Typhoon Tip

81 at hfd and bos destroys the previous record for nov 6 set just as recently as 2022, by 5+ degrees f ! orh previous was 72, set 2022, now it is 79 at 1000k elevation. dps at hfd and bos are 55+ ...so this air mass is not just a kinetic fluke. it's 'thermodynamically historic' - if that's a metric i'm just stunned by this one -

it was 80+ in mid february ( february!) twice (separate years) over the decade. it's like these are all 'attributable'

81 at hfd and bos destroys the previous record for nov 6 set just as recently as 2022, by 5+ degrees f ! orh previous was 72, set both 2015 and 2022, now it is 79 at 1000k elevation. dps at hfd and bos are 55+ ...so this air mass is not just a kinetic fluke. it's 'thermodynamically historic' - if that's a metric sorry for the history lesson but i'm just stunned by this one -

that's not what i'm referring to i mean, the unknown product that is being caused ( synergistically...) by cc contribution in recency, surpasses that which is contributory ... 1990 or back whence. which is difficult to ascertain, but a closer approximation to the amount of 'weight' is more now than back then, and can be derived by the slope of the curve at either end. either way, we agree. lol

it's a good start... however, the curve looks like this, ...which means 'slight' weighting is unfortunately hugely inadequate. we need to derive a correction coefficient value that is related to the slope at either end of ...whatever is the actual exponential rise

add whatever decimals if not whole degree(s) correction for cc to historical climate inference ...something no one in here does for some strange reason, and the extremeness is probably an unknown extension. these types of wildly anomalous patterns can happen anyway... but this autumn mmm, proooobably has a cc finger print on it to some form or another via attribution shit, and with that comes the uncertain ranges produced by synergy. that is why it is currently 80 f between hfd and mht up here, with dps over 60! that combination with light wind and near full sun, is hugely unlike the typical warm balm/indian summer thing. which typically features a warm afternoon(s) over parchy dps. the wb temps are still in fact chilly in the climo novembe departure. our wb is about 68 right now, doing so without the canonical southerly gale going on, whence mist and leaning tree tops makes for wcb transport that's in and out in 9 hrs. full sun, light wind 81/63 completely and utterly out of the ordinary by character in 'how' - the symbolic nature of how these things impress are just as important (imho). and in fact, the empirical numbers, of having 60+ for low temperatures in front of this afternoon ... the diurnal mean is something akin to a regional synergistic heat bomb happening as we type. we may not break a high or low temp ( though hfd did ...), but the average is probably never happened on novie 6. this is what those charts, combined with cc coefficient fixing, can do - today exemplifies that? now imagine doing this a couple more times and we're talking about an aggregate scenario that is alarming, period.

64 low now... 78 off the hook anomaly at both ends of the day? it may not be a record high, or low, but the daily mean is going to ceiling. this may qualify as a synergistic heat bomb - we just do it in spring and falls we just almost can't get that done in july around here, because it seems per monitoring ... there's too may ways to interfere with top end heat in summer at our geologic circumstance.

sometimes i feel like there needs to be an Isaac Cline of climate monitoring ... if anyone's ever read the time's best seller, isaac's storm ( which i have ...fantastic accounting ) about the galveston bay disaster in 1900. with terrific descriptive prose brought to imagination and emotion, the cultural life and times of the era, and the lacking real understanding of hurricanes. he describes the indifference of the civlity as the hours neared to their doom. isaac cline was an employee of the then 'weather bureau' ... he took to galloping horseback, frantically screaming up and down the bay side causeway that connected barrier islands, and throughout the town itself ... warning of the impending disaster. flee. flee. we've known for some time that the polar domains are warming some 3x's faster than regions below the 70th parallels, anyway - during this 'hockey stick' acceleration of global warming that has occurred over the last 2 to 3 decades. what if ...this was all prelude to a geological event, one no one thought or even imagined could take place: the whole of the domain surging past some perilous threshold all at once... good sci fi if nothing else. kind of like cline's 'the british are coming! the british are coming!' style campaign would be useful here... back whence, the largely non-suspecting "ignorami" were incredulous to his alerts. didn't end well for civility.

walking around in 76 f air at this time of year ... i'm starting to wonder if i want ridges shifting anywhere

either way ... it should be going the warm way as certain aspect that shall remain diplomatic ... continue to evolve.

jesus, how old do you think i am ? lol 1950

novie was seldom a winter month along the 42nd ... that changed in climate recency. i've lived as far west as kalamazoo mi, vs locally, my whole life. regardless of either end, novie only became a month that serves cryo events more recently decade(s). prior, it was always more like smelling like snow during cold rains ( ...none of this describes whatever your weather culture was up in higher terrain) anyway.. we're passing through the doorway into solar minimum. right on cue ( or is it queue ) the operataional model runs are painting -20C above the 70th parallel. there's cold air around, it's a matter of access. cpc is selling an ao mode relaxation, if not change, from the lofty index. this is apparently dragging the nao as well. these are not yet compelling because at this time of year, ...index forecasting is error prone, almost as stochastic as the daily model at times. we'll have to see. but the epo is negative at some sources ive seen out there between d10 and 2 weeks... putting these together, they're like the light over the horizon even if the winter day is not yet dawned in the models. for now, we enjoy ludicrous warmth followed by seasonal temperatures, before repeating

if we don't get rid of this cc-attributable higher water vapor content at 13 k feet gunk, global warming will cause today to be a cold bust at the sfc

it's interesting. i've given that question some thought in the past ... 'how can the difference between that and just ss stressing... etc' i mean obviously, fractal forcing would register change in sfc water, much, much faster. but, that would likely 'self correct' once and when the former fractal behavior dispersed. then, how much stressing has to happen before masking begins? ... how long after it ends does the correction take... ? goes on just as an intuitive sort of approach ... it would be a neat idea to test the basal oceanic thermal state, establishing what that is... once known, if removing the coupled ocean-atmospheric forcing, does the year 2020+ ocean settle back to a basal state that is warmer, or colder, than the 1990. that delta there might help in determining if there are concurrent physics in play ( which i personally believe there are, anyway ) that really create reality. perhaps of more importance... how much of each. i could see the amoc approaching a disaster scenario, but that approach is being masked by a vastly more readily observable fractal stressing patterns - literally as in, fractals giving the illusion of a structure but are by nature actually ephemeral. so ... it's all neatly explained and amoc isn't that big-o deal. yay! a circumstance that is super-naturally designed to hide the former, too. muah hahahaha LOL ... fits my sci-fi idea about a kind of 'gaia' back ground consciousness, one that is an emergent property of the entire planetary infinitum of multi-variate interacting processes ... giving rise to the synergistic phenomenon. emergence by interacting systems, via a complexity that is only in existence while interaction is occurring, seldom do that, right? like how a 100 billion nerve cells, creating trillions of dendritic connections formulate the ability to write these sentences ( however incomprehensible they are, aside haha) ... why can't the earth know it has cancer, class? well, you know ... human technology has devised a way - if perhaps ultimately proven primitive in the long run ... - to eradicate cancer cells: radiation therapy. hmm warming world is thermal radiation. see where this is kind of going in a "fun" imaginative way? i also like to refer to this as the 'toad in the pan' cleaning operation. the funny thing is, whether that fantasy notion of the gaia awareness is an agenda of an agency or not, slowly turning the oven dial all the way up to the clean end, at such a slow rate to allow human imagination to affectingly explain wy it's not happening ... still works! in the end, we've been scoured out. cancer cured.

i am interested in the cpc handling of the ao(nao) lately thats correlated with mjo space 8 which is also prevalent - that coupling presages -epo… or tends to. not sure if peppeRONI should only apply to enso, but all telecons anyway the rna may be in the way persistence

I’m pretty sure the topic of Scott’s point was “into December“ but sure

Mmm one could justly go ahead and say it’s highly unlikely though - to the extent of new hobby in the meantime when people caboose omissions with “ it doesn’t mean it can’t…” that smacks as psycho babble bargaining. are we really just as scared to accept as we are willing to admit?

It’s all about threshold… I’m pretty sure most papers say “nearing“ tipping points as their warning for the nearby future and they’re still giving it some decades…

... haha, you know what? we need it to happen. we need operation no-winter shock and awe to happen. it may be less potential, yet, along this curve of the cc trajectory, duh. but we need some sort of 'it can't happen,' yet +10 to 15 from d.c. to boston all 3 month, cherry bud swollen, shrubbery greenin' ... 7 days past the solstice type shock and awe. why? it would just be a fantastically entertaining sociological experiment, and subsequent observation, as we sit back and take in all the climate denialism 'explanations' lol given the "phenomenon characters" going on around the world, i don't think it is too far ( as some may think...) beyond the pail to see something like to take place. oh, it would be unlikely to recur the following year, but it's like the one event that is the shot across the bow freak season that is suggestive of a more permanent future. march, 2012, was +8 to +12 at a lot of climo sites in the ov to ne regions that early spring - perhaps 'standing wave' event etc... here we are, 12 years farther up the curve? go ahead, tell me we can't do it for 3. i dare ya. but we really have not had a freak eastern n/a mid latitude 'attribution' event that is very well comparable to all this shit going on around the world. we haven't. not so far as what we're seeing on media, elsewhere. and, i'd like to see the longevity event that isn't a hurricane, frankly. in a era whence populations have become dysphoric, for lack of better word, to information believability in general ... there's always some erosion of faith as to the seriousness when they see said medias. it seems to always be something for a distant shore. anyway, operation no winter shock and awe and then we get to watch denialism squirm. priceless

however the baseline quasi persistent/super synopsis of the hemisphere gets to that Can of who knows what it's SIPing, 500 mb distribution on whole aside, just in quadrature that would have to be a historically positive north atlantic oscillation mode to put it softly. in fact ... so much so that i question any likeliness for that to succeed. the problem with 'SIP's distribution is that it must be all but entirely discounting any negative phase state from ever happening. the nao is a very stochastic field, more so than any other index - few reasons for that.. but that variability therein would have to never be variable, if it is always positive. just sayn' that would be truly remarkable success. i don't doubt ( or support either way ) a +nao predominating season, it's the amount of that. if a 3-mon mean were 70% +, that would probably nearing the top positives in history; that CanSIPs would need it to be there or exceeding that to get a 3-mon mean that coherent. it'll be an interesting to monitor.

https://phys.org/news/2024-10-earth-climate-humanity-net-emissions.html ( https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1353/2024/ )

morning bus stop small talk ... 25 here, coldest so far this forwarding year. lots of still air leaf fall. i love that affect. the sun's morning beams shown sideways with leaves flitting down; they're the only movement or sound. we've had a couple of these cold shock mornings but they were only in 29. 25 is deep enough to really get the fluttering going. interesting that despite the patterns ... on going hemisphere being so warm this autumn we're getting any of this - well timed I suppose.

Until the index significantly change the GFS operational likely to keep flopping right back to warm looks …obliterating those. Probably gonna get periodic inserts of cold just good for upslope and maybe snowmaking but you’re gonna get warm blasted two or three days later and it won’t make it worth it If the index change then fine otherwise check back in after Thanksgiving giggity

you do realize half my intent there was a deep poke and stick wiggle into the hornet's nest muah hahaha

funny was thinkin about this during disk this morning. back in the 1980s or 90s ... a 58 on nov 2 was a huge lucky bonus yummy warm balm bliss day. climate fixing i guess