Typhoon Tip

it's too overwhelmingly powerful - probably a ceiling depiction here. physical phantom. as is, it'd take any coastal low and drive in nw into ontario so hard that sands the apps down to plain with that fucking beast of quasar (258)

massive changes on the 18z gfs wrt the 10th-ish potential thru 220 hrs

right not attempting to condemn naos hahaha. no, i mean what you're saying - yeah one has to nuance the field and it's highly circumstantial. if a nuetral pna is in play you don't want -2 sd nao over the western limb, or your bomb axis is va beach. if you got a +pna, lift the nao in latitude so you have some up-under spacing. there's millions of these ... snow flakes of these different relative strengths between competing mass fields. i've often thought there's like intervals in music with the nao. ( oh jesus - ) ... the 3rd and 5th tones of the octave are harmonic. so, you want a '3' pna and a '5' nao, say - metaphorically speaking. but you can't have a 3 pna and a diminished 7 or it sounds like the charts smell: shitty

anyway ... despite my commiserating over the last hour, that's all it is. just empathizing with how i'm sure the jaded spirits cry out in pain. haha. in the more here and now terms, we're talking about injecting a wave space into an arena that is ostensibly controlled by an nao that ( whoops) hasn't even materialized yet - neither has. the nao, or the former wave inject. to reiterate, nao's are notoriously handled badly beyond d6 or 7 - that's in general... they're modulating details such as how much specific suppression ( or not ...), is all but idiosyncratic and cannot really be assessed at this range using anything other than the quantum computing cores that are ... 10 years or something from coming online. those will eventually be the next major step forward in deterministic meteorology - beyond which ... provided tech keeps evolving and humanity is still around, the "weather modification grid" finaly comes on line and all of this is rendered completely futile to even engage in the pastime - heh. my official position on the 6/7th is 'guarded pessimism' - which means i lean less, but am far from sold that the nao doesn't back stab the 7 day forecast, ...like that's never happened before

not to pick a sensy moment to jiggle the chigger but ... done been complaining about that and the nao's misconception/false application, since it started being wrongly used to mark-up social media reputations back in the early 2000s.

if what you're saying there is honest? ... i betcha your susceptible tho - when i asked, '... going forsythias in early february with out door weather historically early? ' i was thinking something more along the lines of an attribute ass-kicker cc event at a seasonal level. like the first shot across the bow for 2050's future. where we get one now...then another in 8 seasons...then another in 6 seasons after that, 4 seasons after that... then they're happening ever 3rd season...then boom. we don't essentially have feb and mar anymore. those that are winter coveters and/or can't control being offended by this mere jest, are going to get incensed here - even though i've already declared this as not intending to inflame ... - but, if the globe is warming ... at some point, the globe has to actually get warm that's pretty much unsalable logic - it's just a matter of ironing out when. but that sort of creeping in return rate increasing frequency model above is the principle of the thing - not saying that's it. but it's like that. you lose a bit first, until you realize at some point out in time that you've lost altogether. or gain in geological history, if/when going the other way... but this ain't that. where the hell am i going with this... oh, so pretend this is the first one... remember back in 2016 - 2019 there were some really weird early season shock and awe heat bursts in february and march's? what if not one, but three happened over a 40 day period, with general base line thawed earth in between. march 2012 was a staggering +10 ... talking +12 to even +15. this is the way we're likely to ever get our "43C heat wave" - i've come to find ( another digression ...) that we seem to hurt our winters more than make our summers hotter at our particular depot of earth's surface. it's just circumstantially permanent for where we are in relation to the continent and ocean.. we end up too souped up with dps to top end the thermometer like they can other places of similar latitude around the nh. it's like being born with plumbosis genes and trying to win a beauty contest - not likely... anyway, i bet if we start getting that done, you'd be buy-able to just have at it.

me neither. all do respect to the die -hards... not intending to inflame outrage merely for having a different druthers and perspective on matters than whomever you are. buuuut... i've made no mystery in the past over being an early check-out guy anyway. years that such definitely. years that even do this gently stroking the milk weed while leaving the sauce inside ? double dong f* that! i've always preferred the front ender winters. which this is rapidly failing ... need to get a decent dawg to bite here pretty soon, and then we'll reassess any buy-back in ( talkin psycho babble on that specific aspect...). but typically by february and early March, when our biggest bombs in history have always occurred ( hahahaha) i'm pretty much zip on patience and just sessune ( is that a word ? seriously - ) ... just assume or whatever that the seasonality will go to a place i know it will never go.

at first glance that 126 hr Euro isn't a bad initial look ... it's just that it's been that way on or about that interval, for days ... , but the ensuing frames only go in the direction it could about .. 1::6 cycles it seems you have a strong-ish interloping s/stream wave approaching a favorable lat/lon nexus down there, with the western end of the spv poised to dig in... there are reasons why it does on those non 1::6 runs (heh) - it's just that the reasons it doesn't on the other 6 outnumber. i got a serious question: suppose we get to the 14th of january and nothing's happened. the models at that time are showing a complete la nina-esque butt bangin' pattern rollout scenario, suggesting no last half of winter. would anyone be opposed to cc-attribution kicking in/adding to it and going forsythias in early february with out door weather historically early??

... in here? that question is equivalent to rollin up to a crack house and asking the people inside the crack house if they'd mind not actually doing the crack ...

folks ... don't get confused. we're not discussing 'getting an event' out of 1/6 ... we're strictly identifying limitations ( actually..) and therein, how longs shots might overcome. there's difference there

saw that ... in fact, it occurred to me that this run probably already would have come wholesale nw enough to strike but that feature is actually imposing a bit/neg interfering

i would have beaten you with this post timing if it were not for my being too verbose like Ray was sayin' lol

for what it's worth the 12z icon has made a substantial move, in both depth/potency off the mid atl, but bumping nw too, wrt to jan 6. it ultimately still misses, but that is precariously close! if the next run were to incrementally do the same, it would like be bring an even to ct/ri/se-e ma.. 'nj model low' you can see some delicate albeit crucial difference in the total circulation components beween the nao domain, to n of lake superior ... that region is causing less suppression of confluence/def axis in this run... it's kind of fortuitous because it's exemplifying what scott and i were just musing

i never said it was coming n just outlining what the guidance is showing over the last hour's worth of personal content... i honestly have not really contributed anything about jan 6 in week's worth of this engagement. unless you mean you don't agree with the consensus? to which i'm not even sure what that is.

i'm only posting this because no one else is brave enough to run out into the open while snarkers are waiting with their machine guns loaded with bun emojis ... i have no dignity left to protect - but, the actual spread here is getting sort of lost in the fact that the -nao related trough node e of the continent is washing the medium. if you loop this though at pivotal, you can see that there is a reasonable storm signal moving up s of long island toward this period of time, and then some of these individual members are fairly deep (resulting) and probably close enough to impact southern and eastern regions. it think the presence in the ensemble mean is getting obscured a little

right .. i'd add, at this time though. just sayn' you know, very early jan 1996 the then avn rolled in off the difax with that sort of cut off look on the n and nw out there at a 108 hrs - if memory serves, that's about as far as it went out in time; it was like the short range/higher res version of the mrf. i loved those days of charts actually ...different discussion. i remember speaking to harvey about that, in the studio down at channel 7 ... my friend who had interned with him got me a chance to tour the studio. i scored an intern op of my own ( i suspect- ) because it cited reasons why i thought the deformation axis was destined to tilt up enough to allow the cyclone to impact from nyc to bos - a discussion point that i'm sure would have been quite bun-worthy in this social media lol. i was like on cloud nine ( pun at least serviceable there - ) for the encounter, getting to talk in my hypothetical short-comings with a theoretical giant. but the visit went down super. so toward the end he asked me what i was doing for my internship for that ensuing spring semester. gulp. that's how i got in - guess he liked my presentation. we all know what happened... the deformation axis shifted nw in the last 48 hours and brought the goodies to sne. the -nao was antecedent to that period, too. obviously, back then .. .the models were not going to be very good at nao handling, considering that we're here in the arrogant tech future and it's only incrementally better than totally sucking donkey dong if you ask me. i mean, yar it's better. but's still not quite capable of nailing def axis' placements down to 10 miles ( so to speak ) at this range of 7 days. so in either case.. .i feel the nao's real weight on suppression is probably negotiable until latter innings.

i've seen deformation axis so intense that milky sun goes to virga plume sky, to heavy snow in just 10 or so miles, extending along a line that's 400 mile long. on modeling, the less savvy observer tends to be too distracted by the storm on the map itself, and isn't paying enough attention. so it seems like it's just going to rotate on up and be fun

i want to start an extended lead -based thread for the 8/9/10 ..11 but i'm not sure we should drop the 6/7th and that one's going to be tricky as i was just mentioning to Will

i don't have access to any algorithmic -based graphics like nws or anything ... but imo from what i'm observing ( so taken fwiw ) the primary sensitivity for determining latitude wrt the 6/7th ( hell of a sentence here, haha) is the idiosyncratic handling of the nao. it's definitely a western limb variant for one. but that's a elephant ass trying to sit down on a trampoline. hell, it'd almost be better if the nao was a more neutral longitude/latitude node; i.e., not over the eastern canadian archipelago but more ne toward greenland. i would just suggest for people ( failing to influence anyway in here, i know - ) not to wave that one off because runs are limiting impact for at least 3 maybe even 4 days on that one. i mean you know this, but as i outlined yesterday, this is a 'sub-index scaled' system. think of that scale as eddies in a river, where the actual index scaled ones are the river itself. we're naturally more confident in where the river is going to be than we are where it's transporting it's intra mass field perturbations...

it's because nothing's changed in a week ( really ... ) since i/we first posted about it all. this manic-like behavior of needing model run to cinema some dopamine jerk ... is unfortunately not a physical force in the atmosphere that will create movies capable of appealing to that sickness. yeah, now that's funny!

definitely an inverted trough signal there

no ... more plasmoids sent here as reconnoiter sentinels prior to the invasion -

it's difficult to identify a larger order of mass field driven restoring in order to propagate a major through the field during that time. that unfortunately leaves it susceptible to smaller even nuanced suppression ( transitive forcing if you will ...) tendencies from the -d(nao); a deterministic feat that's hard to do the day before, let alone 8 days out there. as it sits right this now, while typing... the better aspect would be less -d(nao). the fact the models are tending to a s track may already be representative of these ideas above

1/2 is rain for sne .. .but, there's room/concern there for elevations of cne, with more column blue snow possibilities in maine 1/6 is a sub-index system .. i like to refer to those as maintenance events. as it leaves, the polar-arctic hybrid air floods in its wake, engulfing all of the np-gl-eventually ov and ma regions. that sets stage for the 8/9/10 arena ... 8/9/10 .. 11 still looms largely in the telecon/interpretation. this has been the case for a week now, with a very bright beacon. the recent operational gfs ( vastly too early to indict ...) runs have been oscillating between extraordinary solutions ... followed almost immediately upon the next run cycle, by almost nothing. this 12z run with a 990 mb closed sfc pressure contour that is the size of nearly tx, while at the same time ...essentially missing any event, is a ginormous warning flag for explosive potential. what i'm looking at in these operational runs is "too much of a good thing" you actually don't need 504 dm spv to subsume into the mid latitude flow in order to create something special. what's happening is that there is too much d(gz) between 40 N and the gom. that delta/excessive gradient is causing the s/stream s/w to rocket around the southern arc of the diving spv, at too fast of a rate ... so what ends up happening is that it outpaces - the prey runs faster than the predator. you can coherently see this slipping bipass between the s aspect ...out pacing the spv. the spv ends up deepening by non linear constructive feedback, with no help from cyclogen because the s stream trigger long gone. there are two competing cons trying to steal what is really just a fantastic opportunity. obviously, the winter enthusiasts among us with rather they both fail... but the first is, this tendency to over slope the heights in the mid latitude/velocity saturation thing is real. that's A. B, the models also have an amplitude bias in this d7-11 range. it's difficult to parse out if/and/or how much of either A or B is delimiting this thing... luckily for us, there is no real responsibility to correctness by any guidance beyond day 8 - it's really just a fun thing that we're even given those range. the telecon and the ensemble-based super synoptic indicators are really the most important aspect in that range.