Typhoon Tip

I was kinda hoping they'd still have snow piles in the foreground of photos while tornadoes are in the background of the same image. But then I figure... no one owns and plows or shovels so -

At least through the first 10 days of Feb ... the spatial representation ( ens chart mean ) over the hemisphere, doesn't lend to bombastic heat. But these means go to 360 beyond, whence the flow looks annular more so than the previous canonical NE ridge with NW flow through Canada - those same ones that were formerly leading to fantastic expectations now poorly realized On the other hand, the numerical teleconnectors have been pretty persistently in a neutral EPO/ -PNA after about Feb 3 -ish. With a statically positive AO(NAO) also in the numerics. This is all presently true in he Euro weeklies, as well as the GEFs extended. So the rip and read of that is a warm tendency; then combining that with recent year's climate behaviors ... doesn't lend to protracting the cold biases/perceptions very deep into February. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that the spatial synoptic graphics begin to present more and more of what these telecons suggest - I've noticed in the past that the former does tend to lead the latter. So those two aspects above are somewhat in conflict, at least early on. I think after Feb 10 there's potential to go either early spring and a rather unceremonious exit, or loading perhaps one last time before doing that anyway. I think being realistic about the end game this year is that there are more reasons to presume some sort of warm occurrences and general earlier exit than not. But this is supposition... There's a subtle impression that some sort of event may set up still in that 28th to 2nd though. May be a Jan thread thing heh

Why do we have to have snow on the ground. "worried about losing ..." It's a'aight. It's a psycho-babble aspect of weather hobbyists and/or formal involvement that I've always personally grappled with trying to understand. I just for me, I agree with the boredom aspect, but it's not a prerequisite for me that it be snow. I could care less if there is snow on the ground - which is odd ... because if we are getting an active pattern, the consequence of that in the winter is often going mean putting snow on the ground. LOL. However, I don't need the active pattern to be snow, per se. Kind of getting into the subjective druthers thing... I think a long duration mix event with interesting ptypes, with dramatic temperature variance across relative small distances/boundaries... Basically, 'events' for me don't need to be snow. I tailor my involvement in this social media to curry to the preferences in here...but truth be told, a wild raining nor-easter with coastal surf spectacles and flood, and/or wind potentials on the coast et al, is all just as thrilling to me.

I wonder if relative to latitude X proximity to sea-level ( 300 ft ave elevations E of the Berks/Whites or so - ) if this is among the coldest air masses on the planet. -10 F here... Judging by the layout of resulting temps and given to the calm wind/decoupling, the -10 is likely topographic/'drainage' assisted. It may seem tongue-in-cheek, but if we're going to be running the warmest 'oh my god' state of climate this that and the other, we can't really be -10 over a large area. This has to be pretty uniquely our circumstance ?

hopefully this line of questioning is for sarcastic jest -

man … that’s 30 secs I can never get back. 384 hrs of 18z gfs completely shut out the whole way.

kinda interesting this event in the south was really very ANA like

OH I'm sure it snow down there at some point in history ... before white man made america great again The only thing really distinctive is that it happen to take place for the first time ... in a modern era of deep fakes and dystopian addiction

I'm starting to wonder if the biggest impact CC will ever have in this region of ours is specifically forcing weather that everyone hates, period. Some places in the world it gets unbearably hot. Some places unbearable cold. Some get crazy floods. Others buried to roof eaves in snow... New England? just suck, within boundaries that are wholly uninteresting. "Attribution science finds the odds of the piece of shitness weather plaguing New England had only a 1::10,000 year chance of boning butts with misery and unfun without CC"

just wait 'till May when that folding mechanism repositions into Canada, and we start BDing snow flurries again while PHX starts setting early heat records ...

i'm hoping that the mounting cost of these idiocratic absurdities, to go along with the shear ludicrous specter of it all, forces a "correction" - leave it at that

The 06z GFS has DPs in the upper 60s there in 10 days ...

-4 Looks like elevation ( of course ) dependent. +5 to -5 type thing

may very well be the coldest it gets this season, and it's timing on essentially the climate nadir interesting

guess we can add this to the list "An eastward propagating Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent MJO historically favors a warm response over the central and eastern CONUS, which would be a welcome change to the frigid conditions experienced recently for much of the Lower 48."

What's the heat like south of the equator so far this djf ?

Yeah, so my intent wasn't a forecast. Obviously forecasts approach unknowable by the time the models get out to 360 hours. That said, there are long lead indicators that show non-zero value in assessing where the risks periods are/whence they may emerge. No one thought heading into the end of January in 2017 that the next month would see an 82 F at FIT, embedded in a week of 68 to 74s. Other Febs in the last 10 years had big warm ups to varying degrees. - those kinds of breaks from normalcy ( if anything ...), it is incumbent to try and identify them ahead.

LOL ... here's a vastly easier prediction: this course work will incense some fights ... let's just enjoy the deep winter vibe out there today for now. haha

Obviously ... buuuut, that's relative to the pattern foot In this case we've benefited from episodic -EPOs. We lose that ... then the other aspects may become dominant. That's not beyond the expectation given the three factors outlined above. We can certainly question whether these advanced lead telecons are true or not, but 'warm ups have been underperforming' loses out to a scaffolding change in the hemisphere. The other question, is that really true re warm ups? I don't recall any warm ups forecast in quite some time. I dunno - maybe I missed one..

Euro's buckin' for a heat burst at the end of the run 582 dm non-hydrostatic hgts nearing the latitude of NYC on Feb 4 is probably nearing some sort of metrical record in that regard. A few days, if even weeks ago, I cited 3 reasons ( conceptual ) why this February was suspect for a shock and awe warm up - I can't find it now but it's back there buried somewhere. It's worth it to try and forecast those as they are a distinctly new phenomenon to our climate, where Feb temp extremes have exceeding 70 if not approaching 80 F have occurred a few times since 2012. Basically it was: (La NIna spring climo) + ( propensity for warm surges in Feb in recent year's worth) + (present warm indicators) (A + B + C)/3 = plenty of justification for suspecting this February as hosting some warm air to put it nicely. The 28th - 2nd may be an inflection in the mass fields ...exiting a cold one. Good time to get some sort of event to take place

mm the fast flow is mitigation though. It's an expression of a negative interference - it's almost like there is a storm budget. If the wind is already raging at larger synoptic scales, there's less available to be expressed in the short scales where the storms are. The large scale is like hogging it all. hahaha. Just trying to metaphor the idea there, but something just did pop. We had a 4-7" event overnight. See the thing is, it's about mitigation - it's not about prevention. Probabilities of getting things to happen is lower, do to narrowing in 'needle thread' .. or basal shear reducing amplitude... salad of offsets. But that doesn't prevent every meal. So yeah...things can happen.

Jokes aside ... the tl;dr version of all that does qualitatively define this +PNA: biased west of the canonical spatial layout. We haven't actually seen a Dakota's ridge axis yet this winter, despite the PNA being numerically positive along a couple of periodicity ... This is part and parcel in why these troughs dampen, or phasing fails. That even after Xmas and just before NYE really should have been a beast but the nuanced/west aspect distorted the field and kept the wave spaces from interacting. Basically ... the west- biased PNA creates a bit of negative interference between the large scale, vs the short wave spaces where S/W propagate. Anyway, why the western ridge is always 20 or deg longitude west of where we need it ... I don't know why. It keeps rematerializing too far west. Maybe it does have something to do with the episodic -EPOs loading cold into an attribution environment - speculation but one thing that keeps jumping out at me is that in order to get cold enough for winter profile events, we can't seem to do it without unusually high gradient. What we need the gradient to be in the hydrostatic thickness, not as much in the non-hydrostatic heights - where the geostrophic velocities are created. This gradient is contributing to shear, and propagation speed of the S/W ... both of which are negative interference for cyclogenic proficiency... and also phasing aspect - well ...we've failed two phase beauts this season, which couldn't survive the model trek from the longer to short term ranges. You could see the phase gradually coming unraveled, day by day, until the whole event was limited.

Gotta look deeper than what's actually materialized on the guidance daily's pictorials/cinema ... ... we've been in a low frequency, but high velocity +PNA the last several weeks - in fact ... it's pretty much thus far defined at seasonal bias. Not sure what happens in February, but such is so to date. Anyway, that type of circulation mode does not lend to predicative skill. In fact, the extended teleconnector projections have been detecting rather later than normal, and/or correcting more so relative to systemic expectation - call it that... In this case, if you really want a popsicle headache ... we have a new +d(PNA) emerging during that period. It's also happening about a 2 or 3 day lag, downwind, of a -EPO. Timing a cold loading prior to one of these poorly modeled +deltas in the PNA ( which determinism is poor in low frequency circulation mode ), means plausibility exists for materialization couched in the time span in question. The index aspects were hinted yesterday, and now it's more coherent. It's also in all three EPS/GEF/GEP. See ... all the above tends to percolate while the operational models are off doing their own thing. Then at some point, the signal gets physically realized and then we see something in the daily d-drip dosing. LOL

Eyeing the 28th - 1 ..2nd as the next period of interest.

5.5" of champagne