Typhoon Tip

you laugh but i've thought the gfs as suspect along similar for long while. have written tl;dr op eds aplenty in the past. in brief, its individual runs act as though the physical make up cleanses warmth out. either that, ...or in the aggregated sense it ends up with cool surplus. if one bothers to look above the latitude of the perceivable westerlies jet by d7 ...certainly by d10 and beyond, it consummately ends up with the largest region on the polar side when compared to the euro and ggem - a trait that is more or less observable in the gefs comparison, too. obviously okay to be the coolest look but when it always owns that or seems to, that becomes bias. i've never bothered to verify it

euro buckin for a coastal

i almost wonder if only the nooks and dales of central and northern alpine regions see frost in september, while the majority of us have trouble getting below 40 F heavy car top dewy mornings later in the month. our first convincing 'frost' this year may come from one of those anomalous synoptic october cold balls that drops into the lakes and sets up a minoring snow again.

summer's over in 3 days anyway ... may as well rip the band aide off the denial wound and let it scab over. haha i know i know for me, like probably everyone else ...the older i get the more i'm losing interest in winter - in fact, i'm probably already done if it were not for the singular intellectual curiosity over natural events; winter (in theory...) can still offer those opportunities, so it was thought. i got to say tho, the last decade's begun to shake my faith. tell you the truth (whether you asked or not heh) i don't give a ratz ass anymore about snow this or that. and if there is going to be a dearth of interesting events to offer that distraction then fuggit. i'd rather we just go 60 every day and really shock the shit out of all these CC down player types

absolute best satellite picture in possibly many, many years

my window units have set dormant - still in the sills ... cuz i'm procrastinating - since the end of july, a time when my new mini split/compressor tech came on-line. it's awesome. runs nearly silent and chills the main living area or where ever in mere moments, even when it's like 89/74 outside, using very low electric power.

wow... top 1 hour, if not day, out there. picturesque island cumulus set before an abyss of cobalt blue are not enough to prevent solar penetrating warmth immediately upon exposure. 74/53. no wind amid an ambience of probably the purest air this planet can create ...

just at a coarse look the featuring nearing 10N/30W looks like a 'zygote' entity to me. in fact it's already got a llv inflow into the western aspects, which interests me because no model really does much with it [ edit, actually the gfs's 6z appears to]. models seem to be focused further west along the itcz where presently there's only vague markers from what i can see.

yeah... at least if this over the top high pressure is going to cheat summer (suggestive in the fact that the hydrostatic heights are still above 564 dm!) merely enabling cool weather enthusiasts into thinking they're winning in that tick-for-tat back and forth pointless pass-time, i'm certainly glad that it is at least sunny up here along along rt 2.

i love how a broad band speed, and ping test, demonstrates zero lag and/or connectivity issues, respectively, to any site in the www, yet when attempting to connect to tropical tidbits i'm getting this You are currently offline, or your network connection is having trouble, and we are unable to show you the page you requested. it's a free site so it is what it is but there are other aspects about tt that are operationally weird. when doing cross guidance analysis, the site defaults to latest releases, no matter what, which throws off the interval comparison between them when in case usage. pivotal for example doesn't do this and is thus a superior product. and it also doesn't put a comm problem that is clearly his, back in your lap

they had that at 11:30 am tho or something way earlier than everywhere else, the closest of which at the time was 84

coils up a solid tc and has it moving along the archipelago to emerge near the bahamas toward the end of the run

91/70

i'm pretty resolute in the notion that we're being 'protected', so to speak, from experiencing what cc-attribuation is already capable of doing

impressive 12z ggem run

it can't be 90 at bdl

this looks like it could just as well be the climate footprint but fwiw cpc's september is 50-60% chances for above normal

this is the 12z Euro's depiction for 2pm tomorrow indicating the 'real' frontal position at that time placing all CT zones in contention for some impressive heat ind values - just playin' devil's advocate here

there's also home grown season

just to foot this meme, the mjo desk are negging the teleconnection through mid month for the mdr, too. wah wah wahhh. they do remind [however] that we're nearing climo peak and that may offset the signals but ... i'm not sure is see a pathway even there, without a better tw trafficking behavior. there's been a dearth of robust waves and the general counts have been down.

pretty cool 'white squall' event over southern lake michigan https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Michigan-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

culture's only gonna get more heat sensy in the future. was discussing the emergence of the 'synergistic heat' phenomenon, as a new paradigm that needs special attention or even categorically codified, with an nws director and she was in agreement ... indicating it's on the desks. that was a year ago this last June

omg rockford il is putting up a 97/79 this hour. that can't be right. altho some sites around n il are also tainting

mm i dunno bout that - could be conservative. it's currently 93/77 in kalamazoo mi and about that in south bend in there's 24-hr lag telecon with the lower lakes and sne i dunno, maybe it shunts, but it's mid 80s and mid 60s dp at a few sites now - it's not synoptically cooler around here tomorrow

Blue Hill/'Southern New England Weather Conference' is scheduled for October 26 down in Canton. Looks like the programming is interesting. ripped from the website, https://bluehill.org/join-blue-hill-observatory-for-the-2024-southern-new-england-weather-conference-on-october-26th/ “How the Weather Defines our History and Impacts the Future.” “Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning in Atmospheric Models” “NOAA’s “Climate Ready Workforce” Initiative” “Extreme Weather Events Playback” “Extreme Weather & the Symbiotic Relationship Between Weather and Climate” “Climate Change in New England—How Fast Are We Warming” “Winter 2024-2025 Seasonal Outlook” - presentation provided by Raymond; NSA reps will be onsite ... just fyi