Typhoon Tip

yeah i could nod to this approach we exist in ( and because of ..) the kind of complexity that is not just linear, but is interactions among products as well. these latter interactions in turn cause emergence that are difficult ( to put it lightly ) to predetermine, because when attempting to do so, they may not even exist if the linear products are not precise predicted. with all that calamity ... there's no way, zero possibility, that a systemic behavior is a result of a single input. it comes down to amounts of contribution - with a dose of spatial relativity.

25 to 30 deg deltas by 10:45 am is pretty fantastic. 47, now 75 kfit 50 --> 75

oh shit yes. of course. not intending condescension there ( ha) no but just as a base physical consequence to more warm air, it evaporates more water. that means the ambient atmosphere holds more water mass - such that all events in that same ambient medium will avail. that very basic concept is why rain rates have been increasing around the world ... in close correlation with cc ...etc. no question remains re that connection. based upon that facet, increasing ( non dispersive ) ohc, and then inducing a mechanism to release it - that's sort of what i was 'hinting' at with that 'restoring going the other way' thing a while ago etc - that sets up regions in storm frequency to additional prolific results. the in situ storm gradients become excessive - the baroclinic physical result is rain ( or snow or whatever ). positive feedback ==> evening news

i know in all seriousness tho i was more actively posting related material about jesus ... 5 years ago. but it was new then, necessary to get word out. i've since supplied links to papers and so forth. side's hc isn't everything. it's definitely a part of the roni "integral" - whether the authors of that science are aware or not. but the regions outside hc are also guilty in the offsetting too. hc isn't as paramount to the discussion as is considering the entire planet.

it's been quite a while - i mention it when it is appropriate to do so

i don't make many of them. altho admittedly, may be the only one that brings that to bear in this social media it is appropriate in thread at this point. hc is just one among other noted alterations to the hemisphere's circulation modal anomalies. it's also been papered in climate.

mmm it can lend to quiescence perhaps like this tropical season ( so far..). but important to realize, the restoring periods can be other way i'm wondering about the ensuing winter hemisphere. part of the cane climo isn't really to give web dystopia addicts their high. it's actually existing as a geophysical mechanism to transport heat from the equatorial latitudes to the polar latitudes. with a suppressed cane turn out, where is the heat surplus going? it's a question of conjecture at that point. no aver as to a forecast there. but intuitively, it's an important question. my immediate impulse suggestion is to add some amount of a tera joules to the already raging fast base line velocity thing.

i don't think so - not based upon that data presentation, anyway on the right side, there's clearly a multi-decadal trend line with a significant positive slope, while on the left hand side ... the scale of that color palate is decimals. d(t) between 2023 and 2024 results a decimal value that fits along that trend line, a trend that was established/predates the this recent 6 months if intense solar onset.

i explained what's been the issue a couple pages ago. hc expansion is screwing up the canonical wave propagation in both time and space. both the kelvin and mjo, and as a result, the longer term uvm tendencies have been 'stuck' stuck so to speak - like a standing wave. i'm actually curious at this point if the positioning of this around the hemisphere is just bad luck, or if it is preferential for having former circumstance. everything being described in scott's post by these others can be linked. monsoons --> n. vague yet crucial mid level ridging ...etc expanded hc doesn't mean 'big and strong' hc per se. it in fact means the circulation and internal mechanics are weaker - the termination latitude of the hc where it boundaries with the westerlies become more blurred and also higher in latitude. low frequency static observations of that like are quite consistent with all that.

yeah i hope it's 77 every day this fall lol

if you looping this ... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml ... one may see that that uvm anom distribution has predominated since well prior to that, or any particular mjo for that matter - which was incoherent prior. as well, technically at present we are not in or aft of a phase 5 or 6 as of yet. that doesn't strike me as mjo causally linked to phase 5-6. it may be that phase 5-6 correlates well, but since the 'standing wave' nature of that anom distribution predates the mjo presentation, it leaps out as coincidence - perhaps some feedback ( constructive interference ) moving forward, notwithstanding.

74/41

i get it that it’s just a random 18z run during col season but still … is the gfs modeling on earth with that?

mm I dunno. felt warm down here to me. was outside much of the day and it was 78 to 80 then driving between places. y'all up in alpine country are probably just getting what you deserve for living there. heh

expanded hc is fuckung things up kelvin waves are less identifiable and in fact are weaker in weaker hc circulation manifold … not propagating as efficiently. we appear trapped in an “unscheduled” standing wave problem as a result. we’ve persisted in neg uvm anomaly over our hemisphere for several weeks. without the canonical progression of kelvin wave to then reverse the uvm field this season is likely toast for those original predictions.

the previous several top years were rarely more than a few short decimals warmer than the previous record warm summers. this one bucked that by surpassing the previous by 2.5 whole degrees. sometimes the value of the differential is more important than the achievement

yeah i'd argue the gfs's pattern's likely okay in principle ... but ( what's new - ) it's equally likely to be some 20 or even 30% too amplified. this really all but needs to be a built into model evals as a presumptive approach - one that folks need to lens everything through, first, during the ensuing winter too. it might save us from wading through countless X repostings and/or analysis over phantoms. there are times when an advance lead amplitude are ...something like "more buy-able" but it's rarer. you know, you wonder what this modern evolution of the technology would look like in the 10 days prior to a 1993 march redux lol

models really dried this thing up today, huh. either that or they busted.

i'm thinking you will tomorrow. i'm not sure i buy it that you won't later on as we've observed some redic warmth clear to the beginning of novie some autumns of the past 7 years. we had snow near the end of october in 2020 and it was 78 to 83 between nov 4 and 8 .. yeah, not sure at your elevation with alpine right next door.

I take the question one step further ... I noticed that curve at Svalbard started that ascent really back in 2022, each year since accelerating relative to the previous year. The difference between 2021 and 2022 appears to be a factor of 2 > than just about any differential along the previous 120 years of that record keeping. Then, 2022-2023, which contains the global heat surging phenomenon, the rise was again ~ 1.5 X as long as 2021-2022, make it almost 4X more than the average deltas. It seems that which caused the global surge may have been underway prior to it actually showing up pervasively elsewhere ( spring of 2023 ). I wonder if other similar latitude station sites around the hemisphere also presaged the temperature surge, where they started lift off before the mid latitudes and the rest of us observed the explosive rise. One other aspect that puzzles me still ... why did the air over land, AND the ocean SSTs, rise together like that. It wasn't just the atmosphere that warmed all a once in the 'big burst'. everything cooked all at once. Otherwise, agreed ... the termination of the N branch of the g-stream up there may be mucking with matters.

temps in the 70s is summery to me 60s/40s is autumn maybe it's 'hybrid' seasonality but i'm just old enough with my pipe and rocking chair here to recall so many years where if were 70+ in autumn, it was resolute to being unusually warm weather. looking ahead ...the chances for 90 are fleeting - probably climatology, either way. 80s may be a stretch, too, unless the pattern breaks. while that is the way it looks as of today ... the cooler appeal has attenuated also. it's really looking ( to me ) like we're just in the process of correcting for models being too amplified out in time, in either direction. probably a rare 'normal' stretch + decimal CC footprint.

does 3 invest count as a flurry of activity

for me this study more reinforces what's already been known - or convincingly posited. https://phys.org/news/2024-08-reveals-crucial-role-atlantic-arctic.html the 'thermo-haline cycle' was a topic of either formulation or speculation dating back to the 1990s. t .. be that as it may, the warming surface waters then mixing with freshwater means less densification. lighter water doesn't sink as much - the downward 'chimney's that transport into deep depths have lesser amount of mass, such that there is less pull n of surface water to replace what is no longer falling. in the simplest sense, this cuts the circuitry ... slowing the amoc.

you're looking at this from a discrete thermometer aspect - no comment... but i'm talking about the geopotential medium and the synoptic layouts as it goes out in time. those two aspects are obviously indirectly connected. that cool shot brian's noting of mid month brings multiple inches of ccb cement across nw nf over the top of a high latitude coastal bomb it's a gfs thing it does at the end of august every year. contrasting, in april, it too often attempts to reset the pattern back to february in early may. it may in fact be mores so a transition season problem. the models not really useful beyond 8 or 9 days - not enough so to take it seriously, anyway - but these bias really underscore why that is

i can remember aug's in the 1980s down to just 40 f in acton between the 15th and the end of the month