Typhoon Tip

Warmup by several tomorrow

cat 1 winds are dramatic though. it's exciting, and if one is on vacation ...that's like a having an activity day built in day 1 beach day. day 2 hurricaning. day 3 golf, dinner and bangin' ...etc

still zip from the gfs

wait ... i thought that chamber of comm was 72/53 tomorrow and sat are above that, no ?

nam at least is warmer tomorrow and sat interpreting off the grid looks like light west wind, open sky and about 27 c in the 2 m which aligns well enough with the mos/machine it's like 81/56 with light wind under open blue - couple of top 10ers

in theory .. but man, these operational models are fighting the telecon - which are based on the ensemble mean/derivatives that the operational models are a part of... but a -PNA through ~ D8 or 10 should be ridging more here than it is - which is supposed to lower bulk shear and provide a favorable layout down there. it's like we have the cool node the last 2 weeks.. fixed in position between ohio and nova scotia, and the rest of the hemisphere is flowing around it. regardless of mode ...like it's a cold rock in the stream. anyway, farther e the mdr is suggested by the recent ggem operational runs. the most recent gfs is got an unlikely ri tc in the eastern caribbean's canonical 'dead zone' ... either way, activity matches the anticipation laid out by the mjo desk

it's liable to either snow, or be an atmosphere that supports snow in october at some point

582 hgts too have seen sfc t in the mid 90s at those 500 mb hgts, but because they happen to be associated with cyclonic curvature in that case (next week) the models 'get' to go cool happy lol

summer telecon ftl i suppose. the blend of the various modes argues for a warm setting over eastern mid latitudes of n/a more so than we've been seeing this "cool shot" was an aberration too. relative to those indicators. i guess we got to get lucky sometimes too

51

mmm i'm willing to add that a dearth of viable tw may be related. the identities of them over the intracontinental african region have been weakly looking to me, and the ejects off the typical sierra leone traffic routes have been down in numbers.

"big heat" climo's in pretty steep decline/return rate, anyway. By that we mean a T of at least 95 F I've personally observed that only two or three times by September 7, which is under three weeks from now - little perspective. we could still get some impressive HI's, though. 80s with TDs to 70 isn't too exotic. having said that... this cc -related aspect may modulate some. we could set up a marginal heat look and then get a synergistic goose. but even if so, we are losing sun power

Looks like the 18z GFS tried to go back warm

aside from the fact that if it's like today, in novie, the winter constituency's on suicide watch. it was 72 for a high today - exactly where I said it would be this morning ( shameless ha!). it's 'a little' below normal... sure. but not out of control. hate to play this tired card again, but we're suffering some acclimation loading here -

oh we had a low-grade heat wave sounding in place the whole way. no question some extraneous factors blunted potential there.

just a psycho babble hot take but what's really going on is that a handful ( more or less ...) of regular users ( of this drug haha) covet loathing summer, and only struggle to maintain acceptance. but they're like "spring loaded". at the first sign of anything that doesn't resemble it, it's all safe to come out now - it's gone

some are seeing today and getting carried away

yeah... i'm like, what?

well anyway. gfs has been attempting to foil warm ridges since 2015.. lol it's just that it's really unstable with warm patterns - it sputters with them. it's far more stable with cold/-EPO looks though. not sure why.

meanwhile,

ah yes. the coveted 'front loaded' winter. man, the last one of those ... Decembers of 2008 - 2010 ... ? i think it's been that long. mostly the winters have just been a game of breaking continuity but these cold intrusions don't even seem to be connected to the winter basal state, which comes in later. and when it does, it seems to lack l/w residence with quicker pattern turn overs, and also higher base velocities in the physical wind. folks should read papers like this ( no you per se ...just in general) https://phys.org/news/2023-12-jet-stream-faster-climate.html

it's the other way around most likely. but .. like i said, chicken or egg. i suggest the egg is CC ... and just like the gom and adjacent sw atl basin is also an inferno, so to has this accumulated in the sw-w Pac. it's just that the west pac is larger unobstructed expanse so is larger and more looming, but in either case...

it's not driving the walker cells.

although we've been observing cryo supporting and/or snow achieving air masses in half of the octobers since 2010, despite the -pdo. not sure these have extended down into the m/a.. but there's clearly been a shift toward buckling the patterns and sending cold anomalies under roll-over/ higher latitude u/a warm nodes and causing new england cold bursts earlier. interesting. thing is, they're not like persistent. they're in and out in 7 days, the month sometimes still end up above normal by a tick or two.