Typhoon Tip

Mmm... I find it personally more difficult do that anymore. Increasingly more difficult to employ the " ... I would think .." approach in any contexts where climate is the artist painting a vision of the future - why? ... duh. Yeah, "I would think" that answer precedes the question. LOL So, we can certainly argue that the climate change is not so far along that we can't regress - but, in your context above, it doesn't sound or come across like regression? It sounds like an expectation of a normalcy, ... perhaps event that "owed" fallacy. Maybe, but frankly, we have to start considering that, out here in the objective reality, cc is not just occurring but the empirical data in the ambit of the science is clearly observing it as accelerating.

This 12z GFS run is about the perfect scenario for the type of pattern. We're unlikely to manifest majors in that high speed compression, so this run is both nearly ideal in placement - given to the narrowing impact corridor - while also probably ceiling intensity under the circumstances

20th quick moving but solid moderate coastal storm impacting along the i-95 corridor - not bad for < 7 days ... like to see the ens mean with a f'n clue

12z gfs better

... that you squandered and failed the test anyway the next day ?

The coherence for an event around the 20th took a bit of step toward less overnight ... however, there's just as many odds that it will return. Personally, i've been of limited confidence in that, or anything specific at all ...really between the 17th and 26th+, for a basic reason: It's a very compressed, high speed medium. events within those also squeeze their impact regions down to narrower corridors. such that the models have to be pretty precise, at a range whence they are higher error anyway (standard performance) to begin with. I'm also personally not a fan of these 6 contoured spv's over lower Hudson Bay, in general. They tend to be really ominous looking but end up short on production - compression is a way in which super-synoptic aspects are in negative negative interference.

well ... if 'off season' and thus 'caught off guard' is going to be invoked as partial in the why-for so many deaths/casualties then cc-attribution science is gonna have a field day with this

this was also apparently so in the copernicus source: "Scientists say with a cooling La Niña instead of last year's El Niño, 2025 is likely to be not quite as hot as 2024. Several predict it will turn out to be the third-warmest. However, the first six days of January—despite frigid temperatures in the U.S. East—averaged slightly warmer and are the hottest start to a year yet, according to Copernicus data...."

a lot of winter can happen after exiting the solar min, too -

post feb 10

3.5 weeks until exit solar min

good! at least one of us can

the buzz saw trough with all that compression is a negative interference factor though …

more personally interested in possible series of moderate events between d 6 and 11 now that the day’s PNA index derivatives came in with a nascent bump in the graphical trajectory.

“climate” is umm changing. heh. seriously though … it seems hard to qualify that date as such when it seems we’re getting year after years piling up where the ballast of weight in both scalar temps and in time … more so prior to that date? I mean I’m asking more that declaring anything

I mean Christ, these aerial vantages provided by 60 Minutes fly-overs are indistinguishable from the heat flash followed by p-wave percussion jolt off an atomic bomb blast It’s shocking similar to Hiroshima

what... no - this has been the case a few times.

what we have is conceptual support here. we're just ( if yet - ) are not producing anything from it, from any of the various ens systems. granted at this range ( 9+ days ...) it's not always the case that materialization has already taken place. big tier events, however, due tend to at least rsvp the longer lead outputs with something. the fact that we are not seeing more could also be flow compression. it relegates the storm types to timing and placement - Walt mentioned needle threading and yeah ...we've been talking about that in here for the last week yadda yadda.. so we agree with him on that. we're not likely to see a curler on the charts in this regime - hell, we actually had some blocking preceding today's near miss, and the speed of the flow still managed to snatch a loss out of the jaws of success. the other aspect i'm a little leery of is the -epo/-pna tandem. it's a risk for cutters... i've seen lots of scenarios where active b-c zones along or off the ec at this range end up back toward buffalo, and we end up in a s drizzle driver. on the fence though because that same velocity soaked hemisphere tends to argue back east with the dx stretching

heh ... nice look on the ggem for the 20/21st

i'm approaching that here 2.75" S-

what a f'ed up week with this thing this was.. turns out the pick 'em part of the thread's title was spot on 2" so far; 25 f

part of my issue with this synoptically in this new form/paradigm with this thread... that's a fairly cold parcel aloft with some vorticity shrapnel rattling around inside as in/stream trundles through. i could see some sneaking meso clumping going on with that.

personally ... their reasoning is sus to me a little. i mean, 2023 with the pan-dimensional thermal burst ...which apparently, never receded... actually took place pre- NINO/ENSO state... so, that tells me that whatever that was, was quite logically not really occurring because' of NINO - there may have been some back and forth augmentation/superposition thereafter, but the thermal burst buries NINO somewhere inside. if that is true, not sure NINA/ENSO is going to be so readily quantitative in the end results, either. this is just how this all looks logically, to me. i'm not sure what mathematics they use to come to the idea that NINO/ENSO's warming led to 2024 - but perhaps it's something like 2023 + (2023 + NINO) = 2024 so 2025 is 2023 + (2023 + NINO) - (2024 + NINA) ...

European and British calculations figure with a cooling La Niña instead of last year's warming El Niño, 2025 is likely to be not quite as hot as 2024. They predict it will turn out to be the third-warmest. However, the first six days of January—despite frigid temperatures in the U.S. East—averaged slightly warmer and are the hottest start to a year yet, according to Copernicus data.

with air so dry and the sun angle still very low ... the 42 won't result in that much actual snow melt, so the pack will ... oh, wait