 'collapsing toward the coast in the last 1/2 to 1/3 of it'. and, at the time .. was largely based on colder trends from various guidance sources that occurred yesterday. i did say the bold (abv) to Scott. well ... that's summarily what happened, unfortunately for snow enthusiasts. it trended back warmer. oh well... i mean, these were/are minor trends oscillating on either side of marginal, and this is what you get. there's still a non-zero chance this could amplify and end up more se again. fwiw, the ggem is persisting with potent look that offers a decent nor'easter. it's not a snow vs rain discussion point, but having a sub 990 mb low approaching from the s, and ending up in the boston harbor as a 982 mb is noteworthy for those that are interested in the meteorology of it. granted ( haha ) not the most popular model in the tool box, no.

1993 was too far inland imho - .. i'm butting in here. not sure what we're talking about. haha ... but if we're discussing impact relativity. 1993 was really more of burst of heavy snow that was comparatively rapidly recoverable along the 95 corridor/coastal plain east of the apps cordillera. the snow did not collocate so well with population density/geography, as well as that 1899 appears to have accomplished. part of my bringing this up is because 1993 always pissed me off. that was 10 days of d-drip bliss only to have the best heroin land along the roof top of the Appalachian chain? f* that i was down here in acton ma, about 30 mi w of boston as the crow flies, and we got 13" crusted over with 1/2" of sleet. i realize the specter of the storm and it's particular vitals, et al, were quite possible goat ... but it didn't seem from phl to bos like that was really our storm.

isn't hfd one of those climo sites/thermometers that y'all are trying to indict as needing calibration ? i'm noticing that altho december is ( so far ) below normal at the 4 sne majors, it's not hugely convincing. .ranging from -1 to -2 or so. so yeah, it's fair. perhaps not a bad achievement in this day and age when getting a month to neutral seems to be a challenge but hfd is just -0.5 so precarious. i'm wondering if that's suspect? i was also wondering if might get warm enough during these next couple of days to pull that -0.5 to neutral - i guess now that it is the end of the month, there's a lot of weight there and it'd take a lot to move the needle so prolly not.

of course ...with a look like that it 'seems' to finally be more correct with improving performance, huh lol

yeah … the eye candy has its entertainment value and it’s fun … i don’t think that’s our system heading towards the 11th tho …i think we need to watch this period here

we have a difference of opinion on that. as is... the hills of n ct up to the monads and across se nh is a colder signal - marginally so.. but I'm also not taking this model literally I'm correcting based on plenty of precedence and pure experience with that sort of look. the chartage painting blue qpf is more of warning really. heh. we'll see. it won't take any warming or that interpretation doesn't fly - no issue with that...