Typhoon Tip

looks like we're still in a pick 'em mode with this thing .. convincing trend or not from the Americans, the euro is now in the lead in this contest. i don't like the fact that 00z grid was just tickling pac wave mechanics over land out west in the initialization, and then the 00z op gfs charlie browns? despite the weight of it's ens mean/behavior over the previous 3 cycles - could it be that the gefs system is over assimilating west of the continent? kind of hints at that ... in any case, more of that relay will be happening moving forward so it may be something was missed. we're pretty much at 3.5 days for when stream interaction would take place, the 00z and 06z gfs showed a discerned backing off the amount of n/stream. also want to point out that the positive sloping s/stream has never really sat very well with me. forgot to mention that last night - we'll see

Potential for a very intense/rapid coastal detonation is gathering confidence... whether it's impacts are confined to the mid Atlantic or becomes a I-95 coastal plain and near interior significant impact is still unclear.. but I don't believe the EPS is likely to win this one when we are still outside it's wheelhouse of 4.5 days ( A), and (B) there's some arguments below that suggest it may be overcorrecting. I commented earlier in the day that the 12z GEFs was a coherent signal, more so over the previous, and that the spread was n-w. The 18z GEF means has in fact moved the mean toward the previous spread, ....and yet there's still a compact smearing of uncertainty spread still extending back toward the Cape and Islands. At 132 hours, there's some really deep solutions in that cluster ... on that is almost collocated with the spread from the previous 12z cycle on the left. This has been correcting + in the GEFs for 5 consecutive cycles, a time in which 3 out of the 5 oper. versions really favoring the phase side. We are less that 96-108 hours during critical stream interaction timing - I suspect the Euro turns around. I can see a theoretical pathway to explain why the EPS has been so flat. It's really in the handling of the larger mass field perturbation. The PNA is settling off in all the ensemble means, but not rapidly. In fact, there is a new +d(PNA) out around the 13th-17th ( not discussed here ); whereby it never really goes negative in the GEPs and GEFs. It does, however, in the Euro... by a small but possibly crucial amount, spiking to -.5 or like 2 days centered on the 12th. This puts it at odds with the GEFs and GEPs. The NAO is the interesting aspect. It is rising in the GEFs and GEPs, a small but crucially larger amount of than the EPS. Those nuanced 'giga' movements in the field would plausibly atone for the EPS family being a no show. This system has a very slim margin for error, with a simply fantastic ceiling on development potential very close to the said margin. It's because the southern stream is highly likely to exist; the northern stream is highly likely to exist. But, these idiosyncratic, non-linear feedbacks coming from the perturbations of the PNA vs the NAO, is placing this low on the positive side of the margin in the GEFs and GEPs, and on the negative side in the EPS. Also, the Euro employs the 4-d variables system which I suspect might offer some error in over correcting for the sagging PNA, with a lacking rise in the NAO - so suppressing to put is simply... The rise in the NAO that is just slightly pronounced by the GEFs and GEPs would be sufficient to exit latitude a cyclogen closer to LI than do east of the Va Capes... Part of the reason for starting this thread is ... for one, it probably should have been started - perception of usefulness withstanding - two days ago as an "experimental monitoring" effort. But I feel we'er leaning more deterministic now. There's other stuff in the deep range that is making the end of the month interesting, with strong -WPO/-EPO pacific circulation mode. ..etc and maybe this will help free up the Jester' thread for that debate

the models is doing it's typical 2C warm bias beyond 100 hrs song and dance anyway. that totality of the synoptic manifold wouldn't see a cf much nw of the rt 1/95 split ...and only there for about 10 minutes before collapsing in the blinding frappe neutral PP in the ambience might limit some wind but that much negative tilt and raw dpva ... ?, not sure there won't be some gravity wave perturbation with enhanced banding do to the truly awesome uvm chimney/restoring. wouldn't want to be just south in the return flow because this thing looks like a slam dunk for a fold event

could be the most powerful NJ Model low solution i've ever seen... the only competition to this i can think of is Dec 2005 in fact, 2005 didn't make the top 10 analog list, but i argue that's the western ridge component to the total field, because centric to the device, that is pretty goodly matched... maybe 85% in a narrower domain this thing at 120 hrs is actually more intense in this 18z gfs op.

okay, this is what i wanted to see happen, the spread migration is n-w this is not atypical for west atlantic/continental interface cyclogen ( coastal developement ) as the lower to 850 mb thermal packing is not really very well resolved among the members, so they tend to drift their solutions e ( at this range...) of where the best discrete b-c gradient aligns. in this case, with nascent cold air abutting the g-string heat source, the higher res operational run is more likely to be correct if/when running that much powerful q-g forcing right over the thermal wall - it's prooobabliy why the operational run is making this look so compact - ... it's a little like 2005 dec, only detonating 6 to 9 hrs sooner and tracking slightly s.

just for help spread is tending more west ... this is a miss as is, but is also trending -

alright now i'm a little happier, having seen the 12z gefs ... need some eps but at least 'happier ' in fact, the 3 run trend is pretty evident. the sfc pp layout among the member(s) mean is clearly indicating coalescent cyclogen fields, n-s, along the 90 w longitude ... haven't seen the 144+ yet but i'd be surprised if that didn't show improvement.

btw, pna may be a better fit for 3 or so days around or preceding the 20ths - but the telecon being sketchy as of late, ... i remember discussing wtih someone in this media, years ago, that the telecons themselves have become increasingly less stable - they're really the bedrock upon which the buildings sway. whenever the sways try to sway one's thinking one way or the other ... just refer back to the teleco and uuuusually, that could protect one from the 'miss'guidance quotient. but that get's kind of hard to do when telecons are having earth quakes.

absolutely perfect and concise interpretation if/when based upon the trends to date wrt incorporating available indicators - i've noticed that the teleconnector ( pure numerology ) have charlie browned this period of time, 9/10/11th ... beginning about 48 hours ago. i posted then that i did not like the torpid commitment by the ens means - but am willing to admit i was a bit star-struck by the 00z euro and 06z gfs operational Rembrandter solutions... however, the pna was, up until about 2.5 days ago, progged to rise through the 12thl this thing we've been monitoring was at the time occurring as the telecon was approaching an apex out there... done deal. since then, the index has changed... it's now -d(pna) starting late on the 8th and falling pretty sharply through the 10th/ ...11th+ that's going the wrong direction. it doesn't have to mean coffin nails to this thing being meaningful for us...but, objectively, these recent model runs may just as well be the underlying physics of an abandoning pna ...

plenty of time.. i'd really like it better if there was more than a tepid response from the eps/gefs. and what's with virtually no acknowledgement from the geps ... in all is a bit unsettling for confidence in this thing. there are still possibilities that are about 1/3 each: completely missing phase; partial phase; proficient phase. these latter two need to get above 40% and start divorcing from the complete missed phase, because it occurs to me ( anyway ...) that whenever there is no phase, the n/stream is not ever getting it done. just in a crude sense, the sensitivity as to whether there's anything worth really threading for (deterministically) comes down to establishing confidence in the phase proficiency obviously, the agreement by the 12z op euro, yesterday, was hinted and as everyone's seen ... the 0z basically married the 18z and 6z op gfs solutions. cmc largely follows it's ensemble mean - it's an impressive storm potential, no argument. anytime a storm evolves in guidance ...it's like they can't constrain and go right to or nearing apex solutions. but again, this appears so far to be very determined by phasing. if the ens means start coalescing better ( and it wouldn't hurt to get he cmc cluster to wake up even a little )

this is still going to result in a coastal storm this is going back to that middling idea I was talking about earlier without the southern Stream. It’s could still be impressive though.

what’s interesting is altho it’s trying to bipass the N component is stronger/deeper over the plains

this gfs cycle may not be as dramatic

was just reminiscing. on jan 4, 2015 we were facing jack shit in guidance. not sure if the tele's were quite even lit up yet. abysmality ruled the days and bruised up red-headed step children...

i actually wanted to start a long lead 'experiment outlook' thread, that same material i began discussing back on page 30 something of this thread. sometime between xmass and ny... i've been hightlighting 8/9/10/11 several times ever since since, this thread's actually been pretty good at coverage so ... typically, unless it's a thread where that intent and purpose is explicitly that above, I don't typically start a threat-specific date until D7 at that earliest. we're sort of on that boundary - yeah... but i'd like a better bite by the eps mean frankly. and have a chance to analyze it. i suspect we're on the verge of getting that. we'll see. it's a damn big beacon of a signal though

just posted the member position at 168 hours

huge step from the gefs ... not ideal yet, but considering the last three cycles in consecutive order, this gets interesting

how about this beaut is just unique and has never happened before - so there's no way to know what horrors it may have in store .. muah hahahahahaha

negligible comparison... analog loading is roughly 4%

i get it ... i didn't mean to be declarative even tough i typed it like an dink. early jan 1978; now that was a miller A. capturing from an n-stream just seems to pollute the miller A model to me. interesting. i like miller D frankly for phasing

i think there was a storm in the early 1960s that wound up a 960 low and there was thundersnow with 70 mph wind gust - Jerry or Will might know

yeah...perhaps the scalar of the model is doing that at 925 but a-priori interpretation of that sucker in totality ...that would never do that at 925 - sorry. if that approaches get captured and has 516 dam height well closing off a drill bit over ri, the entire region is chalk dust pulverized crystals in 0 visibility, period

this is where the receding NAO becomes an index modal/archembaultian restoring storm.

ah ..gotcha... well, yeah... still, relative to parametric layout/synoptics, that's probably circumstantially the best location for "the punisher blizzard of 2025" - ironically

seriously ...this is tucked [ enter head scratch emoji ] either way ..that's situated position-wise and relative to all available parametrics for maximizing impact that is the b -word incarnate