Typhoon Tip

140 mph

fwiw, 2:25 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 Location: 26.7°N 84.9°W Moving: NNE at 16 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 120 mph

meh to each is his or her own. i like nickles with occasional dimes that add up in a pattern that's legit cold enough for pack power. failing that, yeah ... i see the allure of a giant event. duh. i see that allure at any time. but i find 5 or 6 weeks of brown bare earth submerged under unpleasant temperatures, with barren weather chart cinemas, to be a storm of ennui that far exceeds any big event's capacity to inflict personal injury. lol

as an aside, this reminds me: singular precipitation events that far exceed 'storm event climatology' have been becoming more frequent world over. i think that's where you're going. yup - that 30" otherwise nill type setting you describe is being observed. it's empirically demonstrated that regions have been receiving as much as season's quota, or a significant fraction, all at once, ...before resuming extended dearths of anything significant. if that locale were to have a run in with two of them, inside the same season, history at both seasonal scales but in house floating down landscapes turned riverine on drone videos.

meh ...it's just more subjectivity - even given that definition. i mean imagine a zone that averages 60" of snow per season. now imagine a year whence that zone gets 0 snow, except for one 50" hoo-ha, a single event that has never happened in history - therefore by scalar acknowledgement, has to be the greatest storm ever, period. yet, that is a season that ends 10" below normal. now imagine off all years, -10 is also the most snowless with the next year being -9 on the shit list. that doesn't make the that season saved in a numerical sense. not even close. but ... look out! emotion saves the day and because the storm in fact triggered that greatest boner satisfaction ever, the winter is amazing! haha

the problem i have with a lot of this stuff is that the scalar verification over recent decade(s) have not matched leading indicators very well, anyway.

gfs (and now ggem, 12z) with the first synoptic air type of the season by the end of the first week of october ... 45 days ahead of schedule - a recurring motif of autumns since 2000.. some years more so than others. but its why for snow has been seen down to 40 n nearly half the octobers since 2000 - or whatever the incident recurrence has been but way above the 1950 to 2000 norm but, it's likely by some 20% that these guidances are too amped with cold weight and trough depths at this range, anyway, but this is officially the demarcation time for this modeling year, that the models start catfishing winter enthusiasts

it's kinda interesting how dry the rads are from pa on up considering the density and pervasiveness of cloud on sat

yeah, nothing to see here for any one humanly sane to the aesthetic appeals of nature... those idiots-

just for a coffee break .. some guidance is pushing a warm boundary to perhaps rt 2 up this way during the day, tomorrow. lga on the fous grid in the nam has t1 to 24c ...which is possibly as high as 26 in the 2meter. stalls the boundary just shy of logan with a 19c there, but that's probably farther north west o the city in the interior. anyway, sun's feeble so it may be more synoptic instability ...also, with the impetus escaping ne it may be mechanically challenged.

i noticed that 'muted hues' complexion down this way since about 2 weeks ago - which is early for these climate zones. it's not like they started turning colors as much as pail beiges of morbidity looking. there's some more coherent red and orange emerging now, but we've had that baby shit tinging on a lot of the big deciduous species since the first week of this month down here.

i don't care on this day ... that posters been nipping at me for some combination of their own low brow perspectives, along with a blatant tendency for petty ad hominem, for years... really enough is enough.

fwiw pdo ( https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ ) Aug 2024 -2.88 Jul 2024 -2.99 Jun 2024 -3.16 May 2024 -2.99 Apr 2024 -2.12 Mar 2024 -1.52

yeah, maybe ... and perhaps that is true for all that use pain killers. there's not as much science to back that up as the other, tho but there's definitely statistical correlation between cte and latter life onset of parkinsonism, and football is definitely among the list of sports described as contact. that's damning enough no one is jumping to conclusions. perhaps if you've ever read anything that scopes outside of your myopic impression of reality you might have a fuckin' clue enough to stop you from being passively hostile and asssholier than thou toward those that do. the correlation and possible causation is not my conclusion -

brett favre diagnosed with Parkinson's ... cte correlation - another argument for keeping one's kids out of contact sports.

it's my one patience challenge that i battle with, this constant ne llv feed deals. high pressure n-ne of us is working on 7 consecutive days and it won't relent the llv cold feed until that abates. it's just exhaustingly barren of interest, while and also stealing precious remaining time, tries to close the book on outdoor season prematurely while doing so - meaningless. these transition seasons in new england are really ... you know, if i had my druthers, i'd be traveling now and in aprils

a very difficult and complex set of reasons for that assessment ... haha

obviously it's relative to personal economics but ... fwiw, my out of pocket came to 4,500 ... the total cost was 14,500 ... which i did front, but ( provided the house/edifice meets some pretty basic home energy efficiency requirements) the rebate program was no bullshit. 10 large came back within 7 weeks of the project completion - so you get 10 K in a check about a mo and a half later. i'm pretty sure it's a state thing ? so being a massivetwoshits resident ...etc. just sayn'

that's really more in line with what i dream of doing. the battery tech is what kills you in that expenditure but given that's doable, an a.c/d.c converter off said battery sys that 'flops' surplus back into the grid, that is what i ultimately wanted. but, alas ... my roof space is too small to make that work for self-sufficiency. i don't have enough space of there. the property is also not able to fit for supplementing with ancillary panels in the yard ...etc. so, all things considered, vastly improved home heating and cooling tech combined with what generation i can muster with a smaller sized solar array was the best option for this location

unsure of other people's baggage but for me ... it's purely a war against ngrid my house is not large. 2 br upstairs, and just a small kitchen, living area and 1 full bath. yet, despite this small footprint was costing me 550 to as much as 800 $ a month from roughly mid nov to mid mar for electricity. the place is all electric. heat (baseboard resisters - ouch!) ... hot water ... stove ... fridge ... not much i can do about the stove as gas isn't accessible without town-scaled zoning/sponsored infrastructural digging after a bit of research it's become quite suspicious that recent hikes in both provider and delivery costs by these macro providers ( ngrid being one of those..) are more likely attempting to deflect incoming revenue losses. larger and larger areas of both residential and commercial are converting to renewable greener energy sources, and that has begun to cut into the previous model glut of these macro grid supplying, economic testicle gripper power providers (rhymes and alliterations on purpose!) so they've been cooking up these reasons for having to raise prices ... when the real motivation is to transfer their losses someplace else: the customers. that may be an over simplification ... or not even right, but it's a bad look for the likes of the ngrid lords. long of the short ... with mini splits being several factors more efficient than base board heating, and combining the solar installation that's hopefully happening ( pending roof structural engineering recommendations ...), at least my balls will be less in "ngrip"'s vice -

apalachee bay ? i thought 'big bend' was a tx thing

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-advanced-civilizations-overheat-planets-years.html ( https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.06737 ) one of, if not the most destructive geological disaster in the entire history of this planet may turn out to be the arrival of human innovation

hinted on radar and more coherently illustrated on satellite ... this morning there's an epic battle between -nao against the perennial/normal motion of west to east that supposed to characterize the mid latitudes the atmosphere is decoupled from above and below ~ the 700 mb you can see this channel jet flowing out of the -nao trainwreck ... the llv flow is carting along some spritzer showers into the region, while above that the clouds from the perennial motion is gliding in untethered to what's below

also, there's growing support ( fwiw ) for a more important mdr system over the next week to 10 ds. the status of the hemisphere : the baser uvm metric has improved a little - less negative in recent days. with the rmm mjo showing at least some modest presentation in phase 8-1-2 in the modeling, the correlation favors weakening the erstwhile suppression further - that which has helped cap the season to date. we'll see if we can pop the lid late.

my knee jerk impression from blending the models is that 'Helene' may actually get an assist in developing when she ( ...if it identifies Helene as a woman ) starts moving n-nne through the channel and over the eastern gulf. storm relative shear drops when that happens, while for a transient time ... the trough in the u/l off to the nw might create an outflow/channeling assist. i'm bothering to speculate because the models are dropping the pressure down to 940 mb in some case ( perhaps 948 mean) across these recent runs, and that's powerful hurricane, not more than 4 days from impacting the n or ne gulf. the preceding is for tropical enthusiasts in general ... not intended for local dystopian luster audiences