Typhoon Tip

unlikely. pinch off book end lows are rare, rarer still ... any model getting them right. and, at this range, most likely has never happened in guidance. the period in question does interestingly feature a -AO/-NAO index modal/couplet, taking place over a persistent -pna. so there's a signal for blocking that is embedded in the background hemisphere above mid latitudes. as is usually case ... the operational models aren't sure exactly where ... bursting positive height (anom) nodes within that general region from eastern archipelago of ne canada east toward iceland the problem is that the actual/realized blocking if/when it materializes, may favor the western or eastern limb of the general region - which either has a quantifiable difference on how it correlates to weather types here in eastern mid latitude n/a the epo is positive throughout - unless that has recently changed... if the epo were to slip negative while the nao is a east based, and the rna remains negative then we warm up again. if the epo is positive and the -nao builds west toward baffin island ( ~), the rising pna toward week two correlates to a cool down chi town to boston - at this time of year, that's a le initiator and then watching ec ( not a book end/pinch off bullshitness) do to the index change/ h.a. thing. the nao could go ahead a verify negative, woo hoo for the models, but still be a problem for winter weather enthusiasts, or ... be everything.

https://phys.org/news/2024-11-plastics-pollution-worsens-impacts-planetary.html

being on the eastern limb of the nao domain matters some, too. in general ( imo ) nothing matters until the +wpo/+epo changes. it's not just this indexes being positive, either... the pac entire manifold is in a double-a type. that's all 'self-reenforcing' and ... heh, gotta say, if there's ever a november set to correlate to an ensuing winter, better than other years, this is a candidate. that's like taking half the planetary system and creating the same brick out of it - it's going to need a pretty big hammer to bust it up...

tomorrow will be pretty harsh though. there's some acclimation bias there, but going from 70 to 80 days, to today's 60 ... to the 44 down here and 33 up there, with near 30mph wind gusts tomorrow, that's not going to be very pleasant. btw, we've made it! we are now in the solar minimum. for the next 91.25 days we are in 'solar winter' one aspect about this time, at our latitude, that can be distinctive is that the advection terms become dominate in the diurnal cycle. if there is no caa or waa, than the sun's feeble ability to correct the air mass is more coherently registerable ... it will offset some, but it just gets subsumed by the advection to the point where it is almost immeasurable - this is the time of year the temperatures can 'bottom out' at 1pm on a sunny day, because the core of a cold air mass times... not that we should ever see anything like this given the state of the world heh

it was 89, 91, 90, 39 on mar 29,30,31, apr 1, 1998, up at umass lowell in ne massachusetts. i know, i was there. and yes... 39 on apr 1 back door front toting cold from the heart of satan swept through the region on the evening of the 31st. it was off the high of the day by 12 or so anyway by 6 pm when it arrived, but we shed 20 f in 10 min and the remaining 20 over the next several hours. greatest 24 hour temperature correction due to specifically, back dooring, i've ever personally experienced or ever really even heard off. 52 big ones. i've seen 40 corrections several times. anyway, that 1998 heat happening now .. it would be interesting.

as far as the dry thing non issue. burning? so what. it's top soil dry with dead seasonal veg and leaf material. rivers still flow and res levels aren't hurting. in one school of thinking, fires here and there are probably overdue around here from a geological perspective, anyway - white man having conquered the land is merely putting dents in Gaia's plans. entering the low evap season that's likely to rain more than snow much to chagrin of the hopefuls and we'll have nice fluffy mowable lawns by mid february

yeah it's ( probably unfortunate to this discussion spirit ) the more likely scenario given the antecedent persistent hemisphere... the other idea isn't completely dead - but the nao has to be modeled correctly. from this range? tall order.

yeah... he knows this, but was just going to add the same statement if we took some random maintenance winter event from 1990 ... a replicated it's machinery in 2024 ... the rain/snow are just going to result greater in 2024.

it's alright ... i'm half shitting everyone. hey, gimme a break - society just succeeded in raising Senator Palpatine from the dead. not feelin' very confident about anyone these days.

hey man, right back at ya i'm not even irritated by that. i grew up with 8 sisters and no brothers - man, i'm way more iron hauled than that. lol i think there ( in all seriousness ) are some psycho babble games folk play though. it's particularly true in this cc shit. but in the end, no one really wants winters to die. i get that. i don't. i particularly loathe the idea of the 46 f winter scape i feel pretty strongly that a winter like that is nearer than many may think or believe, aware ...or are willing to admit in this and other social media. i guess it's social media so . yeah but, we encounter a different sort of 'denial' brand in here. it's not denial because of the same false principalia, politicizing ... etc, of the wholesale society. ours seems specifically related to having to admit that winters are in trouble and our drug supply is dwindling. haha. seriously though - perhaps more trouble (again) than we thingk and the bargaining ( psycho definition ) is eye rollin' sometimes. i'm just a band-aide ripper type of guy. i choose to adult shit eating because one thing about reality i have grudgingly had to adapt to is that it is the greatest gas lighter of it all - all reality does is feed us shit, and evolution provides us dopamine to make us think it's sweet while it's being stuffed down. psychologist call this being well-adaptive. ...see, i'm darkly satirizing this engagement at the moment.

yeah, i was bringing that up yesterday and this morning, the downward correcting ao/nao ... the problem is, the index actual numerical values don't really sub beneath 0.0. they are just correcting down. as they near neutral (0.0) they stall, with their ensemble spreads mop ending open with their means... well, anyway, the operational gfs ( and ggem for that matter) look like they're on the way more amplified side of a poor predictive skill period of time. doesn't lend a lot of confidence. outliers. i hate these -rna/-nao 'hopefuls' ... they're unmanned firehose patterns, where the flop end of the hose is where in the hell does the nao blocking evolve, how much therein (if even so...) then, will there really be a pacific inject of wave mechanics to break in the right spot. blah blah-blah

first real eye-candy run of the year... i'm impressed it took this long. usually we see the gfs float an idea like that by septermber 24th or something much earlier. lol

you're doing what everyone does when they don't like the information - gang up ...lampoon, saying there's no ridicule there or intended, but is like the best gaslighters, you're treating others with disrespect and candy coating it - or thinking your are. you're winters are dimming because of climate change. period

well, if you got another explanation for what is utterly incontrovertibly objective reality ( hint hint ). otherwise ... it might be time to start taking your foot off the incredulity and disrespect throttle and well ... look intelligent.

the pattern the operational runs are selling lately is attempting to abase the recent persistence of western trough ... leading to episodic eastern ridges - causing these warm burst behaviors. that may or may not happen. but suppose it does, it's not exactly headlong into winter that they are offering instead. more like a seasonal oscillatory thing. if i could have my druthers, it would be like yesterday ... every day, until such time that reality commits to winter. if this latter circumstance is not going to happen, the next best thing is 'operation no winter shock and awe' - i can think of a lot of societal positives that could manifest for being shocked and/or awed that way ... but that's another discussion. anyway, i think what's slated to take place over the next 3 weeks is that since the -rna thing/rossby base is really unchanging, and this oscillatory aspect is all apparently being forced by an excursion of -ao/-nao, as soon as these latter alleviate ( or even prove overbearing in the models all along -) the previous dynamic resumes and we return to another period where it could warm burst again. and this paragraph is not based on my druthers. like is said, the -pna and the general +wpo/+epo over-arcing, don't really lend to otherwise. if these show signs of legit change, we'll talk

heh may not be quite that bad, 'mirage' didn't mean to come off dismissive - sorry presently, the pna mode is going negative. for other nerds like me that pay attention to the tedium of telecons may find it interesting that the pna has in fact been positive during this last two weeks of pulsed warm explosions ... yeah, a little weird. so, there's some incongruity going on. okay, in an orthodox sense, the -pna at this time of year fits ( perhaps some lag) -naos . because of this alone, that teleconnects to heights falls between cape cod and new fundland. the models do this thing, though, where they end up going crazy with those set ins that are ... d11's or whatever, with either lows(highs) that pass through those constructive interference regions - which are also ephemeral. it's all timing. it's really when the linear wave function/features, the ones that are coherently trackable in guidance, vs the non-linear wave functions, the 'invisible' constructive vs destructive inteference nodes that are also bubbling in and out of existence, all time well vs poorly. when they time well in models, march 1993, or january 26 1978 or enter flogging here [ ] etc. when they time poorly, march 2001 in the mid atlantic. but, this ( i suspect ) is at least related to why the models attenuate either troughs, or ridges, by some 20 to 30% as features in the outer frames age toward the inner middle range so often. so, the orbital correlation says there's room to lower heights where the models have been toying with that idea, but there's not a lot of baroclinc gradient going on in the wholesale hemisphere - owing probably to lacking anticedent pac circulation mode cutting that off.. maybe i dunno. cc may be involved too. hell. anyway, putting all this together, seems like a candidate to attenuate that ... this is all predicated on there actually being a -nao response to the arriving -pna, too. -nao could also be biased east ... low predictive skill right now

fwiw - https://phys.org/news/2024-11-virtually-hottest-year-eu.html

unlikely

for those of us sticking to the thread's title and intentions, from the mjo desk at cpc "La Niña conditions have been slow to evolve across the Pacific, and may be further disrupted by recent MJO activity. As the suppressed phase of the MJO crosses the Pacific over the next few weeks, however, a strong trade wind surge is favored, which may help further the evolution of the low frequency base state" seeing roni in action there. mjo is probably enhanced by blazing warm ocean-atmosphere coupled western to central pac transit of the wave space ( relative to climo...etc) and that heat flux is probably helping to 'charge' the total wave space strength. --> suppressing the basal frequency/enso. there's other ways but this is just one in which climate plays a role in the daily modulation - see... you can, in a way, anticipate cc in 2-week forecast philosophy. the other aspect in the total qualification of roni is probably the enhanced mid lat gradient causing ambient velocities to speed up. that g-strophic wind surplus then effects the rosby wave stability .. that then acts as a destructive interference wrt the the climate position/correlations of ensos. etc... these are contributor multi-sourced in the increasing frequency of poorly coupled enso states being observed over the past decade(s)

not surprising on the highest 'average' t ... i mentioned that suspicion in the la nina thread when talking to chuck.

yet my fix is even more on point -

know what ... it'd be just as much fun - for me in my morbid fascination ... - if this thread was repurposed for contesting/tracking just how many record warm days this winter becomes all about.

bos pinged 82 fwiw - 6 over the previous record

welp ... guess we can go ahead and torpedo any hope of a front loaded winter -

the thing i find interesting about this is that the last heat burst up over the eastern ridge last week was actually modeled to be more than this, but the sensible/measured result had this one the superior. may be another in a week too.