Typhoon Tip

well... we can look forward to nominally below normal temperatures followed by nominally above normal temperatures, with nominal to no rain through the 23rd or so. hm hm?

40 to 60 here in 3 hours is impressive enough

so 897, eh

wilma's winds maxed 185 mph sustained at one point, too - as did gilbert. ..not to far from milton gilbert had a truly immense circulation envelopment, though. wouldn't be shocked if gilbert owns the ise record by an embarrassing margin. but that's a trinket metric my theory on wilma is that she was probably able to attain such a dramatic pressure fall ( almost 97 mb in 24 hours. might be a ri record ) because she developed and stalled amidst a cag. storms that develop in already neggie base pressure anomalies can end up deeper relatively so. the feb blizzard up here along the sne coast in '78 was never below 982 ... but the surrounding ambience was very elevated at detonation/bombogen phases so it had an upward biased descension curve.

once read an accounting of the labor day event where as the eye traversed the keys ... toilet water began gashing out of toilets, presumably do to sudden drop entering the pressure well/change. it was in the old weather almanac/book published in 1974 i think it was. as the eye passed off the water stopped rising out of the toilets, and this unusual behavior was attributed to the sudden pressure fall in the interior. amazing

180 mph 905 mb

looks on sat like a turn to the ene has already taken place this afternoon. and .. it looks even more intense if that is even possible. but i guess once a tc gets over a buck 50 its playin with shrapnel either way.

theoretic stuff but .. ... if we erc here sooner or later, then it's a larger system that still has to pass over the nw arc of the loop current, as it ascends latitude - consensus at 12z still looks to be tb but we'll see on that. just wondering what a post erc, larger system then does when it hits that ohc reservoir

jesus christ

prayers ...seriously. i mean, i can imagine that conversation last night might have been similar. pending some kind of modeling changes ( and of course there's no crystal ball) but for the time being, this omens as one of those 'special' kind of hells what went on the carolina high country notwithstanding

man that could be a perfect scenario to achieve absolute destruction if that plays out ...looks like - at this time - the consensus puts the right eye wall over the southern inlet to tampa's bay, with the low pressure's core passing over the northern shore. that would drive a near physically maximized storm surge mass, drawn up by regionally historically deep barometric pressure, into a narrowing geographic scenario. wtf as far as the wind, the best would be if an ewr could occur - but that's also no guarantee. typically aft of an ewr, the system spreads it's ise over a larger envelopment, lowering some of the inward pg stress that tends to ease off on the wind throttle. but the pressure could still remain very deep, and with all that wind momentum working sea as it encroaches upon that bay area place head between knees, kiss ass goodbye lucky there's a couple of days - least they got that goin for em

"Wilmaaaa ... stop this crazy thing!"

wow 160

yeah, i was mentioning the physical presentation on satellite has that extremely small eye radii look that noted very deep bombs have had in the past. wilma is great example of that. i wasn't sure at the time if that was not just a mimicry based on incidental cloud morphology but seeing that 32 in 4 hour thing - this may as well be a f'n tornado.

if it were not for the fact that 00z euro-like shenanigans have actually taken place in objective reality ...several times since the year 2000, i'd say the euro's 00z sell for day 7.5 is impressive. but as it were ( and has been ) that model's solution is becoming expected - it seems to be a part of this local era climate signal to do so in late oct! either way, with huge air mass d(types) over climatological shallow time changes, the charts are starting to remind me of that back half of october into early novie 2020. not calling for any anologs ... just sensible weather look. it should be noted that both the ggem and gfs for that d6-8 have at least, albeit transient, whole sale +pnap and cold snap advection synoptics for the eastern gl/ n ov and ne regions. as an aside ... recall 2020 saw a sizable snow anomaly ( rel to climo ) drop through the region on oct 30, and then by the 6-10th of novie was 70 to 80 in the interior.

bullish on the intensity forecast .. now lower category 5 by tuesday evening right now on ir the eye has the dreaded pin-prick look - not sure what the dimensions really are. it may just be an artifact nuance but in and of itself the teeny eye axis surrounded by -90c ring has been noted of very deep bombs. think wilma -

milton 125 mph 945 mb ... drop 9 mb! special advisory posted... ri underway

sort of a warm/cool tussle going on in the guidance after mid week tho. the higher latitude indices are in a warm phase. the pna is in positive mode. ...and the operational guidances are yo-yoing the pattern across the continent about evenly between which one of those larger scaled circumstances will proxy our daily weather from roughly the 10th -20th

watch the mid week cool pop end up so windy that last night is the coolest night in the stretch lol not sayn that's happening just that it'd be apropos for climate-any-excuse-to-not-be-as-cold-as-guidance-complexion-change

still thinking frost or near frost mid week, but we may regress back to a warm up thereafter ... it's difficult with conflicting upstream signals but the wpo/epo is warm mid month and the ao/nao are creeping positive... yet the pna is stubbornly positive. not sure how that's going force the dailies - the wave lengths aren't quite long yet. it's interesting that we're seeing those cold meanders though.

interesting ... it would be about 14 years again until a real october snow either would or chance take place in the general ne ... and since, about 1/2 the years in the last 22 of them have carried that as an at minimum threat if not realization.

well like i was telling Ray a moon or two ago ... there's nothing about the entirety of the state of the climate ( yet ) that suggests a 2015 february can't redux. even 50% of a redux would be a crushing win over these last 7 inches ... uh, i mean years of winters we've been boned by whether the indices align or not ...that's what i'm personally wondering. we may get more of the idiosyncratic or incongruous events from the excessive variability, week to week. heh ... could get the winter quota in 3 storms over 10 days and we're back to cargo shorts

i like how the bay area of san francisco got whacked by 90+ heat. it's very hard to do that there. that w--> e replacement flow through the golden gate straight is very difficult to stop and takes some pretty amazing circumstances to stop it. i've been out there when it was 101 on the eastern shore of the bay and we couldn't get over 70 down by the marina district. on the other side of the penn on the pac side it's in the 60s with pants flapping in the crushing onshore laminar flow. yet i think they've been close to 80 on the sand in this thing

a problem with this is idea above is considering the quasi decoupled tendencies. global patterns appear at times disconnected from enso forcing. this can happen at any time, ..depending on the total integral of influences, usually more transient. but the observations of it have been increasing over the last 10 years with some times even nino modes showing up during and post ninas and vice versa. if 'la nada' prevails this ensuing season, it seems logical that these notable excursion tendencies may also factor and screw up inferred models there, too

research is nearing the codification of a new enso mode ... 'la neutered' ...it's basically huge negative/positive departures, while the wholesale surrounding global medium behaves like which ever it is, it's completely ballless to motivate any response at all